Sunday 7 July 2013
Wimbledon final
Djokovic v Murray. The final that we predicted here two weeks ago and to be fair, one which wasn't too difficult to predict. Along with Rafa who can't play on grass anymore, these are the best two players in the world. Del Potro is now a close fourth. I got the men's semi finals spot on in terms of the recommended bets. I had no real interest in a dull women's final yesterday but am excited about today for sure. I have been thinking about it and I am leaning towards just enjoying it as a fan than having a bet on it. If I was to have a bet on it, then Murray would be the choice for me. I still might back him, but you have to remember when you back Murray, you are taking on Novak Djokovic. There are easier ways to win a 6/4 bet. For any Djokovic fans, I don't think there is any value to be had. I think Murray is a better grass court player. It will be a close match - both are in great form. Murray had an easier semi final, Murray will have the home crowd, and Murray will have the extra bit of hunger considering he never won this title before. Murray is the value in the match betting for sure - it is up to you if you want to back him. I'm still undecided. Murray to win 3-2 is 6.6 on Betfair and is the most likely score if he is to win, in my opinion. On more betting market which interests me is the ace count. Djokovic to have more aces @ 6/4 on betfair seems to be a decent value bet. He had more than Murray in their five set encounters at the Aussie Open final and at the US Open final. He also had more than DelPo and Berdych in their matches this week and seems to be serving very well. Both guys return so well so it is a bit of a lottery but 6/4 seems good for a pick 'em. Take Murray in 5 and enjoy the tennis!
Thursday 4 July 2013
Men's Semi Finals
So the women's Wimbledon fianl 2013 is set - Sabine Lisicki v Marion Bartoli. I backed Radwanska to beat Lisicki today @ 2.40 and when 3-0 up in the third I managed to lay her of @ 1.18 so it was a good day irrespective of the eventual loss. Lisicki was just playing inspired tennis when it mattered and hats off to her. Anyway, tomorrow is a big big day on the men's side and here are my thoughts:
Del Potro v Djokovic: What an interesting match between two guys who have yet to drop a set in this tournament. Both have been extremely impressive, probably Djokovic more so than Delpo but Delpo beat David Ferrer in straight sets in the quarters so underestimate him at your peril. They have only met once on grass - in a massive contest to earn an Olympic medal for their country at the Olympics at Wimbledon last summer - and Delpo prevailed. In straight sets. He also won their most recent encounter at Indian Wells in March so he knows he can win this match. I think DelPo has a serious chance to pull off the win and his odds of 6/1 on Betfair represent great value in my opinion. I think if you held a gun to my head for a choice then I would have to take Nole but I expect a titanic tussle. The bet of the day for me is to lay three sets on Betfair @ 2.00 (in other words - there will be over 3.5 sets total) Another interesting bet if you fancy it is Delpo to have more aces @ 7/4 on Betfair. He obviously has a better serve than Nole but what you have to factor in is that Nole is a better returner and it can be hard to ace him. They both have 54 aces from five matches so 7/4 seems like decent odds - I probably won't back it myself but just pointing it out! The main bet is over 3.5 sets here.
Murray v Janowicz: the second match of the day seems a little clear cut to me - if not to the bookies. The respective odds make Djokovic more likely to progress than Murray - but I think Murray has an easier passage. Janowicz has been super - a real revelation, but Murray will relish this one. In a neutral rally, Murray will win 7 out of 10. Murray also has the return to take away Janowicz's best weapon which is his monster serve. I think if Melzer can get 2 sets from Janowicz, then Murray can surely get the job done easily enough. I think it is entirely possible than Janowicz can get a set but I won't be backing it. There are actually no real bets of huge interest for me in this one. If Murray moves out to 1.40 or something like that in-running then I will get involved but not at the pre-match odds. Expect Murray to progress, in 3 or in 4.
Enjoy the tennis and good luck!
Del Potro v Djokovic: What an interesting match between two guys who have yet to drop a set in this tournament. Both have been extremely impressive, probably Djokovic more so than Delpo but Delpo beat David Ferrer in straight sets in the quarters so underestimate him at your peril. They have only met once on grass - in a massive contest to earn an Olympic medal for their country at the Olympics at Wimbledon last summer - and Delpo prevailed. In straight sets. He also won their most recent encounter at Indian Wells in March so he knows he can win this match. I think DelPo has a serious chance to pull off the win and his odds of 6/1 on Betfair represent great value in my opinion. I think if you held a gun to my head for a choice then I would have to take Nole but I expect a titanic tussle. The bet of the day for me is to lay three sets on Betfair @ 2.00 (in other words - there will be over 3.5 sets total) Another interesting bet if you fancy it is Delpo to have more aces @ 7/4 on Betfair. He obviously has a better serve than Nole but what you have to factor in is that Nole is a better returner and it can be hard to ace him. They both have 54 aces from five matches so 7/4 seems like decent odds - I probably won't back it myself but just pointing it out! The main bet is over 3.5 sets here.
Murray v Janowicz: the second match of the day seems a little clear cut to me - if not to the bookies. The respective odds make Djokovic more likely to progress than Murray - but I think Murray has an easier passage. Janowicz has been super - a real revelation, but Murray will relish this one. In a neutral rally, Murray will win 7 out of 10. Murray also has the return to take away Janowicz's best weapon which is his monster serve. I think if Melzer can get 2 sets from Janowicz, then Murray can surely get the job done easily enough. I think it is entirely possible than Janowicz can get a set but I won't be backing it. There are actually no real bets of huge interest for me in this one. If Murray moves out to 1.40 or something like that in-running then I will get involved but not at the pre-match odds. Expect Murray to progress, in 3 or in 4.
Enjoy the tennis and good luck!
Women's SF
No real blog today - just a very short prediction. I have no interest in the Bartoli - Flipkens match but think Bartoli will probably prevail.I do however think Radwanska is worth a bet in the other semi. She is world number 4, Lisicki is 24. Radwanska won their last encounter 6-1 6-2 or something really easy like that. She is 2.34 to win and will never get a better chance to win a slam. I think she might just get too many balls back for Lisicki and I will be backing her @ 2.34.
Best of luck!
Best of luck!
Tuesday 2 July 2013
Men's QF Picks
Brutal day in the women's QF's! Not even going to go into it - Lisicki was the only winner I would have picked so let's move swiftly onto the men's - much more predictable altogether!
Djokovic v Berdych: Berdych has come up against his worst possible opponent here. Djokovic is the worst man on tour for the Itchy Bird to meet and it will be a victory for Nole in this one. Berdych obviously has a massive game and can trouble anyone on his day but I like his chances better against Nole over 3 sets rather than 5 where I think Berdych is likely to drop his level at some stage. In terms if any betting opportunities, I do like Berdych to take a set and so you can back over 3.5 sets with any of the bookies @ about even money or lay Nole 3-0 on Betfair for a similar price. Nole in 4. Would be surprised if it went any further than that.
Ferrer v Del Potro: In this match at last year's Championship, I made every argument under the sun to convince myself that Del Potro would and should beat Ferrer on grass. Ferrer promptly made a joke of my thoughts and analysis and I have never doubted him since. Ferrer just doesn't lose big matches to anyone bar Nadal, Murray, Federer, or Djokovic. You can expect Del Po to hit some sensational winners and over-power Ferrer at times, but just not often enough to get the win. I think Del Po is carrying a slight ankle injury and if he gets behind early at any stage I don't know how big his fight will be. I recommend backing Ferrer to progress @ 1.75 or wait for a slightly better price in play if the chance arises. Ferrer either in 4 or in 5.
Murray v Verdasco: Fernando Verdasco has impressed me more in this tournament than he has in any tournament since the Australian Open 2009. He has taken out Malisse, Benneteau, Gulbis, and de Schepper to get to this stage and has looked every inch the top 10 player he was back in 2009. Murray looks to be a real title contender this year and I actually think he will win the whole thing but expect Verdasco to give him his sternest test yet tomorrow. I think Verdasco is capable of getting a set and that is the only betting market I will be getting involved in. Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.70. Murray in 4.
Janowicz v Kubot: I think this is a mis-match. Kubot is one of the weakest players of all time to get to this stage of Wimbledon and has had a joke of a route to get here. I think Janowicz will school him and I like the taller Pole to come through this Polish Power affair in straight sets. Janowicz looks too big for me @ 2.50 to win in straights and he is worth backing at that price. I can't see Kubot breaking him at all and would certainly favour JJ in a breaker should it get there.
I am going to do a small multi tomorrow on Ferrer, over 3.5 in both Murray and Djokovic matches, and JJ to win 3-0. Comes out @ 15/1 if you fancy a proper punt!!
Enjoy the men's quarters! :)
Djokovic v Berdych: Berdych has come up against his worst possible opponent here. Djokovic is the worst man on tour for the Itchy Bird to meet and it will be a victory for Nole in this one. Berdych obviously has a massive game and can trouble anyone on his day but I like his chances better against Nole over 3 sets rather than 5 where I think Berdych is likely to drop his level at some stage. In terms if any betting opportunities, I do like Berdych to take a set and so you can back over 3.5 sets with any of the bookies @ about even money or lay Nole 3-0 on Betfair for a similar price. Nole in 4. Would be surprised if it went any further than that.
Ferrer v Del Potro: In this match at last year's Championship, I made every argument under the sun to convince myself that Del Potro would and should beat Ferrer on grass. Ferrer promptly made a joke of my thoughts and analysis and I have never doubted him since. Ferrer just doesn't lose big matches to anyone bar Nadal, Murray, Federer, or Djokovic. You can expect Del Po to hit some sensational winners and over-power Ferrer at times, but just not often enough to get the win. I think Del Po is carrying a slight ankle injury and if he gets behind early at any stage I don't know how big his fight will be. I recommend backing Ferrer to progress @ 1.75 or wait for a slightly better price in play if the chance arises. Ferrer either in 4 or in 5.
Murray v Verdasco: Fernando Verdasco has impressed me more in this tournament than he has in any tournament since the Australian Open 2009. He has taken out Malisse, Benneteau, Gulbis, and de Schepper to get to this stage and has looked every inch the top 10 player he was back in 2009. Murray looks to be a real title contender this year and I actually think he will win the whole thing but expect Verdasco to give him his sternest test yet tomorrow. I think Verdasco is capable of getting a set and that is the only betting market I will be getting involved in. Lay Murray 3-0 @ 1.70. Murray in 4.
Janowicz v Kubot: I think this is a mis-match. Kubot is one of the weakest players of all time to get to this stage of Wimbledon and has had a joke of a route to get here. I think Janowicz will school him and I like the taller Pole to come through this Polish Power affair in straight sets. Janowicz looks too big for me @ 2.50 to win in straights and he is worth backing at that price. I can't see Kubot breaking him at all and would certainly favour JJ in a breaker should it get there.
I am going to do a small multi tomorrow on Ferrer, over 3.5 in both Murray and Djokovic matches, and JJ to win 3-0. Comes out @ 15/1 if you fancy a proper punt!!
Enjoy the men's quarters! :)
Monday 1 July 2013
Wimbledon Women's QF Picks
Very brief blog tonight. Manic Monday was a mixed day. Everything pretty much panned out as I said but we got slightly unlucky with several of the bets. Youzhny failed to win a set against Murray and Haas failed to win a set against Djokovic despite both being in extremely strong positions in the second set of their respective matches. Melzer covered the over 3.5 sets market v Janowicz but again he lost in five whereas if he had won it would have been a very profitable day. Likewise Adrian Mannarino, who we took @ 6/4 and who lost in 5 despite being up two sets to one. Ferrer won as we said, although he was much better value in-play rather than the 1.40 available at the start. Verdasco was the main winner for us today, delivering the 3-0 set betting @ 2.20 and the -5.5 games @ 1.90 as well so a double hit there for us. Li Na won @ 1.50 as recommended and then Lisicki delivered on the +6.5 games handicap en route to putting an end to Serena's bid! So all in all a mixed bag but more wins than losses!
Here are my QF picks for Tuesday:
Stephens v Bartoli: I am backing Stephens to come through this one @ 2.10 on the exchanges. She is a better player than the female version of Fabrice Santoro and hopefully she will put the eccentric French woman to the sword tomorrow. Bartoli is a good player, but she can be slow around the court and she doesn't have the movement of Sloane Stephens who seems to be getting better and better these days. Take Sloane to progress.
Lisicki v Kanepi: it's hard to look past Sabine Lisicki, our new tournament favourite, after her performance against Serena today, but if we saw one thing with all the upsets last week, it is that players can tend to have a little lull in their next match after taking out a top player. I think Lisicki will win but I am recommending a lay of her to win 2-0 @ 1.90. Kanepi to get a set at least. She was excellent against Robson today.
Radwanska v Li Na: Li Na hits too big a ball for Radwanksa in my opinion in this one. Radwanksa is the ultimate counter-puncher but this match is ery much on Li's racket and if her performance on Monday was anything to go by then the Pole is in for a lot of running for not much reward. Take Li @ 1.70
Kvitova v Flipkens: No bet recommended in this one. I think Flipkens will be outclassed but the odds on Kvitova don't entice me. The former champ to come up trumps!
In terms of outright value at this stage, Kaia Kanepi looks the value @ 32.00 which seems huge!
I will do my men's QF preview on Tuesday evening. Check back then! Good luck :)
Here are my QF picks for Tuesday:
Stephens v Bartoli: I am backing Stephens to come through this one @ 2.10 on the exchanges. She is a better player than the female version of Fabrice Santoro and hopefully she will put the eccentric French woman to the sword tomorrow. Bartoli is a good player, but she can be slow around the court and she doesn't have the movement of Sloane Stephens who seems to be getting better and better these days. Take Sloane to progress.
Lisicki v Kanepi: it's hard to look past Sabine Lisicki, our new tournament favourite, after her performance against Serena today, but if we saw one thing with all the upsets last week, it is that players can tend to have a little lull in their next match after taking out a top player. I think Lisicki will win but I am recommending a lay of her to win 2-0 @ 1.90. Kanepi to get a set at least. She was excellent against Robson today.
Radwanska v Li Na: Li Na hits too big a ball for Radwanksa in my opinion in this one. Radwanksa is the ultimate counter-puncher but this match is ery much on Li's racket and if her performance on Monday was anything to go by then the Pole is in for a lot of running for not much reward. Take Li @ 1.70
Kvitova v Flipkens: No bet recommended in this one. I think Flipkens will be outclassed but the odds on Kvitova don't entice me. The former champ to come up trumps!
In terms of outright value at this stage, Kaia Kanepi looks the value @ 32.00 which seems huge!
I will do my men's QF preview on Tuesday evening. Check back then! Good luck :)
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