Portugal and Munich Round 2

Today was a very very good day for the blog with 4 wins and only 2 losses for a 66% strike rate. The winners which I recommended in yesterday's blog  were Pablo Carreno Busta (2.40) to beat Benneteau, Gulbis (1.61) to beat Nieminen, Korolev (3.15) to beat Baghdatis, and Monfils (2.10) to beat Melzer. Thankfully, three of those were very attractive prices and made for a very good day! The only losses were Machado (2.70) at home to Hanescu, and Berlocq at the hands of Albert Ramos. My thinking  was that home advantage might sway the issue Machado's way but it was not to be on what was otherwise a great day with plenty of profit. Any day we can finish off with more money than we began with is a very good day and the gospel according to this blog!!

I am not as enamoured by tomorro's action, either in Munich nor in Portugal, but, as always, there are at least a few matches that stoke my interest. Looking at Munich first, of the four mens' matches, there are two which I would recommend for a bet. As offered in yesterday's blog, I think Ivan Dodig is certainly worth a bet at what I think is too high a price for what is bound to be a close match. Dodig is available onb the excahnges @ 5.10 and that is crazy for this match on this court. Dodig is a more natural clay court player than Cilic with his all round game pretty much based on defence. In the true sense of a derby, he will run Cilic - The Holy Man of Medjugorje - close, as their level head to head record would also indicate. The other match I am interested in in Munich tomorrow, is for Viktor Troicki to get the better of Radek Stepanek. The Worm has never been particularly comfortable on clay and I would recommend the 1.82 available on the resurgent Serb to progress here.

Strangely, there is no recommended bet for Portugal tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I would probably recommend Benoit Paire, but his price @ 1.70 is too short to beat a clay court specialist like Hanescu, especially given Paire's complete lack of effort and care-free style of tennis in his first round win over Igor Sjisling. Paire wore a hoody in that match (a first for me and indeed for tennis perhaps!) and looked as though he would rather have been anywhere else in the whole world. Given that performance, plus Hanescu's current form, I wouldn't be surprised to see Paire knocked out so I think it is safer to just steer clear on that one! I also think Fognini, Ferrer, and Carreno Busta will win in Portugal tomorrow but none of their prices appeal to me so they are not being recommended.

Enjoy the tennis tomorrow and I am glad I could give you a few winners and put us all in the green today! Until this time tomorrow, over and out :)

Munich and the former Estoril

Last week was an easy one to pick! We recommended Nadal here before the week began and in all fairness, he was a very reasonable price @ 1.50 to defend his Barcelona title. He did so with ease, and it was a lot more simple than walking into your local bank manager and asking for a deposit interest rate of 50% - you would be led away in a straight jacket! Unfortunately Bucharest wasn't as straight-forward to predict and we got the final wrong - I thought Rosol might self-destruct but he was playing with a superior motive this week apparently. His dad passed away recently and it was a very emotional affair for Rosol all week. I doff my hat to him - he did very well and was very composed in what was his first ATP world tour final.

Moving onto this week, there are two ATP 250s taking place. One is the BMW Open in Munich, and the other is what used to be Estoril but what is now being called the Portugal Open. Looking at the fields, I think Munich has more strength in depth but Portugal has the best player with David Ferrer taking part. I will get straight to the point with the Portugal Open. Ferrer is going to win it and is odds against  to do so on the exchanges. He had an injury a few weeks back and suffered a surprise loss in Barcelona to Dimitry Tursunov. Ferrer is not one to lie down and take a defeat easily and I can see him giving a gung-ho effort this week to ensure a return to top form before Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros. There is literally nobody in the field who will trouble him. Wawrinka, Fognini, and maybe Robredo could be dangers but in all honesty I cann't see anyone troubling Ferrer and he is a very solid recommendation to take the title this week @ 2.10.

Munich is not so stright-forward and there are several strong pretenders to the throne. The number one seed is Janko Tipsarevic and he would be a big lay in my book. He is a pig on clay and is a cert not to win it. I would have the winner of Monfils v Melzer coming out of the top quarter and indeed going all the way to the final as there is no standout in Q2. The bottom half in where all of the talent is and the third quarter in particular is stacked. Any one of Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Jarrko Nieminen, or Florian Mayer could come out of it. I would probably narrow that down to Haas or Gulbis, depending on who wins their second round clash. The bottom quarter has Cilic, Tursunov, and Dolgopolov and that is a dangerous trio as well. I think the semi final line-ups might well be Monfils v Kohlschreiber and Gulbis v Dolgopolov. In terms of a winner I would look for the value in this one. Any one of six or seven guys could win it so there will be no recommended bet but if you do fancy a flutter in it, go for any one of Gulbis (10.00), Monfils (17.00), or Dolgopolov (11.00) on Betfair.

Finally, there are quite a few individual matches jumping out at me tomorrow to get the week off to a good start. Quite breifly I will go through them below:

First up, I am amazed that Ivan Dodig is available @ 4.30 to beat Marin Cilic. This surface is far better suited to Dodig's game and this Croatian derby will be very close. Dodig had a great win over Nikolay Davydenko today 4 & 4 and in my book, the Russian is a better player on clay than Marin Cilic. Dodig is a recommended bet for a small stake @ 4.30.

Another match in Munich is Gulbis v Nieminen and Gulibs will win this one @ 1.61 if you are interested. He has never even lost a set to Nieminen so this one looks a sure thing to me.

Evgeny Koroloev is another worth a bet tomorrow to oust Marcos Baghdatis. They meet in Munich as well and Korolev is available @ 3.15. This could be a steal for two reasons. Firstly, this is Baghdatis' first clay court match of the year and he is a notoriously slow starter on this surface. It doesn't suit his game at all while Korolev has played upwards of ten matches on red stuff in the last month including Davis Cup, qualifiers, and challengers. I think he could well beat Baghdatis tomorrow and is worth a bet @ 3.15.

The last match I am interested in in Munich is for Monfils to beat Melzer. Melzer is one of those players I hate backing and I hate laying. I hate being involved in any match he is in but Monfils has a 3-0 head to head over him, is 2.10 to beat him, and I think Melzer's best days are proabably behind him. I think Gael needs a strong week here.

Im Portugal tomorrow, I like Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Julien Benneteau @ 2.40. Carreno-Busta is on a serious run on clay and is made for this surface, unlike Benneteau who hasn't played much clay this year and who doesn't really enjoy the surface.

I also like Berlocq @ 1.85 to beat Ramos. Berlocq has come on a lot in the last year and is a more solid player than Ramos.

And finally, I also like home favourite Rui Machado to beat Victor Hanescu @ 2.70 as well in Portugal.

That is a bumper list of recommeded bets tomorrow - more than likely not all of them will come off but the purpose of this blog is just to inform and to point you in the right direction and help people make up their own mind. Those are my opinions and hopefully the majority of them will come through tomorrow. Just to summarise, the recommended list for tomorrow is: Dodig @ 4.30, Gulbis @ 1.61, Koroloev @ 3.15, Monfils @ 2.10, Carreno-Busta @ 2.40, Berlocq @ 1.85, and Machado @ 2.70.

Enjoy the tennis and good luck! :)

Bucharest final

Yesterday was a bad day! Not only did Rafa rout Milos in straights, but GGL came along and spoiled the Mayer party too! Just a really quick update today with only hald an hour left until that Bucharest final kicks off. I will be taking Guillermor Garcia Lopez to beat Rosol. I think GGL is quite a good big match player and indeed has beaten the likes of Nadal and Murray in the past. When he gets a run of form together he can be very hot and very consistent. I know Rosol is playing well but I think under the pressure of playing for a title, GGL might well hold the nerve better than Rosol. Recommendation is for GGL to win the final @ 2.50.

In the Barcelona final I am not going to recommend anything. Nadal is 1.10 and we recommended him at the start of the week @ 1.50 so nothing more to see there. To say Almagro is his lap dog would be both an understatement and an offence to lapdogs. If Almagro was a set and 5-1 up I would still back Nadal. Nothing to see in that one.

Enjoy the Bucharest final. I will blog about Munich & Portugal previews later. :)

Barcelona & Bucharest Saturday

Today saw the elimination of this blog's favourite player, Ernests Gulbis, from the Barcelona Banc Sabadel Open at the hands of Milos The Missile Raonic. I must hold the hands up on that one and admit I got it wrong on this occasion. I don't regret going for Gulbis as that was my mindset and I stuck to the gut feeling. I am still surprised that he lost but it seems like it was the right result given the match stats. Having said that, Gulbis did have set pont on his racket in the tie-break to bring it to one set all so who knows what would have happened if he had taken it.

In other action today, apart from the Gulbis match, the blog was a very positive two from three. We recommended Tommy Robredo to beat Tomas Berdych @ a big price of 3.20 which he did. We also plumped for Florian Mayer to beat Victor Hanescu, which he did in straight sets @ another nice 1.90. Troicki, unfortunately, was steam-rolled by Lukas Rosol which was another surprise for me but, all in all, even given the Gulbis result, we have had another pretty decent day.

Moving forward to tomorrow's matches, I think Rafa v Raonic is certainly the highlight and it actually holds a slight amount of value. Even though I am not a Raonic fan, I have to say he has been very impressive this week while Rafa has been only so-so by his lofty standards. While I think Nadal will win for sure, I think there is a good chance Raonic gets a set and this is worth a bet @ about 4/1 or 9/2 on the exchanges. You can back Rafa to win 2 sets to 1 @ about 5.50 on Betfair and that is my recommendation for that match. Nadal is definitely not the best returner of serve in world tennis and he faces the best server in world tennis here. Raonic will use his main weapon to stay in the match. Expect Nadal to be camped about ten feet behind the baseline for the majority of this one. Once it gets to a tie-break, Raonic would fancy his chances, even against Nadal on clay. It is certainly worth a small bet for the giant Canadian import to get a set. Almagro will beat Kohlschreiber in the other semi - there is nothing to see there.

Turning our attention to Bucharest, play begins with Lukas Rosol taking on Gilles Simon. I can't see anything but a rather facile win for the Frenchman here. I think he will be a nightmare match-up for Rosol with his defensive, brick-wall style of play. Simon is a bit short priced for me @ 1.40 - unless you have a lot of money to bet with! In the other semi, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has shown a welcome return to form and takes on Florian Mayer. That will be a good match. I like GGL's game but I think Mayer will come through in that one, probably in three sets. Again, the SP looks a tad short @ 1.62 but maybe take him in play at closer to 1.80 or so. Simon and Mayer to come out on top in Romania.

Enjoy your Saturday tennis! :)

Barcelona and Bucharest Friday

Thursday was a fantastic day for the blog with 2 wins from 2. Bellucci beat Tursunov in Barcelona @ 1.92 and Mayer beat Goffin in Bucharest @ 1.82 both as recommended by this blog yesterday. Another tip from yesterday, Martin Klizan (tipped @ 2.32) is now only two games from victory over Phillip Kohlschreiber and is ahead 4-3 in the third set. He is now priced at about 1.77 and I reckon he will close it out in the morning. Unfortunately, the rains arrived in Barcelona at that point and haven't ceased since.Here's hoping we will have a dryer day tomorrow.

Because of that deluge today, tomorrow is an absolutely packed schedule in Barcelona. Two of my other recommendations from yesterday still haven't taken to the court. Gulbis takes on Raonic tomorrow and I am sticking with my man Gulbis who is now available @ almost 2.50 or 6/4 in old money on the exchanges. Have a read of yesterday's entry for why I fancy Gulbis here. I will stick with my recommendation for a small bet on Tommy Robredo to beat Tomas Berdych as well.

In new action tomorrow, there are two matches taking place in the Bucharest QF's that I fancy. I think Viktor Troicki will be too solid on these clay courts for Lukas Rosol. Troicki is certainly a better player than Rosol and especially so on clay. Rosol has had a good tournament but Troicki is proven on the red stuff and indeed famously forced Andy Murray to five absolutely punishing sets at the French in 2010. Troicki has been in brutal form for a long spell but has shown signs of a comeback in recent weeks and I am very confident he will beat Rosol here. Take Troicki @ 2.02 on Betfair.

The other match I am interested in is Florian Mayer v Victor Hanescu. Mayer is available @ 1.90 and I think he is a far more complete player than the Romanian. Probably the only reason the betting is so close for this one is because Hanescu will have a home crowd to cheer him on. He is a decent player on clay. Nothing more. And he has long since had his day. I think Mayer is a far better all-round player and again, I am quite confident that the German will come through here. Take Mayer @ 1.90.

To conclude, Friday's recommendations are: Gulbis @ 2.50, Robredo @ 3.10, Troicki @ 2.02, and Mayer @ 1.90. Hope we have another day like today! Come on Ernests! :)

Barcelona & Bucharest Thursday Preview & Selections

Benoit Paire was a source of joy for us today as he brought in a much appreciated win against Pablo Andujar in Barcelona. The reason we tipped Paire for this match was mainly due to the fact that Andujar has the mental strength of, well, someone like Fernando Verdasco! How he has won two career titles I'll never know. Anyway, I saw the scoreboard when Andujar was 4-0 up in the first set and then the next time I saw it, Paire was leading 6-4 5-4 - unbelievable stuff...... got a good laugh out of that! Elsewhere today, Klizan was too good for Montanes but if I had to have one winner today of the two recommendations it would have been Paire so I won't complain. I also backed Gilles Simon before his match against Nieminen which turned out well, but, unfortunately I also ventured into the Monfils - Brands encounter in favour of the Frenchman and that turned out to be costly when he retired injured 2-0 down in the second set. All in all it was a pretty good day, not tipping Robredo was a regret given the fact that these are his home courts and Dimitrov was probably tired from his MC run, but it wasn't a bad day all in all.

Tomorrow is one of those days where I really fancy about five different bets! Some days you get no matches that stand out and then others, like tomorrow, there are matches jumping out at me from all angles! Here are the ones I fancy:

Tursunov v Bellucci (Barcelona) : I like Bellucci in this one, He is available at about 1.94 and that is a great bet. Bellucci is much more comfortable on this surface than the aggressive but sometimes wild Tursunov. I think there is a lot of stock being put into the fact that Dimitry took out Ferrer today. It was quite obvious that Ferrer was sub par. If he was on form, that would have been a routine, straight set rout of the Russian. As it stands, Bellucci will fancy his chances and I do too. Take Bellucci to win this one @ 1.94 (probably in three sets)

Klizan v Kohlschreiber (Barcelona) : I probably underestimated Klizan a little today. He is more adept on this surface than I gave him credit for and certainly moves better than Kohlschreiber on it. In my opinion Kohly is suited way more towards grass and he can be found wanting on the red stuff. If Klizan can beat Montanes in straights on clay in Spain, he can beat Kohlschreiber too. Take Klizan @ 2.36

Raonic v Gulbis (Barcelona) : Probably unsurprisingly for some of the regular readers, this is where my main recommendation lies for tomorrow. Ernests Gulbis has played Milos Raonic twice in the past. Ernests Gulbis has lost to Milos Raonic twice in the past. The good thing about those matches for Ernests Gulbis is that they were in the past. My man is a completely different player now than he was back then. Apart from the obvious technique change on the forehand wing, the main reason for Gulbis' improvement has been his change of attitude. He has desire these days which is what he always lacked. He knows he is a better tennis player than Milos Raonic. Even though Raonic beat Gulbis in their sole clay meeting to date, I have no doubt whatsoever in my mind that Gulbis will beat him tomorrow. He moves a million times better than Raonic, he is more solid from the back of the court, and he has been in unbelievable form all year. Raonic's main weapon as we all know is his serve. This surface takes away that advantage and gives Gulbis a chance to get into every point. Once this match goes to a neutral rally, Gulbis is the man. Somehow, he is available @ 2.30 on Betfair to get the better of Milos The Missile, and that is a no-brainer in my book. I will be into Gulbis for a maximum stake (possibly to the detriment of some of my other recommendations for tomorrow!) Take Gulbis to progress in this one. I have a feeling he will do it in straights. (PS take a look at this now infamous clip of the last time these two met on clay!)

Robredo v Berdych (Barcelona) : Robredo is worth a small bet here. He seems to be back to the form of yesteryear and these are his home courts. He loves it around here and hammered Grigor Dimitrov today. Berdych is apparently nursing a slight shoulder injury and I would recommend backing Robredo for a small stake @ 3.30 on the exchanges.

Goffin v Mayer (Bucharest) : Florian Mayer is a strong favourite for this match in my book but is available @ 1.82 on Betfair. I think he will have too much in terms of experience for the sometimes shaky but talented young Belgian. Mayer hammered him in their only other meeting earlier this year, and although it's nothing to go by given Goffin's run of form at that time, it might just plant a negative seed in the young lad's mind! Take Mayer, the proven clay courter @ 1.82.

Just to emphasise, the main recommedation for tomorrow is Gulbis, with smaller stakes on each of the others outlined above. Enjoy the tennis and hopefully we will have a good day! :)

Barcelona Wednesday

Today was a great day for the blog in Barcelona. Our only recommendation we made yesterday - Thomaz Bellucci to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta @ 1.82 - obliged, but during the day, we also had Berdych @ 2.10, Gulbis @ 1.55, and Chardy @ 1.90. Gulbis drifted from 1.42 to 1.55 before the match so that was an on-the-spot decision to get involved. It also demonstrates the importance to keep an eye on the market - if we hadn't checked that we would have missed out because I refused to get involved @ 1.42 which was just too low. 1.55 seemed about right.

To be honest, I completely overlooked Berdych v Davydenko in last night's blog. I knew it would be close and backed Berdych down a break in the first set. I had also missed the Chardy match somehow, and he was way overpriced @ 1.90 to beat Lorenzi. Thanks to my close acquaintance who brought that one to my attention! :)

Looking at tomorrow's action, there are some interesting and appealing bets out there as always. There are two matches in particular which I am drawn to. I believe Albert Montanes will have a little too much experience and guile for Martin Klizan and is available @ 2.10 on Betfair. He is an out and out clay rat and was just made to play this horrible style of clay court tennis but he will draw Klizan into a dog fight and I think he will out-fox him in the end. This is one of Montanes' favourite tournaments and he was clinical in a straight set rout of Ricardis Berankis yesterday.

The other match I am particularly interested in involves my old nemesis Pablo Andujar again. Tomorrow in Barcelona he plays Benoit Paire, a player who holds a 2-0 head to head record over him, including one victory on clay. Paddy Power have Paire as the 8/11 favourite and rightly so but he is still available @ 2.02 on Betfair and that is a solid recommendation. If you only fancy one bet tomorrow, let this be it. Paire is a better tennis player than Pablo Andujar. It's as simple as that. He does pretty much everything better and the main thing is that he is mentally a much stronger player. Take Paire for the win @ 2.02. Enjoy the tennis and keep the eyes open for other opportunites if and when they arise!

Barcelona Tuesday

Monday in Barcelona was a mixed bag. We had five of seven winners correct, but, unfortunately, Grega Zemlja was one of the casualties, losing out to Pablo Andujar 7-6 6-7 2-6 in a match he probably should have won. Anyway, it has been a very good week and tomorrow is another opportunity to get back on the horse.

There are a few matches tomorrow where I would be pretty confident, but maybe only one or two where I would recommend a bet. Ernests Gulbis, my favourite player by a long way these days, will take out Fernando Verdasco, that's for sure. But he is 2/5 to do so and that is just too short, even against a complete clown like Verdasco. It is on clay afterall, in Spain, so 2/5 is no value for me. I believe that one is best to be avoided, even though I have fully sure Ernests will overturn his 0-2 head to head record against 'Hot Sauce' Tobasco. Where I do fancy a bet however, is for Thomaz Bellucci to overcome the home favourite Pablo Carreno-Busta @ 1.82 on the exchanges. I have watched Carreno-Busta in action against Andujar in Casablanca and thought he was quite useful on this surface. He beat Robin Haase today in Barcelona as we said he would in a third set breaker, but, he is still only a young chap learning his trade. Bellucci has been around the block a long time now, and, even though I see hard courts as his best surface, he grew up on the clay and fancies himself as a bit of a specialist dirtballer. If Bellucci shows up and plays anything resembling his A game this will be no contest. In reality, I imagine it could go three sets but I would still fancy Bellucci to win it and will recommend him @ 1.82.

Unfortunately, Fabio Fognini pulled out of Bucharest and has been replaced by lucky loser Filippo Volandri. Fognini had been due to play Le Monf tomorrow and I was sure Monfils would do a job on him but Fognini has decided Monte-Carlo took too much out of him! It is always a good time to back a player like Fognini in the first round of a tournament following such a successful week but on this occasion we won't get that chance.

Elswhere tomorrow, I think Falla should beat Kavcic @ 1.86 and Hajek should beat Roger-Vasselin @ 2.10 but I am not going to offer those as recommendations and haven't backed them myself. At the moment, Bellucci will be the only bet for tomorrow and he is my recommendation to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta in Barcelona @ 1.82. Enjoy.

Rafa v Nole Review plus Barcelona & Bucharest rd 1

We finished Monte Carlo with another positive betting recommendation which was to lay Rafa 2-0 @ 2.20. I had been tempted to back Nole at 2/1 but Nadal was king of the clay and this was his palace after all. What transpired was some breathtaking tennis from Novak Djokovic, so solid in every department as usual. His backhand cross court and his return of serve really stood out to me today, along with practically all of Rafa's net play, but for very different reasons. Nadal has looked like a beginner at the net all week and that is something I'm sure Uncle Toni will rectify for the coming weeks. In terms of Roland Garros, Nadal has shifted from 1.70 to 2.00 while Djokovic has moved in from 4.50 to 2.86 which is a real sickener as I was going to take him a week ago at the larger price!

Anyway, looking closer to the present... This week brings us to Barcelona for a 500 and Bucharest for a 250. Nadal has another ridiculous streak going in Barcelona and he will not be beaten there this week. There is no Nole and no real danger to Rafa. In Bucharest, I fancy maybe Gael Monfils as an outside shot @ 12.00 on the exchanges. He will have to beat Fognini in rd one which will be one of my recommendations in tomorrow's blog.

Other than that, there are a few matches which appeal to me tomorrow but none more so than Pablo Andujar v Grega Zemlja in Barcelona. Andujar is THE mental midget of mental midgets and is coming up against a player who I believe to be very under-rated. Zemlja is priced @ 2.76 on Betfair and that is a recommended bet for tomorrow. In other matches, I might take a small cut at an accumulator just for something very different! I fancy Zemlja, Carreno-Busta, Montanes, Bedene, Gulbis, Kuznetsov, and Lorenzi all to progress in Barcelona. I never do accumulators but this is day one after a good week in Monte Carlo and I think €5 returns about €350 so why not have a cut! If you just fancy the one bet, take Zemlja as the bet of the day. Over and out.

Monte Carlo final - Nadal v Djokovic

Tomorrow brings a final between the best two players in the world. Nadal is going for an historic and phenomenal ninth title in a row here while Djokovic is looking to win a title he has never won before. In all honesty, I didn't think we would be finishing the week with this final, given Nole's ankle problems, but, here we are and let's get analyzing!

I believe if both players went into tomorrow's match playing their best clay tennis on this particular court, then Rafael Nadal would win. As it stands, Nadal has played nowhere near his best tennis this week and I am feeling pretty certain that Djokovic can inflict a first defeat upon Rafa here since 2003. Nadal was vulnerable against both Tsonga and Dimitrov and, he won't have the luxury of looping moonball forehands to the backhand of Novak Djokovic as he did with those two afforementioned players. Djokovic played his best match of the week in his semi final against Fognini today and he will be confident going into battle against Rafa tomorrow. As memory serves me, these two haven't met since last year's Roland Garros final and this match will be a good curtain-raiser for another RG final in a few week's time.

Betting-wise, this has been a very good week, and, as such, I won't be getting too involved tomorrow. It is very hard to back against Nadal in general, particularly on clay and even more so on this court. I went for Nadal at 1.50 at the start of the week. He is still that price for tomorrow's final if anyone is interested. Personally, the only recommendation I will be making is to lay Rafa to win 2-0 @ close enough to even money (2.20) on Betfair, meaning you win the bet as long as Novak gets at least one set. This match is hard to call and not really one to bet on. Be observant tomorrow - we could be seeing a lot more of this match-up in the coming weeks! Nadal in three.

QF review & SF preview

Today was a great day in Monte-Carlo for this blogger. Apart from Wawrinka's loss to Big Jo we had  Fognini beating Gasquet @ 3/1, we had Dimitrov +6.5 days to beat Nadal, we had Nadal to win 2 sets to 1 @ 7/1 and we had Nole in straights! If only every day was as good!

The highlight of the day was probably Dimitrov's performance against Rafa on what is Rafa' perfect surface. Grigor Dimitrov is the future of tennis. He is a number one in the making and he is a future grand slam winner. And he showed it today. To put up a performance like that against Rafael Nadal on this court is a phenomenal achievement and I think Rafa acknowledged as much afterwards. There are very few players if any who could have gotten to 4-4 in the third with Rafa here but baby Fed managed it. His game is so modelled on Federer it is bordering on the ridiculous but he has improved a lot and his forehand is now actually more penetrating than Federer's is in my opinion. His serve needs a bit of work but he is well on the way. Everything else is pretty much perfect.

Elsewhere, the best looking man in world tennis kept his fantastic streak alive as he dismantled Richard Gasquet 6 & 2. He was asked yesterday if he liked Gasquet's style of play to which he replied "I like my style of play!" He is brimming with confidence at the moment and Nole will have to be very much on his game tomorrow to contain this man.

In tomorrow's action I am virtually certain that Rafa will win easily, definitely 2-0 (which is available @ 1.48 on Betfair) while I think there is a great chance for Fabio to get a set and so I would take Djokovic 2-1 in that match @ 5.00. Enjoy the tennis! And I hope you all made a few pound today!

Monte Carlo Friday. QF Day

Quick blog tonight. Today was a good day with Fognini obliging @ 4.60. He hammered Berdych and showed what a top clay courter he is. Also, was good to see Dimitrov win when he he is expected to and move on to the business end of the tournament. Wawrinka showed unbelievable class against Murray and will take his place in the QFs as well.

Tomorrow, I fancy another crack at Fognini, this time against Gasquet @ 3.90 on Betfair. It will be a close match. Fognini is more at home on these courts and his form is exceptional at the moment. I will also recommend Stan the Man to beat Jo tomorrow in their match. Stan is trading at 1.84 and he is definitely a better clay courter than Tsonga, who can be suspect on it sometimes. Elsewhere, I can't see Djokovic being troubled by Nieminen and that should be straights for Nole. In the last match I am going for Nadal to extend his Monte Carlo streak but I expect Dimitrov to give him plenty of trouble. I think Dimitrov could get a set and I fancy him to beat the 6.5 game handicap. Nadal in three.

Gulbis Monaco review plus Thursday preview & picks

Alas, a loss. Gulbis beat himself. I didn't see the match live due to work but was looking at a live scoreboard for the third set and saw some highlights/read some reports afterwards. It seems like Gulbis got incredibly frustrated and saw red on numerous occasions. To get to the point where you are giving away a game penalty for smashing a racket is beyond forgiveness but I guess that's what makes Gulbis who he is and you know you are taking on that risk when you back him. He was one more tantrum from being defaulted and while I'm glad it didn't come to that, I wish he would have channeled his anger a little better.

Gulbis is a better player than Juan Monaco. Monaco was exactly what I thought he would be today - a backboard. He gets the ball back, hits it high over the net, gets lots of slow first serves in, takes no risks. To be honest he is the kind of player I hate to watch. He is the kind of player who will never win anything of significance. He will grind out a few clay court 250s in South America but will he ever win a Slam or win a Masters 1000?? No he won't. Not in a million years. Gulbis has that chance, He hits a big ball, he serves well, he takes on shots and has a big game mentality. He may be tempermental but so was Marat Safin. He is my kind of player and I would rather watch him any day than watch Juan Monaco. Novak must be delighted with this outcome - he will have a field day tomorrow. The only half consolation about this defeat is that this is literally the slowest surface in the world. Madrid, Rome, and even Roland Garros will be much quicker than this and that will suit Gulbis more. He still has a big season ahead of him so it's time to put this loss to the back of his mind and move on.

From a betting point of view, I can't and don't regret backing Gulbis. In tennis, you have to go with your gut and who you think will win a match. Don't be swayed by odds or popular opinion. If you are on the losing end like today, at least you went down sticking to your guns. I got Fognini over Ramos and Mayer over Bautista-Agut right today but they were only secondary thoughts aside from the Gulbis match.

In tomorrow's action, there are several matches I would have on upset alert, including Melzer v Tsonga, Fognini v Berdych, and maybe even Stan v Murray. There will be close matches, but my recommendation would be a small bet on Fabio Fognini at 4.60 on Betfair. This slow surface favours him and he has been playing great this week to be fair. Dimitrov should take out Mayer, Del Po will beat Nieminen, Gasquet will probably beat Cilic, and I think Murray will take out Stan in three. If you want another long shot go for Melzer at 4.5 as he is arguably more at home on this surface than big Jo. In general, keep bets small tomorro. It is not the best betting day in the world! Just like today! :)

Monte-Carlo rd 2 - Wednesday

Ernests Gulbis provided me with the biggest win of the day today in Monte Carlo. Once he found his feet against Isner he was far too good and never looked like losing. Isner played a lovely first set but I think once Gulbis settled down and cut out the UE's he really has Isner under control and actually finished the match with some pretty good numbers. Another recommeded bet from today was Grigor Dimitrov to beat Janko Tipsarevic which he did in relatively comfortable straights. Dimitrov was odds against and it just goes to show that the favourite doesn't always win. Stick to your gut feeling on who will win a match and don't be swayed too much by the odds.

Tomorrow, I have once again taken Gulbis as pretty much my only bet of the day. He takes on Juan Monaco in the last match on Princes and I have backed EG at 2.00 on Bet365. Since that time, he has moved in as far as 1.79 to 1.82 on the exchanges and will certainly start the match as favourite. He really has the bit between his teeth and even though Pico is an out and out dirtballer I still fancy Gulbis to level up their head to head at 2-2 tomorrow evening. Monaco's season up to Argentina's DC tie with France 10 days ago was nothing short of pathetic but he seems to have found some form since then. However, he did lose in the Houston SF to Isner and I think mentally he can definitely be found wanting when push somes to shove. When Pico drops the hand and has a little feel around sometimes he finds nothing there.... Take Gulbis at 1.9 to progress tomorrow.

In other matches Wednesday, I fancy Berdych, Rafa, Djokovic, and Murray, and then for the less obvious ones I would go for Raonic, Fognini, Almagro, Cilic, Wawrinka, and maybe Mayer over Bautista-Agut. The only one I would have a bet on there would be Fognini to take out Albert Ramos but my main recommendation for tomorrow is for Gulbis. Come on!

Monte Carlo Rolex Masters - Preview

The first line of this post is the most important - Rafa Nadal will win this tournament for the ninth successive time.

Nadal hasn't lost a match here since The Beatles were boys, since Ray Houghton was knocking in the goals for Big Jack, and since Mrs. Doyle was asking "will ya have a cup of tea?". It is not really conceivable that he will lose here, all the more so given the fact that Djokovic's participation is in serious doubt and that he has a couple of easy matches in the opening rounds to help him find his feet here on his favourite surface.
Nadal's first test will be the quarter final where he might drop about six games to baby Fed, before taking on Andy Murray in the semis and probably DelPo in the final.

Murray could have his work cut out just getting out of his quarter. He is a fantastic clay courter in my book and has all the attributes to be extremely successful on this surface. But he is also a notoriously slow starter on this surface and he will have difficult early tests against Monfils and then Almagro before facing the man from Manacor. Murray will be more ready to challenge by the time Roland Garros rolls around.

I am looking towards probably Berdych to come out of the second quarter, playing Gasquet for a spot in the final four. The winner of this will play the winner of quarter one in the semis, and that is where it gets interesting for me. Novak Djokovic will probably play some part in the tournament but I don't believe he is willing to jeopardise his entire clay court season for this one tournament. He is a resident of Monte Carlo and these are pretty much his home courts so I do expect him to play a round or two but I am thinking, does he really need to hustle his way through the draw on a dodgy ankle to take an early loss to Rafa Nadal and give him the momentum he craves in his journey towards Roland Garros in about a month's time? The answer is no. Djokovic needs to tank here after a round or two and prepare properly for Madrid and in particualr for Rome where he can certainly derail the Rafa & Toni express. That would be a more sensible approach and I think he does believe he can beat Rafa at the French. I believe that too but ultimately I don't see Djokovic hanging around here long enough to allow Nadal the chance to dent his belief and confidence on the court where Nadal has played the best tennis of his career.

In fact, the first quarter is by far the most competitive, containing Djokovic, Del Potro, Gulbis, Raonic, Isner, Monaco, and Dolgopolov! Shit be deep!! I know I have been accused of being Gulbis-mad but he can do some damage here too. He hasn't had to play any qualies here thanks to the likes of David Ferrer and Tommy Haas pulling out, and Federer not bothering, but he has been here practising on these courts for over a full week now as he was on Davis Cup duty for Latvia the weekend before last against Monaco in the Monte Carlo Country Club. He easily won his singles rubbers and will be a certain threat to his quarter. His route to the quarter final would be Isner, Monaco, and Djokovic before coming up against Del Potro. The rules of this blog state that I am allowed to dream and so I am enforcing that rule and looking at Gulbis taking out Nole in rd 3.

Some first and second round matches of note now. Take the player in bold to come through each match up below. I will do individual previews the night before each match if it is a recommended bet. Some of the main match ups for tomorrow are: Isner v Gulbis, Monaco v Klizan, Dolgopolov v Del Potro, Tipsarevic v Dimitrov, and Tsonga v Davydenko.

Isner has to be wrecked at this stage having won just 36 hours ago in Houston in the US Men's Clay Court Championships and then flying trans-Atlantic to Monaco with very little rest. Even if he was fully rested I would still take Gulbis here as he is a great match up against Isner. He beat him on grass in Wimbledon and returns big serves very well in general, something which Isner doesn't do. His movement also makes a mockery of Isner's. Take Gulbis at 1.55 here. Isner hasn't a hope.

Elsewhere, Gael Monfils is outstanding value at 1.62 to beat Albert Montanes tomorrow which is one I really fancy. He has taken a WC here and looked great in Texas last week. Gael needs matches under his belt and will be going all out here. Take Dimitrov at 2.15 to beat Janko Tipsarevic - this Serb is not so swell on clay and I think Dimitrov has the all court game on any surface to beat Tipsy. I have been impressed with baby Fed's form of late and fancy him to come through tomorrow.

Recommended bets tomorrow: Gulbis, Monfils, Dimitrov.

Enjoy the tennis.

PS, Rafa is free money @ 1.50 on the exchanges (Betfair)

Casablanca final MC rd 1

i will have a thorough preview of MC tomorrow but just for now take bellucci to beat kohlschreiber at even money with betfair in first rd and take anderson to beat robredo in GP Hassan final tomorrow at 1.86 also on betfair. this is not 2008

Houston & Casablanca

This week is a quiet one for me on the betting front. It is the first week of the proper clay court season and, as such, it is spent more in observation that backing anyone. I will get more involved next week when the players head to the beautiful Monte Carlo Country Club.

Having said that, I had Gael Monfils to beat Blake a few night's ago in Houston but then I lost on Pablo Andujar against Pablo Carreno-Busta in Casablanca so, all in all, it is just important to wait, be patient, and see who is playing well and adjusting to this surface.

Really quickly, looking at the draw for Houston - I think whoever wins tonight's clash between Monfils and Almagro will take the title there. It will more than likely be Almagro but I would love to see Monfils do it. Take the winner of that to win it out.

In Morocco at the Grand Prix Hassan III I think Stan Wawrinka is an overwhelming favourite and is a cert for the title. The standard is pretty deplorable here compared to the tournaments that we will see over the coming month or so. Wawrinka has never lost a match here at these courts and the only half danger to his title chances will be when he takes on his best friend on the tour Benoit Paire in the semi final. Paire doesn't have the tennis to beat Stan in normal circumstances but when best friends collide on court sometimes the tennis ability doens't come into it! Nonetheless, take Stan the man to lift the crown here again.

Final DC Update - Individual matches

So all the order of plays have been released and all the players named. I'm not really sure what the story is with Canada who have named Vasek Pospisil as their number 2 singles player - I still expect Jesse Levine to play in this one but for the moment Pospisil has the nod. Italy are almost 2/1 on the exchanges to win this tie and I still really think they will do it. Fognini really knows how to spring an upset and Seppi will cause lots of problems for Big Milos.

In other news, Kazakhstan will look to take a 2-0 lead into day two against the defending champions Czech Republic. They send out Mikhail Kukushkin first up to take on Jan Hajek (who the former Russian Kukushkin has a 2-0 head to head over), followed by another former Russian Andrei Golubev taking on Lukas Rosol. While clay might suit Hajek, I really don't think it will suit Rosol and I almost expect Kazakhstan to take a 2-0 lead tomorrow.

Gilles Simon replaces the injured Richard Gasquet for France in their quest to continue their winning streak over Argentina. If you fancy it, I think Tsonga is almost a cert to beat Carlos Berlocq at about 1.40 while France are priced at about 1.52 to win the tie, which I also think is a cert. Simon will beat Juan Monaco whose form has been horrific all year, and Tsonga will beat Berlocq. Llodra and Benneteau will win the doubles, and I think, if required, France can win both reverse singles too.

Finally, the USA got a terrible, pressure-laden draw against Serbia. Djokovic is up first both days and so, Isner and Querrey will both have to take on Victor Troicki in the knowledge that they must win to keep USA in the tie. I think Serbia have the edge still in this one.

Enjoy.

DC Update

Quick Davis Cup update:

Canada v Italy: it appears that Jesse Levine is indeed going to be drafted in for second singles player by the Canadians so it will be Raonic v Fognini and Levine v Seppi. Expect that to be one all after day one. In the doubles, Italy will either have to go with Fognini/Lorenzi or Fognini/Seppi as Simone Bolelli has had to fly home with a wrist injury. This probably plays into the Canadians hands' now, but even at 2-1 down in the tie, I think Fognini will beat Levine for sure and I think Seppi can take out Raonic under pressure! Still going for Italy, who are a shade of odds against.

USA v Serbia: This is being priced at pretty much even money for either team. I think Djokovic will win both his singles and the question remains - do you fancy Victor Troicki to take out either Isner or Querrey?? That will decide who progresses. I still think he might beat Querrey. The Bryans won't lose.

Kazakhstan v Czech Republic: Having recommended the Kazakhs at 2.50, this one is moving towards even money for the pair now as well. It has emerged that the Czechs are resting the recovering Radek Stepanek on day one so the singles line up is Kukushkin v Hajek and Golubev v Rosol. Both of those Kazakhs are unbeaten in Davis Cup on Kazakh soil so I think we could very well see Kazakhstan up 2-0 after day one. I am even stronger on Kazakhstan to win this tie now and would advise you to take the odds against still available on Betfair.

Davis Cup World Group QFs

This weekend sees the Davis Cup enter a very exciting phase with the four quarter final ties taking place all over the world. There is probably potential for upsets in all of them, but I will go through each and outline my selections. Note that betting is not yet available on the ties but should be forthcoming within a day or two. Individual match betting will not be up until probably Thursday.

Argentina v France: In this tie, I cannot see past a French win on the red clay of Argentina. The South Americans are without their talisman Juan Martin del Potro, and, as such, they have little chance in my book. The French bring too much talent and flair for the likes of Juan Monaco and Carlos Berlocq to handle. Richard Gasquet and Jo Wilfried Tsonga will beat anyone Argentina throw at them, be it Nalbandian, Berlocq, or the out-of-form Monaco, and, in the doubles, Llodra and Benneteau are too good a pair to lose to any Argentinian combination. I expect France to be very heavy favourites for this one when the odds come out and I think maybe a 4-1 or 5-0 score to France. Expect France to be about 1/3 or 1/4 to win the tie.

Canada v Italy: These are unchartered waters for the Canadians, but they are not without hope. I think Italy will win the tie, but it could be very close. I still think Canada might bring in Jesse Levine for his debut in the red and white at the expense of Dancevic or Pospisil but either way, I think the Italians have too much. Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini will play the singles rubbers for the Italians and both are very capable players. Seppi, in particular is in good form and he is a very hard player to beat. Raonic will be favourite to win both of his singles rubbers but he could lose them just as easily in my book, particularly the Seppi match. Even giving the Candians both points for Raonic, I still can't see them winning the tie. Fognini and Seppi will beat any of the other Canadians and so it comes down to the doubles. I think it will be Nestor/Pospisil v Bollelli/Fognini who are actually a touring pair and so, I give Italy the nod here, probably on a 3-2 scoreline.

USA v Serbia: This is another tie which could easily go either way. The Americans have brought it to Boise, Idaho, to altitude with the hope that the thin air and home crowd will suit their big serving giants John Isner and Sam Querrey. Neither of these guys are going to give Djokovic trouble, but then it gets interesting as both of them are easily capable of beating Victor Troicki. Troicki has fallen a long way since his glorious decisive rubber victory over Mika Llodra to win the Davis Cup in 2011. Nowadays he is somewhat of a tour journeyman and I think he will probably lose both of his singles rubbers here. For some reason, Janko Tipsarevic is not playing Davis Cup this year and if he was, Serbia would be nailed on for the win here. As it stands, the Bryan Bros will take the doubles for the States and so, they only need Isner and Querrey both to beat Troicki to take the tie. Somehow, I am still siding with the Serbs in this one, with the assumption that just maybe Querrey will continue his horrible form and he loses to Troicki, but this one will be a 3-2 scoreline either way. I just about give it to Serbia.

Kazakhstan v Czech Republic: This tie represents the best betting value for me as the home side are already trading at about 6/4 which represents significant value as I think they will get the win. If Tomas Berdych was available for the Czechs I wouldn't even be considering an upset here, but the fact that he has pulled out makes the Czechs very vulnerable in my opinion and I think ultimately they will lose their title here on the indoor clay courts of The Kazakh National Tennis Centre in Astana. Kazakhstan are a very dangerous team at home and Andrei Golubev has an outstanding record in Astana. They also have Mikhail Kukushkin who beat Monfils at the Australian Open a few years ago as some of you will remember. He is a far better player than his ranking suggests, but is on the comeback trail after 2012 surgery. Evgeny Korolev and Juriy Schukin complete the Kazakh quartet. Filling in for Tomas Berdych will be Lukas Rosol. Rosol can be very wild and very tempermental  and I think he will probably lose both of his singles rubbers here. I also think Radek Stepanek will lose one of his rubbers too, probably to Golubev, as the veteran Czech does not enjoy this surface and has not been playing recently due to injury. In the doubles, the Czechs will also struggle due to their over-reliance on Berdych, and they will be vulneralbe here too, no matter who they decide to pair with Stepanek. Take the Kazakhs to win this one, maybe 4-1. They are currently 2.50 on Betfair but I son't expect that to last long. Snap it up!

I will do another post before Fridays' matches.