The last day of the year but the very start of the new tennis year. Really quicky, a few shouts for tomorrow:
ATP Doha - Peya/Soares v Jaziri/Zayed:
This is 1/10 with Bet365 but in reality it's a 1/500 shot. Zayed is the guy who plays Murray tomorro and won't win one game against him. He is ranked outside the world's top 2000 and 2-0 set betting here to Peya/Soares at 1/3 is a stonewall certainty if you can get enough on. It's a 1/33 shot
ATP Brisbane - Lopez v Kukushkin:
Feliciano Lopez is a 1/2 shot here and can be had at 8/11
ATP Brisbane - Copil v Sugita:
Copil at 4/6 stands out to me here as a decent price. I would be closer to 1/2 again on this one
ATP Chennai - Laaksonen v Bedene:
I think Bedene is a better player here but Laaksonen at 6/5 is the bet as he has come through a tortorous qualifying route to make the main draw here while Bedene plays his first match of the season. Take the Swiss
ATP Doha:
Keep an eye on the Zayed v Andy Murray match. 100% the scoreline will be 6-0 6-0 and some firms might go up with a normal price not realising the gulf in class. This guy lost 6-0 6-0 to another Brit ranked outside the top 1000 so imagine what Murray will do to him. He lost 6-0 6-3 to Monfils here last year with Le Monf throwing some pity games towards the end!
Monday 30 December 2013
Sunday 29 December 2013
Doha, Chennai, Brisbane, Hopman Monday
Just a quick blog entry tonight with some picks for Monday's tennis:
ATP Brisbane Doubles - Cabal/Farah v Guccione/Hewitt:
I think this is a great bet at 10/11 for the Columbian pairing. They are an established ATP doubles team while Guccione/Hewitt are singles players who play doubles together when they happen to be at the same event. I make the Columbians about an 8/15 shot so they are certainly worth a bet at pick 'em.
ATP Chennai - Marchenko v Laaksonen:
Ilya Marchenko is 4/6 here and I think is a bit better than that so worth a bet for me. He has more shots and more flair than Henri Laaksonen. 1/2 shot for me.
ATP Chennai - Lacko v Sela:
Lukas Lacko at even money looks like good value to me. Sela can be underestimated but Lacko is the better player and finished 2013 in nice form.
ATP Doha - Kamke v Jaziri:
Tobias Kamke looks a bit big at 4/6 here against a much lower-ranked and less established opponent. 4/9 shot for me
WTA Brisbane - Watson v Cibulkova:
Heather Watson is a player I REALLY admire and looks to be hitting the ground running this season. Cibulkova has just arrived down under while Watson already has a nice win under her belt. 3.00 is too big here. 6/4 max for me so I will take Watson. Smallish stakes.
Over and out :)
ATP Brisbane Doubles - Cabal/Farah v Guccione/Hewitt:
I think this is a great bet at 10/11 for the Columbian pairing. They are an established ATP doubles team while Guccione/Hewitt are singles players who play doubles together when they happen to be at the same event. I make the Columbians about an 8/15 shot so they are certainly worth a bet at pick 'em.
ATP Chennai - Marchenko v Laaksonen:
Ilya Marchenko is 4/6 here and I think is a bit better than that so worth a bet for me. He has more shots and more flair than Henri Laaksonen. 1/2 shot for me.
ATP Chennai - Lacko v Sela:
Lukas Lacko at even money looks like good value to me. Sela can be underestimated but Lacko is the better player and finished 2013 in nice form.
ATP Doha - Kamke v Jaziri:
Tobias Kamke looks a bit big at 4/6 here against a much lower-ranked and less established opponent. 4/9 shot for me
WTA Brisbane - Watson v Cibulkova:
Heather Watson is a player I REALLY admire and looks to be hitting the ground running this season. Cibulkova has just arrived down under while Watson already has a nice win under her belt. 3.00 is too big here. 6/4 max for me so I will take Watson. Smallish stakes.
Over and out :)
Friday 27 December 2013
Mubadala Final and ATP Qualies
So David Ferrer really showed up today and sent a dismal Nadal packing in what was a bit of a surprise result to be fair. Everything else went to script with Murray coming in at 4/5 and with Djokovic overcoming Tsonga 7-6 6-3. That first set was so close and I was impressed with Tsonga in general. I think given all the displays we saw today, I would rank them as follows - Ferrer, Djokovic, Tsonga, Murray, Nadal, Wawrinka in that order. Looking to tomorrow:
Djokovic v Ferrer:
Djokovic beat Ferrer 6-0 6-3 here in the final last year and I think it will be a straight sets win again for the Serb but no bet advised as 1.19 is too prohibitive!
Nadal v Tsonga:
I have been burned in the past on occasions where I thought Tsonga could hit through Nadal but on this occasion, I am willing to have a bet on Tsonga at 3.1 to beat a very off-key Rafa. Jo looks very polished, aggressive, and the courts are to his liking. He has a great chance here and a small bet at 21/10 is the order of the day.
Chennai Qualies:
One bet I like here is 11/10 on Karen Kachanov to beat Hiroki Moriya in the ATP Chennai Qualifiers at 11/10. A lot of good things coming out of Russia about this chap and he played well in St Petersburg and Moscow in 2013 with wins already over Hanescu and Ramos. 11/10 looks too big to me in his first foray into an ATP tournament outside of the shackles of the iron curtain!
Tsonga to beat Nadal at 21/10
Kachanov to beat Moriya at 11/10
Djokovic v Ferrer:
Djokovic beat Ferrer 6-0 6-3 here in the final last year and I think it will be a straight sets win again for the Serb but no bet advised as 1.19 is too prohibitive!
Nadal v Tsonga:
I have been burned in the past on occasions where I thought Tsonga could hit through Nadal but on this occasion, I am willing to have a bet on Tsonga at 3.1 to beat a very off-key Rafa. Jo looks very polished, aggressive, and the courts are to his liking. He has a great chance here and a small bet at 21/10 is the order of the day.
Chennai Qualies:
One bet I like here is 11/10 on Karen Kachanov to beat Hiroki Moriya in the ATP Chennai Qualifiers at 11/10. A lot of good things coming out of Russia about this chap and he played well in St Petersburg and Moscow in 2013 with wins already over Hanescu and Ramos. 11/10 looks too big to me in his first foray into an ATP tournament outside of the shackles of the iron curtain!
Tsonga to beat Nadal at 21/10
Kachanov to beat Moriya at 11/10
Thursday 26 December 2013
Mubadala World Tennis Champs
Welcome back to the tour everybody - well, not quite the tour but close enough for me after a month of ITF scoreboards! I never did a blog yesterday but got two winners in Tsonga and Ferrer today. I thought Murray would be undercooked and so it proved as big Jo Willy disposed of him very easilly. In the other match, I thought the bet was in trouble at 3-5 down in the first set but from that point Ferrer won ten games to Wawrinka's one. Outdoors is a better situation for Ferrer to find himself against Stan than indoors like when the Swiss beat him at the WTF.
Looking ahead to tomorrow's tennis:
Murray v Wawrinka:
This 5th place play-off is difficult to call as both were poor today but I actually think the 4/5 available on Murray represents the best value as I thought he would be a bit shorter than that. If there was 13/8 or 7/4 available on Stan I would have been tempted but not at 11/10. I was very unimpressed with Wawrinka today who fell asunder against Ferrer from a very good position. He was laughing and joking at his own misses in the second set and I'm not sure what he wanted to get out of this tournament. I think Murray will be more tuned-in for this match tomorrow as he continues on his road to recovery and I will go for him to win this one at 4/5. Small stakes recommended.
Nadal v Ferrer:
Nadal will beat Ferrer, but not all too easily. From a betting point of view, 1/4 is not too bad a price as Nadal often goes off a lot shorter than that against Ferrer and I was expecting more like 1/6 here. The one advantage for Ferrer over Rafa tomorrow is that he has now played a match on this surface and Rafa hasn't. That will be beneficial but Nadal will be fine after a few games and will look to kick off the year with a good win. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ferrer pushed him close but the only bet I am interested in is Rafa at 1/4 which is not a bet for small stake punters!
Djokovic v Tsonga:
Much like the Nadal-Ferrer match, I think Novak will win this but wouldn't even back it as I respect Jo's game a lot. He has an amazing serve, volley, and forehand but that is offset by a vulnerable backhand and a very poor return of serve. Djokovic is two-time defending champ here and will set up a final with Rafa but a tough match lies in store tomorrow and I won't be having any bet on that one. Tsonga looked good today but Murray really wasn't at his best and Jo didn't have to do too much and got away with his return. Nole won't let him off the hook as easily!
Murray to beat Wawrinka @ 4/5
Rafa to beat Ferrer @ 1/4
Looking ahead to tomorrow's tennis:
Murray v Wawrinka:
This 5th place play-off is difficult to call as both were poor today but I actually think the 4/5 available on Murray represents the best value as I thought he would be a bit shorter than that. If there was 13/8 or 7/4 available on Stan I would have been tempted but not at 11/10. I was very unimpressed with Wawrinka today who fell asunder against Ferrer from a very good position. He was laughing and joking at his own misses in the second set and I'm not sure what he wanted to get out of this tournament. I think Murray will be more tuned-in for this match tomorrow as he continues on his road to recovery and I will go for him to win this one at 4/5. Small stakes recommended.
Nadal v Ferrer:
Nadal will beat Ferrer, but not all too easily. From a betting point of view, 1/4 is not too bad a price as Nadal often goes off a lot shorter than that against Ferrer and I was expecting more like 1/6 here. The one advantage for Ferrer over Rafa tomorrow is that he has now played a match on this surface and Rafa hasn't. That will be beneficial but Nadal will be fine after a few games and will look to kick off the year with a good win. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Ferrer pushed him close but the only bet I am interested in is Rafa at 1/4 which is not a bet for small stake punters!
Djokovic v Tsonga:
Much like the Nadal-Ferrer match, I think Novak will win this but wouldn't even back it as I respect Jo's game a lot. He has an amazing serve, volley, and forehand but that is offset by a vulnerable backhand and a very poor return of serve. Djokovic is two-time defending champ here and will set up a final with Rafa but a tough match lies in store tomorrow and I won't be having any bet on that one. Tsonga looked good today but Murray really wasn't at his best and Jo didn't have to do too much and got away with his return. Nole won't let him off the hook as easily!
Murray to beat Wawrinka @ 4/5
Rafa to beat Ferrer @ 1/4
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