Having done a preview and analysis of the overall draw for the French Open, here are the first round bets I am recommending. I would obviously have an opinion on who will win every match each day, but the only way we will recommend a bet is if the player represents value, i.e. his price is bigger than I think his chances represent. So, here are all of my first round picks:
Sunday:
Federer v Carreno-Busta: Unfortunately for Federer, he drew the best of the qualifiers in Pablo Carreno-Busta. This guy is a clay courter through and through and will be a factor in clay court tennis for the next few years. I am not for one second saying that he will beat Federer here, but I am going to recommend a lay in this one. Lay Federer 3-0 @ 1.52. That means we only need Carreno-Busta to get one set, which I think he will. I wouldn't be surprised if he took the opening set before losing in 4.
Darcis v Llodra: Steve Darcis has come through the qualifying rounds here, and, as such, he will have a big advantage over Llodra. Llodra is one of my very favourite players in the world. But he is a bit of a pig on clay! He really is a fish out of water on the red stuff. Obviously he can't get his feet set properly on clay for the volley - clay doesn't suit his game style at all. I am going for Darcis in this one. He is available @ 2.28 on Betfair and has been known to deliver on the big stage in the past - most noticeably against Berdych at the Olympics! I fancy him in 3 or 4.
They are the only two Sunday recommendations. I won't be having any other pre match bets but I fancy the following to win tomorrow : Kavcic, Anderson, Raonic, Sousa, Bautista-Agut, Seppi, Simon, Chardy, Munoz De La Nava, Hajek, Querrey, Ferrer, Troicki, and Granollers.
Monday and Tuesday first round:
Alund v Roger-Vasselin: Like Carreno-Busta, Martin Alund of Argentina has been another revelation this year. He is an out and out dirtballer and I think he has far more than the 33% chance of winning this one than his odds suggest. He is available at even better than 2/1 on Betfair and I will recommend him at those prices against a player more comortable on a hard court. Alund to progress.
Nieminen v Mathieu: Mathieu is available here @ 3.00 which, again, seems too big to me. Nieminen just came off a final loss in Dusseldorf and now face a quick tournaround against a Frenchman who can beat the best on his day. I think Mathieu will prefer the clay than the Finn and I will take PHM to come through here.
Dodig v Pella: I fancy Guido Pella, another Argentine newcomer to upset the odds here against Ivan Dodig. Pella has looked super in recent weeks and I think he can beat the Croatian journeyman but it could be five sets as Dodig is relentless. Pella to win @ 2.50
Berlocq v Isner: Carlos Berlocq enters this match as favourite, but, to be honest, I think the match is on Isner's racket. Isner has no option but to step up his game after a few poor weeks. This is a grand slam, and one where Isner has a good record. Indeed he was 2 sets to 1 up on Rafa here in 2011 so he will feel good about his chances. I don't like Berlocq anyway and he is a bit of choke artist. I will definitely go for Isner here, probably in 4 sets, but he is a definite recommendation @ 2.12 on Betfair.
Kubot v Teixeira: Teixeira has looked good in qualifying and I think the home support could well help him to a win over Lukas Kubot. Kubot can be very up and down, but much like Berlocq, he is very unreliable. I like the 3.05 on offer for Teixeira and that is a recommended bet.
Youzhny v Andujar: I have thought long and hard about this one. On one hand I see a player who I really like, and whose form has been decent, and on the other, I see Pablo Andujar. I don't particularly like Andujar. His game is very very good in terms of technique and ability, but he can be so frail mentally. He is the kind of player who could be on fire, but could lose it all in the blink of an eye. He was 5-0 up in the third against Rafa here a few years back and still lost the set! Howerve, I have seen plenty of him in recent weeks and I think the clay will give him the egde over the Russian General. It will be a close match but I am going for Andujar to progress @ 1.96
Ramos v Janowicz: I like JJ to win this one. He is 1.77 on the exchanges agianst a player that he was beaten by only a few weeks ago, but I think Janowicz will rise to the bigger occasion better than Albert Ramos. Janowicz, to his credit is on fire the last week or two, so I think he will hit through Ramos in 3 or 4 sets.
Mayer v Istomin: Florian Mayer will beat Denis Istomin but is only 1.50 to do so. He is far more comfortable on clay than Istomin, who is one of my favourite players. Mayer ran Murray exceptionally close in Madrid, and he will beat Istomin here too. Mayer has taken his anti-Istomins!
Bolelli v Lu: Yen Hsun Lu is not as adept on red clay as a player like Simone Bolelli, and yet the Italian is available @ 1.90 on Betfair. If this was on grass or even hard, I would probably favour the man from Chinese Taipei, but this is the French Open and Bolelli will win.
Delbonis v Reister: Julien Reister came through the qualifiers here with flying colours, but I think Federico Delbonis will come through here. Delbonis is a much-improved clay courter from South America and, if this match was taking place in the Copa Claro or something like that, I think Delbonis would be favourite. I will go for Delbonis @ 2.55 which I think is terrific value!
Pospisil v Zeballos: It's almost becoming a bit of a South American theme here, but I think Horacio Zeballos - conqueror of Rafael Nadal in Argentina earlier this year will beat Vasek Posposil. Pospisil is far more comfortable on hard courts. Zeballos will win this match, I think pretty comfortably, and is available @ 1.75 on Betfair.
Sijsling v Melzer: This is a really big one for me. I cannot comprehend how people think Sijsling will beat Jurgen Melzer. Melzer, whose form has been less than brilliant recently, is a clay courter. He has been in the semi finals here in Paris! Sijsling is a grass courter. He is alien on clay. The only reason he is even close to Melzer in the betting here is because he had a good showing in Dusseldorf this week, when nobody else gave a s**t!! There is not a chance in my book that Melzer will lose to Igor Sijsling and he is going to be a maximum recommendation @ a whopping 2.10 on Betfair. Sijsling's main weapon is his serve, and Melzer's best weapon is arguably his return. He has always done well against big servers and he will also negate Sijsling's left handedness - being a lefty himself, which takes away another on the Dutchman's assets! I expect Melzer in easy straights.
So, they are all my first round recommendations - I will post each day who I think will win the following day's matches until the second round, when I will put up more recommendations. Until then, enjoy the tennis. Come on Gulbis!! :)
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