Wasn't going to do a post for this but there are a few bets I like so, really quickly, here you go:
Nadal v Stakhovsky: Rafa under 18.5 games is a whopping 4/6 here. It means Nadal needs to win 6-*, 6-*, 6-* which seems very likely considering it's on clay in Madrid. Another small value bet here is Rafa 6-0 first set @ 10/1 if you like it.
De Bakker v Melzer: Melzer is 8/11 to win this match. He is a better player than the Dutchman and it's on clay when the Austrians are likely to be one down in the tie after Haase probably beats Marach so Melzer pretty much has to win to keep the tie alive. He will be confident of beating the flaky De Bakker who he has already beaten this year.
Verdasco v Dolgopolov: I can't see Verdasco having too much trouble here in his hometown, on his preferred surface. He has a nice 2-0 head to head over the out of form Dolgopolov too and he has shortened from 8/13 all the way into 1/2 now which is still just about worth a bet.
Best of luck! :)
Friday 13 September 2013
Monday 9 September 2013
US Open Men's Final
This pretty much sums up my feelings on the match tonight:
I think Nadal is only favourite because of his form but if you look a little deeper, you will see that Nole leads the hard court head to head 11-5 and that can't be overlooked for my money. It is pretty much a coin toss in my book and as that simple young chap above says, one side of that coin is 13/10. Nole serves better and returns better - I don't think either of those statements can be argued. If Djokovic can push Nadal to 5 in the French on Nadal's surface, then yes, he can beat him here for sure. I have backed Djokovic @ 2.4 on Betfair. Another bet I like is the special with Skybet that there will be zero aces after the first two games, and also I like Djokovic to win 3-2 @ 6/1. The money has been made at this stage but always nice to have a bet and enjoy the final!
Over and out :)
Sunday 8 September 2013
Women's US Open Final
Whatever happens today or tomorrow, it will be hard to top the Wawrinka - Djokovic match for sheer entertainment and from a betting point of view with all four recommendations from yesterday clicking. In the women's final today, I think we have a match which both players can win, and where one player, who has won the previous 2 hard court encounters between the pair, is priced at 7/2. I don't care if Serena has shown better form in this tournament - Azarenka beat her in the Cincy final less than 3 weeks ago. Are people forgetting about that one? Azarenka is in Serena's head, make no mistake about that. I don't know if she will win for definite or not, but she has a fantastic chance and has to be backed @ 7/2. You can also take the +4.5 games handicap @ even money although I'm more of a fan of the match betting.
Enjoy :)
Saturday 7 September 2013
Men's US Open Semi Finals
So who would have thought Stan Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet would make up half of the men's semi final line-up before the tournament began!? Well not me for sure, but both guys have earned their right to be here, and Stan in particular I am excited about. I'm 100% sure that Gasquet's journey ends here, but with Stan, anything's possible. I do expect Djokovic to win the match, but it will be a titanic struggle if the same Wawrika who beat Murray shows up, and we have no reason to believe he won't. I spent 20 minutes last night looking over their match in Australia at the beginning of this year and you could do worse than take a look at it yourself. Wawrinka's shotmaking is the best I have ever seen in that match. That was the highest level match I have ever seen. Anyway, in term's of betting today, here are my thoughts:
Djokovic v Wawrinka: I think Nole will win the match, only because he is in great form himself, but I think it will be an enormous struggle for him. I think it will go five sets, I think Djokovic will win in five sets, and I think there are some decent bets to be had on it. The main bet for this match is over 3.5 sets with Bet365 @ 8/11. That's a guarantee in my book. Max bet on that. Other markets I like are 5 sets in the match @ 7/2 with Hills and with Betfair. That seems like great value in my book. I was expecting maybe 5/2 on that. Djokovic to win the match 3-2 is 13/2 on Betfair and 6/1 general with the bookies and that is worth small stakes as I think it is the most likely outcome. Other markets I like here are over 36.5 games total @ 5/6 with Victors which is a nice bet considering most other bookies are 37.5 games. I think it will be covered comfortably. All in all, I think this match will be a long, drawn-out affair with both guys hitting some beautiful winners and Djokovic just having enough to win in the end. This could be a big earner for us.
Gasquet v Nadal: The main bet in this one was 8/11 yesterday but it's 8/13 today so not nearly as good a bet. It was Gasquet +9.5 games with Skybet but it's not a recommendation at those prices. Nadal is about 1/3 and 2/5 general to win 3-0 but you can back him @ 1.54 on Betfair to do the job in straights which I think he will. Other than that, I have no real thoughts on this match. The main match of the day is the first one.
Just before I go, tomorrow's women's final sees Azarenka @ a disgusting 7/2 to beat Serena. Is someone on drugs!? Azarenka beat her in Cincy two weeks ago and has made no secret of the fact that the US Open is her main goal. I don't think she will still be 7/2 tomorrow so that is why I am saying it today. It's a ridiculous price and I wouldn't lay her myself @ 2/1.
Over and out :)
Djokovic v Wawrinka: I think Nole will win the match, only because he is in great form himself, but I think it will be an enormous struggle for him. I think it will go five sets, I think Djokovic will win in five sets, and I think there are some decent bets to be had on it. The main bet for this match is over 3.5 sets with Bet365 @ 8/11. That's a guarantee in my book. Max bet on that. Other markets I like are 5 sets in the match @ 7/2 with Hills and with Betfair. That seems like great value in my book. I was expecting maybe 5/2 on that. Djokovic to win the match 3-2 is 13/2 on Betfair and 6/1 general with the bookies and that is worth small stakes as I think it is the most likely outcome. Other markets I like here are over 36.5 games total @ 5/6 with Victors which is a nice bet considering most other bookies are 37.5 games. I think it will be covered comfortably. All in all, I think this match will be a long, drawn-out affair with both guys hitting some beautiful winners and Djokovic just having enough to win in the end. This could be a big earner for us.
Gasquet v Nadal: The main bet in this one was 8/11 yesterday but it's 8/13 today so not nearly as good a bet. It was Gasquet +9.5 games with Skybet but it's not a recommendation at those prices. Nadal is about 1/3 and 2/5 general to win 3-0 but you can back him @ 1.54 on Betfair to do the job in straights which I think he will. Other than that, I have no real thoughts on this match. The main match of the day is the first one.
Just before I go, tomorrow's women's final sees Azarenka @ a disgusting 7/2 to beat Serena. Is someone on drugs!? Azarenka beat her in Cincy two weeks ago and has made no secret of the fact that the US Open is her main goal. I don't think she will still be 7/2 tomorrow so that is why I am saying it today. It's a ridiculous price and I wouldn't lay her myself @ 2/1.
Over and out :)
Friday 6 September 2013
US Open Women's Semi Finals
A bit of an unlucky day yesterday. The Wawrinka +5.5 games bet obviously clicked and Murray 3-2 @ 6/1 was looking good at that stage but then the Youzhny +8.5 games bet was blown out of the water by a Djokovic bagel in the fourth set when a 2-6 set would have sufficed for us! Anyway, only one bet for me today:
Li Na v Serena Williams: I like Li + 5.5 games @ evens. She is on fire, she is not afraid of Serena, and their head to head has always been close. I can see her taking a set and even if she doesn't, she will cover the handicap.
Best of luck :)
Li Na v Serena Williams: I like Li + 5.5 games @ evens. She is on fire, she is not afraid of Serena, and their head to head has always been close. I can see her taking a set and even if she doesn't, she will cover the handicap.
Best of luck :)
Thursday 5 September 2013
US Open Thursday (Day 11)
Wednesday continued the winning trend with Nadal covering the -8.5 game handicap @ 2.00 on Betfair and also covering the 3-0 set betting @ 4/9. The only other tip for yesterday ended up being a void bet as both Ferrer and Gasquet served 3 double faults apiece so bring your slips back for that one if you've backed it. Very limited betting opportunites for today but I'll see what I can muster up:
Murray v Wawrinka: Firstly let me tell you what way I see this match going. I see one of these guys going out to a 2-0 lead before the other mounts a comeback, and Murray gets it done in 5. I like Wawrinka to beat the +5.5 games handicap @ 4/5 (general). Stan has always done well against Murray and beat him here in 2010. He has just hammered Berdych who hammered Murray in Cinci and this one will be tough. Wawrinka is a tough match-up for Murray. Look at their last meeting for evidence: Wawrinka 6-1 6-2. I am going to recommend the 5 sets here @ 7/2 with Hills which is a whopping price, and also a small bet on Murray 3-2 @ 6/1. That's three bets total for this match.
Youzhny v Djokovic: Youzhny has a 3-5 record against Nole and he is in good form. The times he has lost to the Serb have mostly been close encounters with the General getting a set. While I highly doubt we will be seeing Youzhny don his racket to the crowd like a gentleman tipping his cap at the end of this match, I do think he will cover the + 8.5 game handicap which can be had for even money. That's my bet for this match.
As a side note, Murray can be had @ 11/2 on Betfair and 5/1 with some of the bookies for the outright now which is an insult of a price. He holds the Wimbledon and US Open titles which means at this present moment, Andy Murray owns half of the Grand Slams form the last year. If you had said after Wimbledon that Murray would be availble @ 11/2 at the QF stage of the US Open, you'd be checking in for a little stay in the looney bin. Has he really done that much wrong to warrant 11/2? Not in my book. I still make him and Nole a toss up and the same with Rafa whoever meets him so do the maths.
Enjoy the tennis :)
Murray v Wawrinka: Firstly let me tell you what way I see this match going. I see one of these guys going out to a 2-0 lead before the other mounts a comeback, and Murray gets it done in 5. I like Wawrinka to beat the +5.5 games handicap @ 4/5 (general). Stan has always done well against Murray and beat him here in 2010. He has just hammered Berdych who hammered Murray in Cinci and this one will be tough. Wawrinka is a tough match-up for Murray. Look at their last meeting for evidence: Wawrinka 6-1 6-2. I am going to recommend the 5 sets here @ 7/2 with Hills which is a whopping price, and also a small bet on Murray 3-2 @ 6/1. That's three bets total for this match.
Youzhny v Djokovic: Youzhny has a 3-5 record against Nole and he is in good form. The times he has lost to the Serb have mostly been close encounters with the General getting a set. While I highly doubt we will be seeing Youzhny don his racket to the crowd like a gentleman tipping his cap at the end of this match, I do think he will cover the + 8.5 game handicap which can be had for even money. That's my bet for this match.
As a side note, Murray can be had @ 11/2 on Betfair and 5/1 with some of the bookies for the outright now which is an insult of a price. He holds the Wimbledon and US Open titles which means at this present moment, Andy Murray owns half of the Grand Slams form the last year. If you had said after Wimbledon that Murray would be availble @ 11/2 at the QF stage of the US Open, you'd be checking in for a little stay in the looney bin. Has he really done that much wrong to warrant 11/2? Not in my book. I still make him and Nole a toss up and the same with Rafa whoever meets him so do the maths.
Enjoy the tennis :)
Wednesday 4 September 2013
US Open Wednesday (Day 10)
Yesterday was a bumper day with 5/2 for 5 sets in the Youzhny v Hewitt match and a huge 2/1 winner in Wawrinka over Berdych which was a massive recommendation. We won't get a bet that good for the rest of this tournament. Really quickly, here are today's picks:
Ferrer v Gasquet: A weird bet here but I like Gasquet to serve most double faults @ 8/11 with Bet Victor. Gasquet is notorious for DF's and will be especially nervous against such a good returner as Ferrer.
Nadal v Robredo: Nadal -8.5 @ 2.00 on Betfair is a bet I like here & I also think Nadal 3-0 @ 4/9 with Boyles is a decent price too. He should win in straights. Tommy has had his day out. And he's shtone mad for shpeed
Enjoy! :)
Ferrer v Gasquet: A weird bet here but I like Gasquet to serve most double faults @ 8/11 with Bet Victor. Gasquet is notorious for DF's and will be especially nervous against such a good returner as Ferrer.
Nadal v Robredo: Nadal -8.5 @ 2.00 on Betfair is a bet I like here & I also think Nadal 3-0 @ 4/9 with Boyles is a decent price too. He should win in straights. Tommy has had his day out. And he's shtone mad for shpeed
Enjoy! :)
Tuesday 3 September 2013
US Open Tuesday (Day 9)
Monday saw what looked like a 100% day turn into a 50% day. It began with wins for Ferrer and for Robredo with the handicap. It then looked like Kohlschreiber was home and hosed for the +8.5 games bet but he lost the last two sets 3 and 1 and so lost out by a game which was a sickener, much like Sloane last night. I had it backed + 9.5 with Stan James myself so just about sneaked over the line but a frustrating one nevertheless. He would have been far better off losing that first set breaker for the purposes of our bet. Lastly, Ranonic found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against Gasquet, losing MP's along the way but neither were too impressive. Here are today's match picks:
Youzhny v Hewitt: This is a difficult one. Hewitt leads the head to head 6-1 which is hard to see past. However, before looking up their head to head I thought Youzhny would win this match. So it is a case of the head v the heart! I was impressed with Youzhny against Tommy Haas but I was also impressed with Hewitt against Del Potro. While I think Youzhny will likely win this one, 4/6 is not good value for a player with an inferior 1-6 record. So no match-bet here for me (Hewitt is the value, I just don't fancy him) I have a feeling it will be tight so 5/2 for a five setter is probably all I can muster up form this one if you do fancy something. Best avoided.
Wawrinka v Berdych: This is a monster price error for me. Look up these two guys head to head and tell me Stan Wawrinka should be 2/1.You can't. Because it's not possible. Of their eleven meetings, Stan has won six and Berdych has won five. I would price this match about 11/8 Wawrinka, and that's worst case scenario for him. I can't believe he is 2/1 and he is a huge recommendation at those odds. Whether he ends up winning or losing, 2/1 is a ridiculous price. Both guys have been playing very well, but the switch to Magnus Norman's camp has paid dividends for Stan. Norman worked wonders with Robin Soderling and he seems to be doing the same job with Stan the Man. Wawrinka has a big chance in this match and I'm taking him to win at 2/1 or 3.3 on Betfair. Allez
Granollers v Djokovic: Djokovic wins this in straights but I think +10.5 on Granollers at EVS is a little too generous and so that is my recommendation here. A 6-3 6-3 6-2 loss or something similar will suffice.
Murray v Istomin: I think the handicap is pretty much bang on in this one so the bet I like most is for Murray to serve the most aces at 1.70 on Betfair which I think is pretty assured. Istomin is a lovely server but Murray serves big too and Murray is so much ahead of Istomin in terms of returning serve - Murray doesn't get aced much and sometimes players tend to take a little off the first serve when they play the likes of Murray or Djokovic to avoid having their second serve crucified. 1.70 is a good price - so far none of the bookies have gone up with a price for this market but keep an eye out. Anything 4/7 and above for Murray is there to be shot at.
Over and out :)
Youzhny v Hewitt: This is a difficult one. Hewitt leads the head to head 6-1 which is hard to see past. However, before looking up their head to head I thought Youzhny would win this match. So it is a case of the head v the heart! I was impressed with Youzhny against Tommy Haas but I was also impressed with Hewitt against Del Potro. While I think Youzhny will likely win this one, 4/6 is not good value for a player with an inferior 1-6 record. So no match-bet here for me (Hewitt is the value, I just don't fancy him) I have a feeling it will be tight so 5/2 for a five setter is probably all I can muster up form this one if you do fancy something. Best avoided.
Wawrinka v Berdych: This is a monster price error for me. Look up these two guys head to head and tell me Stan Wawrinka should be 2/1.You can't. Because it's not possible. Of their eleven meetings, Stan has won six and Berdych has won five. I would price this match about 11/8 Wawrinka, and that's worst case scenario for him. I can't believe he is 2/1 and he is a huge recommendation at those odds. Whether he ends up winning or losing, 2/1 is a ridiculous price. Both guys have been playing very well, but the switch to Magnus Norman's camp has paid dividends for Stan. Norman worked wonders with Robin Soderling and he seems to be doing the same job with Stan the Man. Wawrinka has a big chance in this match and I'm taking him to win at 2/1 or 3.3 on Betfair. Allez
Granollers v Djokovic: Djokovic wins this in straights but I think +10.5 on Granollers at EVS is a little too generous and so that is my recommendation here. A 6-3 6-3 6-2 loss or something similar will suffice.
Murray v Istomin: I think the handicap is pretty much bang on in this one so the bet I like most is for Murray to serve the most aces at 1.70 on Betfair which I think is pretty assured. Istomin is a lovely server but Murray serves big too and Murray is so much ahead of Istomin in terms of returning serve - Murray doesn't get aced much and sometimes players tend to take a little off the first serve when they play the likes of Murray or Djokovic to avoid having their second serve crucified. 1.70 is a good price - so far none of the bookies have gone up with a price for this market but keep an eye out. Anything 4/7 and above for Murray is there to be shot at.
Over and out :)
Monday 2 September 2013
US Open Monday (Day 8)
Sunday went a beautiful 4 from 4 on the men's sidefor another 100% day including a nice 5/2 winner on Seppi/Istomin going 5 sets, but unfortunately a horrible 0 from 2 on the women's side with Sloane inexplicably falling apart in the second set and so failing to cover the +6.5 games handicap somehow. I'm not recommending any more women's matches regardless of what I think about it!
Really quick as I am late with the blog today, here are today's few tips:
Federer v Robredo:Robredo +8.5 games @ 8/11 is the bet here. Federer has been good but Robredo is no mug and how they are giving him the same handicap as Mannarino is an insult to Robredo's skills. I expect Federer will probably get the job done in straights but I still like Robredo with the handicap.
Raonic v Gasquet: I really like Raonic to ocme through this match. I haven't been overly impressed with Gasquet while Raonic has been making his way nicely through the draw. The Missile is decent value in my book @ 1.75 and I think that's a safe enough bet. Raonic in 4.
Tipsarevic v Ferrer: just a straight-up match bet in this one - no way Ferrer loses it for my money and if you don't mind taking a 1/3 shot - Ferrer will win. Alternatively, wait for larger odds in-play if you can get them.
Nadal v Kohlschreiber: Kohlschreiber +8.5 games is the bet here. It can be had with a couple of the bookies. Way too generous. I think about 6 or 7 games. He is a lovely player on hard court and serves well. Nadal will win, probably in straights too, but 8.5 games is too big. Very similiar to the Federer v Robredo match.
Enjoy the tennis. Best of luck :)
Really quick as I am late with the blog today, here are today's few tips:
Federer v Robredo:Robredo +8.5 games @ 8/11 is the bet here. Federer has been good but Robredo is no mug and how they are giving him the same handicap as Mannarino is an insult to Robredo's skills. I expect Federer will probably get the job done in straights but I still like Robredo with the handicap.
Raonic v Gasquet: I really like Raonic to ocme through this match. I haven't been overly impressed with Gasquet while Raonic has been making his way nicely through the draw. The Missile is decent value in my book @ 1.75 and I think that's a safe enough bet. Raonic in 4.
Tipsarevic v Ferrer: just a straight-up match bet in this one - no way Ferrer loses it for my money and if you don't mind taking a 1/3 shot - Ferrer will win. Alternatively, wait for larger odds in-play if you can get them.
Nadal v Kohlschreiber: Kohlschreiber +8.5 games is the bet here. It can be had with a couple of the bookies. Way too generous. I think about 6 or 7 games. He is a lovely player on hard court and serves well. Nadal will win, probably in straights too, but 8.5 games is too big. Very similiar to the Federer v Robredo match.
Enjoy the tennis. Best of luck :)
Sunday 1 September 2013
US Open Sunday (Day 7)
Saturday was another pretty good day @ the US Open with a couple of decent priced winners. Mannarino put a dampner on the night by putting in an abysmal performance in failing to beat the +9.5 games handicap. Maybe a lesson there - don't back against Federer when he's playing against club players! Here are Sunday's selections:
Wawrinka v Baghdatis: This will be an interesting match and a lovely one to watch. I really like both players, Baggy being an all-time favourite of mine. However, I can only see Wawrinka winning this one but I have no interest in backing him @ 1/3. Maybe keep an eye in-running for an opportunity but nothing recommended pre-match in this one.
Seppi v Istomin: This is a strange one. In my mind, Seppi is a far more solid and reliable player than Istomin even though Istomin can be so dangerous. Seppi is higher ranked and has won 5 of their six meetings. So why is he 2.30? If I was pricing this up under normal circumstances I would make Seppi 4/6 favourite. However, I read an interview with Seppi yesterday where he says he's not playing well, gets negative feelings in NY, blah blah blah. So basically it looks like Istomin is the bet here even though everything is screaming a Seppi win. So all in all it is probably best to avoid the match bet here and a bet I like is 5/2 for there to be 5 sets which there has been in their last couple of encounters. Seppi also said in that interview that "with me and Denis, you can just begin in the fifth set" so I think there is value to be had in that market. Take the 5/2 for 5 sets and have a small bet on Seppi 3-2 @ 6/1 because if he goes five sets then I can't see him losing.
Granollers v Smyczek: Granollers too good for me here and backable @ 1.62
Murray v Mayer: Murray knows he has a match on his hands here. He has always had a bit of trouble with Mayer, who looks in decent form. Take Mayer +9.5 games @ a safe 1/2. Alternatively take +8.5 games @ 4/5 but I always like to have the extra game! Another bet I like is over 3.5 sets @ 9/4 but I like it less than the handicap bet!
Serana v Sloane: This could be the bet of the week for me. Sloane is almost even money +6.5 games in this match. She has proved she can mix it with Serena and is hitting the ball so well. I think Serena does NOT like to play Sloane and I actually think Sloane is worth a bet to win this match too @10.5 on Betfair which is an insult of a price. I expect three sets, and I expect a very close match. I recommend a max stake on the plus 6.5 games market.
Kerber v Suarez Navarro: 8/15 on Kerber here - I see her as an outright threat - she was unbelievable against Kanepi - no contest on a hard court against SN.
Enjoy the tennis - hoping for another good day!
Wawrinka v Baghdatis: This will be an interesting match and a lovely one to watch. I really like both players, Baggy being an all-time favourite of mine. However, I can only see Wawrinka winning this one but I have no interest in backing him @ 1/3. Maybe keep an eye in-running for an opportunity but nothing recommended pre-match in this one.
Seppi v Istomin: This is a strange one. In my mind, Seppi is a far more solid and reliable player than Istomin even though Istomin can be so dangerous. Seppi is higher ranked and has won 5 of their six meetings. So why is he 2.30? If I was pricing this up under normal circumstances I would make Seppi 4/6 favourite. However, I read an interview with Seppi yesterday where he says he's not playing well, gets negative feelings in NY, blah blah blah. So basically it looks like Istomin is the bet here even though everything is screaming a Seppi win. So all in all it is probably best to avoid the match bet here and a bet I like is 5/2 for there to be 5 sets which there has been in their last couple of encounters. Seppi also said in that interview that "with me and Denis, you can just begin in the fifth set" so I think there is value to be had in that market. Take the 5/2 for 5 sets and have a small bet on Seppi 3-2 @ 6/1 because if he goes five sets then I can't see him losing.
Granollers v Smyczek: Granollers too good for me here and backable @ 1.62
Murray v Mayer: Murray knows he has a match on his hands here. He has always had a bit of trouble with Mayer, who looks in decent form. Take Mayer +9.5 games @ a safe 1/2. Alternatively take +8.5 games @ 4/5 but I always like to have the extra game! Another bet I like is over 3.5 sets @ 9/4 but I like it less than the handicap bet!
Serana v Sloane: This could be the bet of the week for me. Sloane is almost even money +6.5 games in this match. She has proved she can mix it with Serena and is hitting the ball so well. I think Serena does NOT like to play Sloane and I actually think Sloane is worth a bet to win this match too @10.5 on Betfair which is an insult of a price. I expect three sets, and I expect a very close match. I recommend a max stake on the plus 6.5 games market.
Kerber v Suarez Navarro: 8/15 on Kerber here - I see her as an outright threat - she was unbelievable against Kanepi - no contest on a hard court against SN.
Enjoy the tennis - hoping for another good day!
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