Sydney Final and Australian Open Preview and Picks

Two out of two yesterday with Tomic and Isner both obliging. Tomic, a 20/1 outright bet at the start of the week is in the final tomorrow against Del Potro and I give him a decent shot despite being a 3/1 shot with the oddsmakers. Stakhovsky played an exceptional standard of tennis today and yet Tomic found a way. I think he will be so pumped tomorrow to retain his title and perhaps, just maybe, there will be a small part of Delpo with an eye on next week and maybe wanting to give the Aussie crowd what they want. No recommended bet for either final. Just plenty of crossed fingers for Tomic.

Australian Open 2014 Preview:

The draw has been extremely kind to a select few, and has been horrible to quite a number. Rafa Nadal, for one  can count himself as the most unlucky top seed of recent memory with Tomic, Sijsling, Monfils, Nishikori, Del Potro, Tsonga, and Djokovic his likely route to a now almost impossible title challenge. Djokovic has been handed a beautiful draw with Stan the Man his main threat in what I hope will be a repeat of my favourite tennis match of 2013. Let's take a look at the draw and then some ante-post bets. Tomorrow we will look at some match bets. Here goes:

Q1:

As above, Nadal has angered the Australian tennis Gods somehow and they have sent their prodigal son to thwart him in the very first round. It's not beyond comprehension that Tomic can take Nadal out in round one. I've watch all Bernie's games this week and he's been top notch. If he beats Delpo in the morning, expect his price for the Rafa match to get down somewhere more realistic like 4/1 as opposed to the ridiculous 13/2 that now stands. Nadal dropped sets to Kamke and Gojowczyk in Doha last week and Tomic is quite a different standard to those guys. I expect fireworks in what is the best first round match of the draw. This quarter is by far the toughest and nobody here can be happy. I expect Nadal to make it out but any one of Delpo, Monfils, Tomic, Nishikori, Raonic, or the young up-and-coming Hewitt are all capable of beating him on their day.

Q2: 

Quarter 2 has some very decent seeds in it but not quite the depth of quarter 1. Murray, Tsonga and Federer are all housed here, along with the likes of Isner, Verdasco, Cilic, Kohlschreiber, and Feliciano Lopez. Of all these guys, I think Tsonga is by far the most impressive at the moment. I think there is no chance Murray comes through this quarter. His form is just not there and I think he goes out in the first week. Federer is not the same man he used to be and Tsonga could have crushed him at any moment in their exhibition last week when he gifted Federer a 7-5 win in the final set. Big Jo to make a big run this year down under.

Q3:

This is the quarter you want to be if you want to go on a run to the semi finals. The main two guys are Ferrer and Berdych, with Haas, Youzhny, Dolgopolov, and Janowicz the only other contenders. One of those six guys will be in the semis. Berdych is probably best-placed to do so given Ferrer's form at the moment and the fact that he hits the best ball of all these guys. Janowicz is not in form either so I think Haas or Youzhny have a great opportunity, particularly the latter if he can pull it together like he did at the US Open. I for one would love to see the General go on another run and I hope he's over his stomach virus that forced him out of Chennai.

Q4:

The bottom quarter has Nole and Stan. Nobody else. Stan can start preparing for his QF right now as far as I'm concerned. I don't really think he can beat Nole here over five sets, simply because I don't think he can possibly play any better than he did here last year when it still wasn't enough. Nole will come through but I guess sport is sport and anything can happen so that's why we watch it.


Possible SF 1: Nadal v Tsonga
Possible SF 2: Berdych v Djokovic

Possible Final: Tsonga v Djokovic

Winner: Djokovic

Antepost recommendations:

Outright 

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 75.00 Betfair and 50/1 e/w (Boyles) 1/2 1,2

Marin Cilic 610 (Betfair)

Tommy Haas 600 (Betfair)

Mikhail Youzhny 1000 (Betfair) 

Quarter Betting

Tsonga to win quarter 2 @ 4/1 (Corals)

Youzhny to win quarter 3 @ 16/1 (Corals)

Other

Andy Murray stage of elimination round 3 (Feliciano Lopez) @ 10/1 (Corals)

Roger Federer stage of elimination round 3 (Sergiy Stakhovsky or Fernando Verdasco) @ 8/1 (Corals)

I will add more bets and prices as they become available. Pretty much all of the ante-post bets apart from the outrights should be available at better prices in the coming few days as more and more bookies price it up and join the market. Don't forget to follow on Twitter  @tennis_backer for daily bets and updates.

Over and out!