Australian Open Day 8

Another mixed day yesterday with Wawrinka and Ivanovic good results but Anderson and Fognini not even close to covering their handicaps. Gonna stick with it until the end of the tournament despite the bad run!

Dimitrov v Bautista-Agut: Dimitrov is a fantastic price here at 6/11 with Boyles and 4/7 general. I think he's about a 1/3 shot and I think he's almost certianly going to win. I think there is a gulf in class here and I think Dimitrov, playing with the confidence he now has, will expose Bautista-Agut for the pusher that he is. 5 points maximum bet on Dimitrov. 

Tsonga v Federer: This is the best bet of the tournament for me so far. Tsonga had Federer's number these days. I'm convinced of it. He was able to beat Federer back in Federer's peak years, so I think given Federer's decline and Tsonga's run of form and love for this tournament, I think 7/5 is an outstanding price and I'm very confident Tsonga will beat Federer here. Having 5points maximum bet on Big Jo

Stephens v Azarenka: I think Stephens is not without her chance here. She has been playing very well and the Aussie Open is her best slam having made the semis here last year. I like her to get a set here @ 7/4 and will have 2 points on that with a further point on Azarenka to win 2-1 @ 7/2 

Jankovic v Halep: Going for 2 pt win on Jankovic here @ 5/4. I see it as pretty much a pickem match with Halep the up and comer and Jankovic the established name who seems in decent form herself. 5/4 seems to be good value for a small bet.

Radwanska v Muguruza: I'm going for Radwanska here who I think is over-priced @ 1/2. She's number 4 in the world and should beat Muguruza for sure. Muguruza is going to be a good player in the years to come but this one comes a bit soon for her. 5 pts Radwanska @ 1/2

Over and out

Australian Open Day 7

Day 6 was a washout, mainly down to Paire acting the the clown against Agut and then Monfils not showing up against Rafa at all. Dimitrov beat Raonic like I said and Nishikori got the 3-0 win over Young.

Here are Sundays picks:

Fognini v Djokovic: I think Fognini is too good a player not to beat the 9.5 games handicap against Nole. I'm going for two pts on that at 8/11. The Italian to get a set at 3/1 appeals to me too and I will have a pt on that. Fognini won't beat Nole but I think he can live with him off the ground.

Berdych v Anderson: I think berdych is too good for Anderson but I think the +6.5 games at 5/6 that Bwin are offering seems a decent bet. They have had tight matches in the past. 2pts

Wawrinka v Robredo: 5pts on Stan here at 2/5. Can't see him losing to Robredo in his favourite slam and in this form.

Kerber v Pennetta: I am going for 4pts on Kerber here to beat Pennetta at 1/2. Better player for me but could be a close one.

Williams v Ivanovic: taking Ana here plus 6.5 games at 10/11 for 5pts. Her flat ball and good serve will help her overcome this handicap which I thought would be one game lower.

Over and out. It's going to be a good day.

Australian Open Day 6

Day 5 was just a break even day unfortunately with Fognini beating Querrey and the max bet on Kerber coming in easily at 1/3. Istomin gave us a run for our money in the third set but that was always a bit of a gamble and finally Stosur lost from a set up so all in all about level for the day. I've just done a quick tally and we are plus three points profit for the tournament which is not great by any means but still profit none the less. I am always confident of better profits in the second week of a slam too so stick with it:

Saturday is a bumper day. Here are the picks:

Gabashvili v Federer: Gabashvili +9.5 @ 4/5 looks a nice bit of value here. He has taken out an in-form Stakhovsky and Fernando Verdasco so far and can be dangerous. He is a very big hitter if somewhat erratic too. I expect Federer to win, probably even in straight sets, but I expect it to be closer than 3,3,& 3 and so will have 2pts on Gabashvili +9.5 games. Go with a bookie who voids out all bets in case Gabashvili retires. He had the trainer out twice against Verdasco.

Paire v Bautista-Agut: this is a match I have a strong opinion on. I think Paire, despite the head to head between the players, should be a favourite here. If this match was on clay I'd understand but to me Bautista-Agut is a nothing player. I think what's happened here is that the armchair punter, sitting at home watching the tennis on TV who doesn't watch it from one end of the year to the other has seen him beat an under-par Delpo and thinks he's a world-beater. Let me tell you he's not. My initial price here was about 1.5 Paire. I don't read too much into the head to head in this instance. Benoit Paire can be a type to throw a match very easily once he loses interest. I'm confident that won't happen in a slam. Paire came from 2 sets down to defeat Kyrgios last round. If he serves as he can, then I give him a terrific chance here My only worry with Paire is his forehand. Everything else is world class - serve, volley, backhand. His backhand is actually in the top two or three on tour. It's that good. 9/5 is a ridiculous price and I'm going a full 5pts max bet on it. I'm not saying he's a certainty because he's not but I am saying I think the price is wrong and I think it's excellent value. 5 pts Paire @ 9/5

Raonic v Dimitrov: Going to take a chance on Dimitrov here at 5/4 to win this one. Leads the head to head 2-1 and looks to be in good form. Very impressive win over Lu in straight sets last round and can beat Raonic for sure. He can hold serve pretty comfortably against Raonic whose returns are among the worst in tennis and I think Dimitrov's passing shots when the giant comes in to the net could be a key to this match. 2pts Dimitrov @ 5/4

Murray v Lopez: Murray leads the head to head 7-0 here but when the draw came out I immediately saw this as a potential banana skin. Look at their last meeting in the US Open in 2012 when Murray won. It was extremely close, 7-6 7-6 4-6 7-6 to the Scot. He was playing a lot better then than he is now. Lopez, like Murray is yet to drop a set. I expect Murray to win but I will have 1pt on Lopez @ 6/1 general. I will also go for 3pts on Lopez to win a set @ 5/4 and a further 2 pts on Lopez +6.5 games @ 4/5. Big match

Young v Nishikori: Nishikori to win 3-0 @ 20/21 is my pick here. I think Young is brutal and can't believe he has gotten this far. Just 1 pt.

Nadal v Monfils: 2 pts on Monfils here to win a set @ 6/5. I expect Nadal to win but I also expect a close match. Monfils can be so dangerous and Nadal will need to play close to his best tennis.

No womens bets tonight for me but one more for the men's draw. Tsonga is still 9/2 to win Q2 with Ladbrokes and I think it's enormous. He hasn't dropped a set yet and looked great in his last round against Bellucci. Ominous threat to Federer and Murray. The price seems big to me. 2pts on that

Follow on twitter @tennis_backer and come back tomorrow for Sunday's picks.

Over and out :) 

Australian Open Day 5

A Much better day yesterday with all 5 selections coming in for about 6 points profit.

Here are Friday's thoughts:

Fognini v Querrey: a small bet here on Fognini who looks to be hitting it pretty well. He is a better player than Querrey for sure but a lot depends on how Querrey serves. 1pt on Fognini @ 8/5

Djokovic v Istomin: Going to take a chance on Istomin here and go with the Kazakh to win a set @ 3/1 with Ladbrokes (11/4 general) 1pt

Kerber v Riske: Going with a mximum play on Kerber @ 1/3 which I think is too big. Riske has never impressed me and I'll take the German for 5pts @ 1/3

Stosur v Ivanovic: Going with the home hope here, Sam Stosur to beat Ana Ivanovic, 3pts @ 5/4. Stosur looks in great shape and I have a feeling she might well go deep here and cause a few surprises. Stosur 3pts

Talk tomorrow!

Australian Open Day 4

I have to acknowledge what a brutal day yesterday was. The only winner I went for was Fognini who easily beat Nieminen. Of the other losers, the only one I regret tipping up is Benneteau. In hindsight, Robredo over 5 sets is hard to beat and Benneteau is probably not one to rely on. I still maintain Bencic had a great chance, it's just a pity she took 6 full games before she got into the match. Twice she was up a break in that second set and also had chances in the breaker. And finally, the Istomin match. The head to head going in was 3-0 Tursunov. Tursunov beat him in straight sets last week, and there was 4/5 to be had. Hard to argue with.

Anyway, that's the post mortem out of the way, and, looking ahead to Day 4, I feel there is very little worth betting on so I don't have too many recommendations:

Berrer v Lopez: Lopez looks a certainty here albeit at the prohibitive price of 1/3. Berrer really is pretty useless and Lopez does everything better than him. 1/6 shot for me. 5pts Lopez

Rola v Klizan: I think Klizan is just about worth a bet at 8/13 and has way more experience on this stage than Blaz Rola who, it has to be said, is in nice shape himself. I'll have Klizan for the win for just 1pt @ 8/13 general

Lu v Dimitrov: I think this is the exact kind of match Dimitrov might have lost a year ago or so, but I think with Roger Rasheed at the helm he will get it done tonight and 8/15 is a nice price. Dimitrov has matured a bit and he has everything. He serves way better than Lu but will have to be on his game to beat the Auckland runner-up who is in good from himself. I'll take Dimitrov for 2pts @ 8/15

Paire v Kyrgios: I am going to take Paire here @ 2/5 just because I think this match comes a year or two too soon for Kyrgios, another young Aussie hope with a bright future. If Paire serves like he should he will be ok. 2 points Paire

Voegele v Cibulkova: I will take Cibulkova here @ 8/15 - thought she would be a bit shorter and her form looks good too. Better player than Voegele. 2pts.

Hope things go a bit better than yesterday

Over and out!

Australian Open Day 3

As promised earlier, just back on to add a bit of meat to the bones of my predictions so to speak!

Very rushed blog on my phone for now until I flush it out a bit later on.

Tursunov v Istomin: Tursunov looks in very decent shape. Both hit the ball big, both serve well and move well. I actually think Istomin hits a nicer cleaner ball than the Russian but Tursunov seems to have it upstairs while Denis The Menace can be found wanting in that department sometimes, when it gets to squeaky bum time. That's the main reason I'm plumping for Tursunov here. That and the fact he beat him last week. Tursunov 3pts @ 4/5 

Benneteau v Robredo: I like the Frenchman here. All is not right with Robredo still. He didnt play any warm up tournaments and only got through to round two by virtue of a Czech Choke in the shape of Lukas Rosol who somehow found a way to lose in the fifth serving for the match at 40-15 up. Benneteau went 5 sets with Carreno-Busta but PCB is under-rated to me and I still like Benneteau here. 2pts Evs

Fognini v Nieminen: Fognini is a much better player than Nieminen. Neither guy is on top form or even close, hence the fact it is only a one point play. I'm encouraged by the fact that FF was two easy sets up on Bogomolov by the time the Russian cum Yank cum Russian retired in round one. Nieminen required 5 sets to best Dudi Sela. Thats speaks enough for me. Fognini 1pt 4/5 

Kumkhum  v Barthel: Purely a bit of a speculative one here. No strong opinion on either player. I certainly wouldn't be afraid to oppose Barthel by any means and if Kumkhum can take out Petra Kvitova, then I think 13/8 to take out Barthel sounds pretty good to me. Kumkhum 1pt 13/8

Li v Bencic: I really like the young Swiss here and I am going with a 2 point play on the +6.5 games @11/10. She will need to serve well which is not her best asset by any means but here general all-court game and return should give her a chance. I also think she will like the pace that Na Li is bound to provide. Also going with 1pt @ 6/1 Na Li to win 2-1

Follow me on Twitter @tennis_backer

Come back tomorrow for Day 4 picks.

Until then, Cheers!

Australian Open Day 2

Day 1 was decent if not spectacular with plus 4 points the return. Cutting straight to the chase, here are day 2 picks:

Mens:

Kyrgios v Becker: I am going to take a bit of a chance on the young Aussie who is by all accounts a star in the making here. Becker's form has been very poor recently while Kyrgios pushed Verdasco to a final set tie break in Kooyong last week and will have the Aussie support firmly in his corner. With the heat as strong as it is Down Under, I will be favouring the Aussies in  matches like this where any advantage could swing the issue. Take Kyrgios at 10/11. 1pt Kyrgios

Seppi v Hewitt: There a few bets I will recommend in this one. The head to head is tied at 3-3 and I reckon Seppi is a bit under-rated at the moment while Hewitt is possibly a little over-rated after his win over Federer in Brisbane. First of all I like Seppi +6.5 games @ 8/11 for 2pts. I will also have 1pt on this one going the full 5 sets at 7/2 with Hills and a small 1pt bet on Hewitt to win 3-2 @ 6/1 with Stan James. Despite Seppi's seemingly poor form, this is a slam, he's 20 odd spots ahead of Hewitt in the rankings, and all the pressure is on Hewitt for this one. No pressure on Seppi.

Kamke v Sock: 2 points win on Kamke here @ 8/11. I thought Kamke was excellent in Doha and I thought Sock was pathetic in Auckland in his match against Bautista Agut. The 5 set format doesn't suit Sock in my opinion and I'm happy to oppose him here.

Murray v Soeda: I like Soeda with +9.5 games handicap here @ even money with 365. Soeda is a decent player and Murray is not the Murray of last year just yet. 2pts play.

Nadal v Tomic: While I think Nadal will win the match, I cannot possibly see why Tomic is a 12/1 shot. He is a superb shotmaker and can be so so dangerous, especially at home in Australia. Nadal got the worst possible draw he could have gotten and there a few bets I like here. I will have 1pt on Tomic to win @ 12/1. I will have 5 points, a max bet, on Tomic +8.5 games @ 8/13 with Bet365, and I will also have 3 points on Tomic to win a set @ 6/4 with either Ladbrokes or Skybet. Potentially a week-changing match here tipping wise! Tomic needs to serve big and remain agressive. I am confident he will do both.

Womens:

Pereira v Pavlyuchenkova: I will have 1 pt win on Pereira here @ 7/2 purely since her opponent is still not fully recovered from injury. Make sure to back it with a bookies who honours bets after one set has been played or even better, after one ball has been struck. 1pt


Come back tomorrow for Wednesday's picks! Follow on Twitter @tennis_backer

Over and out!

Australian Open Day 1

I'm full of the usual excitement that comes before the first day of a grand slam. The Aussie Open is probably my favourite slam, even if the matches all take place when I should be in bed! I'm going to put up my match picks each day with a little insight as to why I'm recommending that selection. I will tend to focus more on the men than the women and will work on a points basis for the fortnight, with stakes between one point and five points, just so we can measure the stakes and profits. It's also important not to over-do it in terms of making a pick in 20 matches per day. Anyone can pick who they think will win a match but the whole point of this thing is to pick a match where there is a bit of value to be had in the price. I'll keep a track of my picks and we can see how it went at the end of the two weeks. Day one doesn't look too appealing in general, and in Slams the money is usally made from round two or three onwards. Anyway, here goes:

Mens:

Falla v Kukushkin: Falla can be had here at 5/6 and is on a 5 match win streak having won the Noumea Challenger in the first week of January. Kukushkin, on the other hand, is coming off straight set first round defeats in Brisbane and Sydney at hands of Lopez and Struff. Both are dangerous players when they are their game. It appears at the moment that Falls is on his and Kukushkin is not. 1pt Falla

Karlovic v Dodig: This looks to be a toss up and I always like a toss up where you can have 6/4 on one of the sides! Karlovic won their only other Grand Slam encounter, here in 2011 and beat Berdych in Doha while Dodig doesn't look in terrific form. Take Dr. Ivo at 6/4. 1pt Karlovic

Haas v Garcia-Lopez: I like the 8/15 on Tommy Haas here which seems on the big side to me. I wouldn't be overly concerned about the loss to Sock in Auckland. I never read too much into tournament results the week before a Slam so I'm pretty confident he will get the job done here. He is a far better player and a different class to GGL. 2pts Haas

Ramos v Andujar: These guys tend to only meet each other on clay but Andujar won their only hard court encounter in 2012 and at 9/5 certainly looks a tad big in what I'd see as a pick'em match. I like neither player in general and usually avoid their matches. Expect plenty of service breaks and possibly the full five sets too. 1pt Andujar

Lacko v Djokovic: Lacko is wild but he is also very capable and I think the +11.5 head start given by Ladbrokes is a tad generous, even at 8/11. Take that.1pt play

Berankis v Dolgopolov: Dolgopolov is 2/5 here and that looks big to me. He's a different class to Berankis and as long as he gives 100% he'll win this match. 2pts Dolgopolov

Womens:

Bencic v Date-Krumm: I really like Bencic here at 8/13. She plays Date-Krumm, a player 27 years her senior, and Bencic is a player with a very very exciting future. I reckon she's a future slam champion and Date-Krumm is really a nothing player who I hate to watch and really should hang up the racket in my opinion! 3pts Bencic

Watson v Hantuchova: I will take Heather Watson here, who came through qualifying impressively ahead of Hantuchova who is cominf off back to back first round losses. I think Watson has far more potential than Hantuchova who is long past her best and I'll take the 8/11 here. 2pts Watson

Van Uytvanck v Razzano: Razzano is a clay courter who is past her best and in horrible form. I will take the young Belgian to beat her at 4/6 here which seems a decent price to me. 1pt Van Uytvanck

Stosur v Zakopalova: Zakopalova beat Stosur in Hobart last week but it means nothing for me here. I think Stosur will be up for this one and I'm not overly impressed with Zakopalova either. 8/15 looks a nice price on Stosur to win. 3pts Stosur

Come back tomorrow for Tuesday's picks. Over and out :)

Sydney Final and Australian Open Preview and Picks

Two out of two yesterday with Tomic and Isner both obliging. Tomic, a 20/1 outright bet at the start of the week is in the final tomorrow against Del Potro and I give him a decent shot despite being a 3/1 shot with the oddsmakers. Stakhovsky played an exceptional standard of tennis today and yet Tomic found a way. I think he will be so pumped tomorrow to retain his title and perhaps, just maybe, there will be a small part of Delpo with an eye on next week and maybe wanting to give the Aussie crowd what they want. No recommended bet for either final. Just plenty of crossed fingers for Tomic.

Australian Open 2014 Preview:

The draw has been extremely kind to a select few, and has been horrible to quite a number. Rafa Nadal, for one  can count himself as the most unlucky top seed of recent memory with Tomic, Sijsling, Monfils, Nishikori, Del Potro, Tsonga, and Djokovic his likely route to a now almost impossible title challenge. Djokovic has been handed a beautiful draw with Stan the Man his main threat in what I hope will be a repeat of my favourite tennis match of 2013. Let's take a look at the draw and then some ante-post bets. Tomorrow we will look at some match bets. Here goes:

Q1:

As above, Nadal has angered the Australian tennis Gods somehow and they have sent their prodigal son to thwart him in the very first round. It's not beyond comprehension that Tomic can take Nadal out in round one. I've watch all Bernie's games this week and he's been top notch. If he beats Delpo in the morning, expect his price for the Rafa match to get down somewhere more realistic like 4/1 as opposed to the ridiculous 13/2 that now stands. Nadal dropped sets to Kamke and Gojowczyk in Doha last week and Tomic is quite a different standard to those guys. I expect fireworks in what is the best first round match of the draw. This quarter is by far the toughest and nobody here can be happy. I expect Nadal to make it out but any one of Delpo, Monfils, Tomic, Nishikori, Raonic, or the young up-and-coming Hewitt are all capable of beating him on their day.

Q2: 

Quarter 2 has some very decent seeds in it but not quite the depth of quarter 1. Murray, Tsonga and Federer are all housed here, along with the likes of Isner, Verdasco, Cilic, Kohlschreiber, and Feliciano Lopez. Of all these guys, I think Tsonga is by far the most impressive at the moment. I think there is no chance Murray comes through this quarter. His form is just not there and I think he goes out in the first week. Federer is not the same man he used to be and Tsonga could have crushed him at any moment in their exhibition last week when he gifted Federer a 7-5 win in the final set. Big Jo to make a big run this year down under.

Q3:

This is the quarter you want to be if you want to go on a run to the semi finals. The main two guys are Ferrer and Berdych, with Haas, Youzhny, Dolgopolov, and Janowicz the only other contenders. One of those six guys will be in the semis. Berdych is probably best-placed to do so given Ferrer's form at the moment and the fact that he hits the best ball of all these guys. Janowicz is not in form either so I think Haas or Youzhny have a great opportunity, particularly the latter if he can pull it together like he did at the US Open. I for one would love to see the General go on another run and I hope he's over his stomach virus that forced him out of Chennai.

Q4:

The bottom quarter has Nole and Stan. Nobody else. Stan can start preparing for his QF right now as far as I'm concerned. I don't really think he can beat Nole here over five sets, simply because I don't think he can possibly play any better than he did here last year when it still wasn't enough. Nole will come through but I guess sport is sport and anything can happen so that's why we watch it.


Possible SF 1: Nadal v Tsonga
Possible SF 2: Berdych v Djokovic

Possible Final: Tsonga v Djokovic

Winner: Djokovic

Antepost recommendations:

Outright 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 75.00 Betfair and 50/1 e/w (Boyles) 1/2 1,2

Marin Cilic 610 (Betfair)

Tommy Haas 600 (Betfair)

Mikhail Youzhny 1000 (Betfair) 

Quarter Betting

Tsonga to win quarter 2 @ 4/1 (Corals)

Youzhny to win quarter 3 @ 16/1 (Corals)

Other

Andy Murray stage of elimination round 3 (Feliciano Lopez) @ 10/1 (Corals)

Roger Federer stage of elimination round 3 (Sergiy Stakhovsky or Fernando Verdasco) @ 8/1 (Corals)

I will add more bets and prices as they become available. Pretty much all of the ante-post bets apart from the outrights should be available at better prices in the coming few days as more and more bookies price it up and join the market. Don't forget to follow on Twitter  @tennis_backer for daily bets and updates.

Over and out!

 

Sydney and Auckland semi finals

Bad day Thursday with the only real highlight being Tomic's destruction of Dolgopolov and real march towards defending his title. I was hoping Stepanek might even take out Delpo but stretching him to 3 sets was the best he could do. Del Potro looks to be the only obstacle now between Tomic and a nice payout at 20/1. I can't possibly see Stakhovsky beating Tomic, despite the Ukrainian's great run of form. This was 4/9 earlier today which seemed enormous to me. The 2/5 still available is also plenty big and this is more a 1/4 shot in my opinion. Tomic was immense at times today, top 5 standard. His serve is a weapon. His ground strokes are massive, and he has the panache and confidence to do well in the game. Elsewhere Thursday, Kohlschreiber lost to Isner 7-6 6-7 6-7 without dropping or breaking serve. I hate backing against Isner but even by his serving standards, to serve 80% first serve is out-of-your-mind serving.

Friday's picks:

I will be hoping Tursunov can do a job on Delpo, albeit it is only a small glimmer of hope. Tomic is a recommendation for a decent stake at 2/5 to beat Stakhovsky. The pair met once before and Tomic won that in straights. He's after a title defence here and I think he will get the job done in straights with hopefully a few Stakhovsky errors allowing for a few chances on his delivery. Tomic will need to serve well again.

In Auckland, I expect a win for Ferrer over Lu, a player I really like, while I think the 4/9 on Isner to beat Bautista-Agut is far too big as well and definitely worth backing.

Thursday Sydney and Auckland

Decent day yesterday, the draw opening up perfectly for Tomic and Kohlschreiber. Here are Thursday's picks:

Sydney:

Istomin v Tursunov: I think Istomin is a good price at 1.9 and I think he is a more reliable player than Tursunov. I do admit to having a soft spot for the Uzbek but I think he will come through here.

Tomic v Dolgopolov: I know Dolgopolov has a 5-1 head to head in his favour here but none-the-less I think the Aussie crowd and the title defence will get Tomic over the line. Dolgopolov is in good form but I think Tomic is going to get it done.

Matosevic v Stakhovsky: Matosevic will get through here at 1.9. Decent price, good form, Aussie crowd.

Auckland:

Kohlschreiber v Isner: Kohlschreiber was available at even money earlier on which I thought was staggering. He is now 4/5 which is still a backable price. Isner dropped a set to Lacko last night and is nursing an ankle injury. Kohlschreiber to progress.

Lu v Johnson: Lu is over-priced here @ 4/6. He's a better player than Johnson and a 1/2 shot in my opinion.

Bautista-Agut v Sock: I think Sock is a better player on a hard-court than Bautista-Agut who is a nothing player according to Gulbis! Sock is 2.2 here on Betfair and would be more like 1.8 if I was to price it.

Over and out.

Wednesday's Tennis Jan 8th 2014

Tuesday was a mediocre day at best with 2 wins and two smaller losses but in bad matches which, in hindsight, I should have avoided. Here are my thoughts on Wednesday's tennis:

ATP Apia Sydney International:

I was impressed with the scoreline and apparent ease at which Tomic defeated Granollers in round one. Looking good for the outright tip after round one in what I hope will be a successful title defence. Even better was the fact that Blaz Kavcic is his second round opponent and not Jarrko Nieminen who has done very well in Sydney in recent years. I saw some people tipping up Nieminen outright this week and I had to question that. Even though he has a good record here, he's not the same player as he was before while someone like Tomic has a lot to prove and is still very much on an upward curve. Anyway, some matches which appeal to me here Wednesday are Matosevic @ 10/11 to beat Seppi. Matosevic had a good win here over Florian Mayer yesterday and the fact the home crowd will be with him give me reason to believe he might just get the better of Seppi who looks to be a little behind where I'd expect him to be. Two other bets I like are Dolgopolov to beat Janowicz @ 1.9 on Betfair and I think a small stakes bet on Mahut to beat DelPo at 7.0 on Betfair could be a shrewd bit of business. And I still think Tomic is excellent outright value @ 8/1 general

ATP Heineken Open Auckland:

Benoit Paire is a fantastic price @ 7/10 to beat Bautista-Agut in New Zealand. He's a much better player and especially so on hardcourt and I would be much shorter here on Paire, like 4/9 ish. Lukas Lacko is a lovely price to beat Isner at 2/1. Isner always struggles to return and Lacko is a fantastic server who has come through qualifying here with ease. Isner is on his way back from an ankle injury and is still not right so don't expect 2/1 to last on Lacko. Again, I still think 8/1 here represents great value on Phillip Kohlschreiber

WTA:

I think Madison Keys is a nice bet @ 11/10 to beat Mattek-Sands, who is a player I don't like too much! Keys has much more to her game, is on the way up in women's tennis and has a winning record against her war-painted opponent. I'm pretty confident Radwanska wanted to get an early plane to Melbourne today so Sands is not playing as well as people think. One more bet I like is 5/1 outright for Vesnina to win Hobart outright.

Until tomorrow...

Sydney, and Auckland

Yesterday's bets still stand so take Paire to win and Kohlschreiber to win 2-0.

A few more thoughts for Tuesday's matches:

Bautista Agut v Gimeno-Traver:

Gimeno-Traver is 2/1 here with two qualifying wins under his belt here, used to playing in these windy conditions against a player who is not that much better than him. Worth a punt

Delbonis v Young:

Young has a few matches under his belt but he's not as good a player as Delbonis, who, despite being in the world's top 60 is still something of an enigma! He looks a good player, although clay is more his home. He's not a 5/2 shot so definitely worth a bet at those odds.

Talk tomorrow!

Sydney and Auckland Previews and Picks

A big week ahead in the sunshine of the southern hempisphere this week as we have a 250 in Sydney and a 250 in Auckland. Both tournaments have very strong stand-out favourites, (neither of which I will be backing), and give us a chance to see who is in form and who is not ahead of the year's first grand slam which begins one week from today in Melbourne. I always think that the week before a slam is a nothing week to most of the top players who are more focussed on the slam the following week so look for a few outsiders to shine this week and perhaps a few big surprises along the way.

ATP Sydney Preview:

Juan Martin Del Potro is the top seed and favourite at the Apia Sydney International. He enters the tournament after long break since the WTF in November. Delpo starts as an 11/10 favourite which seems a tad short for me given the intense climate the and fact that this is the week before a slam. His draw is far from easy with Cilic the main danger in the top half. Bernard Tomic is the dark horse for me. He comes in to the tournament trying to defend the only title he has ever won. He showed some decent from at the Hopman Cup last week and has made no secret that he is here to win the title again. He reckons that his main advantage (apart from the home support) is that he has been in Australia for the last few months whereas most of his competitors are only here a matter of days. That could be a huge advantage. He went up 20/1 initially and has already been backed into 12/1 best price but that's still good enough to recommend. His route to the title would likely be Granollers, Nieminen, Dolgopolov, and Benneteau with a possible final against Cilic or Del Potro. Of those along the way to the final, Dolgopolov worries me the most so I would be hoping Janowicz could take him out! Nobady can argue that Tomic has the most motivation this week and that's what made me back him.

ATP Auckland Preview:

David Ferrer is the king of Auckland. He has bucketloads of titles here, and unlike the other top guys, he seems to give it his all in the week before the slams. I guess he realises he has no genuine chance to win the slams and so wants to try to pick up all the titles he can. When the intial odds went up here, I could not for one second go along with the notion that Ferrer was an even money chance here. No way. Now that Gael Monfils has pulled out, I think he has a much better chance, but there are still 5 guys or maybe more in this draw who can beat Ferrer and so I still wouldn't back him at 11/10. Ferrer's draw in not actually too bad but he was hammered by Brands last week in Doha and I think any of Brands, Baghdatis, Kohlschreiber, Isner, or Haas could beat him here. Of those, my pick for a bet would be Phillip Kohlschreiber @ 9/1. He was a finalist here last year and won the title here in 2008 and has a relatively nice draw given he is in Isner's quarter and the big man is just back from an ankle injury. If you want a bigger outsider, take Baghdatis @ 66/1

Monday's picks:

Paire to beat Przysiezny (Auckland): Paire loves it around here. He said during the week that this is one of his favourite stops on tour. He is playing another big server in Przysiezny and tends to do well against big servers. I like the Frenchman at 4/7. It's a 4/11 shot for me

Kohlschreiber to beat Carreno-Busta (Auckland): Kohlschreiber is 1/4 to win this but its more like 1/7 to me so it seems a safe bet. The 2-0 set betting looks good too

Saturday Jan 4th 2014

Nishikori v Hewitt:

Nishikori is too big at 8/13 to beat Hewitt in my opinion. He was fantastic against Cilic last night and Hewitt, despite playing in his homeland, is not a match for him. 2/5 shot for me

Granollers v Roger-Vasselin:

I can't believe Granollers can be had at odds-against here. He's a better player than ERV to me and I think more like a 4/7 shot here in the Chennai semis.

Nadal v Monfils:

I tipped up Monfils before the QF @ 11/2, before the semis @ 7/2 and now again before the final @ 2/1 to beat Nadal. I'm very confident of this and pretty sure he will beat him. Nadal has been pretty poor all week and Monfils has been better than I've ever seen him. The pair have met twice in Doha before and Monfils won both. He loves it around here. Max bet

Friday Jan 3rd 2013

A few thoughts on Friday's tennis:

Cilic v Nishikori:

I like Cilic at 5/6 in this one given how much he enjoys the surface and a straight set win in his last round over Dimitrov. I tipped him outright @ 13/2 last night, 11/2 is now best available. I expect him to progress here.

Groth v Chardy:

Chardy is a cert to beat Groth in my opinion. There is a big gulf in class here and the 4/9 available on Chardy should be 1/5 in my opinion

Doha Outright:

Monfils is 7/2 here now and I still think that's a very nice price. He will beat Mayer and Le Monf has beaten Nadal only twice in his career - both times in Doha!

Thursday 02 Jan 2014

ATP Brisbane - Anderson v Groth:

Anderson can be had @ 1/3 here which seems huge. Groth is a nothing player with a good serve. Anderson bests him in every department. 1/8 shot.

ATP Brisbane Outright:

The 13/2 Betfred are offering on Marin Cilic looks huge. He disposed of Dimitrov in straight sets and faces Nishikori next. The courts here are fast, to Cilic's liking, and I think he would beat Federer should they meet in the final. 13/2 should be about 4/1 to me

ATP Doha - Nadal v Gulbis:

I think Gulbis can get his first win over Rafa. Rafa has been poor all week. He nearly lost to Tobias Kamke today and was in all sorts of trouble at times in round one v Rosol as well. We all know of the dislike between Rafa and Gulbis and also we know how Gulbis can rise to the big occasion. He will have all the motivation he needs tomorrow against a rusty Nadal. 4/1 looks a decent price to me.

ATP Doha - Monfils v Brands:

Monfils looks a nice bet tomorrow at 8/11 to beat the aggressive German. I think this is the sort of match that suits Monfils despite his head to head with Brands. Monfils to win through, possibly in a few breakers. I was about 1/2 for Monfils on this.

ATP Doha Outright:

I like Monfils here at 11/2 for the outright. He looks in great form and the field has been decimated with Murray and Ferrer gone. I wish I had backed Monfils earlier in the week!