Viktor Troicki proved a great pick on Friday at Roland Garros with a straight set win over Marin Cilic @ odds of 7/2 on Betfair. To be honest, it was the only highlight of the day, because, despite a great showing, Benneteau failed to get a set against Federer on Chatrier, while Seppi went down pretty easily against Almagro.
I am pretty excited about tomorrow's matches, as the tournament gets down to the business stages! There are several matches I am interested in having a bet on, and several more where I will be merely spectating. It was interesting to see Rafa blow the tournament organisers out of the water today by calling the match scheduling at this tournament "a joke". Nadal's beef seems to be at the fact that Fabio Fognini will have the benefit of 24 hours more rest than he will before they meet tomorrow. Nadal was rained off yesterday and never took to the court against Klizan, while Fabulous Fabio completed his rout of Lukas Rosol before the rains came. To be honest, I think Nadal is blowing a lot of hot air here - it rained and there is no roof. Simple as that! Federer said pretty much the same when asked about Rafa's comments today, and argued that more than 50% of players didn't play as scheduled yesterday.
Anyway, looking at tomorrow's tennis in the French capital, there are three matches where I will be recommending an match winner bet:
Paire v Nishikori: this is quite the match up and probably the match I am most looking forward to tomorrow. Both have had some excellent highlights in their respective clay court seasons over the past few months, particularly Madrid and the win over Federer for Kei, and Rome for Benoit. To be honest, I think Paire is still at an earlier stage in his development than Kei is and for that reason, among others, I will be going for Nishikori tomorrow. I do think the match will be close, but Kei is available @ 2.20 on Betfair and I will be going for that. In terms of baseline battles, I think Kei shades it just because he is so solid off both wings while Paire is very reliant on the backhand. In my opinion, if Nishikori plays his best tennis, or close to it, then he wins this match. I trust he will, and I recommend him @ 2.20 to progress.
Isner v Haas: John Isner came through a tough 5 setter today against Ryan Harrison, and, while it might be tough for him from a physical point of view, I think it demonstrates his desire and will to win. He rallied from two sets down, and I think he is overpriced against Tommy Haas tomorrow. I am not saying for sure he will beat the veteran German, but I think Haas has played better tennis this season than he is right now and I think Isner often plays his best stuff around Roland Garros. Isner leads the head to head 3-2 and I think he will prove a handful again for Haas tomorrow. Take Isner @ 3.60 on Betfair and trade it off if he gets up a set or two. In a neutral rally, Tommy Haas is the more complete player but it is up to Isner to serve big and bully his opponent when he has the chance.
Youzhny v Tipsarevic: I have been impressed by Mikhail Youzhny this clay court season and I am going to tip him to progress tomorrow in a match where he begins as a marginal favourite @ 1.85. He shares a 3-3 head to head record with Tipsarevic but the Serb has been in poor form this season and had a marathon five setter with Fernando Verdasco today. Youzhny took out Federico Delbonis and he is a proper clay courter in his own right. This is one I am looking forward to as I love Youzhny's game. Take him to come through @ 1.85 on Betfair.
Other match winners in my book tomorrow will be: Nadal, Djokovic, Gasquet, Kohlschreiber, and Wawrinka.
Just a quick note on the Djokovic - Dimitrov match: that will be an absolute must see. The Bulgarian will take a set or maybe even two as his game matches up very well with Novak but I would be very surprised if Dimitrov has the physical capability to come through this one. Keep an eye on it though - it is the tie of the round and could well be the match of the tournament. Djokovic in 5!
Until tomorrow, over and out :)
Friday 31 May 2013
Thursday 30 May 2013
Roland Garros Friday Week 1
Thursday at Roland Garros was another rain-ravaged day, which saw us finish with one win, one loss, and one null and void from our three selections. So, all in all, you could call it a bad day, certainly compared to yesterday where we had 4 from 4. Djokovic was at his brutal best against Guido Pella so we missed the handicap there, although I feel Pella didn't show up to an extent as well. Fognini hammered Lukas Rosol as we said he would. He is a far better clay courter and now goes on to meet probably the great Rafa Nadal where Fognini's run will come to a grinding halt. And then, lastly, Dimitry Tursonov retired when the second set tie-break was just about to get underway against Victor Hanescu, which was another disappointment.
Looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, we are going to be in for a jam-packed day to try get this schedule of play back on track. There are not many matches I have recommendations for but I will try my best with two or three:
Federer v Benneteau: Julien Benneteau has always given Roger Federer trouble. Their head to head stands at 4-2 to the Swiss, but of the four he won, he could have lost at least two of them. I am going to go for Benneteau to take at least one set tomorrow in front of his home crowd. Benneteau knows how to play Federer - he is always aggressive against him, and, much like when Federer plays Rafa, Roger sometimes makes unusual errors when he meets Benneteau. Benneteau, I must admit, is more of a threat on hard or grass than on clay, but I think a lay of Federer to win 3-0 @ 1.52 on Betfair is a very good value bet and one I will be going for. Roger in 4 or 5.
Tipsarevic v Verdasco: I am going to venture into a place this blog has never gone before by recommending Fernando Verdasco to win a match. I think his clay court credentials are far superior to an out-of-form Janko Tipsarevic, who has struggled to win any match since the Australian Open this year. Tipsy is not a clay courter and I have been impressed with Verdasco in Rome so I will recommend him to win this one @ 1.80 on Betfair.
Cilic v Troicki: I am recommending Viktor Troicki in this one because his SP is too big @ 4.50 on Betfair. He has won the last two encounters with Cilic, and he would be more suited to clay than the man from Croatia. Troicki's form has been improving, and, with an SP like this, you will be in a nice position to trade should he get up a set or two. Definitely worth a bet.
Seppi v Almagro: Much like the Cilic/Troicki match, I think the SP here is a little generous. This is a match which at first glance you would say Almagro should win. But, when you delve a little further, Seppi has never lost to Almagro, and Almagro has been under-performing all season on the clay courts. When Almagro has never beaten someone, much like his record v Youzhny, then it can get in on his head, and I think Seppi might spring a bit of a surprise tomorrow. The Italian's odds are 4.70 on Betfair and I can't pass that. Even if he gets up a set, you will have great trading opportunities, so take the 4.70 available on Seppi and roll with it!
Other winners tomorrow should include: Haas, Janowicz, Isner, Nadal, Gasquet, Ferrer, Raonic, Monfils, Simon and Tsonga. Hope it's a good day, keep an eye on it in-play, and trade out if you get a chance, particularly on Seppi and Troicki!
Over and out :)
Looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, we are going to be in for a jam-packed day to try get this schedule of play back on track. There are not many matches I have recommendations for but I will try my best with two or three:
Federer v Benneteau: Julien Benneteau has always given Roger Federer trouble. Their head to head stands at 4-2 to the Swiss, but of the four he won, he could have lost at least two of them. I am going to go for Benneteau to take at least one set tomorrow in front of his home crowd. Benneteau knows how to play Federer - he is always aggressive against him, and, much like when Federer plays Rafa, Roger sometimes makes unusual errors when he meets Benneteau. Benneteau, I must admit, is more of a threat on hard or grass than on clay, but I think a lay of Federer to win 3-0 @ 1.52 on Betfair is a very good value bet and one I will be going for. Roger in 4 or 5.
Tipsarevic v Verdasco: I am going to venture into a place this blog has never gone before by recommending Fernando Verdasco to win a match. I think his clay court credentials are far superior to an out-of-form Janko Tipsarevic, who has struggled to win any match since the Australian Open this year. Tipsy is not a clay courter and I have been impressed with Verdasco in Rome so I will recommend him to win this one @ 1.80 on Betfair.
Cilic v Troicki: I am recommending Viktor Troicki in this one because his SP is too big @ 4.50 on Betfair. He has won the last two encounters with Cilic, and he would be more suited to clay than the man from Croatia. Troicki's form has been improving, and, with an SP like this, you will be in a nice position to trade should he get up a set or two. Definitely worth a bet.
Seppi v Almagro: Much like the Cilic/Troicki match, I think the SP here is a little generous. This is a match which at first glance you would say Almagro should win. But, when you delve a little further, Seppi has never lost to Almagro, and Almagro has been under-performing all season on the clay courts. When Almagro has never beaten someone, much like his record v Youzhny, then it can get in on his head, and I think Seppi might spring a bit of a surprise tomorrow. The Italian's odds are 4.70 on Betfair and I can't pass that. Even if he gets up a set, you will have great trading opportunities, so take the 4.70 available on Seppi and roll with it!
Other winners tomorrow should include: Haas, Janowicz, Isner, Nadal, Gasquet, Ferrer, Raonic, Monfils, Simon and Tsonga. Hope it's a good day, keep an eye on it in-play, and trade out if you get a chance, particularly on Seppi and Troicki!
Over and out :)
Wednesday 29 May 2013
Roland Garros Thursday Week 1
Our recommendations came in at a 100% strike rate today - four out of four. They were all odds-on, 1.80 on Troicki, 1.80 on Zeballos, 1.30 on Raonic, and 1.50 on Seppi but four wins from four can't be argued with and I am confident we are finally on our way to a profitable French Open after a mixed first round! The only downfall of the day today was when Gulbis was taken out of the tournament by Gael Monfils, thus relieving us of our outright dark horse @ 130.00! I didn't see the match due to work, but am led to believe that Gulbis pretty much beat himself and that Monfils was quite content to put the ball back in play. Either way, hats off to Monfils, he has come through the most difficult route in the whole tournament so far and I would now love to see him go deep. In case you haven't seen this clip of him dancing on court in 2011, I will pop it in here as it is well worth a watch! What a legend!
Anyway, getting back on topic and taking a look at tomorrow's matches in the French capital. Here are the few I have a betting interest in and my recommendations:
Djokovic v Pella: I am going to recommend taking Pella +10.5 games in this one @ 1.90 on Betfair. I think his game is better than that and I would expect at least one competitive set which would go a long way towards covering the handicap.
Fognini v Rosol: I think Fabio Fognini is a good bet in this one @ 1.58 on Betfair. His pedigree is far stronger on clay than Rosol's and I think his history and past performances here will inspire him to victory in 4 sets. Both these guys are shotmakers but Fognini is the classier operator and the clay surface plays more to his strengths than Rosol's.
Tursunov v Hanescu: I can't see why Victor Hanescu is the strong favourite for this match. Tursunov leads the head to head, is the classier player, the more complete and dangerous player, and has been in great form this season, as proven by knocking Ferrer out in Barcelona and knocking Dolgopolov out in the first round here. I am making Tursunov my main recommendation of the day tomorrow and I think the 2.46 odds available on Betfair are enormous value indeed. I would rate Hanescu's chances here at the very best at about 50% so by that reasoning, this is a must-back. Take the Russian in 4.
Other winners tomorrow should be: Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Paire, Wawrinka, Youzhny, Janowicz, Nadal, Verdasco, Haas, Isner, Davydenko, and Gasquet. And just to point out that we got every single winner correct on Wednesday apart from Gulbis! So that was a nice record to have, and hopefully we will have a similar outcome tomorrow. Enjoy the tennis and come on Dimitry! Over and out :)
Anyway, getting back on topic and taking a look at tomorrow's matches in the French capital. Here are the few I have a betting interest in and my recommendations:
Djokovic v Pella: I am going to recommend taking Pella +10.5 games in this one @ 1.90 on Betfair. I think his game is better than that and I would expect at least one competitive set which would go a long way towards covering the handicap.
Fognini v Rosol: I think Fabio Fognini is a good bet in this one @ 1.58 on Betfair. His pedigree is far stronger on clay than Rosol's and I think his history and past performances here will inspire him to victory in 4 sets. Both these guys are shotmakers but Fognini is the classier operator and the clay surface plays more to his strengths than Rosol's.
Tursunov v Hanescu: I can't see why Victor Hanescu is the strong favourite for this match. Tursunov leads the head to head, is the classier player, the more complete and dangerous player, and has been in great form this season, as proven by knocking Ferrer out in Barcelona and knocking Dolgopolov out in the first round here. I am making Tursunov my main recommendation of the day tomorrow and I think the 2.46 odds available on Betfair are enormous value indeed. I would rate Hanescu's chances here at the very best at about 50% so by that reasoning, this is a must-back. Take the Russian in 4.
Other winners tomorrow should be: Kohlschreiber, Dimitrov, Nishikori, Paire, Wawrinka, Youzhny, Janowicz, Nadal, Verdasco, Haas, Isner, Davydenko, and Gasquet. And just to point out that we got every single winner correct on Wednesday apart from Gulbis! So that was a nice record to have, and hopefully we will have a similar outcome tomorrow. Enjoy the tennis and come on Dimitry! Over and out :)
Tuesday 28 May 2013
Roland Garros Wednesday Week 1
A later than usual blog today as I was playing some late-night tennis of my own! Today was a better day than we have had in Roland Garros. I am particularly satisfied with the Guido Pella pick over Ivan Dodig and the Federico Delbonis pick, neither of whom were fancied but who both won @ better than 2.58. I actually went for Pella in a five sets so for him to win 12-10 in the fifth was huge. Elsewhere, Denis Istomin sprung a big surprise taking out Florian Mayer, while Pablo Andujar lost the coin-flip that was his match against Mikhail Youzhny. I love The General, and quite dislike Andujar's game, but I still had a feeling that the Spaniard might have the advantage on the clay. Unfortunately, it wasn't to be. Hopefully Youzhny will have a good run now. Finally, Horacio Zeballos is two sets to one up on Vasek Pospisil but will resume a break down in the fourth tomorrow after they were rained off for the night.
We now move onto second round action at the year's French Open, and, as I said all along, sometimes matches can be easier to pick once you get past the first round and have a good feeling of how each player is playing. So, with this in mind, let's have a look at tomorrow's matches of interest:
Troicki v Gimeno-Traver: I think the 1.80 which is available for Viktor Troicki here is just too big. He is a classier operator than Daniel Gimeno-Traver, who, it could be argued, is somewhere at the lower levels of Spanish tennis. DGT knocked out Juan Monaco from two sets down in the first round, but Monaco was less than 48 hours recovered from his title win in Dusseldorf, and he also blew a head gasket to compound matters. Those five sets will still be in DGT's legs and I think Troicki, who had a facile three set win over James Blake, will take full advantage. Take Troicki @ 1.80 to progress, probably in 4 sets.
Zeballos v Pospisil: Horacio Zeballos was a pick in yesterday's blog, but the match was rained off with the South American up 2 sets to 1 but down a break 1-4 in the fourth. Even allowing for Pospisil to take the fourth set, I still like the 1.80 available on Zeballos to progress. I would like my bottom dollar on him to hold his nerve when the bums get squeaky rather than Vasek Pospisil so he is a recommeded bet again @ 1.80 on Betfair.
Raonic v Llodra: Raonic is an absolute cert to beat Llodra and the only reason I am putting it up is because I think the 1.30 available is much more generous than I was expecting. I think his odds will shorten before the match begins so if you are a fan of very short prices, then this is a good one. Employing Ivan Ljubicic in his corner might well prove to be a great move for Milos!
Seppi v Kavcic: Again, Andreas Seppi is just too big here @ 1.50 on Betfair and I thought he would be more like 1/3 so he is a recommended bet to win a match that he definitely should.
They are the only pre-match recommendations for tomorrow. I would also say keep an eye out for Jan Hajek, who could cause an upset against Sam Querry. Certainly, if you are into trading tennis, he could give you some chances tomorrow as his price of nearly 3.00 is appealing. Also tomorrow, I am pretty certain that my man Ernie Gulbis will end the run of Gael Monfils third up on Chatrier. I won't be recommending it because 1.66 is no value but if he can get past Le Monf, the draw looks good for Gulbis. Gulbis needs to continue to be aggressive, to go for his returns, and not to get drawn into long, meaningless exchanges from the baseline. Dictate play and let Monfils tire himself out chasing balls corner to corner. More than anything, Gulbis needs to starve the crowd of any drama because that would play right into the hands of Monfils.
Other players I expect to win tomorrow are: Tsonga, Paire, Federer, Tipsarevic, Benneteau, Ferrer, Simon, Almagro, Robredo, Cilic, Lopez, and Anderson.
Enjoy the tennis and hopefully the rain will stay away! Over and out :)
We now move onto second round action at the year's French Open, and, as I said all along, sometimes matches can be easier to pick once you get past the first round and have a good feeling of how each player is playing. So, with this in mind, let's have a look at tomorrow's matches of interest:
Troicki v Gimeno-Traver: I think the 1.80 which is available for Viktor Troicki here is just too big. He is a classier operator than Daniel Gimeno-Traver, who, it could be argued, is somewhere at the lower levels of Spanish tennis. DGT knocked out Juan Monaco from two sets down in the first round, but Monaco was less than 48 hours recovered from his title win in Dusseldorf, and he also blew a head gasket to compound matters. Those five sets will still be in DGT's legs and I think Troicki, who had a facile three set win over James Blake, will take full advantage. Take Troicki @ 1.80 to progress, probably in 4 sets.
Zeballos v Pospisil: Horacio Zeballos was a pick in yesterday's blog, but the match was rained off with the South American up 2 sets to 1 but down a break 1-4 in the fourth. Even allowing for Pospisil to take the fourth set, I still like the 1.80 available on Zeballos to progress. I would like my bottom dollar on him to hold his nerve when the bums get squeaky rather than Vasek Pospisil so he is a recommeded bet again @ 1.80 on Betfair.
Raonic v Llodra: Raonic is an absolute cert to beat Llodra and the only reason I am putting it up is because I think the 1.30 available is much more generous than I was expecting. I think his odds will shorten before the match begins so if you are a fan of very short prices, then this is a good one. Employing Ivan Ljubicic in his corner might well prove to be a great move for Milos!
Seppi v Kavcic: Again, Andreas Seppi is just too big here @ 1.50 on Betfair and I thought he would be more like 1/3 so he is a recommended bet to win a match that he definitely should.
They are the only pre-match recommendations for tomorrow. I would also say keep an eye out for Jan Hajek, who could cause an upset against Sam Querry. Certainly, if you are into trading tennis, he could give you some chances tomorrow as his price of nearly 3.00 is appealing. Also tomorrow, I am pretty certain that my man Ernie Gulbis will end the run of Gael Monfils third up on Chatrier. I won't be recommending it because 1.66 is no value but if he can get past Le Monf, the draw looks good for Gulbis. Gulbis needs to continue to be aggressive, to go for his returns, and not to get drawn into long, meaningless exchanges from the baseline. Dictate play and let Monfils tire himself out chasing balls corner to corner. More than anything, Gulbis needs to starve the crowd of any drama because that would play right into the hands of Monfils.
Other players I expect to win tomorrow are: Tsonga, Paire, Federer, Tipsarevic, Benneteau, Ferrer, Simon, Almagro, Robredo, Cilic, Lopez, and Anderson.
Enjoy the tennis and hopefully the rain will stay away! Over and out :)
Monday 27 May 2013
Roland Garros Tuesday Week 1
Monday @ Roland Garros saw us enter the winners enclosure a couple of times, while also experiencing a few more frustrating losses. Of the losses today, Paul Henri Mathieu was probably the most frustrating as his was in five sets, at a high level, @ over 3.00 SP. Mathieu is incredibly talented and I really like him but he can sometimes let himself down at crucial moments. Anyway, he was odds-on at one stage in the fifth set today so there was ample opportunity to lay off the bet for a decent profit. John Isner annihilated Carlos Berlocq today like I thought he would. In a sense, that might have been one of the bets of the tournament. He is a big match player, and to get him at odds of 2.12 versus a Mickey Mouse player like Carlos Berlocq was a bit of a surprise to me. Isner played some great stuff today and his route opens up a little now so he could be one to watch for sure. Other positive notes today were Gulbis, Janowicz, and of course Gael Monfils. I availed of the even money on offer for Le Monf just before he lost the third set tie break. While it was looking bleak for a while after that, he came through and made it a green day for me today. More importantly, he also took Tomas Berdych out of the Gulbis draw and that could prove vital. I still think Monfils will provide a stern test for Ernie but he has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks, including today's gruelling five-setter and I am pretty sure Gulbis will prevail.
Just briefly to mention some of the losing bets I have recommended. It would be very easy to pick the vast majority, if not all of the 1.20 and 1.30 winners on any given day, but what we are trying to give here is some value, hence the suggestions @ 3.00 and 2.50 - for example Alund today. I know Mathieu lost today but he began @ 3.10 and was odds on at 1-1 0-30 on the Nieminen serve in the fifth set so that cannot be called a bad recommendation, even accepting that he lost! If you do go for some of the larger-priced recommendations, lay them off if you are in a winning position! That's my advice!
Anyway, looking at tomorrow, I am going to recommend about five or six bets and then give my winner from all the remaining matches:
Delbonis v Reister: Federico Delbonis is available @ 2.58 for this match tomorrow against the German qualifier, Julian Reister. While the qualifying rounds wIl have given Reister a feel for the courts here, I think Delbonis is a more assured clay-courter and I think 2.58 is much too high for his chances. I see this match as a fifty/fifty shot best case for Reister and so I recommend backing the Argentine @ 2.58.
Pella v Dodig: Guido Pella has been making a bit of a name for himself in the last few weeks and months. Just last week he played fantastic tennis in Dusseldorf at the Power Horse Cup and I think the left-handed Argentine will prove a handful for Ivan Dodig. I like Dodig, he is a fighter and I think this could well go five sets. Pella is a bit of a shot-maker and I have been impressed with him lately. I am recommending the confident Argentine @ 2.56 to win the match. It represents good value in my opinion - Pella in five.
Tomic v Hanescu: This is an interesting one! There is no doubt that Bernard Tomic is a better tennis player than Victor Hanescu. There is also no doubt that Victor Hanescu is more comfortable on clay than Bernard Tomic. While I was going to avoid this match altogether, I think Tomic has a bit of a point to prove here and he will be eager to progress in what he sees as "a good draw" for himself. It has been a tumultuous period for Tomic with headbuttgate but Tomic has been practising in Monte-Carlo for the past two weeks on clay courts and he seems quite confident about his chances. Tomic is available @ 3.35 on Betfair and, having seen his young Australian compatriot Kyrgios beating the Worm Stepanek today, I am going to take a chance on him to come through a tight affair with the veteran Romanian.
F Mayer v Istomin: I think Florian Mayer will win this one for sure. He has shown some of his best form on red clay, while Istomin is almost allergic to it. Mayer is 1.51 but it seems a sure thing to me. Anti-Istomins at the ready!
Zeballos v Pospisil: Apart from Novak Djokovic, Horacio Zeballos is the only man to beat Rafa Nadal in 2013. And it was in a final. On clay. While i am not suggesting Nadal was at his best, I am certain that he was at a higher level than Vasek Pospisil will be at tomorrow. Pospisil is a hard court player, Zeballos is at his best on clay. I have the Argentine coming through in 3 or 4 sets tomorrow @ 1.70 on Betfair.
Andujar v Youzhny: This one could be the match of the day tomorrow. I am going with the form man, and the clay court specialist, Pablo Andujar to win it. Andujar in available @ slight odds-against on Betfair and I think he might just have too much for The General tomorrow. I expect it to be close, possibly even a five-setter, but Andujar has the clay court guile and craft, and I think he will sneak this one.
They are all my picks for tomorrow. I was going to recommend Simone Bolelli who plays Yen Hsun Lu, but Bolelli's price has drifted alarmingly. He began @ 1.88 and is now trading @ 2.74 so that is setting off alarm bells for me and I will stay away from it, even though I think the Italian is far better on clay than Lu. Other players I expect to notch up a W beside their name tomorrow are: Djokovic, Tipsarevic, Haas, Paire, Davydenko, Wawrinka, Verdasco, Garcia-Lopez, Kohlscreiber, Dolgopolov, and Dimitrov.
Hopefully we can leave the first round behind tomorrow with a good day and a better idea of who is playing well and who is only making up the numbers! I think it is always easier to pick winners from the second round onwards when you can guage the players in this tournament based on their first round match and see how they will match up with their next opponent. Until this time tomorrow, enjoy the tennis and good luck! :)
Just briefly to mention some of the losing bets I have recommended. It would be very easy to pick the vast majority, if not all of the 1.20 and 1.30 winners on any given day, but what we are trying to give here is some value, hence the suggestions @ 3.00 and 2.50 - for example Alund today. I know Mathieu lost today but he began @ 3.10 and was odds on at 1-1 0-30 on the Nieminen serve in the fifth set so that cannot be called a bad recommendation, even accepting that he lost! If you do go for some of the larger-priced recommendations, lay them off if you are in a winning position! That's my advice!
Anyway, looking at tomorrow, I am going to recommend about five or six bets and then give my winner from all the remaining matches:
Delbonis v Reister: Federico Delbonis is available @ 2.58 for this match tomorrow against the German qualifier, Julian Reister. While the qualifying rounds wIl have given Reister a feel for the courts here, I think Delbonis is a more assured clay-courter and I think 2.58 is much too high for his chances. I see this match as a fifty/fifty shot best case for Reister and so I recommend backing the Argentine @ 2.58.
Pella v Dodig: Guido Pella has been making a bit of a name for himself in the last few weeks and months. Just last week he played fantastic tennis in Dusseldorf at the Power Horse Cup and I think the left-handed Argentine will prove a handful for Ivan Dodig. I like Dodig, he is a fighter and I think this could well go five sets. Pella is a bit of a shot-maker and I have been impressed with him lately. I am recommending the confident Argentine @ 2.56 to win the match. It represents good value in my opinion - Pella in five.
Tomic v Hanescu: This is an interesting one! There is no doubt that Bernard Tomic is a better tennis player than Victor Hanescu. There is also no doubt that Victor Hanescu is more comfortable on clay than Bernard Tomic. While I was going to avoid this match altogether, I think Tomic has a bit of a point to prove here and he will be eager to progress in what he sees as "a good draw" for himself. It has been a tumultuous period for Tomic with headbuttgate but Tomic has been practising in Monte-Carlo for the past two weeks on clay courts and he seems quite confident about his chances. Tomic is available @ 3.35 on Betfair and, having seen his young Australian compatriot Kyrgios beating the Worm Stepanek today, I am going to take a chance on him to come through a tight affair with the veteran Romanian.
F Mayer v Istomin: I think Florian Mayer will win this one for sure. He has shown some of his best form on red clay, while Istomin is almost allergic to it. Mayer is 1.51 but it seems a sure thing to me. Anti-Istomins at the ready!
Zeballos v Pospisil: Apart from Novak Djokovic, Horacio Zeballos is the only man to beat Rafa Nadal in 2013. And it was in a final. On clay. While i am not suggesting Nadal was at his best, I am certain that he was at a higher level than Vasek Pospisil will be at tomorrow. Pospisil is a hard court player, Zeballos is at his best on clay. I have the Argentine coming through in 3 or 4 sets tomorrow @ 1.70 on Betfair.
Andujar v Youzhny: This one could be the match of the day tomorrow. I am going with the form man, and the clay court specialist, Pablo Andujar to win it. Andujar in available @ slight odds-against on Betfair and I think he might just have too much for The General tomorrow. I expect it to be close, possibly even a five-setter, but Andujar has the clay court guile and craft, and I think he will sneak this one.
They are all my picks for tomorrow. I was going to recommend Simone Bolelli who plays Yen Hsun Lu, but Bolelli's price has drifted alarmingly. He began @ 1.88 and is now trading @ 2.74 so that is setting off alarm bells for me and I will stay away from it, even though I think the Italian is far better on clay than Lu. Other players I expect to notch up a W beside their name tomorrow are: Djokovic, Tipsarevic, Haas, Paire, Davydenko, Wawrinka, Verdasco, Garcia-Lopez, Kohlscreiber, Dolgopolov, and Dimitrov.
Hopefully we can leave the first round behind tomorrow with a good day and a better idea of who is playing well and who is only making up the numbers! I think it is always easier to pick winners from the second round onwards when you can guage the players in this tournament based on their first round match and see how they will match up with their next opponent. Until this time tomorrow, enjoy the tennis and good luck! :)
Sunday 26 May 2013
Roland Garros Monday Week 1
So, today was a mixed bag to begin Roland Garros 2013. In a way, it doesn't matter because there were very few betting opportunities with so few matches today anyway, but the two we recommended failed to deliver. Personally, Gilles Simon made up for it as I backed him two sets down against Lleyton Hewitt who turned back the years for the first two sets. But Pablo Carreno Busta lost to Federer in straight sets. I thought PCB might get a set and make it uncomfortbale for Fed, but to be honest, Federer looked fantastic today. Carreno-Busta can leave with his head held high - he will have a good career and there was no shame in the way he played today. Then Steve Darcis lost in four to Llodra and looked just as uncomfortable on the clay as Llodra did. Llodra will go no further either but that is of little consolation now!
So, we have a bit of ground to make up over the coming fortnight, and we will start tomorrow. I have already given my predictions for all the first round matches which can be seen here but, just to refresh, the selections I have recommmeded for tomorrow are as follows:
Mathieu to beat Nieminen (3.05)
Alund to beat Roger-Vasselin (3.50)
Isner to beat Berlocq (2.12)
Janowicz to beat Ramos (1.75)
Melzer to beat Sijsling (2.24)
I have given my reasoning behind all of those in yesterday's blog and I am confident that most of those will deliver, particularly Isner & Melzer. The only way Melzer will lose here is if he is carrying some sort of injury or illness and I haven't heard that he is. There are some lovely prices in there too, like Alund and Mathieu. Alund, in particular could surprise a lot of people - he is made for clay. If any of the longer shots like that put themselves into a winning position, lay it off for sure. You have to be smart in betting and take your guaranteed profit when the chance arises. Less stress, less grey hairs!!
Other players I expect to win tomorrow but won't be recommending a pre-match bet on are: Nadal, Berdych, Tsonga, Gasquet, Benneteau, Almagro, Gulbis, Klizan, Nishikori, Cilic, Rosol, Fognini, Monaco, Stepanek, Haase, Robredo, Giraldo, Kuznetsov, and Montanes.
I will update the blog for the final first round matches tomorrow. Until then, best of luck tomorrow and enjoy the tennis! Over and out :)
So, we have a bit of ground to make up over the coming fortnight, and we will start tomorrow. I have already given my predictions for all the first round matches which can be seen here but, just to refresh, the selections I have recommmeded for tomorrow are as follows:
Mathieu to beat Nieminen (3.05)
Alund to beat Roger-Vasselin (3.50)
Isner to beat Berlocq (2.12)
Janowicz to beat Ramos (1.75)
Melzer to beat Sijsling (2.24)
I have given my reasoning behind all of those in yesterday's blog and I am confident that most of those will deliver, particularly Isner & Melzer. The only way Melzer will lose here is if he is carrying some sort of injury or illness and I haven't heard that he is. There are some lovely prices in there too, like Alund and Mathieu. Alund, in particular could surprise a lot of people - he is made for clay. If any of the longer shots like that put themselves into a winning position, lay it off for sure. You have to be smart in betting and take your guaranteed profit when the chance arises. Less stress, less grey hairs!!
Other players I expect to win tomorrow but won't be recommending a pre-match bet on are: Nadal, Berdych, Tsonga, Gasquet, Benneteau, Almagro, Gulbis, Klizan, Nishikori, Cilic, Rosol, Fognini, Monaco, Stepanek, Haase, Robredo, Giraldo, Kuznetsov, and Montanes.
I will update the blog for the final first round matches tomorrow. Until then, best of luck tomorrow and enjoy the tennis! Over and out :)
Saturday 25 May 2013
French Open 1st round selections
Having done a preview and analysis of the overall draw for the French Open, here are the first round bets I am recommending. I would obviously have an opinion on who will win every match each day, but the only way we will recommend a bet is if the player represents value, i.e. his price is bigger than I think his chances represent. So, here are all of my first round picks:
Sunday:
Federer v Carreno-Busta: Unfortunately for Federer, he drew the best of the qualifiers in Pablo Carreno-Busta. This guy is a clay courter through and through and will be a factor in clay court tennis for the next few years. I am not for one second saying that he will beat Federer here, but I am going to recommend a lay in this one. Lay Federer 3-0 @ 1.52. That means we only need Carreno-Busta to get one set, which I think he will. I wouldn't be surprised if he took the opening set before losing in 4.
Darcis v Llodra: Steve Darcis has come through the qualifying rounds here, and, as such, he will have a big advantage over Llodra. Llodra is one of my very favourite players in the world. But he is a bit of a pig on clay! He really is a fish out of water on the red stuff. Obviously he can't get his feet set properly on clay for the volley - clay doesn't suit his game style at all. I am going for Darcis in this one. He is available @ 2.28 on Betfair and has been known to deliver on the big stage in the past - most noticeably against Berdych at the Olympics! I fancy him in 3 or 4.
They are the only two Sunday recommendations. I won't be having any other pre match bets but I fancy the following to win tomorrow : Kavcic, Anderson, Raonic, Sousa, Bautista-Agut, Seppi, Simon, Chardy, Munoz De La Nava, Hajek, Querrey, Ferrer, Troicki, and Granollers.
Monday and Tuesday first round:
Alund v Roger-Vasselin: Like Carreno-Busta, Martin Alund of Argentina has been another revelation this year. He is an out and out dirtballer and I think he has far more than the 33% chance of winning this one than his odds suggest. He is available at even better than 2/1 on Betfair and I will recommend him at those prices against a player more comortable on a hard court. Alund to progress.
Nieminen v Mathieu: Mathieu is available here @ 3.00 which, again, seems too big to me. Nieminen just came off a final loss in Dusseldorf and now face a quick tournaround against a Frenchman who can beat the best on his day. I think Mathieu will prefer the clay than the Finn and I will take PHM to come through here.
Dodig v Pella: I fancy Guido Pella, another Argentine newcomer to upset the odds here against Ivan Dodig. Pella has looked super in recent weeks and I think he can beat the Croatian journeyman but it could be five sets as Dodig is relentless. Pella to win @ 2.50
Berlocq v Isner: Carlos Berlocq enters this match as favourite, but, to be honest, I think the match is on Isner's racket. Isner has no option but to step up his game after a few poor weeks. This is a grand slam, and one where Isner has a good record. Indeed he was 2 sets to 1 up on Rafa here in 2011 so he will feel good about his chances. I don't like Berlocq anyway and he is a bit of choke artist. I will definitely go for Isner here, probably in 4 sets, but he is a definite recommendation @ 2.12 on Betfair.
Kubot v Teixeira: Teixeira has looked good in qualifying and I think the home support could well help him to a win over Lukas Kubot. Kubot can be very up and down, but much like Berlocq, he is very unreliable. I like the 3.05 on offer for Teixeira and that is a recommended bet.
Youzhny v Andujar: I have thought long and hard about this one. On one hand I see a player who I really like, and whose form has been decent, and on the other, I see Pablo Andujar. I don't particularly like Andujar. His game is very very good in terms of technique and ability, but he can be so frail mentally. He is the kind of player who could be on fire, but could lose it all in the blink of an eye. He was 5-0 up in the third against Rafa here a few years back and still lost the set! Howerve, I have seen plenty of him in recent weeks and I think the clay will give him the egde over the Russian General. It will be a close match but I am going for Andujar to progress @ 1.96
Ramos v Janowicz: I like JJ to win this one. He is 1.77 on the exchanges agianst a player that he was beaten by only a few weeks ago, but I think Janowicz will rise to the bigger occasion better than Albert Ramos. Janowicz, to his credit is on fire the last week or two, so I think he will hit through Ramos in 3 or 4 sets.
Mayer v Istomin: Florian Mayer will beat Denis Istomin but is only 1.50 to do so. He is far more comfortable on clay than Istomin, who is one of my favourite players. Mayer ran Murray exceptionally close in Madrid, and he will beat Istomin here too. Mayer has taken his anti-Istomins!
Bolelli v Lu: Yen Hsun Lu is not as adept on red clay as a player like Simone Bolelli, and yet the Italian is available @ 1.90 on Betfair. If this was on grass or even hard, I would probably favour the man from Chinese Taipei, but this is the French Open and Bolelli will win.
Delbonis v Reister: Julien Reister came through the qualifiers here with flying colours, but I think Federico Delbonis will come through here. Delbonis is a much-improved clay courter from South America and, if this match was taking place in the Copa Claro or something like that, I think Delbonis would be favourite. I will go for Delbonis @ 2.55 which I think is terrific value!
Pospisil v Zeballos: It's almost becoming a bit of a South American theme here, but I think Horacio Zeballos - conqueror of Rafael Nadal in Argentina earlier this year will beat Vasek Posposil. Pospisil is far more comfortable on hard courts. Zeballos will win this match, I think pretty comfortably, and is available @ 1.75 on Betfair.
Sijsling v Melzer: This is a really big one for me. I cannot comprehend how people think Sijsling will beat Jurgen Melzer. Melzer, whose form has been less than brilliant recently, is a clay courter. He has been in the semi finals here in Paris! Sijsling is a grass courter. He is alien on clay. The only reason he is even close to Melzer in the betting here is because he had a good showing in Dusseldorf this week, when nobody else gave a s**t!! There is not a chance in my book that Melzer will lose to Igor Sijsling and he is going to be a maximum recommendation @ a whopping 2.10 on Betfair. Sijsling's main weapon is his serve, and Melzer's best weapon is arguably his return. He has always done well against big servers and he will also negate Sijsling's left handedness - being a lefty himself, which takes away another on the Dutchman's assets! I expect Melzer in easy straights.
So, they are all my first round recommendations - I will post each day who I think will win the following day's matches until the second round, when I will put up more recommendations. Until then, enjoy the tennis. Come on Gulbis!! :)
Sunday:
Federer v Carreno-Busta: Unfortunately for Federer, he drew the best of the qualifiers in Pablo Carreno-Busta. This guy is a clay courter through and through and will be a factor in clay court tennis for the next few years. I am not for one second saying that he will beat Federer here, but I am going to recommend a lay in this one. Lay Federer 3-0 @ 1.52. That means we only need Carreno-Busta to get one set, which I think he will. I wouldn't be surprised if he took the opening set before losing in 4.
Darcis v Llodra: Steve Darcis has come through the qualifying rounds here, and, as such, he will have a big advantage over Llodra. Llodra is one of my very favourite players in the world. But he is a bit of a pig on clay! He really is a fish out of water on the red stuff. Obviously he can't get his feet set properly on clay for the volley - clay doesn't suit his game style at all. I am going for Darcis in this one. He is available @ 2.28 on Betfair and has been known to deliver on the big stage in the past - most noticeably against Berdych at the Olympics! I fancy him in 3 or 4.
They are the only two Sunday recommendations. I won't be having any other pre match bets but I fancy the following to win tomorrow : Kavcic, Anderson, Raonic, Sousa, Bautista-Agut, Seppi, Simon, Chardy, Munoz De La Nava, Hajek, Querrey, Ferrer, Troicki, and Granollers.
Monday and Tuesday first round:
Alund v Roger-Vasselin: Like Carreno-Busta, Martin Alund of Argentina has been another revelation this year. He is an out and out dirtballer and I think he has far more than the 33% chance of winning this one than his odds suggest. He is available at even better than 2/1 on Betfair and I will recommend him at those prices against a player more comortable on a hard court. Alund to progress.
Nieminen v Mathieu: Mathieu is available here @ 3.00 which, again, seems too big to me. Nieminen just came off a final loss in Dusseldorf and now face a quick tournaround against a Frenchman who can beat the best on his day. I think Mathieu will prefer the clay than the Finn and I will take PHM to come through here.
Dodig v Pella: I fancy Guido Pella, another Argentine newcomer to upset the odds here against Ivan Dodig. Pella has looked super in recent weeks and I think he can beat the Croatian journeyman but it could be five sets as Dodig is relentless. Pella to win @ 2.50
Berlocq v Isner: Carlos Berlocq enters this match as favourite, but, to be honest, I think the match is on Isner's racket. Isner has no option but to step up his game after a few poor weeks. This is a grand slam, and one where Isner has a good record. Indeed he was 2 sets to 1 up on Rafa here in 2011 so he will feel good about his chances. I don't like Berlocq anyway and he is a bit of choke artist. I will definitely go for Isner here, probably in 4 sets, but he is a definite recommendation @ 2.12 on Betfair.
Kubot v Teixeira: Teixeira has looked good in qualifying and I think the home support could well help him to a win over Lukas Kubot. Kubot can be very up and down, but much like Berlocq, he is very unreliable. I like the 3.05 on offer for Teixeira and that is a recommended bet.
Youzhny v Andujar: I have thought long and hard about this one. On one hand I see a player who I really like, and whose form has been decent, and on the other, I see Pablo Andujar. I don't particularly like Andujar. His game is very very good in terms of technique and ability, but he can be so frail mentally. He is the kind of player who could be on fire, but could lose it all in the blink of an eye. He was 5-0 up in the third against Rafa here a few years back and still lost the set! Howerve, I have seen plenty of him in recent weeks and I think the clay will give him the egde over the Russian General. It will be a close match but I am going for Andujar to progress @ 1.96
Ramos v Janowicz: I like JJ to win this one. He is 1.77 on the exchanges agianst a player that he was beaten by only a few weeks ago, but I think Janowicz will rise to the bigger occasion better than Albert Ramos. Janowicz, to his credit is on fire the last week or two, so I think he will hit through Ramos in 3 or 4 sets.
Mayer v Istomin: Florian Mayer will beat Denis Istomin but is only 1.50 to do so. He is far more comfortable on clay than Istomin, who is one of my favourite players. Mayer ran Murray exceptionally close in Madrid, and he will beat Istomin here too. Mayer has taken his anti-Istomins!
Bolelli v Lu: Yen Hsun Lu is not as adept on red clay as a player like Simone Bolelli, and yet the Italian is available @ 1.90 on Betfair. If this was on grass or even hard, I would probably favour the man from Chinese Taipei, but this is the French Open and Bolelli will win.
Delbonis v Reister: Julien Reister came through the qualifiers here with flying colours, but I think Federico Delbonis will come through here. Delbonis is a much-improved clay courter from South America and, if this match was taking place in the Copa Claro or something like that, I think Delbonis would be favourite. I will go for Delbonis @ 2.55 which I think is terrific value!
Pospisil v Zeballos: It's almost becoming a bit of a South American theme here, but I think Horacio Zeballos - conqueror of Rafael Nadal in Argentina earlier this year will beat Vasek Posposil. Pospisil is far more comfortable on hard courts. Zeballos will win this match, I think pretty comfortably, and is available @ 1.75 on Betfair.
Sijsling v Melzer: This is a really big one for me. I cannot comprehend how people think Sijsling will beat Jurgen Melzer. Melzer, whose form has been less than brilliant recently, is a clay courter. He has been in the semi finals here in Paris! Sijsling is a grass courter. He is alien on clay. The only reason he is even close to Melzer in the betting here is because he had a good showing in Dusseldorf this week, when nobody else gave a s**t!! There is not a chance in my book that Melzer will lose to Igor Sijsling and he is going to be a maximum recommendation @ a whopping 2.10 on Betfair. Sijsling's main weapon is his serve, and Melzer's best weapon is arguably his return. He has always done well against big servers and he will also negate Sijsling's left handedness - being a lefty himself, which takes away another on the Dutchman's assets! I expect Melzer in easy straights.
So, they are all my first round recommendations - I will post each day who I think will win the following day's matches until the second round, when I will put up more recommendations. Until then, enjoy the tennis. Come on Gulbis!! :)
French Open 2013 Men's Draw Analysis and Predictions
So, here we have it. The men's draw for the 2013 French Open. First of all, let me say that it is refreshing to see that Rafa and Nole weren't 'kept apart' as was the thinking of quite a few sceptical tennis fans, myself included. While the world (and the organisers) won't get the Rafa v Nole final they all want to see, there is now a HUGE opportunity for so many guys in the bottom half to make the run of a lifetime all the way to a grand slam final.
Robin Soderling is the only guy to have made finals here, losing on two occasions - once to Roger, once to Rafa. Apart from the Swede, only Rafa, Roger, and Novak have been in finals here in recent years. It is almost guaranteed that either Rafa or Novak will be in the final again this year. But, having both been drawn in the top half of the draw, the question is, who will they meet in the final?
I am going to go through the draw quarter by quarter and give my thoughts on what the QF, SF, and final line ups will be. Here goes:
Q1: This quarter sees the world number one Novak Djokovic along with several tough opponents and some great potential match ups. Djokovic's biggest threat will, no doubt, come from the Bulgarian prodigy that is Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov has been majestic this year and, as we all know, he beat Nole in Madrid. When Toni Nadal was asked recently about his list of favourites for this tournament, Dimitrov's name was a forerunner. He has all the weaponry required, but, I think over five sets he is more likely to break down physically than Novak or the other top guys, and, for that reason, I would still fancy Nole to come past him, but it will be the tie of the third round for sure. Tommy Haas, another of Nole's conquerors in 2013 is also housed in this section, but to be honest I don't see him being a factor at this tournament. John Isner, Pablo Andujar, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexandr Dolgopolov are other big names or form players in Q1, but, the smart money is surely on Novak Djokovic emerging and taking hjis place in the semi final. In the quarter final, I see Nole having to overcome one of Andujar, Haas, or Isner, depending on who shows up most of those three. I think Isner has the biggest say, in terms of the match being on his racket, but Andujar has shown the best clay court tennis of the three in recent weeks and it is not beyond comprehension that he could make the QF here. Djokovic to progress with only Dimitrov testing him properly.
Q2: Nadal will be very happy with his quarter, as there is pretty much nobody in there who can beat him. He will be annoyed at being in Nole's half of the draw, but, to win these titles, one must beat the best players anyway, so perhaps it is irrelevant at what stage he meets the Serb. Nadal's route out of this quarter is likely to be: Brands, Klizan, Fognini, Paire, and Wawrinka. Of those, I think Benoit Paire will give him the most bother, mainly due to his super backhand, which is so important to have against the left-handed Nadal. Wawrinka is the most talented in this section, apart from Nadal of course, but Nadal tends to have a very easy time against him, as we saw in the final of Madrid in the Magic Box. Other big names in this quarter include Nishikori, Janowicz, and Gasquet, but I think the QF line up from this one will be Rafa v Wawrinka. Expect Rafa to come through without the loss of a set.
Q3: The one hope I had before the draw was made was that Ernests Gulbis would somehow avoid Rafa and Nole, which I though would be extremely unlikely. However, the tennis Gods were on my side yesterday and so the wish has been granted. Gulbis is drawn in the bottom half, and so, he has a super chance to make a run to the final here. I can see he still has a very tough draw, but he is now one of maybe six guys who will have their hopes fixed firmly on a final appearance Sunday week. David Ferrer is the top seed in this quarter, and the favourite to make it through to the semis. This third quarter is between Gulbis, Berdych, Almagro and Ferrer. I am going to rule out Almagro as I have been far from impressed with his tennis this season. Berdych has been the most unlucky player in the draw, with a first round tie against Gael Monfils followed by another Grand Slam match up against Ernests Gulbis! And we all know how the last one ended. I think Ferrer will make the quarters for sure. He will have to overcome the winner of Raonic v Anderson but that will be his only test en route to the quarters. Who he will meet there, however, is what I am more interetsed in. I think Berdych will beat Monfils in the tie of the first round. Then, I think Gulbis will beat Berdych in the tie of the second round! Gulbis has been in super form this season and I think all knowledgable tennis fans will admit that his display against Nadal in Rome pushed the Spaniard to the pin of his collar. Berdych could not come close to that in the semi final. Gulbis will not be one bit afraid of Berdych and I will take my man to progress there. Should Gulbis come through that match, his route to a QF with Ferrer will be Tommy Robredo followed by Nico Almagro. Gulbis hits a better ball that either of those two Spaniards and I think Ernie will reach the quarters against Ferrer. At that stage, it will be a battle between the only two guys (apart from Nole) who have tested Rafa this year on clay. To be honest, I would rather if Gulbis was drawn to meet Federer rather than Ferrer at this stage but I still think he is capable of beating the Spanish number 2. I know that Federer would much rather face Ferrer in a semi final than Gulbis, so take that as an indication of Gulbis' level. I am going out on a limb and taking Gulbis to come out of this quarter after a titanic QF match agianst David Ferrer.
Q4: This quarter has been absolutely set up for Federer. It is a dream draw for him. The only half threat he will face en route to the QF will be Julien Benneteau, who has a decent record against the Swiss, but who is pretty much rubbish on clay. I expect big Jo Tsonga to meet Federer in the quarters, with probably Federer coming through. If it was on grass I would give Tsonga a much better chance but I think Federer will beat him on clay and I am going for Federer to take his place in the semis against (hopefully) Gulbis.
Semi finals: So, I have Rafa v Nole in semi final one, as I'm sure everyone in the world of tennis has as well. It will be an unbelievable match, and the winner will be a massive favourite to claim the title on the Sunday. I think that Djokovic can beat Rafa for sure. The smart money is on Nadal, as the odds are in his favour. He hasn't lost since 2009 here, has won the title here seven times, and is in great form. Should this match up materialise, I will do a more thorough analysis of it then, but for now, suffice it to say that one of these guys, and more than likely Rafa will be in the final.
The second semi is where my interest lies. I have Federer coming up agianst Ernests Gulbis. And I think if that match up does happen then I think Gulbis wins. I actually think that if Federer makes the semis here and plays either Gulbis or Ferrer, he would lose to either of them. I think those two guys have shown far more on red dirt this season than Federer has. Federer is Federer after all, but I think he is still getting too much praise and that his odds are too short at times, just because of what he has done in the past. Federer is not the same player anymore, he is in decline, and I will be opposing him in the semis if he comes up against Ferrer or Gulbis. It is a bit of a dream perhaps, but I have a Nadal - Gulbis final in my draw! Nadal would have to be heavily favoured if it came down to that, but let's take things one step at a time here. Gulbis has a shot. He avoided the big two. Ferrer has a shot. He's another guy who avoided the big two. One of them will take advantage of it and make the final here. Unless Djokovic can upset the odds, then Rafa will win it, I am pretty sure of that.
My two recommended outright bets are Gulbis @ 100.00 on the exchanges to lay off were he to make a final. I actually recommended backing Gulbis last week when he was availbable @ 180.00. Not anymore!!
David Ferrer can be had @ 26.00 also on Betfair which is good value too as his route to the quarters at least is pretty much assured. There is nobody else I really like in the outright market. Enjoy the tennis. I am going to do a seperate post with first round picks after this one. Hope you enjoyed the draw analysis! Feel free to leave any thoughts or comments below! Over and out :)
Robin Soderling is the only guy to have made finals here, losing on two occasions - once to Roger, once to Rafa. Apart from the Swede, only Rafa, Roger, and Novak have been in finals here in recent years. It is almost guaranteed that either Rafa or Novak will be in the final again this year. But, having both been drawn in the top half of the draw, the question is, who will they meet in the final?
I am going to go through the draw quarter by quarter and give my thoughts on what the QF, SF, and final line ups will be. Here goes:
Q1: This quarter sees the world number one Novak Djokovic along with several tough opponents and some great potential match ups. Djokovic's biggest threat will, no doubt, come from the Bulgarian prodigy that is Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov has been majestic this year and, as we all know, he beat Nole in Madrid. When Toni Nadal was asked recently about his list of favourites for this tournament, Dimitrov's name was a forerunner. He has all the weaponry required, but, I think over five sets he is more likely to break down physically than Novak or the other top guys, and, for that reason, I would still fancy Nole to come past him, but it will be the tie of the third round for sure. Tommy Haas, another of Nole's conquerors in 2013 is also housed in this section, but to be honest I don't see him being a factor at this tournament. John Isner, Pablo Andujar, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexandr Dolgopolov are other big names or form players in Q1, but, the smart money is surely on Novak Djokovic emerging and taking hjis place in the semi final. In the quarter final, I see Nole having to overcome one of Andujar, Haas, or Isner, depending on who shows up most of those three. I think Isner has the biggest say, in terms of the match being on his racket, but Andujar has shown the best clay court tennis of the three in recent weeks and it is not beyond comprehension that he could make the QF here. Djokovic to progress with only Dimitrov testing him properly.
Q2: Nadal will be very happy with his quarter, as there is pretty much nobody in there who can beat him. He will be annoyed at being in Nole's half of the draw, but, to win these titles, one must beat the best players anyway, so perhaps it is irrelevant at what stage he meets the Serb. Nadal's route out of this quarter is likely to be: Brands, Klizan, Fognini, Paire, and Wawrinka. Of those, I think Benoit Paire will give him the most bother, mainly due to his super backhand, which is so important to have against the left-handed Nadal. Wawrinka is the most talented in this section, apart from Nadal of course, but Nadal tends to have a very easy time against him, as we saw in the final of Madrid in the Magic Box. Other big names in this quarter include Nishikori, Janowicz, and Gasquet, but I think the QF line up from this one will be Rafa v Wawrinka. Expect Rafa to come through without the loss of a set.
Q3: The one hope I had before the draw was made was that Ernests Gulbis would somehow avoid Rafa and Nole, which I though would be extremely unlikely. However, the tennis Gods were on my side yesterday and so the wish has been granted. Gulbis is drawn in the bottom half, and so, he has a super chance to make a run to the final here. I can see he still has a very tough draw, but he is now one of maybe six guys who will have their hopes fixed firmly on a final appearance Sunday week. David Ferrer is the top seed in this quarter, and the favourite to make it through to the semis. This third quarter is between Gulbis, Berdych, Almagro and Ferrer. I am going to rule out Almagro as I have been far from impressed with his tennis this season. Berdych has been the most unlucky player in the draw, with a first round tie against Gael Monfils followed by another Grand Slam match up against Ernests Gulbis! And we all know how the last one ended. I think Ferrer will make the quarters for sure. He will have to overcome the winner of Raonic v Anderson but that will be his only test en route to the quarters. Who he will meet there, however, is what I am more interetsed in. I think Berdych will beat Monfils in the tie of the first round. Then, I think Gulbis will beat Berdych in the tie of the second round! Gulbis has been in super form this season and I think all knowledgable tennis fans will admit that his display against Nadal in Rome pushed the Spaniard to the pin of his collar. Berdych could not come close to that in the semi final. Gulbis will not be one bit afraid of Berdych and I will take my man to progress there. Should Gulbis come through that match, his route to a QF with Ferrer will be Tommy Robredo followed by Nico Almagro. Gulbis hits a better ball that either of those two Spaniards and I think Ernie will reach the quarters against Ferrer. At that stage, it will be a battle between the only two guys (apart from Nole) who have tested Rafa this year on clay. To be honest, I would rather if Gulbis was drawn to meet Federer rather than Ferrer at this stage but I still think he is capable of beating the Spanish number 2. I know that Federer would much rather face Ferrer in a semi final than Gulbis, so take that as an indication of Gulbis' level. I am going out on a limb and taking Gulbis to come out of this quarter after a titanic QF match agianst David Ferrer.
Q4: This quarter has been absolutely set up for Federer. It is a dream draw for him. The only half threat he will face en route to the QF will be Julien Benneteau, who has a decent record against the Swiss, but who is pretty much rubbish on clay. I expect big Jo Tsonga to meet Federer in the quarters, with probably Federer coming through. If it was on grass I would give Tsonga a much better chance but I think Federer will beat him on clay and I am going for Federer to take his place in the semis against (hopefully) Gulbis.
Semi finals: So, I have Rafa v Nole in semi final one, as I'm sure everyone in the world of tennis has as well. It will be an unbelievable match, and the winner will be a massive favourite to claim the title on the Sunday. I think that Djokovic can beat Rafa for sure. The smart money is on Nadal, as the odds are in his favour. He hasn't lost since 2009 here, has won the title here seven times, and is in great form. Should this match up materialise, I will do a more thorough analysis of it then, but for now, suffice it to say that one of these guys, and more than likely Rafa will be in the final.
The second semi is where my interest lies. I have Federer coming up agianst Ernests Gulbis. And I think if that match up does happen then I think Gulbis wins. I actually think that if Federer makes the semis here and plays either Gulbis or Ferrer, he would lose to either of them. I think those two guys have shown far more on red dirt this season than Federer has. Federer is Federer after all, but I think he is still getting too much praise and that his odds are too short at times, just because of what he has done in the past. Federer is not the same player anymore, he is in decline, and I will be opposing him in the semis if he comes up against Ferrer or Gulbis. It is a bit of a dream perhaps, but I have a Nadal - Gulbis final in my draw! Nadal would have to be heavily favoured if it came down to that, but let's take things one step at a time here. Gulbis has a shot. He avoided the big two. Ferrer has a shot. He's another guy who avoided the big two. One of them will take advantage of it and make the final here. Unless Djokovic can upset the odds, then Rafa will win it, I am pretty sure of that.
My two recommended outright bets are Gulbis @ 100.00 on the exchanges to lay off were he to make a final. I actually recommended backing Gulbis last week when he was availbable @ 180.00. Not anymore!!
David Ferrer can be had @ 26.00 also on Betfair which is good value too as his route to the quarters at least is pretty much assured. There is nobody else I really like in the outright market. Enjoy the tennis. I am going to do a seperate post with first round picks after this one. Hope you enjoyed the draw analysis! Feel free to leave any thoughts or comments below! Over and out :)
Friday 24 May 2013
Quick RG Update
A full and thorough draw analysis will be posted tomorrow, along with Sunday's recommendations, but here are just some very quick inital thoughts on the draw for the 2013 French Open:
Over & out :)
- I take back everything I ever said about Slam draws being rigged! Good to see Rafa and Nole in the same half. Very surprised, but delighted. Blockbuster SF in store
- Gulbis now has a real chance given his draw. Avoided the big two. That was all I asked and it was granted.
- Federer got a fantastic draw. Won't win the tournament but has a chance at a final, although I don't think he will get there.
- Ferrer odds have to shorten, he is probably the third, if not fourth best in the draw. Represents serious value.
- Berdych v Monfils tie of the round for sure. Expect Berdych, but Le Monf in good form again. Cote d'Azur final tomorrow.
- Plenty of interesting first round recommendations.
Over & out :)
Thursday 23 May 2013
Roland Garros Preview
The draw for the 2013 French Open takes place in Paris tomorrow morning. Until we see the draw and actually go through it with a fine tooth comb, we can merely speculate.
So, speculate we will! The tournament looks like a bit of a shoot-out between Rafa Nadal, the number 3 seed, and Novak Djokovic, the number 1. Nadal's record here speaks for itself. Robin Soderling inflicted his only defeat on these courts in 2009 (although John Isner came close in 2011) and, he comes back as defending champion once again. Djokovic, the world number one, comes into this tournament on the back of upset losses in Madrid and Rome to Dimitrov & Berdych respectively. He did, however, beat Nadal in straight sets in Monte-Carlo to end Nadal's eight year streak there, and that match could have an important bearing on this tournament. I have no doubt that Djokovic will certainly believe in himself here and, he has every right to. Nadal is currently priced @ 1.79 with Djokovic @ 3.35 on the exchanges. Rogere Federer is the next in the betting @ 20/1 and so that gives you some indication of how favoured these two are!
Moving away from Novak and Rafa for a moment, let's take a look at the other contenders. In my book, there are about 3 or 4 other candidates who would be considered as threats. Federer would be an obvious candidate for lots of tennis fans, but, for the slightly more in-tune tennis afficionados, Federer might seem a little washed-up. He looked completely bereft of ideas in his 1 & 3 loss to Nadal in the Rome final, and I am one tennis fan who thinks Federer's best days are a million miles behind him. I think Gulbis Berdych, and Dimitrov all have more of a shout for a title run here than Federer. Wawrinka and David Ferrer have also shown some exceptional form this year and they too are ahead of Federer for me. Indeed, if Ferrer does end up meeting Federer at some stage, I think this will be the time for David, and he will finally get his first win over the Swiss.
Absolutely nobody will want to end up in Ernests Gulbis' quarter, and, looking at it from a Gulbis fan's point of view, I hope he gets into Federer's quarter. The ideal draw for Gulbis would see him drawn against a qualifier followed by someone like Jarrko Nieminen, in Janko Tipsarevic's eighth of the draw, in Federer's quarter, and in Ferrer's half! Is that asking for too much!!? Grigor Dimitrov, much like Gulbis, has all the tools necessary to inflict serious damage. The fact that Toni Nadal has endorsed the Bulgarian's talent shows how highly he is thought of. Berdych is dangerous in any draw but, to be honest, I couldn't see him winning it. Wawrinka has some injury issues lingering over him with a thigh problem and so you couldn't really back him either. I think Ferrer is a very realistic contender for the title, especially if he can land in the same side of the draw as Federer, thus avoiding Rafa & Nole.If that is to happen, Ferrer looks nice value @ 36.00 which could of course be laid off were he to make the final against one of the big two.
Finally, I am going to price up the odds of a complete coin toss tomorrow! Supposedly, the only thing fixed in the draw is that the number 1 seed will avoid the number 2. That means Federer and Djokovic will be kept apart, which in turn means Nadal has a 50% chance of being in Federer's half, and a 50% chance of being in Djokovic's half. I would price it up that Nadal is about 1/5 to be in Federer's half. I am one million percent convinced that these draws are somehow rigged in terms of the top seeds. The tournament organisers want a Rafa - Novak final and will do everything in their power to make that happen. In all fairness, nobody wants to see a damp squib final like Rome was, but it is uncanny how often Novak and Rafa are kept apart in Slam draws. Keep an eye on it tomorrow. I guarantee you Djokovic will be drawn with Ferrer, and Roger will be drawn with Rafa. The other thing I will be looking for is to see where Gulbis will be drawn. I have a feeling he will be drawn in Novak's quarter but I hope he gets Federer, who I think he would beat.
You could do a lot worse than take Gulbis @ 160.00 on the exchanges. If he gets a nice draw tomorrow, that could evaporate pretty quickly!
Until tomorrow! Over and out.
Monday 20 May 2013
Tuesday May 21st
There is nothing of real interest tomorrow from a betting point of view again. As I said, I will not be following too closely The Power Horse Cup nor the Open Cote D'Azur as players are not trying or are saving themselves for the weeks ahead in RG.
On that note, the French Open Qualifiers get underway in Roland Garros tomorrow but there are little or no betting odds up as of yet. It can be difficult to back in the early rounds of qualies anyway so we will wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get involved in any of the matches.
One thing I will recommend is a small outright bet on Andy Murray @ 100/1 on Betfair. He is only this price because there are doubts as to whether or not he will play but I am pretty convinced he will and he will be cut by more than half if he declares fit to play.
Until then!
Over and out :)
On that note, the French Open Qualifiers get underway in Roland Garros tomorrow but there are little or no betting odds up as of yet. It can be difficult to back in the early rounds of qualies anyway so we will wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get involved in any of the matches.
One thing I will recommend is a small outright bet on Andy Murray @ 100/1 on Betfair. He is only this price because there are doubts as to whether or not he will play but I am pretty convinced he will and he will be cut by more than half if he declares fit to play.
Until then!
Over and out :)
Sunday 19 May 2013
Rome review plus Nice & Power Horse Cup
There is very little to say in the blog today except that we got EXACTLY what we said we would from the Rafa-Roger match. I recommended Rafa 2-0 @ 1.76 and also Rafa -4.5 games @ 2.10 so both of those were easy winners. I went for a 6-2 6-3 scoreline and it was actually even worse for Federer who lost 6-1 6-3. This is not a rivalry anymore. If these guys met on a grass court, at altitude, indoors, in Switzerland, packed full of Swiss, Nadal would still destroy him. Federer has no answer for him. He will never take a set from Nadal again. The only way this match today was in any way relevant was that is moved Rafa up to 4th seed for the French Open, and David Ferrer has slid down to five.
There are two tournaments on this week, The Open Cote D'Azur in Nice, and The Power Horse Cup in Dusseldorf. I will be paying very little attention to either of them. As with any tournaments in the week preceeding a slam, players will be tanking, others will be testing things out, others will be trying to win - it is just too much of a lottery. I won't even bother to predict any match winners or outright winners. It just doesn't appeal to me and is far too risky to bet on.
I think the French Open qualies begin on Wednesday and that is certainly a 'tournament' where you can bet your bottom dollar that guys will be trying their hearts out. I will do a thorough preview of the French Open once the main draw comes out Friday but the blog could be relatively quiet until then.
Thanks for reading and hope you made some easy money today thanks to Rafa and some very generous bookies and punters out there!
Over and out! :)
There are two tournaments on this week, The Open Cote D'Azur in Nice, and The Power Horse Cup in Dusseldorf. I will be paying very little attention to either of them. As with any tournaments in the week preceeding a slam, players will be tanking, others will be testing things out, others will be trying to win - it is just too much of a lottery. I won't even bother to predict any match winners or outright winners. It just doesn't appeal to me and is far too risky to bet on.
I think the French Open qualies begin on Wednesday and that is certainly a 'tournament' where you can bet your bottom dollar that guys will be trying their hearts out. I will do a thorough preview of the French Open once the main draw comes out Friday but the blog could be relatively quiet until then.
Thanks for reading and hope you made some easy money today thanks to Rafa and some very generous bookies and punters out there!
Over and out! :)
Rome Final
After correctly predicting that both Rafa and Roger would win in straight sets in their semi finals, I now have two recommended bets for the final this afternoon.
The way I see this match, Rafa is going to find things a lot easier against Federer than he did against Gulbis or even Ferrer. I think Federer is still quite a long way from his best form - in fact, I think his decline is permanent and that we will never see his top form ever again. Federer coming up against Rafa on clay, like today, is the worst possible match up in tennis in my opinion. We know exactly what will happen before the match begins. Rafa will play very high-percentage tennis. He will hit all his serves to the Federer backhand, and he will hit over 90% of his groundstrokes to the Federer backhand as well. The Federer backhand will inevitably break down, Rafa will make very few errors, and this match will be over in easy straights.
My two recommended bets for today are Nadal to win 2-0 which is available @ 1.75 and then Nadal -4.5 games @ 2.10 on Betfair. I think this match could be about 6-2 6-3 or something like that and so I feel relatively confident for the above bets, particularly the set betting one which is a sure thing.
Enjoy the tennis and watch how Rafa predictably goes to the backhand as he has done for the past 8 years.... :)
The way I see this match, Rafa is going to find things a lot easier against Federer than he did against Gulbis or even Ferrer. I think Federer is still quite a long way from his best form - in fact, I think his decline is permanent and that we will never see his top form ever again. Federer coming up against Rafa on clay, like today, is the worst possible match up in tennis in my opinion. We know exactly what will happen before the match begins. Rafa will play very high-percentage tennis. He will hit all his serves to the Federer backhand, and he will hit over 90% of his groundstrokes to the Federer backhand as well. The Federer backhand will inevitably break down, Rafa will make very few errors, and this match will be over in easy straights.
My two recommended bets for today are Nadal to win 2-0 which is available @ 1.75 and then Nadal -4.5 games @ 2.10 on Betfair. I think this match could be about 6-2 6-3 or something like that and so I feel relatively confident for the above bets, particularly the set betting one which is a sure thing.
Enjoy the tennis and watch how Rafa predictably goes to the backhand as he has done for the past 8 years.... :)
Friday 17 May 2013
Rome Saturday
I didn't make any recommendations for QF day in Rome because none of the odds appealed to me. We got Federer, Rafa, and Paire correct, but I could never have seen Berdych beating Nole. Nole is just a horrible match-up for the Itchy Bird, which adds to my surprise at today's result. I look at it as a complete anomaly and in a way, it will lengthen Nole's odds for the French, which can only be a good thing in my book as I will be backing him outright for that.
Looking at tomorrow, again, only really briefly, Nadal will beat Berdych for the eleventh time in succession - again, pretty much nothing to see there. And Federer will maul Paire as he did in their Australian Open encounter back in January. So, there is pretty much nothing to see from a betting point of view tomorrow, but keep your eye on the match in-running for any opportunities if they do arrive. Rafa in straights, and Federer in straights giving us the first Fedal final in quite a while! Won't that be refreshing on Sunday.
Looking at tomorrow, again, only really briefly, Nadal will beat Berdych for the eleventh time in succession - again, pretty much nothing to see there. And Federer will maul Paire as he did in their Australian Open encounter back in January. So, there is pretty much nothing to see from a betting point of view tomorrow, but keep your eye on the match in-running for any opportunities if they do arrive. Rafa in straights, and Federer in straights giving us the first Fedal final in quite a while! Won't that be refreshing on Sunday.
Thursday 16 May 2013
Friday at Roma
Just a very quick blog tonight. Thursday proved to be a very profitable day for the blog at the Fora Italico in Rome. The profit was all thanks to Ernests Gulbis' display against Nadal, in a tight three-set loss, just as we predicted. The odds were 5.50 for this winning bet and the profit easily covered Gilles Simon's tame loss to Federer, who looked pretty good in their encounter.
Gulbis was a man possessed today - he showed people why I am so obsessed with him! His talents are phenomenal, and in my book, he plays the game the way it should be played. Indeed, Nadal didn't take too kindly to Gulbis' "attitude" and, if you have 4 minutes to spare, then this interview from Nadal post-match is well worth a watch! Gulbis took the game to Nadal like I said he would. He 100% believed in himself, and still believes he is as good a player as Nadal. Gulbis' interview can be seen here. There is probably only one other guy in the world who can do what Gulbis did to Rafa on slow clay today, and that is Novak Djokovic. Keep an eye on Gulbis' odds for the French. If I was a bookie, I wouldn't be taking too many risks on the Latvian!
Federer looked good, but was also made to look good by an average Gilles Simon display, and so I wouldn't read too much into the scoreline, as I thought Federer made plenty of errors, and, in my opinion, his performance today wasn't a patch on Gulbis' level against Rafa.
Anyway, looking at tomorrow's matches, I won't be having a pre-match bet on any of them. Federer, one of the best of all-time at neutralising a big serve will have far too much class for Double J and that will be a facile win. Nole will beat Berdych, Rafa will beat Ferrer - nothing to see in either of those matches. Last, and by ALL means least, Paire will beat Granollers, but is not worth a bet as his odds are too prohibitive for me @ 1.58 on the exchanges. Keep an eye in-running as ever, but I won't be making any pre-match recommendations this time around!
Another good day today, enjoy the profits, and even more importantly, enjoy the tennis! Over and out :)
Gulbis was a man possessed today - he showed people why I am so obsessed with him! His talents are phenomenal, and in my book, he plays the game the way it should be played. Indeed, Nadal didn't take too kindly to Gulbis' "attitude" and, if you have 4 minutes to spare, then this interview from Nadal post-match is well worth a watch! Gulbis took the game to Nadal like I said he would. He 100% believed in himself, and still believes he is as good a player as Nadal. Gulbis' interview can be seen here. There is probably only one other guy in the world who can do what Gulbis did to Rafa on slow clay today, and that is Novak Djokovic. Keep an eye on Gulbis' odds for the French. If I was a bookie, I wouldn't be taking too many risks on the Latvian!
Federer looked good, but was also made to look good by an average Gilles Simon display, and so I wouldn't read too much into the scoreline, as I thought Federer made plenty of errors, and, in my opinion, his performance today wasn't a patch on Gulbis' level against Rafa.
Anyway, looking at tomorrow's matches, I won't be having a pre-match bet on any of them. Federer, one of the best of all-time at neutralising a big serve will have far too much class for Double J and that will be a facile win. Nole will beat Berdych, Rafa will beat Ferrer - nothing to see in either of those matches. Last, and by ALL means least, Paire will beat Granollers, but is not worth a bet as his odds are too prohibitive for me @ 1.58 on the exchanges. Keep an eye in-running as ever, but I won't be making any pre-match recommendations this time around!
Another good day today, enjoy the profits, and even more importantly, enjoy the tennis! Over and out :)
Wednesday 15 May 2013
Rome Thursday
Wednesday at the Internazionali BNL dItalia was exactly the sort of day we needed and the sort of day that makes the blog seem worthwhile! Beginning with the only negative of the day, Andy Murray, who was a 25/1 value recommendation in the outright market pulled out of the tournament with a lower back injury at one set all with Marcel Granollers. Murray was struggling all match and his participation in Roland Garros is now in doubt also.
Thankfully though, that was only a small blotch on an otherwise perfect card today. Benoit Paire beat Julien Benneteau in another high-tension all-French affair, 7-6 in the third set. We recommeded Paire in yesterday's blog entry @ 1.91 and he got the job done in the end. I heard there were some words spoken at the handshake but I haven't seen anything yet - hopefully there will be something up on Youtube later! Next up, Jeremy Chardy beat Kei Nishikori as recommended @ a whopping 3.00. He whupped Kei in straight sets and showed how dangerous he can be on this surface. That was followed by Gilles Simon taking out The General, Mikhail Youzhny also as predicted. Simon can be so hard to beat and, even though he trailed 2-7 in their head to head, I was confident he would get the job done on this surface. The only regret of the day was that Wawrinka didn't take the court against Dolgopolov. I knew Stan was tired and The Dog would have beaten him for sure as it more than likely would have been a Swiss tank-job. Anyway, It was a great day and a 100% strike rate which is exactly what we are after, even if it is not always achievable!
Looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, there are several matches that really excite me, but there is only one match I will be having a bet on with a possible set-betting option on another.
Tomorrow, I expect wins for each of Berdych, Djokovic, Del Potro, Chardy, Ferrer, Gasquet, and Nadal. But I won't be having a pre-match bet on any of those. I might get involved in-running if the opportunity arises but the SP's don't really attract me for any of them. I was going to recommend Chardy @ 1.70 and am still close to backing him at those odds but Granollers can be difficult as we saw today, so I will avoid it for the time being.
The one match where I will recommend a bet might come as a surprise to some people. I am going to recommend Gilles Simon to beat Roger Federer. Simon has given Federer plenty of trouble in the past. Their head to head is tied @ 2-2, and all of those have been on hard courts. This surface should work more to the advantage of Simon, given the extra time he will have to chase down Federer's shots. Simon is a counter-puncher to the core, and, even though Federer was exquisite against Starace, he is still vulnerable. If we go back just one week, he was brutal against Nishikori in Madrid. I think Simon can frustrate Federer, much like he did with Murray in Madrid last week. Simon makes very few mistakes and misses very few balls. Another advantage for the Frenchman is that this is a night-time match, meaning conditions will be even slower, which plays even more into Simon's hands. Unless Federer is at the very top of his game, or pretty close to it, he will get beaten here. Simon is available @ 5.60 on the exchanges which is a massive price. Even if you back him and he goes a set up, you will have a chance to trade out if you feel the need at something close enough to even money or slightly odds against. I think it is great value and one which I will be gladly taking. Keep an eye on the match in play and trade as the opportunity arises.
Finally, in what is the most exciting match of the day from my point of view, I think Gulbis and Rafa are going to play out an epic. Unlike Fabio Fognini, who was pathetic today, Ernests Gulbis believes he belongs on court with Rafa Nadal and he will go toe to toe with the man from Manacor. Gulbis was unlucky not to beat Nadal in Indian Wells in March having been a set up, and he also ran Nadal to a very close three sets in this exact venue in 2010. Gulbis will bring manic aggression, his backhand is solid as a rock, which is what one needs against Rafa Nadal, and, if he serves big he even has a chance for the upset win @ 11.00. That is not a recommendation however, but you can back Rafa to win 2-1 @ 5.50 on Betfair and that is a recommended bet. I cannot wait for the match and I hope it delivers what it promises.
Enjoy the tennis and talk tomorrow. Over and out :)
Thankfully though, that was only a small blotch on an otherwise perfect card today. Benoit Paire beat Julien Benneteau in another high-tension all-French affair, 7-6 in the third set. We recommeded Paire in yesterday's blog entry @ 1.91 and he got the job done in the end. I heard there were some words spoken at the handshake but I haven't seen anything yet - hopefully there will be something up on Youtube later! Next up, Jeremy Chardy beat Kei Nishikori as recommended @ a whopping 3.00. He whupped Kei in straight sets and showed how dangerous he can be on this surface. That was followed by Gilles Simon taking out The General, Mikhail Youzhny also as predicted. Simon can be so hard to beat and, even though he trailed 2-7 in their head to head, I was confident he would get the job done on this surface. The only regret of the day was that Wawrinka didn't take the court against Dolgopolov. I knew Stan was tired and The Dog would have beaten him for sure as it more than likely would have been a Swiss tank-job. Anyway, It was a great day and a 100% strike rate which is exactly what we are after, even if it is not always achievable!
Looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, there are several matches that really excite me, but there is only one match I will be having a bet on with a possible set-betting option on another.
Tomorrow, I expect wins for each of Berdych, Djokovic, Del Potro, Chardy, Ferrer, Gasquet, and Nadal. But I won't be having a pre-match bet on any of those. I might get involved in-running if the opportunity arises but the SP's don't really attract me for any of them. I was going to recommend Chardy @ 1.70 and am still close to backing him at those odds but Granollers can be difficult as we saw today, so I will avoid it for the time being.
The one match where I will recommend a bet might come as a surprise to some people. I am going to recommend Gilles Simon to beat Roger Federer. Simon has given Federer plenty of trouble in the past. Their head to head is tied @ 2-2, and all of those have been on hard courts. This surface should work more to the advantage of Simon, given the extra time he will have to chase down Federer's shots. Simon is a counter-puncher to the core, and, even though Federer was exquisite against Starace, he is still vulnerable. If we go back just one week, he was brutal against Nishikori in Madrid. I think Simon can frustrate Federer, much like he did with Murray in Madrid last week. Simon makes very few mistakes and misses very few balls. Another advantage for the Frenchman is that this is a night-time match, meaning conditions will be even slower, which plays even more into Simon's hands. Unless Federer is at the very top of his game, or pretty close to it, he will get beaten here. Simon is available @ 5.60 on the exchanges which is a massive price. Even if you back him and he goes a set up, you will have a chance to trade out if you feel the need at something close enough to even money or slightly odds against. I think it is great value and one which I will be gladly taking. Keep an eye on the match in play and trade as the opportunity arises.
Finally, in what is the most exciting match of the day from my point of view, I think Gulbis and Rafa are going to play out an epic. Unlike Fabio Fognini, who was pathetic today, Ernests Gulbis believes he belongs on court with Rafa Nadal and he will go toe to toe with the man from Manacor. Gulbis was unlucky not to beat Nadal in Indian Wells in March having been a set up, and he also ran Nadal to a very close three sets in this exact venue in 2010. Gulbis will bring manic aggression, his backhand is solid as a rock, which is what one needs against Rafa Nadal, and, if he serves big he even has a chance for the upset win @ 11.00. That is not a recommendation however, but you can back Rafa to win 2-1 @ 5.50 on Betfair and that is a recommended bet. I cannot wait for the match and I hope it delivers what it promises.
Enjoy the tennis and talk tomorrow. Over and out :)
Tuesday 14 May 2013
Rome Wednesday
Tuesday at the Internazionali BNL dItalia 2013 was another mixed day. Chardy got things off to a good start by beating Lopez in three sets and Rosol looked set to continue the trend when he went a set up on Troicki. The inconsistent Czech went on to lose though, and was promptly followed out of the tournament by Grigor Dimitrov who lost to Gasquet, and Kuznetsov who got schooled by Del Po. I have no problem with the Kuznetsov bet - that was only ever a small, value stake in case Del Po was rusty! But the others are a little disappointing to say the least!
Looking ahead to tomorrow's tennis, here are my thoughts on selected matches as ever:
Paire v Benneteau: this will be an interesting match! Paire has looked good lately, putting a stern test up to Nadal in Madrid before knocking out Juan Monaco in the first round here. Benneteau, who I would never have seen as a clay court player beat Nico Almagro in straight sets today in what might go down as the upset of the round. Despite Benneteau's win over Almagro, I am going to side with Paire here. He has impressed me lately and Nadal actually said after their Madrid match last week that Paire's backhand is "one of the best on the circuit for sure". I think he is more suited to clay than Benneteau, and I am going to recommend him for the win @ 1.91 on Betfair.
Dolgopolov v Wawrinka: This time I am pretty sure Stan is going out. I didn't back him against Berlocq today and was almost left red-faced as the Argentine went a set up. But Stan didn't throw in the towel and his class shone through in the end. I did think Stan looked tired though and I am confident that Dolgopolov will be the man to give him a rest! Dolgopolov is a proper clay court player, his drop shot is exquisite and his serve and groundies are among the best when he is on form. I think he will give Stan too much to handle tomorrow, given Wawa's recent exertions and I am recommending The Dog @ 2.32 on the exchanges. (note he started off @ 2.62 a few hours ago so get the money down!)
Chardy v Nishikori: At first glance you would say Nishikori will win this one, but when you look at it again, it might not be as clear cut as one would think. Chardy is an excellent clay court player. I am not doubting that Nishikori has been impressive the last week or ten days. In his first few matches in Madrid he was phenomenal, but he was absolutely abysmal in his QF loss to Pablo Andujar. Chardy is a better tennis player than Pablo Andujar and has been known to rise to the big occasion in the past. I am recommending a bet for small stakes on Chardy @ 3.00 on Betfair.
Youzhny v Simon: I am a big fan of Mikhail Youzhny and his brand of tennis, but I think Simon is worth a bet here. The Frenchman has a bad record overall against the Russian. He trails 7-2, but, most importantly, he has won their previous 2 encounters, and has won their only ever match on clay. I would have thought Simon's record would be better against Youzhny given their stlyes of play. Youzhny is all-out aggression which suits Simon's defensive game. On clay, The General won't get rewarded as much for his aggression and willingness to go for the lines and my money is on Simon to frustrate him @ 2.26.
In other matches tomorrow, I can see wins for Berdych, Tsonga, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Ferrer, Gulbis, and Nadal. Just a point of note on the Nadal match: while I don't recommend a bet on Fognini to beat him, I am amazed that he is available @ 23.00 on Betfair. That is an insult! Fognini is the exact player Nadal would like to avoid playing in Rome! I can see Fognini being unbelievably motivated for this one and I think he might actually get a set. I am going to back and recommend Nadal to win 2-1 @ 8.00 and I would go for Fognini with the handicap if you can get +6.50 as I think this will be a close match.
Finallly, Murray has shortened slightly to 21.00 for the outright market and I am still recommending that you build up your stake on him at those odds. If he gets through Granollers and Nishikori /Chardy, he is in the QF. He would beat Del Po in my opinion and I can see him beating Federer or Tsonga too. Wouldn't it be a nice lay if he was 3.50 in the final!?
Enjoy the tennis. Over and out! :)
Looking ahead to tomorrow's tennis, here are my thoughts on selected matches as ever:
Paire v Benneteau: this will be an interesting match! Paire has looked good lately, putting a stern test up to Nadal in Madrid before knocking out Juan Monaco in the first round here. Benneteau, who I would never have seen as a clay court player beat Nico Almagro in straight sets today in what might go down as the upset of the round. Despite Benneteau's win over Almagro, I am going to side with Paire here. He has impressed me lately and Nadal actually said after their Madrid match last week that Paire's backhand is "one of the best on the circuit for sure". I think he is more suited to clay than Benneteau, and I am going to recommend him for the win @ 1.91 on Betfair.
Dolgopolov v Wawrinka: This time I am pretty sure Stan is going out. I didn't back him against Berlocq today and was almost left red-faced as the Argentine went a set up. But Stan didn't throw in the towel and his class shone through in the end. I did think Stan looked tired though and I am confident that Dolgopolov will be the man to give him a rest! Dolgopolov is a proper clay court player, his drop shot is exquisite and his serve and groundies are among the best when he is on form. I think he will give Stan too much to handle tomorrow, given Wawa's recent exertions and I am recommending The Dog @ 2.32 on the exchanges. (note he started off @ 2.62 a few hours ago so get the money down!)
Chardy v Nishikori: At first glance you would say Nishikori will win this one, but when you look at it again, it might not be as clear cut as one would think. Chardy is an excellent clay court player. I am not doubting that Nishikori has been impressive the last week or ten days. In his first few matches in Madrid he was phenomenal, but he was absolutely abysmal in his QF loss to Pablo Andujar. Chardy is a better tennis player than Pablo Andujar and has been known to rise to the big occasion in the past. I am recommending a bet for small stakes on Chardy @ 3.00 on Betfair.
Youzhny v Simon: I am a big fan of Mikhail Youzhny and his brand of tennis, but I think Simon is worth a bet here. The Frenchman has a bad record overall against the Russian. He trails 7-2, but, most importantly, he has won their previous 2 encounters, and has won their only ever match on clay. I would have thought Simon's record would be better against Youzhny given their stlyes of play. Youzhny is all-out aggression which suits Simon's defensive game. On clay, The General won't get rewarded as much for his aggression and willingness to go for the lines and my money is on Simon to frustrate him @ 2.26.
In other matches tomorrow, I can see wins for Berdych, Tsonga, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Ferrer, Gulbis, and Nadal. Just a point of note on the Nadal match: while I don't recommend a bet on Fognini to beat him, I am amazed that he is available @ 23.00 on Betfair. That is an insult! Fognini is the exact player Nadal would like to avoid playing in Rome! I can see Fognini being unbelievably motivated for this one and I think he might actually get a set. I am going to back and recommend Nadal to win 2-1 @ 8.00 and I would go for Fognini with the handicap if you can get +6.50 as I think this will be a close match.
Finallly, Murray has shortened slightly to 21.00 for the outright market and I am still recommending that you build up your stake on him at those odds. If he gets through Granollers and Nishikori /Chardy, he is in the QF. He would beat Del Po in my opinion and I can see him beating Federer or Tsonga too. Wouldn't it be a nice lay if he was 3.50 in the final!?
Enjoy the tennis. Over and out! :)
Monday 13 May 2013
Rome Tuesday
If I try to cover over the cracks of today's blog picks, I could argue that we came out of the day with a profit, if you backed all three selections for the same stake. Starace beat Stepanek as predicted @ 3.30 SP, before Seppi lost in easy straights to Fognini, and Klizan lost in three to Montanes after winning the first set. But that would be sugar-coating things and, at the end of the day, a 33% strike rate for the day is not exactly what we are after! Personally, Kohlschreiber made it quite a good day for me and helped to finish well in the green, by taking care of Milos Raonic @ 2.50. I wasn't really considering that match before it began as I don't like backing against Raonic, but Kohlschreiber looked very good in the early exchanges so I backed him. Given Raonic's less-than impressive history on clay, and the fact that he has just split with his coach, it made Kohly a very viable bet and he duly delivered.
Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, here are my thoughts on selected matches:
Chardy v Lopez: I like Chardy to win this one. He is far better on clay than Feliciano Lopez and seems to be coming into good form again. This will be an important tournament for him as he is a player who will have aspirations of a good run at the French, unlike Lopez. Lopez lost first round in Madrid last week to Gimeno-Traver and this surface will be much less suited to his game than Madrid would have been. Take Chardy @ 1.70
Dimitrov v Gasquet: Not a match I will be going big stakes on, but I am finding it hard to see Dimitrov as the underdog here. I think he has been in far far more impressive form than Gasquet, and even though he has never beaten the Frenchman, I would take him to win tomorrow @ 2.28. Expect a fantastic clash with some great shot-making but I am going for Baby-Fed to come through.
Rosol v Troicki: Rosol has beaten Troicki on the last three occasion they met, all on clay, and is available @ 1.96 on Betfair. I am going for Rosol here. He is only in as a lucky loser but has played two or three matches on these courts already this week and that should give him another advantage. Rosol for the win @ 1.96. Don't expect that price to last long.
Kuznetsov v Del Potro: this is a value choice for me. Del Potro hasn't played tennis since his loss to Nadal in the IW final. He has been nursing an injury at home in Argentina, and comes up against a player here who is capable of playing very aggressive all court tennis. Kuznetsov is a player in form and is worth a small bet @ 6.40. I expect him to test Del Po and possibly snatch an unlikely win.
In the other matches tomorrow, I expect wins for Murray, Haas, Verdasco, Simon, Cilic, Almagro, Berdych, and Federer. One last match of interest apart from the four above, is Wawrinka v Berlocq.
If Berlocq was longer than the 3.00 available, I would definitely recommend him, but it is a hard one to call. If Stan shows up, he wins, simple as that. But he has had a long two weeks and needs a rest now. Berlocq has played a few qualifying matches on these courts and will be confident of springing a surprise. I may yet back the Argentine @ 3.00 and he is certainly on worth considering for the upset win tomorrow. Having said that, if Stan wants to win he will and any Berlocq backers will be made look very silly indeed! Keep it in mind is the best advice I have for this one!
Until tomorrow, enjoy the tennis! :)
PS, have been looking at the draw again, and I am even more convinced Andy Murray is going to the final here. He is 25.00 on Betfair and I think that is MASSIVE value. He will be a huge lay in the final for green all round so go for it! :)
Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, here are my thoughts on selected matches:
Chardy v Lopez: I like Chardy to win this one. He is far better on clay than Feliciano Lopez and seems to be coming into good form again. This will be an important tournament for him as he is a player who will have aspirations of a good run at the French, unlike Lopez. Lopez lost first round in Madrid last week to Gimeno-Traver and this surface will be much less suited to his game than Madrid would have been. Take Chardy @ 1.70
Dimitrov v Gasquet: Not a match I will be going big stakes on, but I am finding it hard to see Dimitrov as the underdog here. I think he has been in far far more impressive form than Gasquet, and even though he has never beaten the Frenchman, I would take him to win tomorrow @ 2.28. Expect a fantastic clash with some great shot-making but I am going for Baby-Fed to come through.
Rosol v Troicki: Rosol has beaten Troicki on the last three occasion they met, all on clay, and is available @ 1.96 on Betfair. I am going for Rosol here. He is only in as a lucky loser but has played two or three matches on these courts already this week and that should give him another advantage. Rosol for the win @ 1.96. Don't expect that price to last long.
Kuznetsov v Del Potro: this is a value choice for me. Del Potro hasn't played tennis since his loss to Nadal in the IW final. He has been nursing an injury at home in Argentina, and comes up against a player here who is capable of playing very aggressive all court tennis. Kuznetsov is a player in form and is worth a small bet @ 6.40. I expect him to test Del Po and possibly snatch an unlikely win.
In the other matches tomorrow, I expect wins for Murray, Haas, Verdasco, Simon, Cilic, Almagro, Berdych, and Federer. One last match of interest apart from the four above, is Wawrinka v Berlocq.
If Berlocq was longer than the 3.00 available, I would definitely recommend him, but it is a hard one to call. If Stan shows up, he wins, simple as that. But he has had a long two weeks and needs a rest now. Berlocq has played a few qualifying matches on these courts and will be confident of springing a surprise. I may yet back the Argentine @ 3.00 and he is certainly on worth considering for the upset win tomorrow. Having said that, if Stan wants to win he will and any Berlocq backers will be made look very silly indeed! Keep it in mind is the best advice I have for this one!
Until tomorrow, enjoy the tennis! :)
PS, have been looking at the draw again, and I am even more convinced Andy Murray is going to the final here. He is 25.00 on Betfair and I think that is MASSIVE value. He will be a huge lay in the final for green all round so go for it! :)
Sunday 12 May 2013
Rome preview plus Monday's selections
Nadal got the job done in easy straights against Wawrinka today in the Madrid final. It looked like just one step too far for Stan after such a lot of tennis lately.
Anyway, I'm looking at Rome now and leaving Madrid firmly in the rear-view mirror! An important thing to note about Rome is that the surface is quite a lot slower than Madrid and there is no altitude so it should suit the more traditional clay courters out there and we need to factor that into our thinking this week. Anyway, here is my breakdown of the Rome draw by quarter:
Q1: Djokovic finds himself in another tough quarter here. A lot of the talent in Rome this year can be found in the top half of the draw and this quarter is a tricky assignment in itself. Nole is joined here by other big names such as Berdych, Cilic, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, and Anderson. In a way, this is the perfect quarter for Wawrinka who needs an early loss, if you know what I mean. Having played through the Portugal draw and then right through to the final of the Madrid draw, he needs a rest before RG! Djokovic will come out of this quarter and take his place in the SF. Along the way, he will need to beat Klizan, Dolgopolov, and Berdych, but Nole has arrived here very early, courtesy of his early loss in Madrid and I think he is ready to go all the way here. There is potential for Carlos Berlocq to take out Wawrinka and I will be keeping a close eye on the betting for that one, just because Stan needs a rest, but if not, then I think Dolgopolov will take care of him in the second round instead.
Q2: Surprise surprise, Nadal, the fifth seed, has landed in Ferrer's quarter again. There are suggestions that a lot of these draws are rigged by tournament organisers and, having been drawn in Ferrer's quarter for the second straight week, maybe some of the conspiracy theories are right! Keep an eye on that in the French. Anyway, this is an horrific quarter in terms of depth and not the best one for my man Ernests to get dropped into as a qualifier! I was hoping he would end up in the bottom half but, alas, not to be and here he is in Q2. Nadal will emerge from this quarter and along the way, I see him taking out Seppi, Gulbis, and Ferrer. Ferrer will have to get through Verdasco and Raonic to make the QF but I have no doubt that he will. Gulbis meets Jarrko Nieminen first up, and then Finn must be cursing his luck as it is their second meeting this season having played rd 1 in Monte-Carlo as well. His record as atrocious against Gulbis. Ernie then meets the winner of the all Serbian clash of Tipsy v Troicki which is not as clear cut as it seems. Either way, I will have Gulbis to come through either of those with ease to earn his meeting with Rafa. One of the standout matches of the first rd here is Seppi - Fognini which happened in Monte-Carlo too! Anyway, take Rafa to emerge, dropping a set to Gulbis along the way.
Q3: This is the quarter you want to be in! Not only is it the best half to be in, avoiding Rafa and Nole, but it avoids Ferrer too and Murray has really landed on his feet here. Andy is joined in this quarter by Del Potro who is on his way back from injury, Juan Monaco, Nicolas Almagro, and Kei Nishikori. I think Murray has been progressing nicely, and I think he is going to come through this quarter. Murray's route to the SF would likely be Granollers, followed by Nishikori, followed by Almagro. He wins those three matches, he makes the semis. Simple as that. I would be very confident as a Murray fan that he can have a great tournament here. The draw has been very kind to him and indeed he has played some of his best ever clay court tennis at this venue. I recall his epic SF match v Djokovic when Murray served for the match in the third set playing some scintillating tennis along the way. Del Potro will struggle and I think will lose early doors. Monaco can always be very dangerous on this surface, ditto Almagro, but I think Murray can cope with any of them.
Q4: Roger Federer finds himself at the bottom of the draw here in what is actually a pretty tough quarter. He was pretty bad last week and I am not convinced that he will turn it around here. He will play either Potito Starace or Radek Stepanek first up, followed by Tommy Haas, followed by Dimitrov, Tsonga, or Gasquet. That particular section of this quarter is so insanely tough! In that little one eighth section, we can find Tsonga, Janowicz, Giraldo, Baghdatis, Dimitrov, Querrey, and Gasquet! Tough to call. If I am being bold, I will go for Tsonga or Dimitrov to meet Federer in this QF. WOuldn't it be awesome to have a Federer v Dimitrov QF!? Going to take either Jo or Dimitrov to come through here to meet Murray in the SF!
So, having looked at the draw, I think it is obvious that Q3 is the place to be, and that the bottom half is kinder than the top! My SF match ups look like Nole v Rafa for sure, and then Murray v Tsonga/Dimitrov at the bottom. Maybe Federer will come through but he would have to improve an awful lot on last week. So, I think in those semi match ups, that Djokovic will beat Rafa again, and that Murray will find a way into the final. Nole is very motivated for this week, and the last thing he wants to do is to give any little psychological advantage to Rafa in the lead up to the French. I see a Nole v Murray final, with Nole probably winning, but, when those two collide, anything is possible. For me, given my prediction of the draw panning out that way, I see Andy Murray as the standout value outright bet @ 20.00 on the exchanges. If he was to make a final against Nole, he would likely be 3.50 or something and that would be a very nice trade. Djokovic is 3.25 on the exchanges but I fail to see any value in it given his route to the final and I would advise staying away from him and Nadal in the outright betting. I will be backing Murray and laying it off when he gets to the final. If he plays like he has done here in the past, his level will be more than good enought to make the final. Murray @ 20s is the bet. (For the more adventurous out there, you could do worse than have a few pound on Dimitrov @ 100 on Betfair but it's not for me.)
Finally, looking at the individual matches for Monday, there are three or four matches that interest me betting-wise. Firstly, we have a re-match of the Klizan v Montanes match from Monte-Carlo, which Klizan won quite convincingly. He is available tomorrow @ 1.95 to beat Montanes again and that is a recommended bet. The other matches that interest me are Seppi v Fognini, Giraldo v Janowicz, and Stepanek v Starace. In the Seppi - Fognini match, we have two close friends meeting in the first round of their home tournament, which will be a massive one for the fans. I actually think Seppi is going to upset the odds here and reverse the result of the Monte-Carlo match. Fognini is more of a shot-maker, and, while he is very very adept on clay, I think Seppi is the more solid of the two and has improved on this surface over the past few weeks since their last meeting. The head to head favours Seppi 4-2 and he is available @ 2.30 which is a very nice price in my book. Seppi is certainly a recommended bet and I fancy the level head to win out over the flair!
Santiago Giraldo comes up against the giant JJ in a tough one to call. Giraldo, without doubt, is more of a clay courter, but JJ is tough to call. He has improved a lot and is difficult to break. Giraldo is 2.2 with JJ @ 1.80. I am not going to make a recommendation on this match, given how tight I see it. IF someone forced me to have a bet on it, I would go for Giraldo, but that's not a recommended bet and it will be a very close match. Elsewhere tomorrow, expect wins for Monaco, Ramos, Kuznetsov, Cilic, Gulbis, Raonic (another tight one), and Nishikori. One other match to keep your eye on tomorrow is Potito Starace v Radek Stepanek. Starace is Italian, and is a clay court specialist, much unlike Stepanek. Starace will be very much up for this one having received a wild card, and he has been playing lots of smaller challenger tournaments to get himself ready for this one. He won one in Naples at the end of April beating some very nice players along the way. I have a feeling he could upset the odds and get through here and I am actually going to make him a recommendation @ 2.90.
Enjoy tomorrow's tennis! Until then, over and out :)
Anyway, I'm looking at Rome now and leaving Madrid firmly in the rear-view mirror! An important thing to note about Rome is that the surface is quite a lot slower than Madrid and there is no altitude so it should suit the more traditional clay courters out there and we need to factor that into our thinking this week. Anyway, here is my breakdown of the Rome draw by quarter:
Q1: Djokovic finds himself in another tough quarter here. A lot of the talent in Rome this year can be found in the top half of the draw and this quarter is a tricky assignment in itself. Nole is joined here by other big names such as Berdych, Cilic, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, and Anderson. In a way, this is the perfect quarter for Wawrinka who needs an early loss, if you know what I mean. Having played through the Portugal draw and then right through to the final of the Madrid draw, he needs a rest before RG! Djokovic will come out of this quarter and take his place in the SF. Along the way, he will need to beat Klizan, Dolgopolov, and Berdych, but Nole has arrived here very early, courtesy of his early loss in Madrid and I think he is ready to go all the way here. There is potential for Carlos Berlocq to take out Wawrinka and I will be keeping a close eye on the betting for that one, just because Stan needs a rest, but if not, then I think Dolgopolov will take care of him in the second round instead.
Q2: Surprise surprise, Nadal, the fifth seed, has landed in Ferrer's quarter again. There are suggestions that a lot of these draws are rigged by tournament organisers and, having been drawn in Ferrer's quarter for the second straight week, maybe some of the conspiracy theories are right! Keep an eye on that in the French. Anyway, this is an horrific quarter in terms of depth and not the best one for my man Ernests to get dropped into as a qualifier! I was hoping he would end up in the bottom half but, alas, not to be and here he is in Q2. Nadal will emerge from this quarter and along the way, I see him taking out Seppi, Gulbis, and Ferrer. Ferrer will have to get through Verdasco and Raonic to make the QF but I have no doubt that he will. Gulbis meets Jarrko Nieminen first up, and then Finn must be cursing his luck as it is their second meeting this season having played rd 1 in Monte-Carlo as well. His record as atrocious against Gulbis. Ernie then meets the winner of the all Serbian clash of Tipsy v Troicki which is not as clear cut as it seems. Either way, I will have Gulbis to come through either of those with ease to earn his meeting with Rafa. One of the standout matches of the first rd here is Seppi - Fognini which happened in Monte-Carlo too! Anyway, take Rafa to emerge, dropping a set to Gulbis along the way.
Q3: This is the quarter you want to be in! Not only is it the best half to be in, avoiding Rafa and Nole, but it avoids Ferrer too and Murray has really landed on his feet here. Andy is joined in this quarter by Del Potro who is on his way back from injury, Juan Monaco, Nicolas Almagro, and Kei Nishikori. I think Murray has been progressing nicely, and I think he is going to come through this quarter. Murray's route to the SF would likely be Granollers, followed by Nishikori, followed by Almagro. He wins those three matches, he makes the semis. Simple as that. I would be very confident as a Murray fan that he can have a great tournament here. The draw has been very kind to him and indeed he has played some of his best ever clay court tennis at this venue. I recall his epic SF match v Djokovic when Murray served for the match in the third set playing some scintillating tennis along the way. Del Potro will struggle and I think will lose early doors. Monaco can always be very dangerous on this surface, ditto Almagro, but I think Murray can cope with any of them.
Q4: Roger Federer finds himself at the bottom of the draw here in what is actually a pretty tough quarter. He was pretty bad last week and I am not convinced that he will turn it around here. He will play either Potito Starace or Radek Stepanek first up, followed by Tommy Haas, followed by Dimitrov, Tsonga, or Gasquet. That particular section of this quarter is so insanely tough! In that little one eighth section, we can find Tsonga, Janowicz, Giraldo, Baghdatis, Dimitrov, Querrey, and Gasquet! Tough to call. If I am being bold, I will go for Tsonga or Dimitrov to meet Federer in this QF. WOuldn't it be awesome to have a Federer v Dimitrov QF!? Going to take either Jo or Dimitrov to come through here to meet Murray in the SF!
So, having looked at the draw, I think it is obvious that Q3 is the place to be, and that the bottom half is kinder than the top! My SF match ups look like Nole v Rafa for sure, and then Murray v Tsonga/Dimitrov at the bottom. Maybe Federer will come through but he would have to improve an awful lot on last week. So, I think in those semi match ups, that Djokovic will beat Rafa again, and that Murray will find a way into the final. Nole is very motivated for this week, and the last thing he wants to do is to give any little psychological advantage to Rafa in the lead up to the French. I see a Nole v Murray final, with Nole probably winning, but, when those two collide, anything is possible. For me, given my prediction of the draw panning out that way, I see Andy Murray as the standout value outright bet @ 20.00 on the exchanges. If he was to make a final against Nole, he would likely be 3.50 or something and that would be a very nice trade. Djokovic is 3.25 on the exchanges but I fail to see any value in it given his route to the final and I would advise staying away from him and Nadal in the outright betting. I will be backing Murray and laying it off when he gets to the final. If he plays like he has done here in the past, his level will be more than good enought to make the final. Murray @ 20s is the bet. (For the more adventurous out there, you could do worse than have a few pound on Dimitrov @ 100 on Betfair but it's not for me.)
Finally, looking at the individual matches for Monday, there are three or four matches that interest me betting-wise. Firstly, we have a re-match of the Klizan v Montanes match from Monte-Carlo, which Klizan won quite convincingly. He is available tomorrow @ 1.95 to beat Montanes again and that is a recommended bet. The other matches that interest me are Seppi v Fognini, Giraldo v Janowicz, and Stepanek v Starace. In the Seppi - Fognini match, we have two close friends meeting in the first round of their home tournament, which will be a massive one for the fans. I actually think Seppi is going to upset the odds here and reverse the result of the Monte-Carlo match. Fognini is more of a shot-maker, and, while he is very very adept on clay, I think Seppi is the more solid of the two and has improved on this surface over the past few weeks since their last meeting. The head to head favours Seppi 4-2 and he is available @ 2.30 which is a very nice price in my book. Seppi is certainly a recommended bet and I fancy the level head to win out over the flair!
Santiago Giraldo comes up against the giant JJ in a tough one to call. Giraldo, without doubt, is more of a clay courter, but JJ is tough to call. He has improved a lot and is difficult to break. Giraldo is 2.2 with JJ @ 1.80. I am not going to make a recommendation on this match, given how tight I see it. IF someone forced me to have a bet on it, I would go for Giraldo, but that's not a recommended bet and it will be a very close match. Elsewhere tomorrow, expect wins for Monaco, Ramos, Kuznetsov, Cilic, Gulbis, Raonic (another tight one), and Nishikori. One other match to keep your eye on tomorrow is Potito Starace v Radek Stepanek. Starace is Italian, and is a clay court specialist, much unlike Stepanek. Starace will be very much up for this one having received a wild card, and he has been playing lots of smaller challenger tournaments to get himself ready for this one. He won one in Naples at the end of April beating some very nice players along the way. I have a feeling he could upset the odds and get through here and I am actually going to make him a recommendation @ 2.90.
Enjoy tomorrow's tennis! Until then, over and out :)
Saturday 11 May 2013
Madrid final
really quick post tonight as im posting from my phone in a hotel lobby! nadal routed andujar as we said he would while stan the man put paid to our 50/1 outright shot on berdych! berdych had this match at his mercy, up 2-4 and 15-40 on the wawrinka serve with virtual match points in the third set before somehow losing 16 of the next 20 points en route to a massively disappointing loss for him.
All credit and hats off to stan. he is one of the tour's real good guys. i think he is in for a long day tomorrow though! he has played nadal 8 times and has lost 8 times without ever even winning a set! that record is about as bad as it gets! i would LOVE to see stan beat Rafa tomorrow but i cant see it happening. Even with magnus norman at the helm, rafa will be confident of beating my favourite swiss, but i think stan is capable of getting on the scoreboard and taking a set this time around. he is back in the top ten as of today, is playing the best tennis of his life, and i will take him to get a set in a close but ultimately losing effort against nadal. stan will need to serve well and be ultra aggressive tomorrow. no point trying to engage rafa in long rallies! expect nadal to hit moonball after moonball to the wawrinka single hander as he does with federer on every occadion they meet!
Take rafa 2-1 @ 5.00 on the exchanges. enjoy the tennis! :)
ps i will do a full preview of Rome in tomorrow's blog. over and out!
All credit and hats off to stan. he is one of the tour's real good guys. i think he is in for a long day tomorrow though! he has played nadal 8 times and has lost 8 times without ever even winning a set! that record is about as bad as it gets! i would LOVE to see stan beat Rafa tomorrow but i cant see it happening. Even with magnus norman at the helm, rafa will be confident of beating my favourite swiss, but i think stan is capable of getting on the scoreboard and taking a set this time around. he is back in the top ten as of today, is playing the best tennis of his life, and i will take him to get a set in a close but ultimately losing effort against nadal. stan will need to serve well and be ultra aggressive tomorrow. no point trying to engage rafa in long rallies! expect nadal to hit moonball after moonball to the wawrinka single hander as he does with federer on every occadion they meet!
Take rafa 2-1 @ 5.00 on the exchanges. enjoy the tennis! :)
ps i will do a full preview of Rome in tomorrow's blog. over and out!
Friday 10 May 2013
Madrid SF
Friday at the Madrid Open was a mixed bag, all in all. First up, I was working during the Nadal match unfortunately and so missed a golden opportunity to get involved when Ferrer was close to the magical destination at which we knew he could never arrive! Rafa was always going to come through here and that would have been some very nice profit. Sometime life gets in the way of tennis! :P
Even more unfortunate from my point of view, I got home just in time to see Nishikori v Andujar. This was a match I never intended on getting involved in as I was 100% sure that Kei would win. He knocked out Melzer in straights, Troicki in straights, and Federer in straights, and then decides not to show up at all and gets sent packing by Pablo Andujar, in straights. I mean, Andujar has to beat the weakest player on tour mentally. He handed the inititiave back to Kei when he attempted to serve out the match at 5-4 in the second and then Kei handed a break straight back to him. It was pathetic stuff and is a worrying trait for Nishikori's long term prospects. He literally did nothing in the match today. How can he beat the world number 2 one day and lose to the world number 113 the next?
Thankfully, Tomas Berdych came to our aid with his straight set dismissal of Andy Murray. It was another exciting display from Berdych and he is giving us a real run for our money with the 50/1 outright recommendation at the beginning of the week. Murray looked somewhat frustrated as he can do from time to time, and he never looked like penetrating Berdych the way Berdych did to him. Berdych's serve is also a serious weapon here and he managed himself very well today.
The last match was the difference between a good day and a bad day for me. I predicted here yesterday that Tsonga would lose the first set and win the match. He duly lost the first set, won the second in the most exciting tie-break I have seen, and was in a great position at the beginning of the third. He was 1.50 in running at one stage and looked a great prospect. But he failed to convert from 0-30 on the Wawrinka delivery early in the third and promptly threw in a gift of a service break for Stan which the Swiss maintained until the end. It was a disappointing end to the day, but kudos to Stan. A good win for him.
Tomorrow's first semi final will take about half an hour. That's all the attention I'm giving it on this blog. It will be a lopsided joke of a match. A 2 and 1 beatdown or something similar.
In the only real match tomorrow, Berdych takes on Wawrinka for the right to face Rafa in the final. Their head to head record is tied at 5-5 and I expect tomorrow to be a close encounter. Berdych has the slight advantage in that he played first today while Stan didn't finish until nearly 2.00 am which is two late-night three-setters in a row for him. I am going to side with Berdych, just because I think he is the fresher of the two. Game-wise, they are both playing very aggressive tennis, both serving well, and both very strong from the back of the court. There is little to chose between them. Maybe Stan has a slight edge at the net but this is a department Berdych has improved a lot on over the last year or two. There are no odds up yet but I would imagine it will be very close in the betting with Berdych maybe being the marginal favourite. I hope for the sake of our outright bet that Berdych does progress, and, given his current form, his win today, and his history at this venue, I will take him to knock out the best Swiss player this week in three sets.
Enjoy the semi finals! :)
Even more unfortunate from my point of view, I got home just in time to see Nishikori v Andujar. This was a match I never intended on getting involved in as I was 100% sure that Kei would win. He knocked out Melzer in straights, Troicki in straights, and Federer in straights, and then decides not to show up at all and gets sent packing by Pablo Andujar, in straights. I mean, Andujar has to beat the weakest player on tour mentally. He handed the inititiave back to Kei when he attempted to serve out the match at 5-4 in the second and then Kei handed a break straight back to him. It was pathetic stuff and is a worrying trait for Nishikori's long term prospects. He literally did nothing in the match today. How can he beat the world number 2 one day and lose to the world number 113 the next?
Thankfully, Tomas Berdych came to our aid with his straight set dismissal of Andy Murray. It was another exciting display from Berdych and he is giving us a real run for our money with the 50/1 outright recommendation at the beginning of the week. Murray looked somewhat frustrated as he can do from time to time, and he never looked like penetrating Berdych the way Berdych did to him. Berdych's serve is also a serious weapon here and he managed himself very well today.
The last match was the difference between a good day and a bad day for me. I predicted here yesterday that Tsonga would lose the first set and win the match. He duly lost the first set, won the second in the most exciting tie-break I have seen, and was in a great position at the beginning of the third. He was 1.50 in running at one stage and looked a great prospect. But he failed to convert from 0-30 on the Wawrinka delivery early in the third and promptly threw in a gift of a service break for Stan which the Swiss maintained until the end. It was a disappointing end to the day, but kudos to Stan. A good win for him.
Tomorrow's first semi final will take about half an hour. That's all the attention I'm giving it on this blog. It will be a lopsided joke of a match. A 2 and 1 beatdown or something similar.
In the only real match tomorrow, Berdych takes on Wawrinka for the right to face Rafa in the final. Their head to head record is tied at 5-5 and I expect tomorrow to be a close encounter. Berdych has the slight advantage in that he played first today while Stan didn't finish until nearly 2.00 am which is two late-night three-setters in a row for him. I am going to side with Berdych, just because I think he is the fresher of the two. Game-wise, they are both playing very aggressive tennis, both serving well, and both very strong from the back of the court. There is little to chose between them. Maybe Stan has a slight edge at the net but this is a department Berdych has improved a lot on over the last year or two. There are no odds up yet but I would imagine it will be very close in the betting with Berdych maybe being the marginal favourite. I hope for the sake of our outright bet that Berdych does progress, and, given his current form, his win today, and his history at this venue, I will take him to knock out the best Swiss player this week in three sets.
Enjoy the semi finals! :)
Thursday 9 May 2013
Madrid Friday
Thursday at the Mutua Madrid Masters was a great day of tennis, with one or two upsets thrown in along the way. I was delighted to see Kei Nishikori beat Federer in what we predicted would be a close match. I had been very impressed with Nishikori's striking of that ball all week and am just a bit raging I didn't have a stake on him to win the match! We won our recommendation on Stan the Man when he overcame Grigor Dimitrov on Sanchez-Vicario. Wawrinka went a set down and was available @ about 3.00 at one stage. We also recommended backing Verdasco and laying him off in what would be a three set win for Tsonga - and that is exactly what happened! And to add to what was already a good day, I got involved in the Murray-Simon match in favour of the Scot when Andy was a set and a break down. I backed him @ 3.20 and always thought he would win given his 10-1 complete ownership of Gilles in their head to head record. Murray did his best to lose it, throwing away 5 match points before claiming it on his sixth. All in all, it was a relatively poor performance from Murray, who could only capitalise on 3 of 18 break point chances. In other action today, Gimeno-Traver retired at 5-5 in the first set with Andujar so all bets were refunded on that one. Finally, Tommy Haas absolutely threw away his match against David Ferrer. I was on Haas and tried to lay it off several times while he was up a break in the third but I couldn't lay due to continuous price movements and then Ferrer ended up breaking him! Not a good match for me! Tommy was bad when the pressure came. He was 4-2 serving and 40-15 and got broken from that point to lose the set and match. Brutal. And it will set him back quite a bit because this was a mental loss more than anything else. He has never beaten Ferrer and on the evidence of today, he never will.
Now, looking forward to tomorrow's quarter finals. I think Rafa will ruffle Ferrer's feathers good and proper. There is nothing to see in that one. Expect a straight set beatdown for Ferrer. Likewise for Andujar in the other afternoon quarter final. Nishikori does literally everything better than Andujar and there is nothing to see in that one either. Kei in easy straights.
The evening matches are where is is all at tomorrow. I am going for Berdych to take out Murray. There are no odds up yet but I would expect the betting to be very close. Perhaps Murray will be a slight favourite, but I don't think he should be. They have played twice on clay with Berdych winning on both occasions. Murray has been playing tonight until after 1:00 am in a three hour match while Berdych was finished in the early afternoon after a routine straight set win over Anderson. Their head to head is tied at 4-4 but I think Berdych likes this tournament a lot. He is very well suited to the altitude here and the faster clay suits his game. I wasn't particularly impressed with Murray today and so, take Berdych to progress to the semi finals at the Scot's expense.
In the last match of the day, Wawrinka takes on Tsonga on a surface that, for me, Stan is much more suited to. The head to head however stands at 3-1 to Jo, and 2-1 on clay including their last two which is somewhat of a surprise. I think the main thing in this match up is the actual mental belief that Tsonga has that he can beat Stan every time. Stan can be mentally frail sometimes in terms of playing guys against whom he has an inferior record. I thought this betting would be pretty much even money shots all round, but Jo was 2.20 and is actually even longer now. If the betting on Jo goes to 2.30 or so I would recommend taking him. He has Roger Rasheed in his corner and it seems to be a good match up for both guys. It was a good win over Verdasco today and he knows he can beat Stan who had quite a late match against Dimitrov today. Both guys are hitting the ball well but I have a feeling Tsonga might take this one and I am going to back him. Stan has been playing a lot of tennis lately, including his title run in Portugal last week and it might just catch up with him. I also have a sneaky feeling Stan might win the first set and lose the match so I would recommend a small bet on Tsonga @ about 4.50 or so if he goes a set down here. Just a gut feeling. Take Tsonga in three.
Enjoy the tennis. What better way to spend a Friday night! :)
Now, looking forward to tomorrow's quarter finals. I think Rafa will ruffle Ferrer's feathers good and proper. There is nothing to see in that one. Expect a straight set beatdown for Ferrer. Likewise for Andujar in the other afternoon quarter final. Nishikori does literally everything better than Andujar and there is nothing to see in that one either. Kei in easy straights.
The evening matches are where is is all at tomorrow. I am going for Berdych to take out Murray. There are no odds up yet but I would expect the betting to be very close. Perhaps Murray will be a slight favourite, but I don't think he should be. They have played twice on clay with Berdych winning on both occasions. Murray has been playing tonight until after 1:00 am in a three hour match while Berdych was finished in the early afternoon after a routine straight set win over Anderson. Their head to head is tied at 4-4 but I think Berdych likes this tournament a lot. He is very well suited to the altitude here and the faster clay suits his game. I wasn't particularly impressed with Murray today and so, take Berdych to progress to the semi finals at the Scot's expense.
In the last match of the day, Wawrinka takes on Tsonga on a surface that, for me, Stan is much more suited to. The head to head however stands at 3-1 to Jo, and 2-1 on clay including their last two which is somewhat of a surprise. I think the main thing in this match up is the actual mental belief that Tsonga has that he can beat Stan every time. Stan can be mentally frail sometimes in terms of playing guys against whom he has an inferior record. I thought this betting would be pretty much even money shots all round, but Jo was 2.20 and is actually even longer now. If the betting on Jo goes to 2.30 or so I would recommend taking him. He has Roger Rasheed in his corner and it seems to be a good match up for both guys. It was a good win over Verdasco today and he knows he can beat Stan who had quite a late match against Dimitrov today. Both guys are hitting the ball well but I have a feeling Tsonga might take this one and I am going to back him. Stan has been playing a lot of tennis lately, including his title run in Portugal last week and it might just catch up with him. I also have a sneaky feeling Stan might win the first set and lose the match so I would recommend a small bet on Tsonga @ about 4.50 or so if he goes a set down here. Just a gut feeling. Take Tsonga in three.
Enjoy the tennis. What better way to spend a Friday night! :)
Wednesday 8 May 2013
Madrid Thursday
Madrid was a good day today. I hadn't looked too much into the possibility of Mikhail Youzhny beating Nicolas Almagro until I was watching the match and realised that Youzhny had a 4-0 head to head advantage over Almagro before today's match. So, I got on Youzhny when he was down a break in the first set @ 10/1 which was a fantastic price. Unfortunately, I layed it off when The General went up a break at the beginning of the third but it saved me some nerve-wracking moments (and some grey hair) later on in the match and still got me pleny of profit for the day which is exactly what I needed after the last few days we've had. I think it came down to the mental side of things more than the actual tennis and Almagro can be found wanting in that department quite often. I actually LOVE the General's salute to the four corners of the stadium at the end of each victory. He does that in memory of his late father and there is no finer sight in tennis in my book! The other matches today all went the way I thought, with the exception of Juan Monaco's loss to Kevin Anderson from a very good position in the third set.
Looking forward to tomorrow's action in La Caja Magica, there are some matches which are hard to call. Indeed, I would love to back some of the matches which I think represent a bit of value, but something is telling me not to do it! Tommy Haas v David Ferrer is the match I am most referring to. I think Haas is playing close to his best ever tennis. He won last week in Munich, and these courts here would be more beneficial to his game than they would to Ferrer's. They are at altitude and are slightly faster than traditional clay which plays more to the strengths of Haas. Haas is available @ 2.70 on the exchanges but his head to head is a poor one against Ferrer: 0-3 in favour of the Spaniard. Overall, I am not going to recommend Haas, but it is one I will be keeping a close eye on and if I think he is looking like a win, then I will get involved in play, as indeed you should too!
Daniel Gimeno-Traver v Pablo Andujar is another match I am interested in tomorrow. Gimeno-Traver beat Richard Gasquet in the last round and has been playing some great stuff. I think he is a stronger player mentally than Andujar, and I am going to recommend him @ 2.34, even though he has a poor record against Andujar. Take DGT to come through here. I think Andujar cannot be depended upon under pressure, and if DGT can hit through Dicky Gasquet, he can win this one too. His season has been good so far and I will back him to go one further tomorrow.
Murray will beat Simon for sure, Rafa will beat Youzhny, and Berdych will beat Anderson. That leaves three more matches to look at. Firstly, I think Federer will beat Kei, but I think it will be close. Kei has been hitting the ball better than ever on clay this week, he will have a good match with Roger, but regardless of Nishikori's form, I will take the Great Man to come through maybe 7-6, 6-4 or something like that.
Despite my constant mocking and rollicking of Fernando Verdasco, I actually think he represents good value tomorrow. I think ultimately Big Jo will probably win, but I think it will be very close. All their previous matches have been very close affairs, and I think Verdasco plays his best tennis here - no doubt about that. He is a Madrid boy and has lots of fans in these parts. He is far more suited to clay than Jo is and I think 3.30 on Betfair is too big for Verdasco. I would actually recommend to take him on that those prices and then lay off some of the risk later on in the match. I could see this one going to a third set, and maybe even a third set breaker. Take Verdasco @ 3.30 and lay it off later on.
Finally, the match of the day tomorrow evening, is the contest between two of the hottest properties in tennis at the moment. The new buck on the block, Grigor Dimitrov, takes on the wily old vet Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka is coming off a title in Portugal last week while Dimi is coming off the greatest win of his life over Nole on Tuesday night. This will be a cracker, I am convinced of it. To be honest, I like Wawrinka for the win in this one. I don't think Dimitrov's level is going to drop or anything like that, but Stan can play tennis at the very very highest level. He hasn't shown any hangover since his demolition job of Ferrer in the Portugal final. He annihilated Santiago Giraldo today in a very professional display and I think we are in for a real treat tomorrow evening. Expect lots of top quality rallies, expect lots of backhand to backhand exchanges, expect plenty of forehand winners, and expect some deft play at the net to go with the inevitable big serving that both players are capable of. Stan is my favourite to win this match, he is available at about 1.74 now and will be about 1.80 closer to the match. Take Wawrinka for the win, more than likely in three sets.
Enjoy the bumper day of tennis tomorrow. Over & out. :)
PS don't watch the women's - it's pathetic!! Robson and Ivanovic tonight was the greatest choke-fest I have EVER seen!! MensTennisForLife! :)
Tuesday 7 May 2013
Madrid Tuesday & Wednesday
Today was a nightmare of a day. First off, sincere apologies to anyone who follows the advice of the blog. I am not so worried about Klizan losing to Giraldo, but, more importantly and significantly, I am disgusted about the Isner recommendation. He never got into his match against Andujar. On very very infrequent occasions, Pablo Andujar plays fantastic tennis. He did it in Casablanca for a year or two, he did it against Rafa at the French a few years back, and, unfortuantely, he did it today against Isner. I mean, this guy couldn't win an arguement all year up to today. He has been pathetic and deplorable. His record before today was 5-13. Isner was on fire in what was a quality match against GGL yesterday. He has a new coach, new clay court season, high altitude to help his serve, pretty much indoor clay, all the signs were good for Isner, and he turned in an absolutely pathetic and lethargic display. I don't like his game at all, I never have, but that is not the reason I backed him. I backed him because he can be hard to beat, can be so aggressive and looked like he would bully Andujar, who is a mental weakling at the best of times. To compound matters, I recommended a max bet on Isner and did the same myself. That means it will be a week of very small stakes for the rest of this tournament, trying to dig out of this Isner-made hole!
But I guess it was just one of those days in Madrid. I mean, even Fernando Verdasco won a match. I would have been 100% certain that Raonic would beat Verdasco, the mental giant that he is. Richard Gasquet lost to Daniel Gimeno Traver - I mean come on! It doesn't make sense! I am going to put it behind me and enjoy the rest of the tennis that lies in store for us this week. In more positive news, Berdych is now 20/1 (we recommeded him @ 50s), and Federer is now 6/1 (we recommeded him @ 20s). It is highly likely now that either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych will contest the final against the winner of Fed/Rafa and so things are looking up on that front at the very least!
Looking at tomorrow's tennis, I am not even going to make a recommendation. I mean, looking at my record here this week, you guys should just go for the exact opposite of what I say! If you did that this week in Madrid, you would have a 4 out of 4, 100% win record! Things have been that bad! Tomorrow, I see Nadal, Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, Haas, Monaco, Almagro, Wawrinka, & Nishikori all winning. If you want to have a bet out of all of those, Haas and Monaco are best priced @ 1/2 in their respective matches to beat Robredo and Anderson. Maybe do an accumulator - they will all definitely win! I guarantee it! ;)
Anyway, all joking aside, no recommendations today. Just marvel at the arrival of the sport's newest superstar, Grigor Dimitrov. We said here a month or two ago that he is a number one in waiting, and today proved that for sure. In he words of auld Andy Gray, take a bow son.
Peace out brothers
But I guess it was just one of those days in Madrid. I mean, even Fernando Verdasco won a match. I would have been 100% certain that Raonic would beat Verdasco, the mental giant that he is. Richard Gasquet lost to Daniel Gimeno Traver - I mean come on! It doesn't make sense! I am going to put it behind me and enjoy the rest of the tennis that lies in store for us this week. In more positive news, Berdych is now 20/1 (we recommeded him @ 50s), and Federer is now 6/1 (we recommeded him @ 20s). It is highly likely now that either Andy Murray or Tomas Berdych will contest the final against the winner of Fed/Rafa and so things are looking up on that front at the very least!
Looking at tomorrow's tennis, I am not even going to make a recommendation. I mean, looking at my record here this week, you guys should just go for the exact opposite of what I say! If you did that this week in Madrid, you would have a 4 out of 4, 100% win record! Things have been that bad! Tomorrow, I see Nadal, Tsonga, Ferrer, Berdych, Haas, Monaco, Almagro, Wawrinka, & Nishikori all winning. If you want to have a bet out of all of those, Haas and Monaco are best priced @ 1/2 in their respective matches to beat Robredo and Anderson. Maybe do an accumulator - they will all definitely win! I guarantee it! ;)
Anyway, all joking aside, no recommendations today. Just marvel at the arrival of the sport's newest superstar, Grigor Dimitrov. We said here a month or two ago that he is a number one in waiting, and today proved that for sure. In he words of auld Andy Gray, take a bow son.
Peace out brothers
Monday 6 May 2013
Madrid Tuesday
Monday at Madrid was not too kind to us! Melzer was well and truly outclassed by Nishikori - I have never seen Kei hit the ball as well on clay, he truly bossed this match and had Melzer scurrying around like a fruitcake all match! It was fantastic hitting and showed me what way the court is playing this year. In the other match, Lopez won the first set before snatching defeat from the jaws of victory to notch up a pretty lame defeat to DGT. So, all in all a bad day, but a better one lies in store tomorrow!
I am only recommending two guys for tomorrow, both odds on shots, but ones which I am very confident of. Firstly, I am recomminding Martin Klizan to outclass Santiago Giraldo @ 1.64. Klizan is a superior player to the Colombian, and he is very adept on this surface as shown in previous weeks. I am going for Klizan to beat Giraldo in my first bet for tomorrow. My second bet for tomorrow is an absolute MAX bet on John Isner to beat Pablo Andujar. This is priced at the moment @ 1.54 on the exchanges and I cannot possibly see this price lasting until the morning. Isner looked excellent today in disposing of three-name Lopez in straight sets and he will hammer Andujar tomorrow. No question about it. Isner will win this match and I would also pretty much guarantee it will be in straight sets too. His serve and forehand are phenomenal, particularly on this surface. The altitude helps his game and the amount of kick on his second serve is unbelievable. If I was pricing this game, I would have Isner about 1.33 and so 1.54 is huge value for tomorrow and is a MAXIMUM bet recommendation. Empty the coffers for this one, and it is not often I say that!!
They are the only two bets I am recommending for tomorrow, but if you want my two cents worth on the other winners for the day, I would go for: Fognini, Paire, Monaco, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Haas, Troicki, Robredo, Simon, Federer, Murray, Raonic, and Djokovic.
Finally, in other thoughts on the outright winner, Federer is still available @ pretty much 20/1 on the exchanges and, judging by the way the courts are playing, that seems like a good bet. These courts are almost indoors and he has beaten Rafa here before. 20/1 would be 6/4 if he somehow reaches the final!
Enjoy tomorrow's action. Over & out :)
I am only recommending two guys for tomorrow, both odds on shots, but ones which I am very confident of. Firstly, I am recomminding Martin Klizan to outclass Santiago Giraldo @ 1.64. Klizan is a superior player to the Colombian, and he is very adept on this surface as shown in previous weeks. I am going for Klizan to beat Giraldo in my first bet for tomorrow. My second bet for tomorrow is an absolute MAX bet on John Isner to beat Pablo Andujar. This is priced at the moment @ 1.54 on the exchanges and I cannot possibly see this price lasting until the morning. Isner looked excellent today in disposing of three-name Lopez in straight sets and he will hammer Andujar tomorrow. No question about it. Isner will win this match and I would also pretty much guarantee it will be in straight sets too. His serve and forehand are phenomenal, particularly on this surface. The altitude helps his game and the amount of kick on his second serve is unbelievable. If I was pricing this game, I would have Isner about 1.33 and so 1.54 is huge value for tomorrow and is a MAXIMUM bet recommendation. Empty the coffers for this one, and it is not often I say that!!
They are the only two bets I am recommending for tomorrow, but if you want my two cents worth on the other winners for the day, I would go for: Fognini, Paire, Monaco, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Haas, Troicki, Robredo, Simon, Federer, Murray, Raonic, and Djokovic.
Finally, in other thoughts on the outright winner, Federer is still available @ pretty much 20/1 on the exchanges and, judging by the way the courts are playing, that seems like a good bet. These courts are almost indoors and he has beaten Rafa here before. 20/1 would be 6/4 if he somehow reaches the final!
Enjoy tomorrow's action. Over & out :)
Sunday 5 May 2013
Madrid preview & rd 1
The Mutua Madrid Masters takes place this week and brings us back to the scene of last year's infamous blue clay. Unfortunately, from a spectator's point of view, the blue clay is gone and has been replaced by the old, traditional red stuff. The main guys on the tour - Djokovic & Rafa included - had threatened to boycott this year's event if the blue clay remained so the tournament organisers had no choice really!
In general, I think this Masters 1000 is the most difficult to predict of all nine 1000s. The clay here does not play like the clay of Rome, Monte-Carlo, and Roland Garros. It is far faster clay, and the venue is at altitude meaning the balls can fly through the air a lot more than usual. I think some of the players rate this 1000 a notch below Rome or Monte-Carlo and so it can be quite hard to predict a winner here. Tomas Berdych, for example, was unlucky not to win the final here last year against Federer, and both of those are available at astronomical prices to win the tournament this year.
Looking at the four quarters, here are my general thoughts on this year's draw:
Q1: This is probably the most unpredictable quarter and contains quite a few of the big names. Dimitrov will give Djokovic a stern test early doors, while Raonic, Davydenko, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, and Tsonga can all be found lurking here. One would expect Djokovic to progress to the semis but you can't be sure. I will take Nole to beat big Jo Willy for a spot in the semis.
Q2: This section of the draw is pretty much between Murray, Juan Monaco (to a lesser extent), and Tomas Berdych. I see Berdych coming through to face Murray in the quarter final with the winner of that going on to meet probably Nole in the semis. Given Berdych's performance here last yeah, plus the fact that he has points to defend, don't be surprised if he emerges from quarter 2 at the expense of Murray.
Q3: Quarter three is a bit of a joke quarter and the draw could not possibly have been better for Nadal. He has only Almagro, Tommy Haas, and David Ferrer to contend with. Haas will no doubt be tired from his Munich title run and the other two, with all due respect (haha) are Rafa's puppets on a clay court. So, there is nothing to see in this quarter. Nadal to emerge without dropping a set. Or a game. Or a point!!?
Q4: Federer would have liked this quarter as soon as he looked at the draw. His return has been made easier with the notable lack of any threats in his quarter to what will be a rare title defence on clay. Only Gasquet or Isner could potentially upset the great man and a meeting with Rafa in the SF is almost guaranteed.
So, the SF lineup for me maybe looks like this: Novak v Berdych, Rafa v Fed. The smart money would be on another Rafa-Nole final with Nole winning again. Looking for value in the draw, I have taken Berdych for a very small stake @ 50/1 on Betfair while Federer looks much too big @ 20/1 on Betfair as well. They were the final pairing last year and so offer some value to have another decent run here at a venue that clearly suits them.
Tomorrow, in first round action, there are two matches which arouse my interest. I am going to have Jurgen Melzer to beat Kei Nishikori @ 3.30 on the exchanges. Melzer leads the head to head 1-0 , is much more comfortable on clay than the Japanese man, and I have a feeling the altitude might suit him better than Kei. It might not come off but it is one of those gut feeling matches so I am going for it.
The other match tomorrow is for Feliciano Lopez to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver @ 2.40 on the exchanges. I am fully aware that Lopez is just returning form an extended injury lay-off but Gimeno Traver is certainly a welcome opener. Lopez has a 1-0 head to head advantage, has played very well here before (third set tie-break loss to Federer), and, much like his boyfriend Fernando Verdasco :-P, he is a resident of Madrid!! I don't like Lopez much, but I think he might get this done tomorrow, probably in three sets.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading! Enjoy the tennis :)
In general, I think this Masters 1000 is the most difficult to predict of all nine 1000s. The clay here does not play like the clay of Rome, Monte-Carlo, and Roland Garros. It is far faster clay, and the venue is at altitude meaning the balls can fly through the air a lot more than usual. I think some of the players rate this 1000 a notch below Rome or Monte-Carlo and so it can be quite hard to predict a winner here. Tomas Berdych, for example, was unlucky not to win the final here last year against Federer, and both of those are available at astronomical prices to win the tournament this year.
Looking at the four quarters, here are my general thoughts on this year's draw:
Q1: This is probably the most unpredictable quarter and contains quite a few of the big names. Dimitrov will give Djokovic a stern test early doors, while Raonic, Davydenko, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, and Tsonga can all be found lurking here. One would expect Djokovic to progress to the semis but you can't be sure. I will take Nole to beat big Jo Willy for a spot in the semis.
Q2: This section of the draw is pretty much between Murray, Juan Monaco (to a lesser extent), and Tomas Berdych. I see Berdych coming through to face Murray in the quarter final with the winner of that going on to meet probably Nole in the semis. Given Berdych's performance here last yeah, plus the fact that he has points to defend, don't be surprised if he emerges from quarter 2 at the expense of Murray.
Q3: Quarter three is a bit of a joke quarter and the draw could not possibly have been better for Nadal. He has only Almagro, Tommy Haas, and David Ferrer to contend with. Haas will no doubt be tired from his Munich title run and the other two, with all due respect (haha) are Rafa's puppets on a clay court. So, there is nothing to see in this quarter. Nadal to emerge without dropping a set. Or a game. Or a point!!?
Q4: Federer would have liked this quarter as soon as he looked at the draw. His return has been made easier with the notable lack of any threats in his quarter to what will be a rare title defence on clay. Only Gasquet or Isner could potentially upset the great man and a meeting with Rafa in the SF is almost guaranteed.
So, the SF lineup for me maybe looks like this: Novak v Berdych, Rafa v Fed. The smart money would be on another Rafa-Nole final with Nole winning again. Looking for value in the draw, I have taken Berdych for a very small stake @ 50/1 on Betfair while Federer looks much too big @ 20/1 on Betfair as well. They were the final pairing last year and so offer some value to have another decent run here at a venue that clearly suits them.
Tomorrow, in first round action, there are two matches which arouse my interest. I am going to have Jurgen Melzer to beat Kei Nishikori @ 3.30 on the exchanges. Melzer leads the head to head 1-0 , is much more comfortable on clay than the Japanese man, and I have a feeling the altitude might suit him better than Kei. It might not come off but it is one of those gut feeling matches so I am going for it.
The other match tomorrow is for Feliciano Lopez to beat Daniel Gimeno-Traver @ 2.40 on the exchanges. I am fully aware that Lopez is just returning form an extended injury lay-off but Gimeno Traver is certainly a welcome opener. Lopez has a 1-0 head to head advantage, has played very well here before (third set tie-break loss to Federer), and, much like his boyfriend Fernando Verdasco :-P, he is a resident of Madrid!! I don't like Lopez much, but I think he might get this done tomorrow, probably in three sets.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading! Enjoy the tennis :)
Saturday 4 May 2013
Sunday Portugal & Munich
I have no bets to offer for Sunday's action. I recommended David Ferrer at the beginning of the week @ 2.10 in Portugal and he takes on Stan Wawrinka in tomorrow's final which you would expect Ferrer to win. We also recommended Tommy Haas to win Munich before the SF stage when he was available @ even money. He is now 1.50 to beat Kohlschreiber so, having already nailed our colours to the mast, I will only be watching the matches tomorrow and won't be having any further bets.
There are a few matches taking place in Madrid main draw tomorrow but nothing really exciting and the action doesn't get properly underway until Monday. I will have a complete preview up tomorrow night.
Over & out :)
There are a few matches taking place in Madrid main draw tomorrow but nothing really exciting and the action doesn't get properly underway until Monday. I will have a complete preview up tomorrow night.
Over & out :)
Friday 3 May 2013
Portugal SF
Tomorrow is a quiet day for me betting wise. I think Haas will win against Dodig for sure and I don't see Brands beating Kohlschreiber even though he is a good price to do so. I think Tommy Haas is a great bet at pretty much even money still to win the tournament outright and that is a recommended bet. He is a cut above the other three remaining players. Several cuts above in fact.
I am more interested in Portugal where I will be having a small bet on Seppi to beat Ferrer for the first time. Seppi is not as good in general as Ferrer but this week Seppi has looked supreme while Ferrer is still not himself. Seppi can be had at 5.6 on Betfair to win this match and I will have a ten spot or something small on that. Other than that, not much else happening tomorrow. Stan should beat Carreno Busta but I have no betting interest in that one.
Recommended bets: tommy haas to win BMW outright at 2.10 on Betfair. Seppi to beat Ferrer in Portugal (small stake) enjoy! Will update for Madrid this weekend :)
I am more interested in Portugal where I will be having a small bet on Seppi to beat Ferrer for the first time. Seppi is not as good in general as Ferrer but this week Seppi has looked supreme while Ferrer is still not himself. Seppi can be had at 5.6 on Betfair to win this match and I will have a ten spot or something small on that. Other than that, not much else happening tomorrow. Stan should beat Carreno Busta but I have no betting interest in that one.
Recommended bets: tommy haas to win BMW outright at 2.10 on Betfair. Seppi to beat Ferrer in Portugal (small stake) enjoy! Will update for Madrid this weekend :)
Thursday 2 May 2013
Friday at Munich & Portugal
Gulbis v Haas proved to be the close encounter we thought it would be. I didn't see the match but, by all accounts, the verteran German more than deserved his place in the QFs. Haas is a quality player and I regret not taking him @ 2.50 when I had the chance two days before this match. Anyway, in other action today, Monfils lost to Brands as we said he might! In Portugal, we got all four matches correct, but there were no recommended bets, mainly due to restrictive prices.
Tomorrow sees QF action taking place in Munich and Portugal. There are only one or two interesting matches from a betting point of view in my opinion - a lot of 1.4s which are just too low and one or two 50/50s where my opinion just isn't strong enough to make a recommendation. Let me tell you who I think will be the winners tomorrow: I think Tipsarevic, Haas, and Dolgopolov will all win in Munich but I remain pretty much undecided on the Kohlschreiber v Troicki match. Because I see that as almost a 50/50, I will be backing Troicki and recommending him because he is available on the exchanges @ 3.52. Troicki is more comfortable on clay than Kohlschreiber - he is more suited to it. Granted Kohly is defending champ here and has a 3-1 head to head over Troicki, but I am going to take the Serb @ 3.50 for a small stake. It is a value bet. Dolgopolov is another one I will back in Munich tomorrow. He is available @ 1.52 to beat Dodig and I think he will. I think clay might well be the Dog's best surface and he has a drop shot to die for! Take him to end Dodig's run.
In Portugal, I think Wawrinka, Ferrer, and Fognini will all win but again, none of these stoke the flames for a bet as they are too short in price. The only match where I might have a bet is the Seppi v Robredo affair. It is a hard one to call. I think Seppi is a better all round player than Robredo. I saw his match today and he hammered Falla, delivering bakery products in the second set. Having said that, Robredo is in his best form for years, and clay is his surface. I am so close to tipping Seppi in this match but it is too close to call and I can make a strong case for both players so I am going to avoid it!
Recommended bets for tomorrow are Troicki to beat Kohlschreiber @ 3.50 (small stake) and Dolgopolov to beat Dodig @ 1.52. Enjoy the tennis :)
Tomorrow sees QF action taking place in Munich and Portugal. There are only one or two interesting matches from a betting point of view in my opinion - a lot of 1.4s which are just too low and one or two 50/50s where my opinion just isn't strong enough to make a recommendation. Let me tell you who I think will be the winners tomorrow: I think Tipsarevic, Haas, and Dolgopolov will all win in Munich but I remain pretty much undecided on the Kohlschreiber v Troicki match. Because I see that as almost a 50/50, I will be backing Troicki and recommending him because he is available on the exchanges @ 3.52. Troicki is more comfortable on clay than Kohlschreiber - he is more suited to it. Granted Kohly is defending champ here and has a 3-1 head to head over Troicki, but I am going to take the Serb @ 3.50 for a small stake. It is a value bet. Dolgopolov is another one I will back in Munich tomorrow. He is available @ 1.52 to beat Dodig and I think he will. I think clay might well be the Dog's best surface and he has a drop shot to die for! Take him to end Dodig's run.
In Portugal, I think Wawrinka, Ferrer, and Fognini will all win but again, none of these stoke the flames for a bet as they are too short in price. The only match where I might have a bet is the Seppi v Robredo affair. It is a hard one to call. I think Seppi is a better all round player than Robredo. I saw his match today and he hammered Falla, delivering bakery products in the second set. Having said that, Robredo is in his best form for years, and clay is his surface. I am so close to tipping Seppi in this match but it is too close to call and I can make a strong case for both players so I am going to avoid it!
Recommended bets for tomorrow are Troicki to beat Kohlschreiber @ 3.50 (small stake) and Dolgopolov to beat Dodig @ 1.52. Enjoy the tennis :)
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