Monday in Barcelona was a mixed bag. We had five of seven winners correct, but, unfortunately, Grega Zemlja was one of the casualties, losing out to Pablo Andujar 7-6 6-7 2-6 in a match he probably should have won. Anyway, it has been a very good week and tomorrow is another opportunity to get back on the horse.
There are a few matches tomorrow where I would be pretty confident, but maybe only one or two where I would recommend a bet. Ernests Gulbis, my favourite player by a long way these days, will take out Fernando Verdasco, that's for sure. But he is 2/5 to do so and that is just too short, even against a complete clown like Verdasco. It is on clay afterall, in Spain, so 2/5 is no value for me. I believe that one is best to be avoided, even though I have fully sure Ernests will overturn his 0-2 head to head record against 'Hot Sauce' Tobasco. Where I do fancy a bet however, is for Thomaz Bellucci to overcome the home favourite Pablo Carreno-Busta @ 1.82 on the exchanges. I have watched Carreno-Busta in action against Andujar in Casablanca and thought he was quite useful on this surface. He beat Robin Haase today in Barcelona as we said he would in a third set breaker, but, he is still only a young chap learning his trade. Bellucci has been around the block a long time now, and, even though I see hard courts as his best surface, he grew up on the clay and fancies himself as a bit of a specialist dirtballer. If Bellucci shows up and plays anything resembling his A game this will be no contest. In reality, I imagine it could go three sets but I would still fancy Bellucci to win it and will recommend him @ 1.82.
Unfortunately, Fabio Fognini pulled out of Bucharest and has been replaced by lucky loser Filippo Volandri. Fognini had been due to play Le Monf tomorrow and I was sure Monfils would do a job on him but Fognini has decided Monte-Carlo took too much out of him! It is always a good time to back a player like Fognini in the first round of a tournament following such a successful week but on this occasion we won't get that chance.
Elswhere tomorrow, I think Falla should beat Kavcic @ 1.86 and Hajek should beat Roger-Vasselin @ 2.10 but I am not going to offer those as recommendations and haven't backed them myself. At the moment, Bellucci will be the only bet for tomorrow and he is my recommendation to beat Pablo Carreno-Busta in Barcelona @ 1.82. Enjoy.
No comments:
Post a Comment