So finally we have arrived at our first week of the new ATP world tour for 2013. It begins with three ATP 250 tournaments taking place in Brisbane (Australia), Chennai (India), and Doha (Qatar) and we can see which players have been working hard since November and who has been slacking off!
My intention with this blog is to keep it simple and basically just point out what tennis bets I see as attractive and/or good value so we can all have a profitable new year. If time allows I will try to preview each tournament and review bets/matches/picks that have been successful or otherwise. Please share your comments and views as we go along and if you have anything to offer I would be more than delighted to hear your opinions too! I will try to update this everyday with short posts and intend on offering one or two picks a day.
I think it is important to remember a few things when it comes to tennis betting: go with your own instinct - chances are if you are gambling on tennis then you have a fair idea about the game, don't be afraid to lay rather than just back all the time (most if not all of my betting is done on the exchanges), trade out of the market when you have the chance, don't be too greedy - one winning selection is better than five choices where only two win, pay heed to rankings/head to heads/past performances in a certain venue/how a player did the week before etc, and finally try to enjoy it. Making a profit is the main goal but enjoy the tennis along the way too. I will also keep a log or tracker of how we are doing as we are going along. We will work on a points basis with 1 pt being the minimum stake and 5 pts being the max.
So, onto our choices this week. I usually back individual matches rather than outright markets but this week one of the players has caught my eye in the outright market for the Chennai Open in India. Marin Cilic won the title there in 2010 and 2011 and was injured last year. He represents good value at 5/1 with the bookmakers and 6.6 on the exchanges. Having received a bye in the first round, his likely route to the title would be: Qualifier in his first match, Benoit Paire in his QF, Tomas Bercych in his SF, and Stan Wawrinka or Janko Tipsarevic in the final. Berdych is an obvious threat but he finished 2012 in a very unimpressive fashion and was destroyed by Ferrer in Abu Dhabi last week in the Mubadala exhibition. Cilic has spoken about his very positive feelings around Chennai and the fact that he wants to make a great start to 2013 and so I am more than happy to take 5/1 for a 3 pt stake. I think Murray will retain his Brisbane title but his odds don't attract me at all with the likes of Nishikori and Raonic floating about while the same applies to David Ferrer in Doha. I think he will win but I won't be backing it outright. I think Monfils could be a danger in that draw if somebody does fancy an outright flutter.
Recommended bet: Marin Cilic to win Chennai Open @ 6.6 Betfair or 5/1 Boylesports
