Saturday was a bit of a let-down given the Gulbis performance and Monaco's loss to de Schepper. Those two matches aside though, it still wasn't a complete wash out of a day. I had mentioned Tomic could take out Gasquet, and he did @ 3.20. I also said Seppi was worth a value bet and he took out Nishikori @ 3.30 which was a great result as well. Elsewhere, my main loss came on Paire in-play to Kubot. Paire has a terrific backhand and a decent serve, but his forehand is actually beginner level. He won't ever go far in the game with his forehand. And even worse than that - his attitude. He looked like he had absolutely no interest in being there at all, and he said as much afterwards in his interview. He said he needed a holiday and that the courts in Wimbledon are crap basically. I mean here is a top 30 player playing in a Grand Slam against a player outside the top 100 and he didn't even try! Very very frustrating. Gulbis, at least, tried, but he too was appalling. I'm not sure what he was thinking but he didn't win any of the big points, and didn't do anything well whatsoever. My main profit of the day came from backing Tommy Haas a set down in play to beat Feliciano Lopez. He was always going to beat Lopez and once he got over his first set struggles, he coped admirably with the Lopez serve. I was so close to backing Ferrer when he was 2-1 down but I didn't so that was a regret. I was just too afraid of Dolgopolov's potential!!
At this mid-way point of the tournament, I think the men's draw looks like it has been completely flipped upside down. The bottom half which was fraught with danger is now the easy half for Murray while the top half looks more difficult! I still tink it will be the Murray - Djokovic final that I predicted at the start except now I think Murray will win it. In terms of who has impressed me, I would say Murray, Janowicz, Melzer, and Tomic have all impressed me in different ways. Paire, Federer, Nadal, and Gulbis in his last match have all been disappointments.
In terms of the women's draw, Serena is laughing! Azarenka and Sharapova both going out has made her life potentially easier when the final rolls around but she still has a little work to do first. I have been impressed most by Sloane Stephens, Laura Robson, Kaia Kanepi, and Sabine Lisicki, while Sharapova has to have been the biggest disappointment so far. It's still impossible to see Serena not winning this unless there is some monumental upset!
Here is a look at the round of 16 matches and the recommended bets (if any) for each one:
Youzhny v Murray: Murray has won both of the previous encounters between this pair but they can't be read into too much as they happened a good while back and neither were on grass. Along with indoor hard, I would say grass is The General's favourite and best surface and he has been playing very well on it. He led Federer by a set in the Halle final two weeks ago and will give Murray certain problems here. Murray will win, pretty sure about that, but 1.07 is a bit disrespectful to Youzhny! I won't back him to cover the handicap of 7.5 games but it might be worth backing over 3.5 sets @ 15/8 with Paddy Power. Seems pretty good value to me. Murray in 4.
Djokovic v Haas: This match is closer than people think and expect. Tommy Haas trails the head to head 3-5 but leads the grass court head to head 2-0, both from 2009. Firstly, 8/1 is another insult to Tommy Haas. He represents a better chance than that! This will be Djokovic's first proper test in this tournament - he knows he could lose this one. Haas beat him at Miami this year and stands an even better chance on grass. I do expect Djokovic to progess over the 5 set format but Haas will get a set. Back over 3.5 sets again in this one @ 5/4 with the leading oddsmakers. Well worth a bet.
Seppi v Del Potro: Del Potro should have too much for Seppi here and I expect him to add to his 3-0 head to head record over the Italian. Seppi has done so well to get this far but his journey stops here in my opinion. I won't recommend any bet on this one. Delpo probably in 3, maybe 4.
Tomic v Berdych: This is such an interesting match-up on grass. Tomic has been so good this tournament and grass is his best surface for sure. One thing which might halt his progress tomorrow is the fact that he doesn't give himself enough opportunities on return. I think Berdych will give himself more chances to break than Tomic will and that is why I think Berdych will ultimately progress. I like the chances of a five setter in this one @ 3/1 on Betfair and I would say that is probably the best bet for this match.
Ferrer v Dodig: Dodig won't beat David Ferrer, even though grass is the Croat's best surface and the Spaniard's worst. Ferrer hasn't been at his best but has managed to pull it out of the bag, as he does every time. He pretty much always wins against everyone apart form the big 3 or 4 and so 1.40 on Betfair is a backable price for me in this one. Ferrer to progress.
Verdasco v de Schepper: I have strong feelings about this one! I watched de Schepper against Juan Monaco and have come to a conclusion - he is absolutely pathetic. He is probably the worst player to ever get to the last 16 at Wimbledon - and definitely the worst player left in the draw. Monaco was at his very worst not to win that match. He was ahead in pretty much every set and manged to blow it all like only Monaco can. Verdasco, on the other hand, has been ultra-impressive in this tournament. He was very very solid against Gulbis in the last round, and in his previous matches against Malisse and Benneteau. I think Verdasco will win this one at a canter and am recommending him to beat the handicap and to win it in straight sets. Verdasco to win 3-0 is 2.20 on Betfair and that is a recommendation. The handicap is Verdasco -5.5 games and that is 1.80. Both recommended bets against a man who lost in straight sets to Kyle Edmund in Eastbourne the week before last.
Janowicz v Melzer: This is another match where I think there is value to be had. Melzer is no mug on grass and he knows his way around these courts. He has the knack of getting a break when he really needs it and he has far more experience in the latter stages of a Slam than Jerzy Janowicz. I think there could be a possible upset on the cards here. Janowicz has made a case for himself as possibly the most impressive player in the men's draw thus far, but Melzer will be a whole other proposition for him. Melzer is at his best against a big server - he has good records against Isner and Karlovic just to back up that point. He had made positive soundings about this match and knows that if he wins it, then Kubot or Mannarino are all that stand in his way to a place in the Wimbledon semi final. I am going to recommend a bet on Melzer to upset the odds here @ 4.50 on Betfair. The odds are too big for a match where Melzer has a great shot at pulling off the win. Also, the + 2.5 sets market is a certainty in my book and is available @ 4/7
Kubot v Mannarino: Mannarino is one of only two players not to have dropped serve in this tournament yet. I think Lukasz Kubot is only a mediocre player. He has a good serve, good volley, but is nothing special. Mannarino himself is nothing special either but has done well so far and has beaten some decent guys in Andujar, Isner (retirement), and Dustin Brown in straight sets. Kubot on the other hand beat Igor Andreev first up, a guy who hasn't played any tennis in almost a year, got a walkover in round two, and beat Benoit Paire who didn't want to be there in round three. I think he has taken advantage of an incredibly easy draw so far and I think he will be beaten tomorrow. I am going to take Mannarino, the higher-ranked player of the two, @ 2.50 which seems like very good value to me.
Here are my thoughts on the women's matches. Going to keep it a little shorter!
Williams v Lisicki: Lisicki is one of the few women capable of matching Serena to a certain extent on grass. She has good power and great movement. I don't for one second expect her to beat Serena but she does have good grass-court pedigree and she could make a match of this! I don't know if she will get a set but I would fancy her to beat the handicap of 6.5 games and would back that @ even money with some of the bookmakers.
Robson v Kanepi: This is the more intriguing match of the last 16 on the women's side. Both women have been very impressive en route to this stage and I think Robson represents some value here @ 2.30 on Betfair. She has the home crowd, good momentum, and is a potential future great on grass in my opinion. Kanepi won't be beaten easily but a small bet on Robson to exploit the weak movement of the heavy Estonian would be my recommendation. Robson in 3
Radwanska v Pironkova: No bet recommended here. I think Pironkova is more suited to grass but Radwanska is the better player of the two. She is more consistent and I expect her to win, but at odds which are too short for me.
Kvitova v Suarez-Navarro: Petra Kvitova will win this match for sure. She is a former winner here and looks to be coming back to form. If you like backing short odds winners, then Kvitova @ 1.30 looks pretty safe to me.
Vinci v Li Na: Li Na has been quietly making her way through the draw as she so often does at Slams. She should have too much for Vinci in terms of weight of shot and movement on grass and again, if you don't mind taking short odds then I think 1.50 on the Chinese woman represents good value in this one against a player not known for her grass-court prowess.
Bartoli v Knapp: I have very little interest in this one to be honest. I would like to see the young Knapp win but I think Bartoli will have too much for her on grass and @ 1.30 I won't be recommending anything at all in this one. Maybe over 2.5 sets @ 12/5 on Betfair if you fancy a bet!
Flipkens v Pennetta: Pennetta has been good at this tournament. She has done well to win through the previous three rounds on her worst surface, but I do expect her run to be ended here by the Belgian. I think 1.40 might be a little short on Flipkens so no recommended bet in this one.
Puig v Stephens: Stephens will win this one. She is a super, super talent and is probably my favourite female player. She is a future number 1 in the making in my opinion and she should put an end to the young Puerto Rican's impressive run. I think 1.34 is too short to get involved pre-match but keep an eye on it in-play.
Hopefully we will have a few winners tomorrow on what is probably the biggest day of the tennis calender! Enjoy the tennis and best of luck. Check back tomorrow night for Tuesday's action, Over and out :)
Sunday 30 June 2013
Friday 28 June 2013
Wimbledon Third Round Picks - Saturday
We had another fantastic 100% strike rate today with Janowicz obliging against Almagro and Melzer taking out Stakhovsky. Janowicz's performance against Almagro was flawless. He was inspired and will take a lot of stopping in this type of form. Melzer always had a good shot against Stakhovsky - his return of serve is his best asset. The only reason Melzer began this encounter at odds-against was just because Stak took out Federer. The Ukranian was always going to have a bit of a hangover affect from that match and Melzer took full advantage of that. Our only other tip for Friday - Gulbis v Verdasco - has been held off overnight due to rain at SW19 and is first up on Court 3 at 11.30 on Saturday morning. I am still very strong on Gulbis for that one. He has actually shortened quite a lot from the 1.85 I backed and recommended him at into 1.70 which is a good sign. I won't go into it again but you can check out yesterday's post for my reasoning behind that one! There are some days where there are a couple of matches you really fancy, like Friday, and then you get days where you don't really see anything worth backing. Tomorrow is one of those latter days! And I'm not going to bet for the sake of betting.
Saturday: there are loads of matches where there are potentially good bets, but something is holding me back from making a recommendation on it. I am sitting firmly on the fence for a lot of them! I think Youzhny should beat Troicki @1.70, but I hate backing the Russian and Troicki has looked in good shape and actually leads the head to head. Haas will beat Lopez I think but I am not willing to get involved at 1.50 which is a bit too short for my liking. Tomic v Gasquet is an absolutely fascinating match-up on grass. Tomic lost both of their previous encounters, but both on hard court. Grass will be more to Tomic's liking and I wouldn't be too surprised if he took out Gasquet. I like Tomic, even though lots of people don't, and I really like his game. He is 3.15 tomorrow which is a good price. I might have a small bet on this one but I'm not recommending it as Gasquet is the favourite for a reason. It could well be a thriller though! Nishikori and Seppi is another similar one to the Gasquet - Tomic match. Seppi is 3.65 on Betfair and he is not without his chance. Nishikori holds the key to the match - if he plays his best stuff he wins in my opinion but he is too inconsistent for me and if I had to bet on that match I would take Seppi for the value but again, no recommendation. In the Sijsling - Dodig affair, I cannot make my mind up. I don't have any particularly strong opinions on it. I think Dodig might win it but Sijsling is custom-made for grass and knocked out Raonic without dropping a set so this one is a bit of a lottery for me and I won't be backing in it. Paire will beat Kubot but is 1.36 to do so and so no bet on that one either. I think Berdych will beat Anderson, and I think Del Po will beat Zemlja but there are no markets worth backing in those two either. The same goes for Djokovic - Chardy. There is one match where I will recommend a short-priced winner:
Monaco v de Schepper: Juan Monaco is 1.50 to beat Kenny de Schepper. de Schepper is a nothing player. He is 6'8 in height and that is why he has some followers. He has come through Paolo Lorenzi in the first round and got a walkover from Marin Cilic in the second. Monaco beat Bastien Knittel in the first round and beat big-serving Rajeev Ram in the scond round. That will be a good preparation for this de Schepper match. The Frenchman's S&V style of play should be cannon-fodder for Juan Monaco whose return of serve is his best asset. Even on grass Juan Monaco should be too good for Kenny de Schepper and I will happily take him @ 1.50. I thought it would be shorter.
Just to re-emphasise, Gulbis is the main recommendation tomorrow, and if you want another bet, Monaco @ 1/2 if you can get it.Best of luck! Come on Ernie! :)
Saturday: there are loads of matches where there are potentially good bets, but something is holding me back from making a recommendation on it. I am sitting firmly on the fence for a lot of them! I think Youzhny should beat Troicki @1.70, but I hate backing the Russian and Troicki has looked in good shape and actually leads the head to head. Haas will beat Lopez I think but I am not willing to get involved at 1.50 which is a bit too short for my liking. Tomic v Gasquet is an absolutely fascinating match-up on grass. Tomic lost both of their previous encounters, but both on hard court. Grass will be more to Tomic's liking and I wouldn't be too surprised if he took out Gasquet. I like Tomic, even though lots of people don't, and I really like his game. He is 3.15 tomorrow which is a good price. I might have a small bet on this one but I'm not recommending it as Gasquet is the favourite for a reason. It could well be a thriller though! Nishikori and Seppi is another similar one to the Gasquet - Tomic match. Seppi is 3.65 on Betfair and he is not without his chance. Nishikori holds the key to the match - if he plays his best stuff he wins in my opinion but he is too inconsistent for me and if I had to bet on that match I would take Seppi for the value but again, no recommendation. In the Sijsling - Dodig affair, I cannot make my mind up. I don't have any particularly strong opinions on it. I think Dodig might win it but Sijsling is custom-made for grass and knocked out Raonic without dropping a set so this one is a bit of a lottery for me and I won't be backing in it. Paire will beat Kubot but is 1.36 to do so and so no bet on that one either. I think Berdych will beat Anderson, and I think Del Po will beat Zemlja but there are no markets worth backing in those two either. The same goes for Djokovic - Chardy. There is one match where I will recommend a short-priced winner:
Monaco v de Schepper: Juan Monaco is 1.50 to beat Kenny de Schepper. de Schepper is a nothing player. He is 6'8 in height and that is why he has some followers. He has come through Paolo Lorenzi in the first round and got a walkover from Marin Cilic in the second. Monaco beat Bastien Knittel in the first round and beat big-serving Rajeev Ram in the scond round. That will be a good preparation for this de Schepper match. The Frenchman's S&V style of play should be cannon-fodder for Juan Monaco whose return of serve is his best asset. Even on grass Juan Monaco should be too good for Kenny de Schepper and I will happily take him @ 1.50. I thought it would be shorter.
Just to re-emphasise, Gulbis is the main recommendation tomorrow, and if you want another bet, Monaco @ 1/2 if you can get it.Best of luck! Come on Ernie! :)
Thursday 27 June 2013
Wimbledon Round Three Picks - Friday
Absolutely bumper day on Wedensday with three winners from three picks. Seppi @ 2.46 won via retirement after winning the first set 7-5 over Llodra. As usual, with betfair rules, once a set is complete you get paid out - none of this voiding business! Lisicki hammered Vesnina @1.75 and most importantly, Tomic won the main bet @ 1.68 which was a massive price. Still in an area with no WiFi and only my phone for use so a shortish blog again. I have two recommendations for tomorrow, both which I am very confident about.
Gulbis v Verdasco: Ernests Gulbis looked like a man on a mission when taking out Tsonga on Wednesday. Granted Big Jo hurt himself but Gulbis looked to be on fire. I am always happy to oppose Verdasco on any surface, but particularly on grass, and particularly against a proper grass court player like Gulbis. Verdasco surprised me with wins over Malisse and Benneteau to get this far - but neither of those guys hit the ball as big as Gulbis. I think Gulbis is a phenomenal talent - top five material for sure. He is 1.87 to win tomorrow, much longer than I expected, and I will be backing him to win. I would have preferred if this match was on centre but Gulbis should get it done nonetheless.
Janowicz v Almagro: much like the Gulbis bet above, Janowicz has impressed me to no end so far in this tournament. He has looked supreme against Edmund and Stepanek, massive serving and massive groundies as well as some deft touch around the net. He moves pretty well on grass, much better than Almagro and I think 1.80 is too big. He is shortening all the time so get on quick - I can't see JJ being beaten. Someone from this section is going to make the semis - I think it could well be Janowicz.
They are my two recommendations for Thursday. If you fancy it, I think Melzer will beat Federer's conqueror Stakhovsky. He is just a shade of odds against and I think he will bring the Ukrainian back down to earth! Best of luck Friday!
Gulbis v Verdasco: Ernests Gulbis looked like a man on a mission when taking out Tsonga on Wednesday. Granted Big Jo hurt himself but Gulbis looked to be on fire. I am always happy to oppose Verdasco on any surface, but particularly on grass, and particularly against a proper grass court player like Gulbis. Verdasco surprised me with wins over Malisse and Benneteau to get this far - but neither of those guys hit the ball as big as Gulbis. I think Gulbis is a phenomenal talent - top five material for sure. He is 1.87 to win tomorrow, much longer than I expected, and I will be backing him to win. I would have preferred if this match was on centre but Gulbis should get it done nonetheless.
Janowicz v Almagro: much like the Gulbis bet above, Janowicz has impressed me to no end so far in this tournament. He has looked supreme against Edmund and Stepanek, massive serving and massive groundies as well as some deft touch around the net. He moves pretty well on grass, much better than Almagro and I think 1.80 is too big. He is shortening all the time so get on quick - I can't see JJ being beaten. Someone from this section is going to make the semis - I think it could well be Janowicz.
They are my two recommendations for Thursday. If you fancy it, I think Melzer will beat Federer's conqueror Stakhovsky. He is just a shade of odds against and I think he will bring the Ukrainian back down to earth! Best of luck Friday!
Wednesday 26 June 2013
Wimbledon Round Two Picks Thursday
Still in an area with no WiFi connection so another short entry tonight but most importantly, hopefully some decent picks for tomorrow. Today was the craziest day Wimbledon has ever seen. Azarenka, Sharapova, Federer, Tsonga all gone. I backed Federer and Sharapova in play so it was an expensive day! On another day I would have cleaned up. Both missed unmissable chances. Anyway, Janowicz won via retirement but still got paid on Betfair as more than one set was complete. Here are tomorrow's picks:
Seppi v Llodra: I am very surprised that Seppi is available at 2.40 for this. Llodra is 1.60 which is crazy. I would have made Seppi a favourite for this match. Yes Llodra is a grass courter but Seppi has a title on grass and is so solid - too solid for Llodra over five sets in my opinion. Take the Italian at 2.40 - excellent value.
Tomic v Blake: Tomic is a cert for this match and 1.60 is an absolute steal. Blake is not at this level anymore. His hit and hope style won't be up to scratch against the technically sound young Aussie who is more than adept on grass having taken out Querrey in the first round. Not a hope for Blake in my opinion. Take Tomic at 1.60 while it lasts.
Lisicki v Vesnini: I like the 1.75 available on Sabine lisicki in this one. She plays well in Wimbledon, believes in herself, and looks good at the moment. I think she has a bigger game than vesnina and I will back her at 1.75.
They are the tips for tomorrow, hopefully will have some proper internet access then. Best of luck!
Seppi v Llodra: I am very surprised that Seppi is available at 2.40 for this. Llodra is 1.60 which is crazy. I would have made Seppi a favourite for this match. Yes Llodra is a grass courter but Seppi has a title on grass and is so solid - too solid for Llodra over five sets in my opinion. Take the Italian at 2.40 - excellent value.
Tomic v Blake: Tomic is a cert for this match and 1.60 is an absolute steal. Blake is not at this level anymore. His hit and hope style won't be up to scratch against the technically sound young Aussie who is more than adept on grass having taken out Querrey in the first round. Not a hope for Blake in my opinion. Take Tomic at 1.60 while it lasts.
Lisicki v Vesnini: I like the 1.75 available on Sabine lisicki in this one. She plays well in Wimbledon, believes in herself, and looks good at the moment. I think she has a bigger game than vesnina and I will back her at 1.75.
They are the tips for tomorrow, hopefully will have some proper internet access then. Best of luck!
Tuesday 25 June 2013
Wimbledon Round Two picks - Wednesday
Unfortunately this is going to have to be kept to a minimum until I have proper internet access in the morning. In the meantime, after a decent Tuesday thanks to Laura Robson, here are Wednesday's picks:
Benneteau v Verdasco: Benneteau is even money on the exchanges for this match. It's too big in my opinion as grass is his best surface and it is not Verdasco's. I like Benneteau to win it. he has more to offer on this surface than the Spaniard.
Janowicz v Stepanek: janowicz is available at 1.80 for this match and I really like his chances. I would have thought he'd be closer to 1.60 so to get him at 4/5 is a great price. He looked phenomenal against Edmund and I fancy him to ease past a declining Stepanek.
Lu v Murray: I am going to back lu to get a set here at 3/1. He is underestimated and could get a set for sure.
I will update the blog properly in the morning when I get to a WiFi zone. Until then, over and out!
Benneteau v Verdasco: Benneteau is even money on the exchanges for this match. It's too big in my opinion as grass is his best surface and it is not Verdasco's. I like Benneteau to win it. he has more to offer on this surface than the Spaniard.
Janowicz v Stepanek: janowicz is available at 1.80 for this match and I really like his chances. I would have thought he'd be closer to 1.60 so to get him at 4/5 is a great price. He looked phenomenal against Edmund and I fancy him to ease past a declining Stepanek.
Lu v Murray: I am going to back lu to get a set here at 3/1. He is underestimated and could get a set for sure.
I will update the blog properly in the morning when I get to a WiFi zone. Until then, over and out!
Monday 24 June 2013
Wimbledon Round One Picks - Tuesday
Monday @ Wimbledon saw the demise of Rafa Nadal at the hands of the Belgian Steve Darcis, a player who is ranked outside the top 100 but has shown supreme grass skills in the past, notably disposing of Berdych at London 2012. Darcis traded at upwards of 100/1 to beat Rafa but, even looking at it now, there is no way you could have made a strong enough case to back him pre-match. I did fancy him +9.5 games alright but didn't even back that unfortunately. The one man in London smiling today apart from Darcis is Roger Federer. Federer now has a decent passage through to the SF where he will face the winner of the Murray/Tsonga QF. As a result, Federer's odds have been slashed to about 4/1 for the outright market. In terms of Monday's bets - it was a mixed bunch but still a decent day. Both of the women we tipped won - Stephens @ 2.30 and Pennetta @ 2.20, while Melzer obliged @ 3.20 and Troicki obliged at a similar price. Unfortunately, neither Baghdatis nor Edmund could get the one set we required while Stan the Man never looked comfortable against Old Man Hewitt. My main profit of the day came from an in-play bet as it often does, this time in the form of Yen Hsun Lu. I knew Lu was too good for James Ward and when he dropped the first set in a breaker I had a good bet on him @ almost 2.30 which was a nice price considering his SP was 1.46. Lu is a serious operator on grass and Murray will know he has a match on his hands next time out.
Now moving on to Tuesday's tennis, here are my selections for both draws:
Klizan v Berdych: Berdych plays Klizan tomorrow in what is a difficult first test for the Czech. Klizan is an accomplished player in his own right and it's not an easy first round for Berdych. I am pretty sure Berdych will win it and I won't recommend a pre-match bet on the Slovak even though his 17.00 odds are enormous.( He took out Tsonga at last year's US Open if anyone remembers that at similar odds.) I will however recommend a 1.55 lay of Berdych to win 3-0. We need Klizan to get a set or more.
Zeballos v Giraldo: I have no great interest in this one but have to back it because of the price. This is a match between two clay court specialists on a foreign surface. Neither is particularly adept on anything bar clay but I still see this as pretty much a fifty/fifty shot and I can't see why there is such a price differential. Zeballos had a nice win over Thiemo de Bakker at The Boodles exhibition over the weekend and that is good enough to show me he has some grass form going into this one. I like 3.20 odds on a coin toss. Take Zeballos for value.
Petzschner v Przysiezny: I think I will take the experience of Petzschner in this one. The young Pole has come through the qualifiers but Petzschner has good grass court pedigree. He won the doubles with Melzer in the past, has a tough slice, and a very good net game. I will take him to win @ 2.30.
Llodra v Nieminen: I am a big Mika Llodra fan as readers of the blog will know. He is a dying breed in terms of his S&V style which is adept on this surface. However, Nieminen is a good bet here in my opinion. Llodra's game is on the wane and Nieminen has a good passing shot in his artillary. He also has a decent return plus a good delivery of his own. Over three sets I would give Llodra a better chance but over five I like Nieminen's chances. I will be backing him at a very generous 2.58 on Betfair.
L Mayer v Bedene: I think Bedene is nailed on for this one. He is a player who gets things done in a matter-of-fact way with the minimum of fuss. He had match point against Querrey in Queens before losing in a final set tie break and he is a far superior player to his opponent on Tuesday. I will take the 1.63 available on Bedene - it is longer than I thought we would get.
Moving onto the women's draw:
Kirilenko v Robson:This is the match I am most interested in on Tuesday. I think Robson is a terrific price @ 3.20 to beat Maria Kirilenko. Kirilenko has been in the quarters here before and is a terrific player in her own right but I think grass is not her best surface. She doesn't hit as big a ball as Robson in my opinion and that could be massive tomorrow. I think the fact that this is Wimbledon and Robson will be carrying all the home hope is going to get her over the line. It is the pair's first meeting but if Robson had to choose any top 10 opposition for the first round, Kirilenko would be the one. Take Robson to progress @ 3.20. Bumper price.
Kerber v Mattek-Sands:Kerber has never beaten Mattek-Sands but the two victories for the American were both on hard courts and were both a few years back. Kerber has terrific grass court potential, as demonstrated by her run to the semis here last year. She will beat Mattek-Sands, hopefully beat her out the gate, and I think 1.50 is a good price to do so.
Lisicki v Schiavone: Like the Kerber bet, my last bet tomorrow is for another German grass court specialist, Sabine Lisicki to take out clay court specialist Francesca Schiavone. Lisicki can be had at close to 1.50 as well and I think both of those are great bets. You could do far worse than back a German double for the pair of them.
Hopefully the recommendations will come through, or at least the vast majority. Robson will be my main hope for Tuesday. Other match winners on Tuesday should be Djokovic, Ferrer, Del Potro, Haas, Gasquet, Tomic (tough call - a personal bet but not a blog recommendation), Seppi, Kudla, Berankis, Levine, Brands, Struff, Sijsling, Zemlja, Chardy, Raonic, Nishikori, Soeda, Blake, Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov, and Gabashvili. I can't really decide who will win between Lopez and Simon. Simon is my preferred choice, even though he lost in Eastbourne. The wind there was farcical so tomorrow is a new day and I might look into backing Simon, but again, no recommended bet.
Enjoy the tennis and best of luck! :)
Now moving on to Tuesday's tennis, here are my selections for both draws:
Klizan v Berdych: Berdych plays Klizan tomorrow in what is a difficult first test for the Czech. Klizan is an accomplished player in his own right and it's not an easy first round for Berdych. I am pretty sure Berdych will win it and I won't recommend a pre-match bet on the Slovak even though his 17.00 odds are enormous.( He took out Tsonga at last year's US Open if anyone remembers that at similar odds.) I will however recommend a 1.55 lay of Berdych to win 3-0. We need Klizan to get a set or more.
Zeballos v Giraldo: I have no great interest in this one but have to back it because of the price. This is a match between two clay court specialists on a foreign surface. Neither is particularly adept on anything bar clay but I still see this as pretty much a fifty/fifty shot and I can't see why there is such a price differential. Zeballos had a nice win over Thiemo de Bakker at The Boodles exhibition over the weekend and that is good enough to show me he has some grass form going into this one. I like 3.20 odds on a coin toss. Take Zeballos for value.
Petzschner v Przysiezny: I think I will take the experience of Petzschner in this one. The young Pole has come through the qualifiers but Petzschner has good grass court pedigree. He won the doubles with Melzer in the past, has a tough slice, and a very good net game. I will take him to win @ 2.30.
Llodra v Nieminen: I am a big Mika Llodra fan as readers of the blog will know. He is a dying breed in terms of his S&V style which is adept on this surface. However, Nieminen is a good bet here in my opinion. Llodra's game is on the wane and Nieminen has a good passing shot in his artillary. He also has a decent return plus a good delivery of his own. Over three sets I would give Llodra a better chance but over five I like Nieminen's chances. I will be backing him at a very generous 2.58 on Betfair.
L Mayer v Bedene: I think Bedene is nailed on for this one. He is a player who gets things done in a matter-of-fact way with the minimum of fuss. He had match point against Querrey in Queens before losing in a final set tie break and he is a far superior player to his opponent on Tuesday. I will take the 1.63 available on Bedene - it is longer than I thought we would get.
Moving onto the women's draw:
Kirilenko v Robson:This is the match I am most interested in on Tuesday. I think Robson is a terrific price @ 3.20 to beat Maria Kirilenko. Kirilenko has been in the quarters here before and is a terrific player in her own right but I think grass is not her best surface. She doesn't hit as big a ball as Robson in my opinion and that could be massive tomorrow. I think the fact that this is Wimbledon and Robson will be carrying all the home hope is going to get her over the line. It is the pair's first meeting but if Robson had to choose any top 10 opposition for the first round, Kirilenko would be the one. Take Robson to progress @ 3.20. Bumper price.
Kerber v Mattek-Sands:Kerber has never beaten Mattek-Sands but the two victories for the American were both on hard courts and were both a few years back. Kerber has terrific grass court potential, as demonstrated by her run to the semis here last year. She will beat Mattek-Sands, hopefully beat her out the gate, and I think 1.50 is a good price to do so.
Lisicki v Schiavone: Like the Kerber bet, my last bet tomorrow is for another German grass court specialist, Sabine Lisicki to take out clay court specialist Francesca Schiavone. Lisicki can be had at close to 1.50 as well and I think both of those are great bets. You could do far worse than back a German double for the pair of them.
Hopefully the recommendations will come through, or at least the vast majority. Robson will be my main hope for Tuesday. Other match winners on Tuesday should be Djokovic, Ferrer, Del Potro, Haas, Gasquet, Tomic (tough call - a personal bet but not a blog recommendation), Seppi, Kudla, Berankis, Levine, Brands, Struff, Sijsling, Zemlja, Chardy, Raonic, Nishikori, Soeda, Blake, Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov, and Gabashvili. I can't really decide who will win between Lopez and Simon. Simon is my preferred choice, even though he lost in Eastbourne. The wind there was farcical so tomorrow is a new day and I might look into backing Simon, but again, no recommended bet.
Enjoy the tennis and best of luck! :)
Sunday 23 June 2013
Wimbledon Round One Picks - Monday
There are so many potentially good bets to be had on Monday. I am usually drawn to the underdog and I am trying not to get blinded by potentially big wins and good prices. The most important question to ask yourself before you consider a bet on a match is - who do you think will win it? Then look at the price and see is there value. Hopefully we can have a better start to Wimbledon than we did at Roland Garros where week one was bad but week two took off for us. It can be tough picking first round bets - there are 128 matches taking place in the men's and women's singles draws. I am trying to be selective and not get blinded by the sheer volume of bets! Anyway, I will be making selections on a daily basis now. Here are Monday's:
Fognini v Melzer: Jurgen Melzer has a 2-0 winning head to head against Fabio Fognini. Melzer has been in horrendous form this season and I am loathe to recommend him for any bet but he is playing a guy whose worst surface is grass while Melzer should be well suited to it. Melzer serves big and volleys well. Two good assets to have around SW19. Indeed he won the doubles here with Petzschner a few years back so obviously likes it around here. Melzer is available @ 3.20 on the exchanges and it is too big a price for me to resist. I am going to back the Austrian in the hope that his form is returning and he serves as I know he can.
Baghdatis v Cilic: Marcos Baghdatis is one of my favourite ever players. He is a grass court legend and has made a career of playing well on the big stage. As I wrote above, when I ask myself the question - who will win this match? - I have to go with Cilic. He made the final of Queens - was a set up on Murray, and plays well on grass. He is in far better form than Baghdatis, and so, even with the 5.50 available on the Cypriot, I am going to stay away from this one. I would take Baghdatis to get a set if you can get about even money. So the over 3.5 sets market @ even money is worth a bet.
Edmund v Janowicz: This is another one where I am tempted but unsure. Kyle Edmund is 5.50 to beat Janowicz in this one. Janowicz should win it but his form has been dodgy with a couple of injury concerns. Edmund looked impressive at the Aegon International at Eastbourne this week where he took out Kenny de Schepper and pushed Gilles Simon very hard. Edmund could win this one - I am not saying he will. Maybe a small bet on Edmund at 5.50 amd then take over 3.5 sets @ about even money as well.
Kubot v Andreev: Igor Andreev can be had @ 8/1 to beat Lukas Kubot. Kubot is nothing special at all and obviously Andreev has had something up with him. Andreev was a great player even up to two years ago and if he has somehow put whatever was bothering him behind him then he has to be backed @ 8/1 against Lukas Kubot. It's worth a small bet in the hope he turns up! If both were fit, Andreev would be about a 1/3 shot.
Andujar v Mannarino: I am going for Pablo Andujar to beat Adrian Mannarino here. For my Irish readers, Mannarino is the guy who came from a double break down in the fifth set to beat Conor Niland a few years back. He is more suited to grass than Andujar but Andujar is a better player - no doubt about it. At the end of the day, this is still the world number 50 up against the world number 111. I think Andujar is far too big @ 4.00 to beat a guy who is not exactly setting the world alight.
Lacko v Ram: Lukas Lacko is a far far far better tennis player than Rajeev Ram. Lacko hasn't played any grass court tennis this year which is probably why he is 2.20 to win this match. Ram has played qualifiers at 's-Hertogenbosch and Eastbourne and lost to brutal players at each. He is not a particularly good player. Lacko is an inconsistent but incredibly talented player. If he showed up playing his best game, he could win this in easy straights. As it is, I do expect him to win, but not quite in easy straights. Take Lacko @ 2.20
Verdasco v Malisse: This is a grass court specialist against a decent all round player whose worst surface is grass. Malisse has the beatings of Verdasco on grass. The odds are pretty much even money for both. I watched Verdasco lose to Lopez in Eastbourne the other day and wasn't overly impressed. Malisse had a good run at Queens - he almost beat Del Potro and was impressive in that match. He moves very well on this surface and knows how to play the game on grass. I will be backing Malisse for sure in this one. Malisse beat Verdasco at Wimbledon last year in five and I expect something similar on Monday. Maybe Malisse in 4.
Tipsarevic v Troicki: I have had a long and hard think about this one and have come to the conclusion that Troicki is worth a bet of some sort. Troicki is available @ 3.30 on the exchanges. Under usual circumstances I would have gone for Tipsarevic here but he has been woeful this year. Their head to head stands @ 2-1 to Tipsy but Troicki won the Boodles exhibition over the weekend and that will give him good confidence if nothing else. I am going to have some sort of bet on Troicki in this one.
Hewitt v Wawrinka: This is the best match up of the entire first round. I don't know who will win it. The betting is 2.3 Hewitt and 1.7 Stan. Wawrinka lost the 's-Hertogenbosch final to Mahut on Saturday and that could be a negative factor going into this match. Grass is obviously a better surface for Hewitt than it is for Stan but in my book Stan is a much better player than Hewitt is these days. So as you can see, it is a tough one to call. I think the best bet for this one might be to back 5 sets. I think this one has five sets written all over it. You can get over 4.5 sets @ almost 3/1 on Betfair and that is the bet for me. Alternatively, if you want to be a little more adventurous, take Stan to come through in 5 sets @ 7.60.
Moving to the women's on Monday:
Baltacha v Pennetta: I like the experience of the Italian to come through here. Baltacha will be under a lot of home pressume to deliver for the Brits here but I think I would rather have my money on Flavia Pennetta and her odds of 2.08 are acceptable for me, even though grass is not her favourite surface by any means.
Stephens v Hampton: last but not least on Monday, I will take Sloane Stephens to come out on top of Jamie Hampton in a battle of two young up-and-coming Americans. I think Stephens' game should be perfectly suited to grass and she hits a terrific ball. I was impressed with her at Roland Garros and if she can hit the ball that big on clay, then I am excited to see what she can do on grass. I saw Hampton's final against Vesnina at Eastbourne on Monday. While the wind played absolute havoc with the final, I think she will struggle to defend Sloane's weight of shot. Sloane can trouble the best as seen by her victory over Serena in Australia this year.. Take Stephen's to come through @ 2.20.
While all of the above are the only matches I am recommending pre-match on Monday, as always keep an eye on the in-play. Sometimes the best bets can be in-play when a favourite loses the first set or something like that. Just for interest - here are all the guys I think will win tomorrow: Rosol, Robert, Paire, Pospisil, Youzhny, Isner, Rufin, Federer, Almagro, Kuznetsov, Benneteau, Monaco, Nadal, Gulbis, Stepanek, Tsonga, Lu, Mahut, Robredo, and Murray. I am still undecided on Brown v Garcia-Lopez. Brown, if he plays well can win that one for sure and is possibly worth a bet @ almost 3.00 but GGL is in form so I am probably staying away. The last one I can't decide is Kenny de Schepper v Paolo Lorenzi. de Schepper should win because of the surface but he is not a good player. Edmund hammered him last week and the only thing keeping him in the reckoning is his serve and volley game. Lorenzi could be another worth a bet @ 2.80.
Enjoy the tennis and come back to the blog each evening when I will preview the next day. Good luck and enjoy it! :)
Fognini v Melzer: Jurgen Melzer has a 2-0 winning head to head against Fabio Fognini. Melzer has been in horrendous form this season and I am loathe to recommend him for any bet but he is playing a guy whose worst surface is grass while Melzer should be well suited to it. Melzer serves big and volleys well. Two good assets to have around SW19. Indeed he won the doubles here with Petzschner a few years back so obviously likes it around here. Melzer is available @ 3.20 on the exchanges and it is too big a price for me to resist. I am going to back the Austrian in the hope that his form is returning and he serves as I know he can.
Baghdatis v Cilic: Marcos Baghdatis is one of my favourite ever players. He is a grass court legend and has made a career of playing well on the big stage. As I wrote above, when I ask myself the question - who will win this match? - I have to go with Cilic. He made the final of Queens - was a set up on Murray, and plays well on grass. He is in far better form than Baghdatis, and so, even with the 5.50 available on the Cypriot, I am going to stay away from this one. I would take Baghdatis to get a set if you can get about even money. So the over 3.5 sets market @ even money is worth a bet.
Edmund v Janowicz: This is another one where I am tempted but unsure. Kyle Edmund is 5.50 to beat Janowicz in this one. Janowicz should win it but his form has been dodgy with a couple of injury concerns. Edmund looked impressive at the Aegon International at Eastbourne this week where he took out Kenny de Schepper and pushed Gilles Simon very hard. Edmund could win this one - I am not saying he will. Maybe a small bet on Edmund at 5.50 amd then take over 3.5 sets @ about even money as well.
Kubot v Andreev: Igor Andreev can be had @ 8/1 to beat Lukas Kubot. Kubot is nothing special at all and obviously Andreev has had something up with him. Andreev was a great player even up to two years ago and if he has somehow put whatever was bothering him behind him then he has to be backed @ 8/1 against Lukas Kubot. It's worth a small bet in the hope he turns up! If both were fit, Andreev would be about a 1/3 shot.
Andujar v Mannarino: I am going for Pablo Andujar to beat Adrian Mannarino here. For my Irish readers, Mannarino is the guy who came from a double break down in the fifth set to beat Conor Niland a few years back. He is more suited to grass than Andujar but Andujar is a better player - no doubt about it. At the end of the day, this is still the world number 50 up against the world number 111. I think Andujar is far too big @ 4.00 to beat a guy who is not exactly setting the world alight.
Lacko v Ram: Lukas Lacko is a far far far better tennis player than Rajeev Ram. Lacko hasn't played any grass court tennis this year which is probably why he is 2.20 to win this match. Ram has played qualifiers at 's-Hertogenbosch and Eastbourne and lost to brutal players at each. He is not a particularly good player. Lacko is an inconsistent but incredibly talented player. If he showed up playing his best game, he could win this in easy straights. As it is, I do expect him to win, but not quite in easy straights. Take Lacko @ 2.20
Verdasco v Malisse: This is a grass court specialist against a decent all round player whose worst surface is grass. Malisse has the beatings of Verdasco on grass. The odds are pretty much even money for both. I watched Verdasco lose to Lopez in Eastbourne the other day and wasn't overly impressed. Malisse had a good run at Queens - he almost beat Del Potro and was impressive in that match. He moves very well on this surface and knows how to play the game on grass. I will be backing Malisse for sure in this one. Malisse beat Verdasco at Wimbledon last year in five and I expect something similar on Monday. Maybe Malisse in 4.
Tipsarevic v Troicki: I have had a long and hard think about this one and have come to the conclusion that Troicki is worth a bet of some sort. Troicki is available @ 3.30 on the exchanges. Under usual circumstances I would have gone for Tipsarevic here but he has been woeful this year. Their head to head stands @ 2-1 to Tipsy but Troicki won the Boodles exhibition over the weekend and that will give him good confidence if nothing else. I am going to have some sort of bet on Troicki in this one.
Hewitt v Wawrinka: This is the best match up of the entire first round. I don't know who will win it. The betting is 2.3 Hewitt and 1.7 Stan. Wawrinka lost the 's-Hertogenbosch final to Mahut on Saturday and that could be a negative factor going into this match. Grass is obviously a better surface for Hewitt than it is for Stan but in my book Stan is a much better player than Hewitt is these days. So as you can see, it is a tough one to call. I think the best bet for this one might be to back 5 sets. I think this one has five sets written all over it. You can get over 4.5 sets @ almost 3/1 on Betfair and that is the bet for me. Alternatively, if you want to be a little more adventurous, take Stan to come through in 5 sets @ 7.60.
Moving to the women's on Monday:
Baltacha v Pennetta: I like the experience of the Italian to come through here. Baltacha will be under a lot of home pressume to deliver for the Brits here but I think I would rather have my money on Flavia Pennetta and her odds of 2.08 are acceptable for me, even though grass is not her favourite surface by any means.
Stephens v Hampton: last but not least on Monday, I will take Sloane Stephens to come out on top of Jamie Hampton in a battle of two young up-and-coming Americans. I think Stephens' game should be perfectly suited to grass and she hits a terrific ball. I was impressed with her at Roland Garros and if she can hit the ball that big on clay, then I am excited to see what she can do on grass. I saw Hampton's final against Vesnina at Eastbourne on Monday. While the wind played absolute havoc with the final, I think she will struggle to defend Sloane's weight of shot. Sloane can trouble the best as seen by her victory over Serena in Australia this year.. Take Stephen's to come through @ 2.20.
While all of the above are the only matches I am recommending pre-match on Monday, as always keep an eye on the in-play. Sometimes the best bets can be in-play when a favourite loses the first set or something like that. Just for interest - here are all the guys I think will win tomorrow: Rosol, Robert, Paire, Pospisil, Youzhny, Isner, Rufin, Federer, Almagro, Kuznetsov, Benneteau, Monaco, Nadal, Gulbis, Stepanek, Tsonga, Lu, Mahut, Robredo, and Murray. I am still undecided on Brown v Garcia-Lopez. Brown, if he plays well can win that one for sure and is possibly worth a bet @ almost 3.00 but GGL is in form so I am probably staying away. The last one I can't decide is Kenny de Schepper v Paolo Lorenzi. de Schepper should win because of the surface but he is not a good player. Edmund hammered him last week and the only thing keeping him in the reckoning is his serve and volley game. Lorenzi could be another worth a bet @ 2.80.
Enjoy the tennis and come back to the blog each evening when I will preview the next day. Good luck and enjoy it! :)
Wimbledon Draw Analysis & Overall Picks
The 2013 Wimbledon Championships begin tomorrow and I am going to go through the draw quarter by quarter and also give a quick synopsis of the women's draw as well as my outright pick for each. Later this evening I will post Monday's picks. Here goes:
Men's Draw:
The men's draw is one of the most lop-sided slam draws I have ever seen. Apart from Novak Djokovic, pretty much every other outright candidate lies in the bottom half. The British hope Andy Murray can count himself very unlucky to have been landed in a half alongside Roger Federer, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and more importantly, Rafael Nadal. In my opinion, I think there are only three guys who can win this tournament, possibly four. In order, I think Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Tsonga are the only potential winners of this tournament. Djokovic has the best chance, given his draw, and given his performance against Nadal in the final of Roland Garros. If Djokovic can push Nadal as close as he did on clay, then I think he can beat him pretty comfortably on grass. Murray is Murray. Finalist here last year, Olympic champion on these courts, Queens winner last week, and perennial home hope. I think he has every single attribute required to win this title. The only thing holding Murray back may be his draw. To win, he will have to come through Becker, Lu, Mahut, Youzhny, Tsonga, Nadal, and Djokovic. That's a pretty tough draw! Nadal is not as big a threat as those two in my opinion. He can win just because he is Nadal and he is a champion, but I think one of the big guys will hit through him. Finally, Tsonga is such a threat. He can beat anyone on his day but is not quite as consistant as he needs to be. He can beat Federer or Nadal for sure I think but I don't think he will beat Murray when they meet in the quarters. Let's go through the draw:
Q1: Djokovic, as top seed, is obviously housed in quarter one. Along side him in this quarter, he finds Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Tommy Haas, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Gilles Simon. The top half is the weaker half in terms of outright threats but there are still guys who can do serious damage. I see Djokovic emerging at the expense of Tomas Berdych in the QF although Berdych will have his work cut out just to get that far. Two of the more exciting match-ups of round one in this quarter are Simon v Lopez, and Tomic v Querrey.
Q2: This is the weakest quarter of the draw with the top seeds being Ferrer and Del Potro. Ultimately, I see Ferrer making his way out of this quarter, just because the draw isn't too bad for him and he is such a battler. Usually I would say Del Po would beat him on grass, but Del Po was pathetic against Hewitt at Queens so I wouldn't be backing him to go too far here. Plus, Ferrer pushed Murray hard last year and will be well used to the surface by the time their scheduled meeting comes around. Other dangers in this section include Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori. I expect Ferrer to progress, dismissing DelPo in the QF.
Q3: Any guy finding himself in the bottom half this year can count themselves slightly unlucky. The draw has conspired against them and if a winner is to emerge from the bottom half, they will have to overcome the odds to do so. This quarter is tough. Federer is the highest seed in it, but, alas for him, he has had the misfortune of the fifth seed Rafa Nadal landing in his section. Federer has historically struggled against the Spaniard but many people still see Federer as a legitimate contender here. Tsonga was asked to give his tournament winner a week ago and went for the veteran Swiss. To be honest, I don't think Federer stands a chance. I would back him to come out second best against any of Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Tsonga, or Berdych. To win this title, he will have to beat three of those back to back. If the scheduled Federer - Rafa QF materialises, then I will be having a maximum bet on Nadal. Federer is not the man he was and nobody can convince me otherwise. He won Halle last week and looked good doing so. Beating Nadal over five sets is a different story and I don't think he can do it anymore. Other big guns here include Isner, Hewitt, Wawrinka, and Janowicz. I am going for Rafa to take his place in the semis after a QF victory over Federer.
Q4: Andy Murray will have his work cut out to come out of this quarter. Apart from Murray himself, other big players housed here include Tsonga, Benneteau, Malisse, Baghdatis, Cilic, Youzhny, and Gulbis. I do expect Murray to progress, but Tsonga will push him close if their QF match-up materialises. Tsonga himself will have to overcome David Goffin followed by Ernests Gulbis to progress to the third round. Indeed, that Tsonga - Gulbis 2nd round match will be the tie of the round without doubt. Gulbis can win it, as he did against Berdych last year, but he will have has hands full with Jo. I wouldn't write off either of them. Expect Murray to progress.
So, in my book, the semi finals will be Djokovic v Ferrer and Nadal v Murray. I would take Djokovic in 3 and Murray in 4 there, bringing us a Djokovic - Murray final which could go either way. I think Djokovic will have an easier run to the final than Murray and that could be a telling factor if they meet. He is the favourite and rightly so but I think Murray can definitely win it. I won't chose between the two until I see how their form is leading up to it. Paddy Power are offering money back if Murray wins the title so you could do a lot worse than back Djokovic with Paddy Power in which can you can't lose in my book!
Women's draw:
I'm not going into a much detail with the women's draw, but suffice it to say I think Serena will take the trophy again. It would be great to see somebody beat her - it is getting boring watching her win title after title. Her draw is likely to be Zheng in rd 2, followed by Paszek, Lisicki, Kerber, Li Na, and a final v one of Kvitova, Azarenka, or Sharapova. I think it is a pretty tough draw against some very capable grass courters. I also think Kvitova is probably the best outright bet @ bigger than 20/1 as she is a former champ here and can match Serena for power. It looks like Serena will win once again but if I had to back someone, I would do Kvitova and maybe Li Na or one of the Germans Angelique Kerber or Sabine Lisicki.
I will have a blog later with Monday's picks so check back in a few hours. Over and out :)
Men's Draw:
The men's draw is one of the most lop-sided slam draws I have ever seen. Apart from Novak Djokovic, pretty much every other outright candidate lies in the bottom half. The British hope Andy Murray can count himself very unlucky to have been landed in a half alongside Roger Federer, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, and more importantly, Rafael Nadal. In my opinion, I think there are only three guys who can win this tournament, possibly four. In order, I think Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Tsonga are the only potential winners of this tournament. Djokovic has the best chance, given his draw, and given his performance against Nadal in the final of Roland Garros. If Djokovic can push Nadal as close as he did on clay, then I think he can beat him pretty comfortably on grass. Murray is Murray. Finalist here last year, Olympic champion on these courts, Queens winner last week, and perennial home hope. I think he has every single attribute required to win this title. The only thing holding Murray back may be his draw. To win, he will have to come through Becker, Lu, Mahut, Youzhny, Tsonga, Nadal, and Djokovic. That's a pretty tough draw! Nadal is not as big a threat as those two in my opinion. He can win just because he is Nadal and he is a champion, but I think one of the big guys will hit through him. Finally, Tsonga is such a threat. He can beat anyone on his day but is not quite as consistant as he needs to be. He can beat Federer or Nadal for sure I think but I don't think he will beat Murray when they meet in the quarters. Let's go through the draw:
Q1: Djokovic, as top seed, is obviously housed in quarter one. Along side him in this quarter, he finds Tomas Berdych, Richard Gasquet, Tommy Haas, Bernard Tomic, Feliciano Lopez, and Gilles Simon. The top half is the weaker half in terms of outright threats but there are still guys who can do serious damage. I see Djokovic emerging at the expense of Tomas Berdych in the QF although Berdych will have his work cut out just to get that far. Two of the more exciting match-ups of round one in this quarter are Simon v Lopez, and Tomic v Querrey.
Q2: This is the weakest quarter of the draw with the top seeds being Ferrer and Del Potro. Ultimately, I see Ferrer making his way out of this quarter, just because the draw isn't too bad for him and he is such a battler. Usually I would say Del Po would beat him on grass, but Del Po was pathetic against Hewitt at Queens so I wouldn't be backing him to go too far here. Plus, Ferrer pushed Murray hard last year and will be well used to the surface by the time their scheduled meeting comes around. Other dangers in this section include Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori. I expect Ferrer to progress, dismissing DelPo in the QF.
Q3: Any guy finding himself in the bottom half this year can count themselves slightly unlucky. The draw has conspired against them and if a winner is to emerge from the bottom half, they will have to overcome the odds to do so. This quarter is tough. Federer is the highest seed in it, but, alas for him, he has had the misfortune of the fifth seed Rafa Nadal landing in his section. Federer has historically struggled against the Spaniard but many people still see Federer as a legitimate contender here. Tsonga was asked to give his tournament winner a week ago and went for the veteran Swiss. To be honest, I don't think Federer stands a chance. I would back him to come out second best against any of Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Tsonga, or Berdych. To win this title, he will have to beat three of those back to back. If the scheduled Federer - Rafa QF materialises, then I will be having a maximum bet on Nadal. Federer is not the man he was and nobody can convince me otherwise. He won Halle last week and looked good doing so. Beating Nadal over five sets is a different story and I don't think he can do it anymore. Other big guns here include Isner, Hewitt, Wawrinka, and Janowicz. I am going for Rafa to take his place in the semis after a QF victory over Federer.
Q4: Andy Murray will have his work cut out to come out of this quarter. Apart from Murray himself, other big players housed here include Tsonga, Benneteau, Malisse, Baghdatis, Cilic, Youzhny, and Gulbis. I do expect Murray to progress, but Tsonga will push him close if their QF match-up materialises. Tsonga himself will have to overcome David Goffin followed by Ernests Gulbis to progress to the third round. Indeed, that Tsonga - Gulbis 2nd round match will be the tie of the round without doubt. Gulbis can win it, as he did against Berdych last year, but he will have has hands full with Jo. I wouldn't write off either of them. Expect Murray to progress.
So, in my book, the semi finals will be Djokovic v Ferrer and Nadal v Murray. I would take Djokovic in 3 and Murray in 4 there, bringing us a Djokovic - Murray final which could go either way. I think Djokovic will have an easier run to the final than Murray and that could be a telling factor if they meet. He is the favourite and rightly so but I think Murray can definitely win it. I won't chose between the two until I see how their form is leading up to it. Paddy Power are offering money back if Murray wins the title so you could do a lot worse than back Djokovic with Paddy Power in which can you can't lose in my book!
Women's draw:
I'm not going into a much detail with the women's draw, but suffice it to say I think Serena will take the trophy again. It would be great to see somebody beat her - it is getting boring watching her win title after title. Her draw is likely to be Zheng in rd 2, followed by Paszek, Lisicki, Kerber, Li Na, and a final v one of Kvitova, Azarenka, or Sharapova. I think it is a pretty tough draw against some very capable grass courters. I also think Kvitova is probably the best outright bet @ bigger than 20/1 as she is a former champ here and can match Serena for power. It looks like Serena will win once again but if I had to back someone, I would do Kvitova and maybe Li Na or one of the Germans Angelique Kerber or Sabine Lisicki.
I will have a blog later with Monday's picks so check back in a few hours. Over and out :)
Thursday 20 June 2013
's-Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne SF
The highlight today was my justification that the odds were indeed wrong for Seppi v Stepanek. I got Seppi @ 7/4 in a tournament where he has lost once in the last 2 years against a guy who is in serious decline. After a slow start, he hammered Radek Stepanek and now looks like a good outright bet. Elsewhere, Donskoy lost a close one to Mahut - he had set point on the Mahut serve to take it to a deciding set and I still think 3.20 was too big for him. In terms of outright winners now, I like Malisse @ 4/1 in Holland and Seppi @ 7/2 in England.
Friday not only brings about the semis at Eastbourne and 's-Hertogenbosch but, more importantly, it also brings around the Wimbledon draw and I can't wait to see where Nadal lands! I think it's exciting that he is seeded 5 - it will spice things up and I'm happy to see it. I will also be keeping a keen eye out for where Gulbis lands as always and hope he gets a good draw. He is the most dangerous non-seed for sure. I will do a full draw analysis tomorrow night but I think this year's Wimbledon can be won by three and possibly four guys only. Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Tsonga in that order are the only guys who can win Wimbledon in my opinion. I can make the arguement in my head to rule Tsonga out of the reckoning and I think the winner will almost certainly come from the other three. If I had to narrow it down even further, I would take Rafa out. My reasoning for that is if Djokovic can push him to his absolute limits on clay at Roland Garros, then he can absolutely definitely beat him on grass on a surface that suits him far more. Of the three, grass suits Murray the best. He won the Olympics on these courts last year and won Queens last week so I think you could almost call it a two-horse race between himself and Nole. I will leave the rest of that until tomorrow.
Looking at tomorrow's four semis, I am going to recommend a bet in three of them:
Malisse v Mahut: Malisse is on a hot streak at the moment and seems to have his sights set on the title here this week. I think he will beat Nicolas Mahut and his odds of 1.70 on Betfair seem fair enough. Take the supremely talented Belgian to win this one in a battle of two proper grass courters.
Dodig v Lopez: I like Dodig's work ethic - he is a hard grafter and gets the most out of himself. He is the opposite of Feliciano Lopez who is more interested in photo shoots than learning how to hit a backhand! Lopez's serve is the only thing keeping him in this tournament. He has had a few good wins and, to be fair, is in good form, but I like Dodig to progress here. He is so hungry for it and grass is a good surface for him. he serves well, volleys well, covers the net well, and moves well. Take him to win @ 2.40 on the exchanges. His win over Raonic earlier this week will serve him well in handling Lopez's delivery.
Seppi v Simon: Andreas Seppi continues to be under-rated on this surface and, now, again, he begins as the underdog in a match I expect him to win. As I said before, this venue seems to bring out the best in Seppi. Much like his match today against Stepanek, he will have to overturn a bad head to head record to beat Simon for the first time, but I think grass is a good surface for him and he is capable of out-hitting Simon. He volleys far better and serves better too. Take Seppi @ 2.30
Enjoy the tennis. Fingers crossed for a good draw for Gulbis!! :)
Friday not only brings about the semis at Eastbourne and 's-Hertogenbosch but, more importantly, it also brings around the Wimbledon draw and I can't wait to see where Nadal lands! I think it's exciting that he is seeded 5 - it will spice things up and I'm happy to see it. I will also be keeping a keen eye out for where Gulbis lands as always and hope he gets a good draw. He is the most dangerous non-seed for sure. I will do a full draw analysis tomorrow night but I think this year's Wimbledon can be won by three and possibly four guys only. Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and Tsonga in that order are the only guys who can win Wimbledon in my opinion. I can make the arguement in my head to rule Tsonga out of the reckoning and I think the winner will almost certainly come from the other three. If I had to narrow it down even further, I would take Rafa out. My reasoning for that is if Djokovic can push him to his absolute limits on clay at Roland Garros, then he can absolutely definitely beat him on grass on a surface that suits him far more. Of the three, grass suits Murray the best. He won the Olympics on these courts last year and won Queens last week so I think you could almost call it a two-horse race between himself and Nole. I will leave the rest of that until tomorrow.
Looking at tomorrow's four semis, I am going to recommend a bet in three of them:
Malisse v Mahut: Malisse is on a hot streak at the moment and seems to have his sights set on the title here this week. I think he will beat Nicolas Mahut and his odds of 1.70 on Betfair seem fair enough. Take the supremely talented Belgian to win this one in a battle of two proper grass courters.
Dodig v Lopez: I like Dodig's work ethic - he is a hard grafter and gets the most out of himself. He is the opposite of Feliciano Lopez who is more interested in photo shoots than learning how to hit a backhand! Lopez's serve is the only thing keeping him in this tournament. He has had a few good wins and, to be fair, is in good form, but I like Dodig to progress here. He is so hungry for it and grass is a good surface for him. he serves well, volleys well, covers the net well, and moves well. Take him to win @ 2.40 on the exchanges. His win over Raonic earlier this week will serve him well in handling Lopez's delivery.
Seppi v Simon: Andreas Seppi continues to be under-rated on this surface and, now, again, he begins as the underdog in a match I expect him to win. As I said before, this venue seems to bring out the best in Seppi. Much like his match today against Stepanek, he will have to overturn a bad head to head record to beat Simon for the first time, but I think grass is a good surface for him and he is capable of out-hitting Simon. He volleys far better and serves better too. Take Seppi @ 2.30
Enjoy the tennis. Fingers crossed for a good draw for Gulbis!! :)
Wednesday 19 June 2013
Thursday 's-Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne
Wednesday was a mixed bag. Tomic and Brown both won, Rochus was en route to a solid win but retired up 2 sets to 1, and Klizan lost from a set up with Brands being outdone by Garcia-Lopez. After Nadal was tested by Brands in Roland Garros he remarked how was it possible that Brands' ranking be as low as it is. Well, matches like today prove why. He is too inconsistent. Grass should be his ideal surface but he loses to GGL which is hard to fathom.
I have a great feeling about tomorrow and there are a good few matches I am very interested in:
Seppi v Stepanek: When I looked at the odds for this one, I thought there was some mistake. Seppi is 2.70 and Stepanek is 1.60. I would genuinely have them the other way around. Having looked further into this one, the only reason the odds are as they are is because Stepanek has won all four previous encounters between the two. But Seppi loves it in Eastbourne. He won this title in 2011 and then went all the way to the final against Andy Roddick in 2012. He really plays well in the place and showed he is up for it with a good come-from-behind win against Ryan Harrison today. I really like Seppi @ 2.70. I am convinced he will find a way to beat Stepanek who is a player in decline. I will be backing the Italian.
Lopez v Verdasco: I will recommend a small bet on Verdasco for this one, just because he is available @ 6/4 against his best friend on the tour, and a guy who he knows how to play against, owning a 4-2 head to head, including winning their last three encounters. Lopez is more comfortable on this surface but his backhand is pathetic and he won't break Verdasco if Verdasco plays like he did against Dolgopolov and Ramos.
Tomic v Simon: Bernard Tomic is starting to hit form at just the right time. He has the potential to be a fantastic grass courter and he beat Benneteau today as we predicted yesterday. We also tipped him @ 16/1 to win the title and now his odds have been cut to 7/1. I think he will beat Simon on Thursday, who struggled against Kyle Edmund on Wednesday. Simon hates the grass and Tomic will expose it at the price of 1.88
Donskoy v Mahut: Donskoy is the dangerman in Holland this week having already taken out Isner and Robin Haase. For sure he is overpriced at 3.20 to beat Mahut tomorrow. I would have him closer to 2.50 and he is well worth a bet at these odds. In a neutral rally, his game far outweighs Mahut's.
Enjoy the tennis and enjoy the winners which I am confident we will have! :)
I have a great feeling about tomorrow and there are a good few matches I am very interested in:
Seppi v Stepanek: When I looked at the odds for this one, I thought there was some mistake. Seppi is 2.70 and Stepanek is 1.60. I would genuinely have them the other way around. Having looked further into this one, the only reason the odds are as they are is because Stepanek has won all four previous encounters between the two. But Seppi loves it in Eastbourne. He won this title in 2011 and then went all the way to the final against Andy Roddick in 2012. He really plays well in the place and showed he is up for it with a good come-from-behind win against Ryan Harrison today. I really like Seppi @ 2.70. I am convinced he will find a way to beat Stepanek who is a player in decline. I will be backing the Italian.
Lopez v Verdasco: I will recommend a small bet on Verdasco for this one, just because he is available @ 6/4 against his best friend on the tour, and a guy who he knows how to play against, owning a 4-2 head to head, including winning their last three encounters. Lopez is more comfortable on this surface but his backhand is pathetic and he won't break Verdasco if Verdasco plays like he did against Dolgopolov and Ramos.
Tomic v Simon: Bernard Tomic is starting to hit form at just the right time. He has the potential to be a fantastic grass courter and he beat Benneteau today as we predicted yesterday. We also tipped him @ 16/1 to win the title and now his odds have been cut to 7/1. I think he will beat Simon on Thursday, who struggled against Kyle Edmund on Wednesday. Simon hates the grass and Tomic will expose it at the price of 1.88
Donskoy v Mahut: Donskoy is the dangerman in Holland this week having already taken out Isner and Robin Haase. For sure he is overpriced at 3.20 to beat Mahut tomorrow. I would have him closer to 2.50 and he is well worth a bet at these odds. In a neutral rally, his game far outweighs Mahut's.
Enjoy the tennis and enjoy the winners which I am confident we will have! :)
Tuesday 18 June 2013
Wednesday 's-Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne
Tuesday was a fantastic day at 's-Hertogenbosch and Eastbourne with 3 recommendations from 3 plus one retirement. To make things even better, the three winners came in at pretty much 2/1, 2/1, and 5/1 so it was pretty much as good as it gets! Weeks leading up to slams can be so dangerous with upsets and things like that as top players tend to take the foot off a little. For example, if Ferrer meets Malisse at SW19 I know Ferrer will win but I knew the Belgian had a great chance today and was possibly the bet of the year at 5/1! Likewise with Lu and Klizan who both won @ 2/1 even though they represented about a 50/50 chance of winning in my opinion as I said yesterday.
Anyway, let's have a look at Wednesday's action. I think he best matches might come from the final qualifying round at Wimbledon tomorrow but I am struggling to find any prices up anywhere so I will give my recommendations without any prices if I don't have any!
Brands v Garcia-Lopez: I am happy to take Brands here @ 1.90 on the exchanges. His game should be perfect for this surface and he should be more than able to beat GGL on a surface which is probably the Spaniard's worst. Brand's price is higher than I expected.
Benneteau v Tomic: this is a tough match-up. Both players are/have the potential to be excellent on this surface. Tomic won thier previous encounter and has broken a 3 match losing streak by defeating James Ward in straight sets on Tuesday. I think Tomic might prevail @ 2.32 even though I really like Benneteau's game on grass. I actually also like the winner of this one to potentially win the whole tournament outright. I'm going to take Tomic @ 2.32 to build on a good win today and recommend him @ 16/1 outright.
Klizan v Fognini: Martin Klizan at odds against represents a good bet here tomorrow. I suspect by the time the match begins he will be odds on so get on soon! He won their only previous encounter in easy straights and had a great (and easy) win over Viktor Troicki today. Grass should suit Klizan way more than it will suit Fognini, who is pretty bad on this surface to be honest. I will take the Slovak @ 2.10 on Betfair.
Edmunds v Simon: Just because Kyle Edmund is 6/1, he is worth a small bet tomorrow to build on his win over Kenny de Schepper in the first round. One thing we do know is that Edmund will be hugely up for this match while there is a strong possibilty that Simon could just go through the motions. I will have a small stake on Edmund in the hope Simon is tanking!
Brown v Korolev: This is one of those Wimbledon qualifying matches where there are no prices available yet. However, I like Dustin Brown to get the job done on this surface. I imagine the betting will be pretty close as Korolev is a former top 50 player in his own right but if Brown mixes things up like he can and serves & volleys as he did against Jiri Vesely today, then my money is on the Jamaican German to come through.
Rochus v Odesnik: I imagine that Olivier Rochus will begin as favourite for this one even though he is seeded 20th in the qualifying rounds and Odesnik is seeded 4th. I have no doubt that Rochus will win this one. How the organisers seeded him 20th is beyond me as I think he is by far the best player in the entire qualifying draw. Anything from 1.70 and upwards, take Rochus. He is a natural grass courter and will take his place in the main draw.
's-Hertogenbosch outright: Now that Ferrer is out of the running, and giving the draw a closer inspection, I like the 7/1 available on Mike Llodra to take the title here. I thought Paire would be a tough obstacle for him but now that he is over that hurdle, I think he has a clear run to Wawrinka in the semis. Llodra has the game to beat Wawrinka on grass should that match-up materialise and Ferrer was the only one I would have been really worried about. He is a natural on grass and his S&V game is unstoppable when it is on.
Enjoy the tennis tomorrow. If we have a day even nearly as profitable as today then we will be doing very well. Until tomorrow, over and out. Good luck :)
Anyway, let's have a look at Wednesday's action. I think he best matches might come from the final qualifying round at Wimbledon tomorrow but I am struggling to find any prices up anywhere so I will give my recommendations without any prices if I don't have any!
Brands v Garcia-Lopez: I am happy to take Brands here @ 1.90 on the exchanges. His game should be perfect for this surface and he should be more than able to beat GGL on a surface which is probably the Spaniard's worst. Brand's price is higher than I expected.
Benneteau v Tomic: this is a tough match-up. Both players are/have the potential to be excellent on this surface. Tomic won thier previous encounter and has broken a 3 match losing streak by defeating James Ward in straight sets on Tuesday. I think Tomic might prevail @ 2.32 even though I really like Benneteau's game on grass. I actually also like the winner of this one to potentially win the whole tournament outright. I'm going to take Tomic @ 2.32 to build on a good win today and recommend him @ 16/1 outright.
Klizan v Fognini: Martin Klizan at odds against represents a good bet here tomorrow. I suspect by the time the match begins he will be odds on so get on soon! He won their only previous encounter in easy straights and had a great (and easy) win over Viktor Troicki today. Grass should suit Klizan way more than it will suit Fognini, who is pretty bad on this surface to be honest. I will take the Slovak @ 2.10 on Betfair.
Edmunds v Simon: Just because Kyle Edmund is 6/1, he is worth a small bet tomorrow to build on his win over Kenny de Schepper in the first round. One thing we do know is that Edmund will be hugely up for this match while there is a strong possibilty that Simon could just go through the motions. I will have a small stake on Edmund in the hope Simon is tanking!
Brown v Korolev: This is one of those Wimbledon qualifying matches where there are no prices available yet. However, I like Dustin Brown to get the job done on this surface. I imagine the betting will be pretty close as Korolev is a former top 50 player in his own right but if Brown mixes things up like he can and serves & volleys as he did against Jiri Vesely today, then my money is on the Jamaican German to come through.
Rochus v Odesnik: I imagine that Olivier Rochus will begin as favourite for this one even though he is seeded 20th in the qualifying rounds and Odesnik is seeded 4th. I have no doubt that Rochus will win this one. How the organisers seeded him 20th is beyond me as I think he is by far the best player in the entire qualifying draw. Anything from 1.70 and upwards, take Rochus. He is a natural grass courter and will take his place in the main draw.
's-Hertogenbosch outright: Now that Ferrer is out of the running, and giving the draw a closer inspection, I like the 7/1 available on Mike Llodra to take the title here. I thought Paire would be a tough obstacle for him but now that he is over that hurdle, I think he has a clear run to Wawrinka in the semis. Llodra has the game to beat Wawrinka on grass should that match-up materialise and Ferrer was the only one I would have been really worried about. He is a natural on grass and his S&V game is unstoppable when it is on.
Enjoy the tennis tomorrow. If we have a day even nearly as profitable as today then we will be doing very well. Until tomorrow, over and out. Good luck :)
Monday 17 June 2013
Wimbledon qualies, 's-Hertogenbosch & Eastbourne
I needed a few days break from the blog after a run of bad form during the middle of the week in Queens and Halle. Since then, things picked up a bit with Murray prevailing over Cilic in the Queens final, and with a great day at the Aegon International in Eastbourne today. I had Kyle Edmund to beat Kenny de Schepper @ 5/1 and had Albert Ramos to beat James Blake @ 2/1. So, I am feeling refreshed and back on track for the countdown to Wimbledon. Sometimes, when you inevitably hit a barren run, it is best to take a step back and ease off for a few days! I certainly needed it this time and am now looking forward to analysing some of the matches coming up this week.
I won't recommend an outright winner for 's-Hertogenbosch or Eastbourne as I think the week leading up to a Slam is too dodgy. The real tennis this week will come from the outside courts @ Wimbledon where the qualifiers are under way. From an Irish point of view, things got off to a disappointed start today as James McGee lost in straights to Capedeville of Chile. Here are a look at some of the main matches I am interested in tomorrow:
Roger-Vasselin v Lu: I think Yen Hsun Lu is worth a bet @ almost 2/1 here. Grass is his best surface in my opinion. He has had some good runs at Wimbledon and this match is close to a 50/50 toss up so 2.94 on the exchanges for the man from Chinese-Taipei represents good value for a natural grass courter.
Mika Llodra v Benoit Paire: I am a huge Llodra fan and I think grass is possibly his best surface, if not a close second to indoor hard. However, his game is a horrible match-up to Paire for some reason. Perhaps it is that Paire's quality backhand negates the Llodra lefty serve. He certainly seems to get a good read on those Llodra bombs. There is no love lost between these two, after what happened at their last match in Miami. They met twice with Paire winning in Montpellier in the SF there and Llodra gaining revenge in a heated exchange in March. Llodra accused Paire of not showing him enough respect and called him "a little shit" by all accounts which made Paire fly off the handle. So tomorrow could be interesting! I think Paire will be up for it and that could be key. I am happy to take the world number 25 @ 2.30 to beat the world number 52.
Ferrer v Malisse: If both of these guys show up tomorrow, David Ferrer will win. But if Malisse shows up like he did against Del Potro in Queens last week and if Ferrer is slightly off his game in his transition match to grass, then the Belgian has a real chance. Malisse is a class act on grass. He is an unbelievable talent. He is good value tomorrow @ 5.50 to beat Ferrer, whose worst surface is grass. It is worth a small punt in the hope that Malisse plays lights-out, but only that.
Troicki v Klizan: this is another one of those 50/50 encounters where Klizan can be had @ 5/2. These have met only once, on the grass courts of Wimbledon last year where Troicki won in 5 tight sets, so this really will be a close one. Klizan certainly is capable of winning and represents good value @ 5/2 with osme of the leading bookmakers.
These are very few if any men's qualifying matches tomorrow and very few odds up at the moment so we will plough ahead with the above for now. Keep in touch with the blog - I will update daily now until the end of The Championships. Until this time tomorrow, good luck! :)
I won't recommend an outright winner for 's-Hertogenbosch or Eastbourne as I think the week leading up to a Slam is too dodgy. The real tennis this week will come from the outside courts @ Wimbledon where the qualifiers are under way. From an Irish point of view, things got off to a disappointed start today as James McGee lost in straights to Capedeville of Chile. Here are a look at some of the main matches I am interested in tomorrow:
Roger-Vasselin v Lu: I think Yen Hsun Lu is worth a bet @ almost 2/1 here. Grass is his best surface in my opinion. He has had some good runs at Wimbledon and this match is close to a 50/50 toss up so 2.94 on the exchanges for the man from Chinese-Taipei represents good value for a natural grass courter.
Mika Llodra v Benoit Paire: I am a huge Llodra fan and I think grass is possibly his best surface, if not a close second to indoor hard. However, his game is a horrible match-up to Paire for some reason. Perhaps it is that Paire's quality backhand negates the Llodra lefty serve. He certainly seems to get a good read on those Llodra bombs. There is no love lost between these two, after what happened at their last match in Miami. They met twice with Paire winning in Montpellier in the SF there and Llodra gaining revenge in a heated exchange in March. Llodra accused Paire of not showing him enough respect and called him "a little shit" by all accounts which made Paire fly off the handle. So tomorrow could be interesting! I think Paire will be up for it and that could be key. I am happy to take the world number 25 @ 2.30 to beat the world number 52.
Ferrer v Malisse: If both of these guys show up tomorrow, David Ferrer will win. But if Malisse shows up like he did against Del Potro in Queens last week and if Ferrer is slightly off his game in his transition match to grass, then the Belgian has a real chance. Malisse is a class act on grass. He is an unbelievable talent. He is good value tomorrow @ 5.50 to beat Ferrer, whose worst surface is grass. It is worth a small punt in the hope that Malisse plays lights-out, but only that.
Troicki v Klizan: this is another one of those 50/50 encounters where Klizan can be had @ 5/2. These have met only once, on the grass courts of Wimbledon last year where Troicki won in 5 tight sets, so this really will be a close one. Klizan certainly is capable of winning and represents good value @ 5/2 with osme of the leading bookmakers.
These are very few if any men's qualifying matches tomorrow and very few odds up at the moment so we will plough ahead with the above for now. Keep in touch with the blog - I will update daily now until the end of The Championships. Until this time tomorrow, good luck! :)
Thursday 13 June 2013
Halle and Queens Friday
Bad bad bad couple of days. Querrey blew a set lead today against Hewitt in Queens and Gulbis lost a close one to Tommy Haas in Halle. I thought when Querrey won the first set 7-5 he would go on to close it out for sure but he took the foot off the gas and Hewitt pulled through.
I am going to give two more recommendations for tomorrow. Take them at face value - I can't claim to be having a good week of it, but we made a good profit at the French Open and you don't lose all your knowledge overnight so a few bad results won't put us off! By the time Wimbledon comes around we will have a fair idea of who is playing well on the grass or not. Anyway, here are my bets for tomorrow:
Hewitt v Del Potro: I cannot see how Lleyton Hewitt will beat Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow. Beating Sam Querrey is one thing, but there is too much of a gulf in class between these two tomorrow. Del Po beat Xavier Malisse in his first match, who is a serious grass-courter, and followed that up by hammering Dan Evans today 0 & 3. Evans is a grass-courter in his own right and beat Guido Pella and Jarrko Nieminen already this week. Del Po certainly looks to be finding his rythm now and he will end the Hewitt run tomorrow. Hewitt has certainly been rolling back the years with some vintage grass-court play, but let's not overlook the fact that Del Potro beat Djokovic last summer at SW19 to win the Bronze medal for his country at the 2012 Olympic Games. He is available @ 1.54 on Betfair and I think that is the bet of the day tomorrow. He has too much in every department for Lleyton Hewitt.
Haas v Monfils: much like yesterday, I am going to oppose Haas again mainly because there is a lot of value to be had on Monfils. These two have met 3 times with Monfils winning two of them. Monfils hammered Milos Raonic in the last round, 4 & 2, which is a serious achievement on a surface as fast as grass. Haas is undoubtedly in great form but so is La Monf. He had a great run at the French as we all know, and judging by his match against Raonic, he has transferred that form to grass. He seems to match up well against the veteran German having won 2 out of 3 against him, and he is available @ 3.05 which seems very generous. Take Monfils to progress
Hopefully things will go a bit better Friday than Wednesday and Thursday went! Until tomorrow, over and out :)
I am going to give two more recommendations for tomorrow. Take them at face value - I can't claim to be having a good week of it, but we made a good profit at the French Open and you don't lose all your knowledge overnight so a few bad results won't put us off! By the time Wimbledon comes around we will have a fair idea of who is playing well on the grass or not. Anyway, here are my bets for tomorrow:
Hewitt v Del Potro: I cannot see how Lleyton Hewitt will beat Juan Martin Del Potro tomorrow. Beating Sam Querrey is one thing, but there is too much of a gulf in class between these two tomorrow. Del Po beat Xavier Malisse in his first match, who is a serious grass-courter, and followed that up by hammering Dan Evans today 0 & 3. Evans is a grass-courter in his own right and beat Guido Pella and Jarrko Nieminen already this week. Del Po certainly looks to be finding his rythm now and he will end the Hewitt run tomorrow. Hewitt has certainly been rolling back the years with some vintage grass-court play, but let's not overlook the fact that Del Potro beat Djokovic last summer at SW19 to win the Bronze medal for his country at the 2012 Olympic Games. He is available @ 1.54 on Betfair and I think that is the bet of the day tomorrow. He has too much in every department for Lleyton Hewitt.
Haas v Monfils: much like yesterday, I am going to oppose Haas again mainly because there is a lot of value to be had on Monfils. These two have met 3 times with Monfils winning two of them. Monfils hammered Milos Raonic in the last round, 4 & 2, which is a serious achievement on a surface as fast as grass. Haas is undoubtedly in great form but so is La Monf. He had a great run at the French as we all know, and judging by his match against Raonic, he has transferred that form to grass. He seems to match up well against the veteran German having won 2 out of 3 against him, and he is available @ 3.05 which seems very generous. Take Monfils to progress
Hopefully things will go a bit better Friday than Wednesday and Thursday went! Until tomorrow, over and out :)
Wednesday 12 June 2013
Halle and Queens Thursday
Just a quick blog tonight as it's well after the time for my bed! Rosol and Robson were both beaten today which was a bad start. Istomin looks like he will beat Sijsling and is now 1.58 to win that one which has been rain interrupted. I just wanted to post about 2 or 3 matches which really interest me tomorrow.
Gulbis v Haas: probably unsurprisingly I am going for Gulbis in this one. He is 2.90 on Betfair which is a massive price to take out a guy he has beaten in the past. His record is good against Haas and, even though he lost to him twice in the past, both times he lost it was on red clay. When they havce played on hard courts, Gulbis won both times. I think grass favours Gulbis as well, it could well be his best surface, and I think if he shows up and plays even close to his best stuff tomorrow, then he will win. Another advantage for his is that he has had a match here already and Haas has not. Haas had a bye while Gulbis took out Baghdatis in three. Expect Gulbis to progress in a display of power hitting.
Querrey v Hewitt: A lot of people are making Hewitt the favourite for this one, as demonstrated by the 1.88 odds on him on Betfair. I think Querrey is going to beat him and I think people are reading too much into Hewitt's decent display against an average Dimitrov performance today. Querrey took out Bedene on Tuesday and has had a day off today while Hewitt had to play. Hewitt looked nothing short of pathetic against Michael Russell in the first round and I think Querrey will blow him off the court to be honest. Big Sam won the title here in 2010. This is not 2002 anymore folks - Hewitt is about a decade too old. I am going to have pretty much a max bet on Querrey tomorrow. He hit something like 24 aces against Bedende, Hewitt would be lucky to hit a quarter of that number. Those free points add up, and that is the reason grass is Querrey's best surface. 2.10 on Querrey could be the best bet you will get all grass court season.
They are the only two bets I will be recommending tomorrow. Enjoy the tennis. :)
Gulbis v Haas: probably unsurprisingly I am going for Gulbis in this one. He is 2.90 on Betfair which is a massive price to take out a guy he has beaten in the past. His record is good against Haas and, even though he lost to him twice in the past, both times he lost it was on red clay. When they havce played on hard courts, Gulbis won both times. I think grass favours Gulbis as well, it could well be his best surface, and I think if he shows up and plays even close to his best stuff tomorrow, then he will win. Another advantage for his is that he has had a match here already and Haas has not. Haas had a bye while Gulbis took out Baghdatis in three. Expect Gulbis to progress in a display of power hitting.
Querrey v Hewitt: A lot of people are making Hewitt the favourite for this one, as demonstrated by the 1.88 odds on him on Betfair. I think Querrey is going to beat him and I think people are reading too much into Hewitt's decent display against an average Dimitrov performance today. Querrey took out Bedene on Tuesday and has had a day off today while Hewitt had to play. Hewitt looked nothing short of pathetic against Michael Russell in the first round and I think Querrey will blow him off the court to be honest. Big Sam won the title here in 2010. This is not 2002 anymore folks - Hewitt is about a decade too old. I am going to have pretty much a max bet on Querrey tomorrow. He hit something like 24 aces against Bedende, Hewitt would be lucky to hit a quarter of that number. Those free points add up, and that is the reason grass is Querrey's best surface. 2.10 on Querrey could be the best bet you will get all grass court season.
They are the only two bets I will be recommending tomorrow. Enjoy the tennis. :)
Tuesday 11 June 2013
Halle and Queens Wednesday
While Bernard Tomic was busy letting me down in a final set tie-break today against Benny Becker, Juan Martin Del Potro was busy earning me money with a nervy 7-5 final set victory over the ultra-talented Belgian Xavier Malisse. Del Potro was a break down twice in the final set and was also down 5-5 0-40 on his serve in the final set. Anyone who is into tennis betting would know that Malisse is a headcase and is liable to blow up at any time, especially when ahead against a big player. DelPo won the last nine points in a row, as if to emphasise Malisse's implosion. So it was a great rebound from the Tomic loss and was much needed. Tomic was 1-4 down in the third set and gave me great hope when he broke Becker for the first time in the match to level at 4-4 in the decider before losing the final set tie break. In other matches today, Gulbis took out Baghdatis in Halle to keep our outright tip alive there. Gulbis comes up against Tommy Haas next and I will be opposing Haas there when the match arises. At the moment, Gulbis is trading close to 3.00 which is massive! Another honourable mention today has to go to Gael Monfils who took out Milos Raonic in straights which is no mean feat on grass. An impressive result.
Looking at tomorrow's matches, there are a few I am going to recommend:
Robson v Hantuchova: Laura Robson comes up against the Slovak veteran tomorrow on grass at the Aegon Classic. I think the reason Robson is available @ 1.90 is because she has a 0-2 head to head record against Hantuchova. However, Robson is an improving player while Hantuchova is in decline for sure. Grass will suit Robson too, and she will be very eager to make a good start to her grass campaign in front of a home crowd. Robson hits a big ball, and, as long as she avoids the now infamous double-faults which follow her around, I think she will have too much for her opponent. Take Robson @ 1.90
Istomin v Sijsling: I like Denis Istomin to win this one. Himself and the Dutchman have only met once before, at this year's Aussie Open where Istomin came through in 4. I think grass will suit both of them for sure and we could well be seperated by a pair of tie-breaks in this one. Istomin hits a MASSIVE ball and I think as long as his serve is ticking over, Sijsling will really struggle to break him. I think Istomin is so solid in every department and I love his game. He can slice, he serves big, moves well, and has massive ground strokes as well as a good volley. Sijsling serves well, a big lefty serve much like Llodra, but I think he can be lazy and his footwork often leaves a lot to be desired. I am expecting Istomin to break him down and I will take the Uzbeki @ 2.30 on the exchanges as a good value bet.
Rosol v Becker: I am opposing Becker again tomorrow, as I think the only reason he won today was because he had more grass matches under his belt than Tomic. Rosol has a couple of grass matches under his belt now and I think he should have too much for Becker. He serves huge and grass is good for him, as proven by last year's defeat of Rafa at Wimbledon. He is 1.90 on Betfair for this one and that is good enough for me.
There are other matches which are really tempting me tomorrow, like Benneteau to beat Lopez and Nishikori to beat Youzhny but there is something I don't trust about each of them so I will stay away for now. I think Dolgopolov is a good price @ 1.66 to beat Santiago Giraldo, who will struggle to deal with the slice and dice approach of the Ukrainian on this surface. Elsewhere, expect wins for Dimitrov, Murray, Llodra, Cilic, Nieminen, Monfils, and Federer.
As always, keep an eye on the in-play. It's almost more important than the pre-match betting as you can stumble across some serious opportunities, like DelPo today. Until tomorrow, over and out :)
Looking at tomorrow's matches, there are a few I am going to recommend:
Robson v Hantuchova: Laura Robson comes up against the Slovak veteran tomorrow on grass at the Aegon Classic. I think the reason Robson is available @ 1.90 is because she has a 0-2 head to head record against Hantuchova. However, Robson is an improving player while Hantuchova is in decline for sure. Grass will suit Robson too, and she will be very eager to make a good start to her grass campaign in front of a home crowd. Robson hits a big ball, and, as long as she avoids the now infamous double-faults which follow her around, I think she will have too much for her opponent. Take Robson @ 1.90
Istomin v Sijsling: I like Denis Istomin to win this one. Himself and the Dutchman have only met once before, at this year's Aussie Open where Istomin came through in 4. I think grass will suit both of them for sure and we could well be seperated by a pair of tie-breaks in this one. Istomin hits a MASSIVE ball and I think as long as his serve is ticking over, Sijsling will really struggle to break him. I think Istomin is so solid in every department and I love his game. He can slice, he serves big, moves well, and has massive ground strokes as well as a good volley. Sijsling serves well, a big lefty serve much like Llodra, but I think he can be lazy and his footwork often leaves a lot to be desired. I am expecting Istomin to break him down and I will take the Uzbeki @ 2.30 on the exchanges as a good value bet.
Rosol v Becker: I am opposing Becker again tomorrow, as I think the only reason he won today was because he had more grass matches under his belt than Tomic. Rosol has a couple of grass matches under his belt now and I think he should have too much for Becker. He serves huge and grass is good for him, as proven by last year's defeat of Rafa at Wimbledon. He is 1.90 on Betfair for this one and that is good enough for me.
There are other matches which are really tempting me tomorrow, like Benneteau to beat Lopez and Nishikori to beat Youzhny but there is something I don't trust about each of them so I will stay away for now. I think Dolgopolov is a good price @ 1.66 to beat Santiago Giraldo, who will struggle to deal with the slice and dice approach of the Ukrainian on this surface. Elsewhere, expect wins for Dimitrov, Murray, Llodra, Cilic, Nieminen, Monfils, and Federer.
As always, keep an eye on the in-play. It's almost more important than the pre-match betting as you can stumble across some serious opportunities, like DelPo today. Until tomorrow, over and out :)
Monday 10 June 2013
Halle and Queens
After a relatively successful French Open campaign, we now move onto one of the most exciting and anticipated seasons of the tennis calender: the grass court season. Grass courts obviously favour a player who can serve well, can hit big groundstrokes aggressively, can return well, and can play well at the net. Tsonga, Murray, Djokovic,.and Nadal are the four I am expecting great things from this grass court season. I don't see Nadal as a great grass court player but include him because he is a wonderful competitor in general and has won Wimbledon in the past. Federer is a notable omission from the list, given his grass court pedigree but I can't see him winning a slam ever again, and he is a player who will be doing well to make a semi final from now on in my opinion.
This week sees the two main Wimbledon tune-up events take place in Queens Club London and Halle Germany. Let's take a closer look at the two draws before I recommend a bet for tomorrow:
Queens: Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga headline the Queens draw, but, as with Rafa and Nole at the French Open recently, these two best players have been drawn in the same half. To cut to the chase, I expect Murray to win this tournament. He is a former champion here, having also played wonderful tennis to win the Olympics last year and he has another huge advantage over his rivals given the fact that he skipped the French Open in order to rest his back and prepare for a proper assault at the Wimbledon title. Regaining the Queens title is a vital part of his Wimbledon quest and I think he will do it, despite a difficult enough draw. Apart from having to face Jo Tsonga in the semis, Murray will have to stare down the French Open finalist duo of Nicolas Mahut and Mika Llodra one after the other in his first two matches. Both are extremely adept on this surface, Llodra in particular - but Murray is a nightmare opponent for both, given his return and has ability to hit a passing shot from basically anywhere on the court. So, I expect a Murray v Tsonga semi final, and I expect a Berdych v Dimitrov semi final on the other side. I think Dimitrov is another player who should fire on grass, and I have him taking out DelPo if he comes up with his best tennis. I'm going to go out on a limb and say a Dimitrov v Murray final with Murray taking the title. As an outright bet, Paddy Power are giving Murray @15/8 but with the added incentive of your money back if Murray retires from the tournament, which is a great insurance policy given that he skipped the French with a back injury!
Halle: Roger Federer is the top seed in Halle, a place where he is worshipped down to the ground! They have even gone as far as naming a street after him there! Anyway, he will have his hands full to make another successful title run there, given his draw and the fact that nearly all the good guys are in the top half. Richard Gasquet got the best of the draw for sure and in my opinion is a certainty to make the final. From the top half, take your pick: Federer, Haas, Gulbis, Raonic, Baghdatis, Janowicz! So, while Federer can certainly take another Gerry Weber Open crown, I think any of himself, Haas, Gulbis, or Raonic could join Gasquet in the final. Of those, from my point of view, I would of course love to think Gulbis can get there, He is a serious grass court player - it could well be his best surface given his serve and the massive groundies he hits. He did beat Berdych in straight sets in last year's Wimbledon! Anyway, Gulbis is best-priced of the four or five potential champions @ 36.00 on Betfair. He faces a true grass court exponent in the first round when he takes on one of my all-time favourites, Marcos Baghdatos of Cyprus. I see Baghdatis as potentially one of the best players in the world, but he has been a waste of talent pretty much all his career and he has broken my heart over the years! My most memorable Baghdatis victory was when he beat Nadal in Cinci a few years back, 6-4 in the third I think, took me about a week to recover from that one! Anyway, Baggy is probably capable of beating Gulbis in the first round tomorrow but I think he is too inconsistent these days and I will be staying away from that one. To finish my outright synopsis, I will recommend Gasquet @ 7.00 as he will be a finalist for sure in my book and will be about 3.00 at worst case regardless of who he plays in Sunday's final. I will also recommend Gulbis as I think he can progress if he wants to and is worth a small bet @ 36.00. Federer is too short @ 2.30, Haas is 7.80 but I think Gulbis would beat him while Raonic is too short for me @ 10.00.
Take Murray to win Queens @ 15/8
Take Gasquet to win Halle @ 7.00 to lay in the final
Take Gulbis outright Halle winner for a small stake @ 36.00
As a match-bet tomorrow, I only see one bet that interests me. I cannot see why Bernard Tomic is not slightly shorter to beat Benjamin Becker in Queens tomorrow afternoon. Tomic is at his most comfortable on grass - it is his preferred surface. Granted, he retired against Hanescu two sets down in the French, but to be honest, I feel that his hamstring strain might have been an imaginary one and he just wanted to bail out. He plays Benjamin Becker tomorrow, a man who is more than capable of beating himself. Becker looks great one moment but will throw in a loose service game when you least expect it, and I am anticipating that Tomic will come through quite comfortably @ 1.80 on the exchanges. I have this one backed from yesterday @ 1.88 and so, as you can see, he is shortening all the time.
Enjoy Tuesday's tennis! Over and out :)
This week sees the two main Wimbledon tune-up events take place in Queens Club London and Halle Germany. Let's take a closer look at the two draws before I recommend a bet for tomorrow:
Queens: Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga headline the Queens draw, but, as with Rafa and Nole at the French Open recently, these two best players have been drawn in the same half. To cut to the chase, I expect Murray to win this tournament. He is a former champion here, having also played wonderful tennis to win the Olympics last year and he has another huge advantage over his rivals given the fact that he skipped the French Open in order to rest his back and prepare for a proper assault at the Wimbledon title. Regaining the Queens title is a vital part of his Wimbledon quest and I think he will do it, despite a difficult enough draw. Apart from having to face Jo Tsonga in the semis, Murray will have to stare down the French Open finalist duo of Nicolas Mahut and Mika Llodra one after the other in his first two matches. Both are extremely adept on this surface, Llodra in particular - but Murray is a nightmare opponent for both, given his return and has ability to hit a passing shot from basically anywhere on the court. So, I expect a Murray v Tsonga semi final, and I expect a Berdych v Dimitrov semi final on the other side. I think Dimitrov is another player who should fire on grass, and I have him taking out DelPo if he comes up with his best tennis. I'm going to go out on a limb and say a Dimitrov v Murray final with Murray taking the title. As an outright bet, Paddy Power are giving Murray @15/8 but with the added incentive of your money back if Murray retires from the tournament, which is a great insurance policy given that he skipped the French with a back injury!
Halle: Roger Federer is the top seed in Halle, a place where he is worshipped down to the ground! They have even gone as far as naming a street after him there! Anyway, he will have his hands full to make another successful title run there, given his draw and the fact that nearly all the good guys are in the top half. Richard Gasquet got the best of the draw for sure and in my opinion is a certainty to make the final. From the top half, take your pick: Federer, Haas, Gulbis, Raonic, Baghdatis, Janowicz! So, while Federer can certainly take another Gerry Weber Open crown, I think any of himself, Haas, Gulbis, or Raonic could join Gasquet in the final. Of those, from my point of view, I would of course love to think Gulbis can get there, He is a serious grass court player - it could well be his best surface given his serve and the massive groundies he hits. He did beat Berdych in straight sets in last year's Wimbledon! Anyway, Gulbis is best-priced of the four or five potential champions @ 36.00 on Betfair. He faces a true grass court exponent in the first round when he takes on one of my all-time favourites, Marcos Baghdatos of Cyprus. I see Baghdatis as potentially one of the best players in the world, but he has been a waste of talent pretty much all his career and he has broken my heart over the years! My most memorable Baghdatis victory was when he beat Nadal in Cinci a few years back, 6-4 in the third I think, took me about a week to recover from that one! Anyway, Baggy is probably capable of beating Gulbis in the first round tomorrow but I think he is too inconsistent these days and I will be staying away from that one. To finish my outright synopsis, I will recommend Gasquet @ 7.00 as he will be a finalist for sure in my book and will be about 3.00 at worst case regardless of who he plays in Sunday's final. I will also recommend Gulbis as I think he can progress if he wants to and is worth a small bet @ 36.00. Federer is too short @ 2.30, Haas is 7.80 but I think Gulbis would beat him while Raonic is too short for me @ 10.00.
Take Murray to win Queens @ 15/8
Take Gasquet to win Halle @ 7.00 to lay in the final
Take Gulbis outright Halle winner for a small stake @ 36.00
As a match-bet tomorrow, I only see one bet that interests me. I cannot see why Bernard Tomic is not slightly shorter to beat Benjamin Becker in Queens tomorrow afternoon. Tomic is at his most comfortable on grass - it is his preferred surface. Granted, he retired against Hanescu two sets down in the French, but to be honest, I feel that his hamstring strain might have been an imaginary one and he just wanted to bail out. He plays Benjamin Becker tomorrow, a man who is more than capable of beating himself. Becker looks great one moment but will throw in a loose service game when you least expect it, and I am anticipating that Tomic will come through quite comfortably @ 1.80 on the exchanges. I have this one backed from yesterday @ 1.88 and so, as you can see, he is shortening all the time.
Enjoy Tuesday's tennis! Over and out :)
Sunday 9 June 2013
Roland Garros Men's Final
On Saturday Serena took out Sharapova en route to her 16th slam title. She has been so impressive all week, and it was another good showing yesterday. In fairness to Sharapova, she put in a good shift yesterday and actually covered the handicap +4.5 and 5.5 games. She didn't quite take the set I was hoping for despite being up a break in the first.
Looking at the men's final today between Rafa and Ferrer, let me just say how delighted I am to see Ferrer in a grand slam final, particularly the French Open. We did offer him as good outright value at the start of the tournament, but even now you would still have to offer 8.00 to trade him on the exchanges. In a way, the money has been made at this stage and there is little to bet on today. I can see only a Nadal victory, despite Ferrer's excellent showings against him on clay in the past month. Ferrer will probably cover the +7.5 handicap but sometimes he tends to throw in one terrible set against Nadal so I won't be backing that. I do think, however, that there is some value to be had in the set betting market. I fancy Ferrer to take one set anyway and so you can lay Rafa 3-0 @ 1.90 meaning you win the bet with any of the five other possible scorelines that don't read 3-0 Nadal.
I hope Ferrer puts in a good day at the office today. He is getting just rewards for his game and his improvement over the past few years. I would dearly love to see him win today but I don't think it can happen. Hopefully he gets a set or two anyway and we have a competitive final. Thanks for reading. Roll on the grass season! Over and out :-)
Looking at the men's final today between Rafa and Ferrer, let me just say how delighted I am to see Ferrer in a grand slam final, particularly the French Open. We did offer him as good outright value at the start of the tournament, but even now you would still have to offer 8.00 to trade him on the exchanges. In a way, the money has been made at this stage and there is little to bet on today. I can see only a Nadal victory, despite Ferrer's excellent showings against him on clay in the past month. Ferrer will probably cover the +7.5 handicap but sometimes he tends to throw in one terrible set against Nadal so I won't be backing that. I do think, however, that there is some value to be had in the set betting market. I fancy Ferrer to take one set anyway and so you can lay Rafa 3-0 @ 1.90 meaning you win the bet with any of the five other possible scorelines that don't read 3-0 Nadal.
I hope Ferrer puts in a good day at the office today. He is getting just rewards for his game and his improvement over the past few years. I would dearly love to see him win today but I don't think it can happen. Hopefully he gets a set or two anyway and we have a competitive final. Thanks for reading. Roll on the grass season! Over and out :-)
Friday 7 June 2013
Roland Garros Women's Final
Men's semi-final day continued our terrific form in the second week of Roland Garros with another perfect day. Ferrer easily disposed of Tsonga @ 1.75 which was terrific value as we stated yesterday. The match of the day though was undoubtedly the classic duel of Rafa Nadal v Novak Djokovic. I said yesterday that this would be a supremely close tie with Nadal emerging in 5 and that is exactly what transpired. Nadal was good pre-match value @ 1.70 and he was immense in the final stages when he needed to be. Djokovic put in a fantastic shift as well but Nadal just used all of his experience and big-match bottle to pull through when it mattered most.
Looking forward to the women's final tomorrow, I think Serena will win it, but I think it could be closer than expected. Sharapova last beat Serena Williams win 2004 and that is not a pretty stat from her point of view. Williams has been phenomenal this week, only once dropping a set, against Svetlana Kuznetsova, when we predicted the Russian to beat the handicap. Sharapova is available @ odds against tomorrow +5.5 games but I think I would rather recommend a small stake on over 2.5 sets @ 3.40 on Betfair. It is very possible that Sharapova could take a set tomorrow. I think she believes in herself so much these days and to be fair, she has been fantastic this fortnight too. Serena could well be nervous and I do think Sharapova moves well enough and hits the ball big enough to take a set. The key to her game is to serve well and be able to dictate the rally from the very first ball. If she can get Serena on the move then she has a chance. If she can't find her first serves and allows Serena to pummel her second serve every time then Sharapova stands no chance. Serena's weakness for me seems obvious: her movement. It is up to Maria Sharapova to exploit that. Take Serena to come through in 3, something like 6-2 4-6 6-3
I will preview the men's final between Rafa Nadal and DAVID FERRER tomorrow! Until then, over and out :)
Looking forward to the women's final tomorrow, I think Serena will win it, but I think it could be closer than expected. Sharapova last beat Serena Williams win 2004 and that is not a pretty stat from her point of view. Williams has been phenomenal this week, only once dropping a set, against Svetlana Kuznetsova, when we predicted the Russian to beat the handicap. Sharapova is available @ odds against tomorrow +5.5 games but I think I would rather recommend a small stake on over 2.5 sets @ 3.40 on Betfair. It is very possible that Sharapova could take a set tomorrow. I think she believes in herself so much these days and to be fair, she has been fantastic this fortnight too. Serena could well be nervous and I do think Sharapova moves well enough and hits the ball big enough to take a set. The key to her game is to serve well and be able to dictate the rally from the very first ball. If she can get Serena on the move then she has a chance. If she can't find her first serves and allows Serena to pummel her second serve every time then Sharapova stands no chance. Serena's weakness for me seems obvious: her movement. It is up to Maria Sharapova to exploit that. Take Serena to come through in 3, something like 6-2 4-6 6-3
I will preview the men's final between Rafa Nadal and DAVID FERRER tomorrow! Until then, over and out :)
Thursday 6 June 2013
Roland Garros Men's Semi-Finals
The women's semi-finals went exactly as we predicted with Serena coming through easily against Sara Errani and Maria Sharapova winning in three sets against Vika Azarenka. Sharapova began the match @ 1.95 favourite and we recommeded that along with over 2.5 sets @ 5/4 with the bookies. Serena will have a tougher test on her hands when she faces Sharapova on Saturday but we will discuss that tomorrow. In the meantime, let's take a look at tomorrow's men's semi-finals.
Nadal v Djokovic: this is a match up between the two best tennis players in the world. It is a match which should, in reality, be the final here. But the draw threw a spanner in the works and here we are with a gigantic semi final. I have thought long and hard about this and I have come up with my conclusion: Nadal is going to win. I can't look past him. It's on clay. It's his tournament. It's best of five. And Nadal is the greatest clay courter of all time. Clay is more about sustaining a very good level as opposed to hitting spectacular winnners. When thinking about this match from a betting point of view, I thought, "who would I rather have my money riding on?" and the answer is, unquestionably, Rafa Nadal. I thought before the tournament that the odds would be more like 1/2 and 6/4 should this match-up arise, but Nadal is available @ 1.70 on Betfair and I think it is slightly too big. I think we will have a terrific contest and I think it will be four or five sets whoever wins it. I'm going to take Nadal. He has the clay experience and all the wins on this court. I think the hot conditions will help Nadal and allow the ball to bounce higher which plays into his hands. Nadal to progress in 5.
Ferrer v Tsonga: this match is a must-bet in my opinion. I cannot see how Ferrer will be beaten on clay by Jo Tsonga. This is five sets and it is Ferrer's best surface by far. Behind Nadal and Djokovic, David Ferrer is the best player in the world on clay. His form has been relentless and he is a clay courter to the core. Tsonga will find things very different against Ferrer than he did in his last round against Federror.. Ferrer will contribute very very little in terms of unforced errors and his percentage play is so good. Like all great Spaniards, he pretty much takes the net out of the equation on the forehand side, and his backhand is so solid. Tsonga has the more explosive shots for sure, including the serve, but I would take solid over explosive any day in a best of 5 set clay match. Ferrer in 4. Back him to win @ 1.75.
Enjoy the tennis and hopefully it will be a winning day. Over and out :)
Nadal v Djokovic: this is a match up between the two best tennis players in the world. It is a match which should, in reality, be the final here. But the draw threw a spanner in the works and here we are with a gigantic semi final. I have thought long and hard about this and I have come up with my conclusion: Nadal is going to win. I can't look past him. It's on clay. It's his tournament. It's best of five. And Nadal is the greatest clay courter of all time. Clay is more about sustaining a very good level as opposed to hitting spectacular winnners. When thinking about this match from a betting point of view, I thought, "who would I rather have my money riding on?" and the answer is, unquestionably, Rafa Nadal. I thought before the tournament that the odds would be more like 1/2 and 6/4 should this match-up arise, but Nadal is available @ 1.70 on Betfair and I think it is slightly too big. I think we will have a terrific contest and I think it will be four or five sets whoever wins it. I'm going to take Nadal. He has the clay experience and all the wins on this court. I think the hot conditions will help Nadal and allow the ball to bounce higher which plays into his hands. Nadal to progress in 5.
Ferrer v Tsonga: this match is a must-bet in my opinion. I cannot see how Ferrer will be beaten on clay by Jo Tsonga. This is five sets and it is Ferrer's best surface by far. Behind Nadal and Djokovic, David Ferrer is the best player in the world on clay. His form has been relentless and he is a clay courter to the core. Tsonga will find things very different against Ferrer than he did in his last round against Federror.. Ferrer will contribute very very little in terms of unforced errors and his percentage play is so good. Like all great Spaniards, he pretty much takes the net out of the equation on the forehand side, and his backhand is so solid. Tsonga has the more explosive shots for sure, including the serve, but I would take solid over explosive any day in a best of 5 set clay match. Ferrer in 4. Back him to win @ 1.75.
Enjoy the tennis and hopefully it will be a winning day. Over and out :)
Wednesday 5 June 2013
Roland Garros Womens' Semi-Finals
I said at the end of yesterday's blog to keep an eye on the four favourites on Wednesday and back them if they went down a set or a break as I was confident each would progress. As it transpired, this is exactly what happened when Maria Sharapova traded @ 2.20 after the loss of the first set to Jelena Jankovic on a 6-0 scoreline. I backed Sharapova at that stage and she was always in the lead from there on out. After that win, I used the profits to back Nadal -7.5 games against Wawrinka @ 2.06 on the exchanges. Nadal eventually ran out a 6-2 6-3 6-1 winner and so rounded off another very very good day!
The other matches on Wednesday saw Vika Azarenka overcome the women's number one in the looks department - Maria Kirilenko while on the men's side Novak Djokovic overcame Tommy Haas in straights as I said yesterday.
So, this brings us on to Thursday of week two at Roland Garros. The four remaining men will have their feet up for the day, while the women take centre stage and play for the right to be in Saturday's final. They are the four best women in the draw and it is going to be a good day's tennis. The first semi final sees Serena Williams come up against Sara Errani. Errani is at her best on clay, while Serena is at her worst, but even Serena at her worst should have too much for Errani and I can't see anything but a Serena win. The handicap is +6.5 games for Errani but, even though I think she will cover that, I am not completely confident and so won't be backing it. Semi final number two is where my interest lies and I think Maria Sharapova, the defending champion here, represents good value @ 1.86 to beat Vika Azarenka. Sharapova actually trails their head to head 5-7 but I think on clay she has the edge over Azarenka. This will be a screech-fest with the decibel levels of a jumbo jet, but I think Sharapova has the necessary tools to take down Vika on this surface. She hits a bigger ball and serves better too. I will back Sharapova, almost certainly in three sets. I will also recommend total sets over 2.5 with PP @ 5/4 as I am certain this one will go the distance.
Tomorrow I will preview the men's semis. I am convinced Ferrer will beat Tsonga, but I don't know about the other one yet.... I need a day to think about it!
Thanks for reading. Over and out :)
The other matches on Wednesday saw Vika Azarenka overcome the women's number one in the looks department - Maria Kirilenko while on the men's side Novak Djokovic overcame Tommy Haas in straights as I said yesterday.
So, this brings us on to Thursday of week two at Roland Garros. The four remaining men will have their feet up for the day, while the women take centre stage and play for the right to be in Saturday's final. They are the four best women in the draw and it is going to be a good day's tennis. The first semi final sees Serena Williams come up against Sara Errani. Errani is at her best on clay, while Serena is at her worst, but even Serena at her worst should have too much for Errani and I can't see anything but a Serena win. The handicap is +6.5 games for Errani but, even though I think she will cover that, I am not completely confident and so won't be backing it. Semi final number two is where my interest lies and I think Maria Sharapova, the defending champion here, represents good value @ 1.86 to beat Vika Azarenka. Sharapova actually trails their head to head 5-7 but I think on clay she has the edge over Azarenka. This will be a screech-fest with the decibel levels of a jumbo jet, but I think Sharapova has the necessary tools to take down Vika on this surface. She hits a bigger ball and serves better too. I will back Sharapova, almost certainly in three sets. I will also recommend total sets over 2.5 with PP @ 5/4 as I am certain this one will go the distance.
Tomorrow I will preview the men's semis. I am convinced Ferrer will beat Tsonga, but I don't know about the other one yet.... I need a day to think about it!
Thanks for reading. Over and out :)
Tuesday 4 June 2013
Roland Garros Wednesday Week 2
Just a short blog tonight. Tuesday was a terrific day at the French Open. We only made two recommendations and both came off. I was convinced that Kuznetsova could mix it with Serena, and for a brief moment at 2-0 up in the third, it looked like the shock might have been well and truly on. But we opted for Kuzzy +6.5 games and that was a relatively comfortable win despite dropping the first set 6-1! The second bet was for Errani to beat Radwanska @ 2.50 which she did in straight sets, showing all of her clay court skills. So all in all, a good day.
David Ferrer hammered Tommy Robredo like we predicted, while Tsonga knocked out a sub-par Federer in a match we said to stay away from! Federer is well past his sell-by date in my opinion so I won't read too much into this but it was a great win for Jo in straight sets nonetheless. In the next round, I fancy Ferrer big time but that's for another day!
Looking at tomorrow's matches very briefly, I won't be making any recommendations at all and won't be having any bets. I think Nadal will win without the loss of a set, I think Nole will win in 3 or 4, depending entirely on himself, I think Sharapova will win easily, and I think Azarenka will win easily as well. In betting terms, there is nothing to see and not one bet I will recommend. If I had to go for something, Djokovic is almost 2.00 to win 3-0 which he should do but then again he was poor against Kohlschreiber so I won't be backing it. I am pretty certain all those favourites will progress tomorrow, so keep an eye on them in play if they go down breaks or indeed sets.
Enjoy the tennis! Over and out :)
David Ferrer hammered Tommy Robredo like we predicted, while Tsonga knocked out a sub-par Federer in a match we said to stay away from! Federer is well past his sell-by date in my opinion so I won't read too much into this but it was a great win for Jo in straight sets nonetheless. In the next round, I fancy Ferrer big time but that's for another day!
Looking at tomorrow's matches very briefly, I won't be making any recommendations at all and won't be having any bets. I think Nadal will win without the loss of a set, I think Nole will win in 3 or 4, depending entirely on himself, I think Sharapova will win easily, and I think Azarenka will win easily as well. In betting terms, there is nothing to see and not one bet I will recommend. If I had to go for something, Djokovic is almost 2.00 to win 3-0 which he should do but then again he was poor against Kohlschreiber so I won't be backing it. I am pretty certain all those favourites will progress tomorrow, so keep an eye on them in play if they go down breaks or indeed sets.
Enjoy the tennis! Over and out :)
Monday 3 June 2013
Roland Garros Tuesday Week 2
The comeback win of Stan Wawrinka over Richard Gasquet was the undoubted highlight at Roland Garros on Monday. The fact that it was our only win of the day made it even more significant, and the only regret was laying off too much of the potential Wawrinka profit when he came back to two sets all! Wawrinka was phenomenal in the final few sets, as was Gasquet to give him his due, but Stan's shotmaking was exquisite. There were so many single-handed winners down the line, it was fantastic. Unfortunately for Stan, he will go no further, as Nadal is his next opponent but it was a fantastic display today. Wawrinka traded as high as 14.00 on the exchnages today, and while I did get on him @ 10.00, I layed off too much too soon and made only a relatively small profit.
Elsewhere today, Mikhail Youzhny was absolutely pathetic against Tommy Haas. While the German was typically efficient, Mikhail Youzhny ensured that all Tommy Haas had to do was stand at the other end of the court. Every second shot Youzhny hit was out and it was possibly the worst display I have ever seen from a professional tennis player. In the women's matches, Francesca Schiavone was doing well up until 3-3 in the first set, after which she didn't win another game against Vika Azarenka - so much for the plus 5.5 games there!
Anyway, moving onto quarter final day in the French capital tomorrow, the men's draw sees Roger Federer come up against Big Jo Tsonga as expected, while Tommy Robredo meets David Ferrer in a match I have very little interest in to be honest! On the women's side, Serena meets Kuznetsova while Errani meets Radwanska in the other match. Here are my four previews:
Tsonga v Federer: I can see Tsonga and Federer being an almightly struggle and I think Federer's price of 1.61 is actually very attractive. I won't be backing him however, as I was far from impressed with him the last day against Gilles Simon, while Tsonga, on the other hand, has progressed this far with the minimum of fuss. It will be a titanic struggle and if someone held a gun to my head I would probably take Federer in 5. If this match was on grass I would be recommending Jo for sure. I just think the clay might prove detrimental to his chances as Federer is certainly a better mover than him on this surface. For that reason, I am opting for Federer just about, but no bet recommended. If you do fancy a flutter, Federer in 5 sets is available @ 6.50 on the exchanges.
Robredo v Ferrer: Ferrer leads the head to head here 6-2 and I can't see anything other than a straight set rout for Ferrer. I think maybe one set might be close, but Robredo has come back from two sets down too often this week and his race is run in my opinion. Ferrer, like Jo Tsonga, has been very efficient and ruthless this week and his odds of 1.07 accurately reflect his chances tomorrow. No bet recommeded.
Williams v Kuznetsova: This is a match which Serena should and probably will win, but I think Svetlana Kuznetsova could give her plenty of trouble along the way. Kuznetsova is my favourite female player, I love the way she plays the game. She is aggressive, serves well, hits a big ball, and sets up points very well. And tellingly, she isn't afraid of anybody, Serena Williams included. Much like Rafa Nadal, Williams often wins matches before they ever begin by intimidating other players, but the butch, tattooed, former French Open winning Russian won't be intimidated. I think she has shown great form, and she won't mind dealing with Serena's pace. She moves way better than Serena, although that wouldn't be hard, and I just hope she can maintain her good form tomorrow. I will take Serena to probably win the match but I am recommending Kuznetsova plus 6.5 games @ 2.10 on the exchanges.
Errani v Radwanska: Sara Errani was far from impressive in her previous round against Suaraz-Navarro, but she did well to pull through from a set down to take her place in the QF. Tomorrow, she comes up against an in-form Agnieska Radwanska who has looked great all tournament. However, in terms of clay court pedigree, this one is no contest, with Errani as a former finalist and Radwasnka having more success on hard courts. The odds suggest Errani only has a 40% chance of winning here as she is priced at 2.50 on the exchanges. I think she represents good value as I would give her more than a 50% chance of winning this one. Take Errani to progress as a recommended bet. Probably in three.
Enjoy the tennis tomorrow! Over and out :)
Elsewhere today, Mikhail Youzhny was absolutely pathetic against Tommy Haas. While the German was typically efficient, Mikhail Youzhny ensured that all Tommy Haas had to do was stand at the other end of the court. Every second shot Youzhny hit was out and it was possibly the worst display I have ever seen from a professional tennis player. In the women's matches, Francesca Schiavone was doing well up until 3-3 in the first set, after which she didn't win another game against Vika Azarenka - so much for the plus 5.5 games there!
Anyway, moving onto quarter final day in the French capital tomorrow, the men's draw sees Roger Federer come up against Big Jo Tsonga as expected, while Tommy Robredo meets David Ferrer in a match I have very little interest in to be honest! On the women's side, Serena meets Kuznetsova while Errani meets Radwanska in the other match. Here are my four previews:
Tsonga v Federer: I can see Tsonga and Federer being an almightly struggle and I think Federer's price of 1.61 is actually very attractive. I won't be backing him however, as I was far from impressed with him the last day against Gilles Simon, while Tsonga, on the other hand, has progressed this far with the minimum of fuss. It will be a titanic struggle and if someone held a gun to my head I would probably take Federer in 5. If this match was on grass I would be recommending Jo for sure. I just think the clay might prove detrimental to his chances as Federer is certainly a better mover than him on this surface. For that reason, I am opting for Federer just about, but no bet recommended. If you do fancy a flutter, Federer in 5 sets is available @ 6.50 on the exchanges.
Robredo v Ferrer: Ferrer leads the head to head here 6-2 and I can't see anything other than a straight set rout for Ferrer. I think maybe one set might be close, but Robredo has come back from two sets down too often this week and his race is run in my opinion. Ferrer, like Jo Tsonga, has been very efficient and ruthless this week and his odds of 1.07 accurately reflect his chances tomorrow. No bet recommeded.
Williams v Kuznetsova: This is a match which Serena should and probably will win, but I think Svetlana Kuznetsova could give her plenty of trouble along the way. Kuznetsova is my favourite female player, I love the way she plays the game. She is aggressive, serves well, hits a big ball, and sets up points very well. And tellingly, she isn't afraid of anybody, Serena Williams included. Much like Rafa Nadal, Williams often wins matches before they ever begin by intimidating other players, but the butch, tattooed, former French Open winning Russian won't be intimidated. I think she has shown great form, and she won't mind dealing with Serena's pace. She moves way better than Serena, although that wouldn't be hard, and I just hope she can maintain her good form tomorrow. I will take Serena to probably win the match but I am recommending Kuznetsova plus 6.5 games @ 2.10 on the exchanges.
Errani v Radwanska: Sara Errani was far from impressive in her previous round against Suaraz-Navarro, but she did well to pull through from a set down to take her place in the QF. Tomorrow, she comes up against an in-form Agnieska Radwanska who has looked great all tournament. However, in terms of clay court pedigree, this one is no contest, with Errani as a former finalist and Radwasnka having more success on hard courts. The odds suggest Errani only has a 40% chance of winning here as she is priced at 2.50 on the exchanges. I think she represents good value as I would give her more than a 50% chance of winning this one. Take Errani to progress as a recommended bet. Probably in three.
Enjoy the tennis tomorrow! Over and out :)
Sunday 2 June 2013
Roland Garros Monday Week 2
The only real upset at Roland Garros on Sunday was Tommy Robredo knocking out the mentally fragile Nico Almagro in five sets. Almagro was up two sets and 4-1 in the third when he decided to throw it all away, and I for one am thrilled to see Robredo through! He made the quarters here in 2003 and he is back again a decade later! I never liked Almagro or his game, and never get involved in any match which he is playing. He is so unreliable and today proved that.
The blog had more success on the women's side today than the men's. We recommended Radwanska to beat Ivanovic which she did in straight sets @ 1.85 while we also predicted Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Angelique Kerber which she did @ 2.36. Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson could not get the set we hoped for against David Ferrer, and, in truth, he was beaten out the gate. Ferrer looked very easy against Anderson, who was abysmal today. Ferrer takes on Robredo next, and I can't see beyond a straight set win for Ferrer. The match of the day today was Federer and Simon, which was also my best match of the day from a betting point of view. I backed Simon at 30/1 when he was a set down. That was a ludicrous price for someone who has a very respectable record against Federer, and he duly went all the way down to 2.20 in the fifth. I layed him off when he was about 3.00 but still made some very nice profit on that match.
Looking forward to tomorrow's matches, there are two men's matches where I will recommend a bet and one women's.
Youzhny v Haas: this match is an even money shout according to the bookmakers and the exchanges. I would generally agree as both men have been very impressive this season and play a very similar style of game. However, there are some important factors which swing the issue Youzhny's way in my opinion. Firstly, Tommy Haas played a five set marathon against John Isner on Saturday which he has to be still recovering from. A 35 year old body, no matter how good shape he's in, has to suffer in a match like that. Also, and possibly even more significantly, Youzhny has won their last two encounters, most recently in Rome only 2 weeks ago. I think Youzhny should be shorter for this match, around about 1.80, but he is still available @ 2.00 on the exchanges and he is the main recommendation for tomorrow at those prices.
Gasquet v Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka has been playing the tennis of his life in 2013. He is one of the top 5 performers of the year for sure, and Magnus Norman will have him primed for this one. The exchanges initially had this one priced at 2.00 and 2.00 but Wawrinka is now 1.71 which is slightly shorter than I would like. I leave it up to yourself whether to back at that price or not but suffice it to say I really like his chances in this one. It is hard to fathom that these two have only met once, back in 2006 on carpet, but Monday's match could be epic. Expect to see plently of single-handed backhand magic, (much like the Youzhny - Haas match for that matter!), but expect Wawrinka to progress, probably in 4.
Schiavone v Azarenka: this is a match I have been waiting a few days for. Former champ Schiavone has looked good in this draw so far, and hammered Bartoli in the last round. She is available @ 5/1 to win the match against Azarenka who is not a clay courter, and is available + 5.5 games @ 2.06 as well. I think she is worth a bet in both of those markets. Azarenka dropped a set and looked sluggish in her last round against Cornet, and I think Schiavone could give her plenty of bother. Even is she doesn't win, the former Italian champion should be definitely available to trade with an SP of 6.00.
In other round of 16 action tomorrow in both draws, I expect wins for: Djokovic, Nadal, Sharapova, Kirilenko, and Jankovic. Keep an eye on the action in play and enjoy the tennis. Hopefully Youzhny can deliver and make it a green day for the blog! Over and out :)
The blog had more success on the women's side today than the men's. We recommended Radwanska to beat Ivanovic which she did in straight sets @ 1.85 while we also predicted Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat Angelique Kerber which she did @ 2.36. Unfortunately, Kevin Anderson could not get the set we hoped for against David Ferrer, and, in truth, he was beaten out the gate. Ferrer looked very easy against Anderson, who was abysmal today. Ferrer takes on Robredo next, and I can't see beyond a straight set win for Ferrer. The match of the day today was Federer and Simon, which was also my best match of the day from a betting point of view. I backed Simon at 30/1 when he was a set down. That was a ludicrous price for someone who has a very respectable record against Federer, and he duly went all the way down to 2.20 in the fifth. I layed him off when he was about 3.00 but still made some very nice profit on that match.
Looking forward to tomorrow's matches, there are two men's matches where I will recommend a bet and one women's.
Youzhny v Haas: this match is an even money shout according to the bookmakers and the exchanges. I would generally agree as both men have been very impressive this season and play a very similar style of game. However, there are some important factors which swing the issue Youzhny's way in my opinion. Firstly, Tommy Haas played a five set marathon against John Isner on Saturday which he has to be still recovering from. A 35 year old body, no matter how good shape he's in, has to suffer in a match like that. Also, and possibly even more significantly, Youzhny has won their last two encounters, most recently in Rome only 2 weeks ago. I think Youzhny should be shorter for this match, around about 1.80, but he is still available @ 2.00 on the exchanges and he is the main recommendation for tomorrow at those prices.
Gasquet v Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka has been playing the tennis of his life in 2013. He is one of the top 5 performers of the year for sure, and Magnus Norman will have him primed for this one. The exchanges initially had this one priced at 2.00 and 2.00 but Wawrinka is now 1.71 which is slightly shorter than I would like. I leave it up to yourself whether to back at that price or not but suffice it to say I really like his chances in this one. It is hard to fathom that these two have only met once, back in 2006 on carpet, but Monday's match could be epic. Expect to see plently of single-handed backhand magic, (much like the Youzhny - Haas match for that matter!), but expect Wawrinka to progress, probably in 4.
Schiavone v Azarenka: this is a match I have been waiting a few days for. Former champ Schiavone has looked good in this draw so far, and hammered Bartoli in the last round. She is available @ 5/1 to win the match against Azarenka who is not a clay courter, and is available + 5.5 games @ 2.06 as well. I think she is worth a bet in both of those markets. Azarenka dropped a set and looked sluggish in her last round against Cornet, and I think Schiavone could give her plenty of bother. Even is she doesn't win, the former Italian champion should be definitely available to trade with an SP of 6.00.
In other round of 16 action tomorrow in both draws, I expect wins for: Djokovic, Nadal, Sharapova, Kirilenko, and Jankovic. Keep an eye on the action in play and enjoy the tennis. Hopefully Youzhny can deliver and make it a green day for the blog! Over and out :)
Saturday 1 June 2013
Roland Garros Sunday Week 1
Saturday was a fantastic day for the blog at Roland Garros. We went for Nishikori over Paire, who won @ 2.20, we had Youzhny @ 1.90 over Tipsarevic which also won, and we had John Isner @ 4.00, who ultimately lost 10-8 in the fifth to Haas but who I layed off @ 1.11 when leading 4-1 in the fifth! So all in all it was a pretty perfect day. To be honest, I though the Nishikori - Paire match was pathetic stuff. They looked like two guys who were trying to lose rather than win, and I wasn't impressed by either. Paire has a club-level forehand and Nishikori is lacking in heart and bottle. Nishikori will go no further. We are now at the round of 16 stage, and so there are four men's matches tomorrow, and four on Monday. I have to say, from a betting point of view, there is very little interest tomorrow on the men's side pre-match. All the ones I am interested in like Youzhny - Haas and Wawrinka - Gasquet are on Monday.
There is only one match where I will be recommending a pre-match bet tomorrow and that is on the first men's match up on Lenglen. David Ferrer takes on the giant South African Kevin Anderson in what might be a closer match than people think. Anderson has been one of the most improved players on tour over the past year or so, and indeed he beat Ferrer in Indian Wells earlier this season. His serve is enormous, and he moves extremely well for such a big man. His forehand is a huge weapon too, and, unlike someone like Raonic who has a poor backhand, Anderson has no obvious weakness, as his backhand and net-play are solid too. Anderson actually took out Raonic in straight sets in the last round and looked impressive in doing so. I think Ferrer will win their match tomorrow. He is a strong favourite to do so and I think only Rafa, Nole, or maybe Federer can beat him on this surface, but I am going to lay Ferrer to win 3-0 @ 1.97 on the exchanges which means we need Anderson to get only one set in the match. I am pretty confident he will manage that.
Elsewhere tomorrow, I expect wins for Almagro over Robredo. Almagro leads the head to head 5-0 so I can't see any way that Robredo can win that match, especially after his five set win over Monfils in the previous round. Federer takes on Simon in the last match on Chatrier, and, given Federer's form so far this tournament, it would be hard to see him losing. I do think Simon can trouble him though, despite the scoreline of their match in Rome. And the only other men's match tomorrow is Tsonga v Troicki, which I would take Big Jo to come through in maybe 4 sets. Just because there are so few men's matches given the stage of the tournament we are now at, I am going to predict a winner for each of the women's matches from here on out too. Tomorrow I will take Kuznetsova over Kerber, Williams over Vinci, Errani over Suarez-Navarro, and Radwanksa over Ivanovic. There is actually some value to be had in those matches as Radwanska @ almost 1.80 is appealing along with Kuznetsova @ about 2.30 to beat Kerber.
Finally, in the men's outright market, today saw some significant price changes as Nadal has drifted from 1.80 to 2.20 and Djokovic has shortened from 3.30 to 2.90. This is because Rafa was far from impressive, again, against Fabio Fognini, while Djokovic continued him impeccable form in this tournament with a straight set demolition of Grigor Dimitrov. Djokovic is looking far superior for me and I think if their semi-final match does materialise, then we could be recommending a Serbian win, based on what we have seen so far. We will leave it for the time being and take the opportunity to see both guys again on Monday. Until this time tomorrow, all the best and enjoy tomorrow's tennis. Come on Anderson! Over and out :)
There is only one match where I will be recommending a pre-match bet tomorrow and that is on the first men's match up on Lenglen. David Ferrer takes on the giant South African Kevin Anderson in what might be a closer match than people think. Anderson has been one of the most improved players on tour over the past year or so, and indeed he beat Ferrer in Indian Wells earlier this season. His serve is enormous, and he moves extremely well for such a big man. His forehand is a huge weapon too, and, unlike someone like Raonic who has a poor backhand, Anderson has no obvious weakness, as his backhand and net-play are solid too. Anderson actually took out Raonic in straight sets in the last round and looked impressive in doing so. I think Ferrer will win their match tomorrow. He is a strong favourite to do so and I think only Rafa, Nole, or maybe Federer can beat him on this surface, but I am going to lay Ferrer to win 3-0 @ 1.97 on the exchanges which means we need Anderson to get only one set in the match. I am pretty confident he will manage that.
Elsewhere tomorrow, I expect wins for Almagro over Robredo. Almagro leads the head to head 5-0 so I can't see any way that Robredo can win that match, especially after his five set win over Monfils in the previous round. Federer takes on Simon in the last match on Chatrier, and, given Federer's form so far this tournament, it would be hard to see him losing. I do think Simon can trouble him though, despite the scoreline of their match in Rome. And the only other men's match tomorrow is Tsonga v Troicki, which I would take Big Jo to come through in maybe 4 sets. Just because there are so few men's matches given the stage of the tournament we are now at, I am going to predict a winner for each of the women's matches from here on out too. Tomorrow I will take Kuznetsova over Kerber, Williams over Vinci, Errani over Suarez-Navarro, and Radwanksa over Ivanovic. There is actually some value to be had in those matches as Radwanska @ almost 1.80 is appealing along with Kuznetsova @ about 2.30 to beat Kerber.
Finally, in the men's outright market, today saw some significant price changes as Nadal has drifted from 1.80 to 2.20 and Djokovic has shortened from 3.30 to 2.90. This is because Rafa was far from impressive, again, against Fabio Fognini, while Djokovic continued him impeccable form in this tournament with a straight set demolition of Grigor Dimitrov. Djokovic is looking far superior for me and I think if their semi-final match does materialise, then we could be recommending a Serbian win, based on what we have seen so far. We will leave it for the time being and take the opportunity to see both guys again on Monday. Until this time tomorrow, all the best and enjoy tomorrow's tennis. Come on Anderson! Over and out :)
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