Very brief blog tonight. Manic Monday was a mixed day. Everything pretty much panned out as I said but we got slightly unlucky with several of the bets. Youzhny failed to win a set against Murray and Haas failed to win a set against Djokovic despite both being in extremely strong positions in the second set of their respective matches. Melzer covered the over 3.5 sets market v Janowicz but again he lost in five whereas if he had won it would have been a very profitable day. Likewise Adrian Mannarino, who we took @ 6/4 and who lost in 5 despite being up two sets to one. Ferrer won as we said, although he was much better value in-play rather than the 1.40 available at the start. Verdasco was the main winner for us today, delivering the 3-0 set betting @ 2.20 and the -5.5 games @ 1.90 as well so a double hit there for us. Li Na won @ 1.50 as recommended and then Lisicki delivered on the +6.5 games handicap en route to putting an end to Serena's bid! So all in all a mixed bag but more wins than losses!
Here are my QF picks for Tuesday:
Stephens v Bartoli: I am backing Stephens to come through this one @ 2.10 on the exchanges. She is a better player than the female version of Fabrice Santoro and hopefully she will put the eccentric French woman to the sword tomorrow. Bartoli is a good player, but she can be slow around the court and she doesn't have the movement of Sloane Stephens who seems to be getting better and better these days. Take Sloane to progress.
Lisicki v Kanepi: it's hard to look past Sabine Lisicki, our new tournament favourite, after her performance against Serena today, but if we saw one thing with all the upsets last week, it is that players can tend to have a little lull in their next match after taking out a top player. I think Lisicki will win but I am recommending a lay of her to win 2-0 @ 1.90. Kanepi to get a set at least. She was excellent against Robson today.
Radwanska v Li Na: Li Na hits too big a ball for Radwanksa in my opinion in this one. Radwanksa is the ultimate counter-puncher but this match is ery much on Li's racket and if her performance on Monday was anything to go by then the Pole is in for a lot of running for not much reward. Take Li @ 1.70
Kvitova v Flipkens: No bet recommended in this one. I think Flipkens will be outclassed but the odds on Kvitova don't entice me. The former champ to come up trumps!
In terms of outright value at this stage, Kaia Kanepi looks the value @ 32.00 which seems huge!
I will do my men's QF preview on Tuesday evening. Check back then! Good luck :)
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