Australian Open Day 8

Another mixed day yesterday with Wawrinka and Ivanovic good results but Anderson and Fognini not even close to covering their handicaps. Gonna stick with it until the end of the tournament despite the bad run!

Dimitrov v Bautista-Agut: Dimitrov is a fantastic price here at 6/11 with Boyles and 4/7 general. I think he's about a 1/3 shot and I think he's almost certianly going to win. I think there is a gulf in class here and I think Dimitrov, playing with the confidence he now has, will expose Bautista-Agut for the pusher that he is. 5 points maximum bet on Dimitrov. 

Tsonga v Federer: This is the best bet of the tournament for me so far. Tsonga had Federer's number these days. I'm convinced of it. He was able to beat Federer back in Federer's peak years, so I think given Federer's decline and Tsonga's run of form and love for this tournament, I think 7/5 is an outstanding price and I'm very confident Tsonga will beat Federer here. Having 5points maximum bet on Big Jo

Stephens v Azarenka: I think Stephens is not without her chance here. She has been playing very well and the Aussie Open is her best slam having made the semis here last year. I like her to get a set here @ 7/4 and will have 2 points on that with a further point on Azarenka to win 2-1 @ 7/2 

Jankovic v Halep: Going for 2 pt win on Jankovic here @ 5/4. I see it as pretty much a pickem match with Halep the up and comer and Jankovic the established name who seems in decent form herself. 5/4 seems to be good value for a small bet.

Radwanska v Muguruza: I'm going for Radwanska here who I think is over-priced @ 1/2. She's number 4 in the world and should beat Muguruza for sure. Muguruza is going to be a good player in the years to come but this one comes a bit soon for her. 5 pts Radwanska @ 1/2

Over and out

Australian Open Day 7

Day 6 was a washout, mainly down to Paire acting the the clown against Agut and then Monfils not showing up against Rafa at all. Dimitrov beat Raonic like I said and Nishikori got the 3-0 win over Young.

Here are Sundays picks:

Fognini v Djokovic: I think Fognini is too good a player not to beat the 9.5 games handicap against Nole. I'm going for two pts on that at 8/11. The Italian to get a set at 3/1 appeals to me too and I will have a pt on that. Fognini won't beat Nole but I think he can live with him off the ground.

Berdych v Anderson: I think berdych is too good for Anderson but I think the +6.5 games at 5/6 that Bwin are offering seems a decent bet. They have had tight matches in the past. 2pts

Wawrinka v Robredo: 5pts on Stan here at 2/5. Can't see him losing to Robredo in his favourite slam and in this form.

Kerber v Pennetta: I am going for 4pts on Kerber here to beat Pennetta at 1/2. Better player for me but could be a close one.

Williams v Ivanovic: taking Ana here plus 6.5 games at 10/11 for 5pts. Her flat ball and good serve will help her overcome this handicap which I thought would be one game lower.

Over and out. It's going to be a good day.

Australian Open Day 6

Day 5 was just a break even day unfortunately with Fognini beating Querrey and the max bet on Kerber coming in easily at 1/3. Istomin gave us a run for our money in the third set but that was always a bit of a gamble and finally Stosur lost from a set up so all in all about level for the day. I've just done a quick tally and we are plus three points profit for the tournament which is not great by any means but still profit none the less. I am always confident of better profits in the second week of a slam too so stick with it:

Saturday is a bumper day. Here are the picks:

Gabashvili v Federer: Gabashvili +9.5 @ 4/5 looks a nice bit of value here. He has taken out an in-form Stakhovsky and Fernando Verdasco so far and can be dangerous. He is a very big hitter if somewhat erratic too. I expect Federer to win, probably even in straight sets, but I expect it to be closer than 3,3,& 3 and so will have 2pts on Gabashvili +9.5 games. Go with a bookie who voids out all bets in case Gabashvili retires. He had the trainer out twice against Verdasco.

Paire v Bautista-Agut: this is a match I have a strong opinion on. I think Paire, despite the head to head between the players, should be a favourite here. If this match was on clay I'd understand but to me Bautista-Agut is a nothing player. I think what's happened here is that the armchair punter, sitting at home watching the tennis on TV who doesn't watch it from one end of the year to the other has seen him beat an under-par Delpo and thinks he's a world-beater. Let me tell you he's not. My initial price here was about 1.5 Paire. I don't read too much into the head to head in this instance. Benoit Paire can be a type to throw a match very easily once he loses interest. I'm confident that won't happen in a slam. Paire came from 2 sets down to defeat Kyrgios last round. If he serves as he can, then I give him a terrific chance here My only worry with Paire is his forehand. Everything else is world class - serve, volley, backhand. His backhand is actually in the top two or three on tour. It's that good. 9/5 is a ridiculous price and I'm going a full 5pts max bet on it. I'm not saying he's a certainty because he's not but I am saying I think the price is wrong and I think it's excellent value. 5 pts Paire @ 9/5

Raonic v Dimitrov: Going to take a chance on Dimitrov here at 5/4 to win this one. Leads the head to head 2-1 and looks to be in good form. Very impressive win over Lu in straight sets last round and can beat Raonic for sure. He can hold serve pretty comfortably against Raonic whose returns are among the worst in tennis and I think Dimitrov's passing shots when the giant comes in to the net could be a key to this match. 2pts Dimitrov @ 5/4

Murray v Lopez: Murray leads the head to head 7-0 here but when the draw came out I immediately saw this as a potential banana skin. Look at their last meeting in the US Open in 2012 when Murray won. It was extremely close, 7-6 7-6 4-6 7-6 to the Scot. He was playing a lot better then than he is now. Lopez, like Murray is yet to drop a set. I expect Murray to win but I will have 1pt on Lopez @ 6/1 general. I will also go for 3pts on Lopez to win a set @ 5/4 and a further 2 pts on Lopez +6.5 games @ 4/5. Big match

Young v Nishikori: Nishikori to win 3-0 @ 20/21 is my pick here. I think Young is brutal and can't believe he has gotten this far. Just 1 pt.

Nadal v Monfils: 2 pts on Monfils here to win a set @ 6/5. I expect Nadal to win but I also expect a close match. Monfils can be so dangerous and Nadal will need to play close to his best tennis.

No womens bets tonight for me but one more for the men's draw. Tsonga is still 9/2 to win Q2 with Ladbrokes and I think it's enormous. He hasn't dropped a set yet and looked great in his last round against Bellucci. Ominous threat to Federer and Murray. The price seems big to me. 2pts on that

Follow on twitter @tennis_backer and come back tomorrow for Sunday's picks.

Over and out :) 

Australian Open Day 5

A Much better day yesterday with all 5 selections coming in for about 6 points profit.

Here are Friday's thoughts:

Fognini v Querrey: a small bet here on Fognini who looks to be hitting it pretty well. He is a better player than Querrey for sure but a lot depends on how Querrey serves. 1pt on Fognini @ 8/5

Djokovic v Istomin: Going to take a chance on Istomin here and go with the Kazakh to win a set @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes (11/4 general) 1pt

Kerber v Riske: Going with a mximum play on Kerber @ 1/3 which I think is too big. Riske has never impressed me and I'll take the German for 5pts @ 1/3

Stosur v Ivanovic: Going with the home hope here, Sam Stosur to beat Ana Ivanovic, 3pts @ 5/4. Stosur looks in great shape and I have a feeling she might well go deep here and cause a few surprises. Stosur 3pts

Talk tomorrow!

Australian Open Day 4

I have to acknowledge what a brutal day yesterday was. The only winner I went for was Fognini who easily beat Nieminen. Of the other losers, the only one I regret tipping up is Benneteau. In hindsight, Robredo over 5 sets is hard to beat and Benneteau is probably not one to rely on. I still maintain Bencic had a great chance, it's just a pity she took 6 full games before she got into the match. Twice she was up a break in that second set and also had chances in the breaker. And finally, the Istomin match. The head to head going in was 3-0 Tursunov. Tursunov beat him in straight sets last week, and there was 4/5 to be had. Hard to argue with.

Anyway, that's the post mortem out of the way, and, looking ahead to Day 4, I feel there is very little worth betting on so I don't have too many recommendations:

Berrer v Lopez: Lopez looks a certainty here albeit at the prohibitive price of 1/3. Berrer really is pretty useless and Lopez does everything better than him. 1/6 shot for me. 5pts Lopez

Rola v Klizan: I think Klizan is just about worth a bet at 8/13 and has way more experience on this stage than Blaz Rola who, it has to be said, is in nice shape himself. I'll have Klizan for the win for just 1pt @ 8/13 general

Lu v Dimitrov: I think this is the exact kind of match Dimitrov might have lost a year ago or so, but I think with Roger Rasheed at the helm he will get it done tonight and 8/15 is a nice price. Dimitrov has matured a bit and he has everything. He serves way better than Lu but will have to be on his game to beat the Auckland runner-up who is in good from himself. I'll take Dimitrov for 2pts @ 8/15

Paire v Kyrgios: I am going to take Paire here @ 2/5 just because I think this match comes a year or two too soon for Kyrgios, another young Aussie hope with a bright future. If Paire serves like he should he will be ok. 2 points Paire

Voegele v Cibulkova: I will take Cibulkova here @ 8/15 - thought she would be a bit shorter and her form looks good too. Better player than Voegele. 2pts.

Hope things go a bit better than yesterday

Over and out!

Australian Open Day 3

As promised earlier, just back on to add a bit of meat to the bones of my predictions so to speak!

Very rushed blog on my phone for now until I flush it out a bit later on.

Tursunov v Istomin: Tursunov looks in very decent shape. Both hit the ball big, both serve well and move well. I actually think Istomin hits a nicer cleaner ball than the Russian but Tursunov seems to have it upstairs while Denis The Menace can be found wanting in that department sometimes, when it gets to squeaky bum time. That's the main reason I'm plumping for Tursunov here. That and the fact he beat him last week. Tursunov 3pts @ 4/5 

Benneteau v Robredo: I like the Frenchman here. All is not right with Robredo still. He didnt play any warm up tournaments and only got through to round two by virtue of a Czech Choke in the shape of Lukas Rosol who somehow found a way to lose in the fifth serving for the match at 40-15 up. Benneteau went 5 sets with Carreno-Busta but PCB is under-rated to me and I still like Benneteau here. 2pts Evs

Fognini v Nieminen: Fognini is a much better player than Nieminen. Neither guy is on top form or even close, hence the fact it is only a one point play. I'm encouraged by the fact that FF was two easy sets up on Bogomolov by the time the Russian cum Yank cum Russian retired in round one. Nieminen required 5 sets to best Dudi Sela. Thats speaks enough for me. Fognini 1pt 4/5 

Kumkhum  v Barthel: Purely a bit of a speculative one here. No strong opinion on either player. I certainly wouldn't be afraid to oppose Barthel by any means and if Kumkhum can take out Petra Kvitova, then I think 13/8 to take out Barthel sounds pretty good to me. Kumkhum 1pt 13/8

Li v Bencic: I really like the young Swiss here and I am going with a 2 point play on the +6.5 games @11/10. She will need to serve well which is not her best asset by any means but here general all-court game and return should give her a chance. I also think she will like the pace that Na Li is bound to provide. Also going with 1pt @ 6/1 Na Li to win 2-1

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Come back tomorrow for Day 4 picks.

Until then, Cheers!

Australian Open Day 2

Day 1 was decent if not spectacular with plus 4 points the return. Cutting straight to the chase, here are day 2 picks:

Mens:

Kyrgios v Becker: I am going to take a bit of a chance on the young Aussie who is by all accounts a star in the making here. Becker's form has been very poor recently while Kyrgios pushed Verdasco to a final set tie break in Kooyong last week and will have the Aussie support firmly in his corner. With the heat as strong as it is Down Under, I will be favouring the Aussies in  matches like this where any advantage could swing the issue. Take Kyrgios at 10/11. 1pt Kyrgios

Seppi v Hewitt: There a few bets I will recommend in this one. The head to head is tied at 3-3 and I reckon Seppi is a bit under-rated at the moment while Hewitt is possibly a little over-rated after his win over Federer in Brisbane. First of all I like Seppi +6.5 games @ 8/11 for 2pts. I will also have 1pt on this one going the full 5 sets at 7/2 with Hills and a small 1pt bet on Hewitt to win 3-2 @ 6/1 with Stan James. Despite Seppi's seemingly poor form, this is a slam, he's 20 odd spots ahead of Hewitt in the rankings, and all the pressure is on Hewitt for this one. No pressure on Seppi.

Kamke v Sock: 2 points win on Kamke here @ 8/11. I thought Kamke was excellent in Doha and I thought Sock was pathetic in Auckland in his match against Bautista Agut. The 5 set format doesn't suit Sock in my opinion and I'm happy to oppose him here.

Murray v Soeda: I like Soeda with +9.5 games handicap here @ even money with 365. Soeda is a decent player and Murray is not the Murray of last year just yet. 2pts play.

Nadal v Tomic: While I think Nadal will win the match, I cannot possibly see why Tomic is a 12/1 shot. He is a superb shotmaker and can be so so dangerous, especially at home in Australia. Nadal got the worst possible draw he could have gotten and there a few bets I like here. I will have 1pt on Tomic to win @ 12/1. I will have 5 points, a max bet, on Tomic +8.5 games @ 8/13 with Bet365, and I will also have 3 points on Tomic to win a set @ 6/4 with either Ladbrokes or Skybet. Potentially a week-changing match here tipping wise! Tomic needs to serve big and remain agressive. I am confident he will do both.

Womens:

Pereira v Pavlyuchenkova: I will have 1 pt win on Pereira here @ 7/2 purely since her opponent is still not fully recovered from injury. Make sure to back it with a bookies who honours bets after one set has been played or even better, after one ball has been struck. 1pt


Come back tomorrow for Wednesday's picks! Follow on Twitter @tennis_backer

Over and out!