Saturday was another pretty good day @ the US Open with a couple of decent priced winners. Mannarino put a dampner on the night by putting in an abysmal performance in failing to beat the +9.5 games handicap. Maybe a lesson there - don't back against Federer when he's playing against club players! Here are Sunday's selections:
Wawrinka v Baghdatis: This will be an interesting match and a lovely one to watch. I really like both players, Baggy being an all-time favourite of mine. However, I can only see Wawrinka winning this one but I have no interest in backing him @ 1/3. Maybe keep an eye in-running for an opportunity but nothing recommended pre-match in this one.
Seppi v Istomin: This is a strange one. In my mind, Seppi is a far more solid and reliable player than Istomin even though Istomin can be so dangerous. Seppi is higher ranked and has won 5 of their six meetings. So why is he 2.30? If I was pricing this up under normal circumstances I would make Seppi 4/6 favourite. However, I read an interview with Seppi yesterday where he says he's not playing well, gets negative feelings in NY, blah blah blah. So basically it looks like Istomin is the bet here even though everything is screaming a Seppi win. So all in all it is probably best to avoid the match bet here and a bet I like is 5/2 for there to be 5 sets which there has been in their last couple of encounters. Seppi also said in that interview that "with me and Denis, you can just begin in the fifth set" so I think there is value to be had in that market. Take the 5/2 for 5 sets and have a small bet on Seppi 3-2 @ 6/1 because if he goes five sets then I can't see him losing.
Granollers v Smyczek: Granollers too good for me here and backable @ 1.62
Murray v Mayer: Murray knows he has a match on his hands here. He has always had a bit of trouble with Mayer, who looks in decent form. Take Mayer +9.5 games @ a safe 1/2. Alternatively take +8.5 games @ 4/5 but I always like to have the extra game! Another bet I like is over 3.5 sets @ 9/4 but I like it less than the handicap bet!
Serana v Sloane: This could be the bet of the week for me. Sloane is almost even money +6.5 games in this match. She has proved she can mix it with Serena and is hitting the ball so well. I think Serena does NOT like to play Sloane and I actually think Sloane is worth a bet to win this match too @10.5 on Betfair which is an insult of a price. I expect three sets, and I expect a very close match. I recommend a max stake on the plus 6.5 games market.
Kerber v Suarez Navarro: 8/15 on Kerber here - I see her as an outright threat - she was unbelievable against Kanepi - no contest on a hard court against SN.
Enjoy the tennis - hoping for another good day!
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