Friday at the US Open was the best day I've had yet with 5 wins from five picks to follow up four wins from five picks on Thursday. Hoping to keep a decent run going today:
Kukushkin v Ferrer: lay Ferrer to win 3-0 in this one @ 1.7 on BEtfair. To the same extent, you can back Kukushkin to get a set (which is the same thing) with Hills at a whopping 13/8 which I really like. Most of the other bookies are 11/8 or so. He is not the kind of guy Ferrer will like to face. Kukushkin can hit his winners and I'm still not convinced by Ferrer yet
Lopez v Raonic: 2 or more tie-breaks in this match at 21/20 is a bet I like here. While I don't particularly like backing tie-breaks, these two guys are serve machines and I can't see there being more than one or two breaks of serve in the whole match. Another bet you can take if you like is a tie-break in the first set @ 7/4 which seems like a decent bet to my mind.
Dodig v Nadal: Dodig + 9.5 games @ 8/13 with 365 is the bet here. I can't see Nadal beating Dodig 3, 3, and 3 and I wouldn't even be surprised if Dodig took a set. He won their only other hard court match and has just beaten Fernando Verdasco. If you want slightly better odds, + 8.5 is available @ 21/20 but safety first in my eyes! Take the extra game's insurance
Federer v Mannarino: Similar to the one above, I think Mannarino + 9.5 games @ 4/5 is a decent bet v Federer. He is not easy to break, is a lefty which Federer won't like, and is on an upward curve with Roger gong the opposite direction. This is a night match which will favour Federer but I still think it will be a little closer than the handicap suggests. I think about 7 games would be right.
Isner v Kohlschreiber: One final handicap bet to finsih off with. In my opinion, there is a chance Kohlschreiber beats Isner today, but we are going to play it safe and take the German + 4.5 games @ 4/6 with 365. All the other bookies have 3.5 games so again, the extra game is a bit of added insurance. Kohly beat Isner here the last time they met so don't be surprised if he does it again but the handicap seems a nice bet to me against the American tie-break artist
Kuznetsova v Pennetta: Making a rare foray into the women's markets, one price that caught my eye was the 8/11 on offer for Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat the Italian clay courter Pennetta. Kuznetsova has a 5-0 record over the Italian and while her form is not what it should be compared to a few years back, Pennetta will have her work cut out. I will take the Russian at those odds every day of the week. If she shows up playing even her B game, she wins.
Best of luck and enjoy the tennis :)
Saturday 31 August 2013
Friday 30 August 2013
US Open Friday (Day 5)
Thursday was my best day yet at the US Open with the picks going 4 from 5. The only one letting us down was Bernard Tomic who lost to Dan Evans despite winning the first set 6-1. All in all a very good day and hopefully more of the same today. Let's cut straight to the chase:
Dolgopolov v Youzhny: I think Youzhny is the more solid, consistent player here and I would rather have my money riding on him than Dolgopolov. Take Youzhny @ 8/13
Seppi v Devvarman: I think this should be about a 1.30 shot so take the 4/9 about Seppi if you can still find it. He will be too solid and too good for Devvarman whose good run is about to come to an end.
Young v Mayer: This one puts up a proper player against a hyped-up, useless name. 8/13 is too big for Florian Mayer. Young was made to look better than he is against Klizan the last day out. Klizan should forget about tennis - Donald Young will be put to the sword today and I would have a decent bet on Mayer in this one. Very confident
Baghdatis v Anderson: I think Baggy + 4.5 games is not a bad bet here and is 10/11 with some bookies while as short as 8/11 elsewhere. Marcos looked pretty good against Soeda, and Anderson has been in suspect form recently. Take one of my all-time favourite players plus 4.5 games
Hewitt v Del Potro: I have to say, despite not being a fan of the brash Aussie at all, I think Hewitt to win a set at even money is a bit of a steal. Historically, he has always done very well against Del Potro and there is no indication that in a five set match, he can't win one of them. Garcia-Lopez bossed DelPo at times in round one and it should have gone to five sets. I think this one will go at least four and possibly five. Another decent bet on Hewitt to get a set here at EVS.
Enjoy the tennis and good luck :)
Dolgopolov v Youzhny: I think Youzhny is the more solid, consistent player here and I would rather have my money riding on him than Dolgopolov. Take Youzhny @ 8/13
Seppi v Devvarman: I think this should be about a 1.30 shot so take the 4/9 about Seppi if you can still find it. He will be too solid and too good for Devvarman whose good run is about to come to an end.
Young v Mayer: This one puts up a proper player against a hyped-up, useless name. 8/13 is too big for Florian Mayer. Young was made to look better than he is against Klizan the last day out. Klizan should forget about tennis - Donald Young will be put to the sword today and I would have a decent bet on Mayer in this one. Very confident
Baghdatis v Anderson: I think Baggy + 4.5 games is not a bad bet here and is 10/11 with some bookies while as short as 8/11 elsewhere. Marcos looked pretty good against Soeda, and Anderson has been in suspect form recently. Take one of my all-time favourite players plus 4.5 games
Hewitt v Del Potro: I have to say, despite not being a fan of the brash Aussie at all, I think Hewitt to win a set at even money is a bit of a steal. Historically, he has always done very well against Del Potro and there is no indication that in a five set match, he can't win one of them. Garcia-Lopez bossed DelPo at times in round one and it should have gone to five sets. I think this one will go at least four and possibly five. Another decent bet on Hewitt to get a set here at EVS.
Enjoy the tennis and good luck :)
Thursday 29 August 2013
US Open Thursday (Day 4)
Wednesday began very badly and got better. Karlovic beat Blake, Wawrinka beat Stepanek, and Murray/Llodra had under 29.5 games (27) so they were all winners for the blog. Soeda lost to Baghdatis - Marcos looked excellent, no complaints there, but then its gets horrible. Melzer served for the first set at 5-3 v Donskoy, got broken, lost the set 7-5 and from there the match in straight sets. There is no getting my head around that one. Inexplicable. The one that hurt the most though was Benoit Paire, who was twice up a break in the fifth set and indeed served for the match at 5-4, and went 30-0 up in that game, trading @ 1.01 before losing it in tie-break. It's not the first time he has let me down, or Melzer come to think of it, and I will avoid both in future. Here are Thursday's picks:
Haider-Maurer v Kukushkin: I think Kukushkin will win this one. He is 1/2 and I think a far more complete player than the Austrian who is probably more at home on a clay court. Kukushkin can be so dangerous and should have no problems here
Tomic v Evans: Same as the above, Tomic will have learned his lesson from round 1 and will have too much here for a gallant Dan Evans. Class should come through in this one. Take Tomic to win @ 2/5
Nadal v Dutra Silva: this one to have less than 8.5 games in the first set 10/11. That means we have Nadal 6-0, 6-1, and 6-2 which I think covers all the likely outcomes. I think he will probably cover the handicap too which is 7/5 to beat him by 12 games or more (meaning we would need a 2,2, and 2 win) I'm not recommending the handicap win - just the first set one. Dutra Silva is useless.
Sela v Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in bad form but I think he will still have too much for Dudi Sela whose best tennis is behind him. Sela is more at home on the Challenger scene these days and Tipsy should provide another winner for the day at about 1/2
Lopez v Klahn: Lopez wins this, no question. Only thing is you'll only get 1/3 for your money. If you don't mind backing short-odds winners, this one is it.
Enjoy the tennis, mostly short-price today but if they win, nobody will be complaining :)
Haider-Maurer v Kukushkin: I think Kukushkin will win this one. He is 1/2 and I think a far more complete player than the Austrian who is probably more at home on a clay court. Kukushkin can be so dangerous and should have no problems here
Tomic v Evans: Same as the above, Tomic will have learned his lesson from round 1 and will have too much here for a gallant Dan Evans. Class should come through in this one. Take Tomic to win @ 2/5
Nadal v Dutra Silva: this one to have less than 8.5 games in the first set 10/11. That means we have Nadal 6-0, 6-1, and 6-2 which I think covers all the likely outcomes. I think he will probably cover the handicap too which is 7/5 to beat him by 12 games or more (meaning we would need a 2,2, and 2 win) I'm not recommending the handicap win - just the first set one. Dutra Silva is useless.
Sela v Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in bad form but I think he will still have too much for Dudi Sela whose best tennis is behind him. Sela is more at home on the Challenger scene these days and Tipsy should provide another winner for the day at about 1/2
Lopez v Klahn: Lopez wins this, no question. Only thing is you'll only get 1/3 for your money. If you don't mind backing short-odds winners, this one is it.
Enjoy the tennis, mostly short-price today but if they win, nobody will be complaining :)
Wednesday 28 August 2013
US Open Wednesday (Day 3)
Tuesday was a mixed bag, the highlights being a great win for Istomin over Almagro @ 2/1 and a great win for Kohlschreiber to cover the under 18.5 games market. Hopefully we can cut out the losers for Wednesday! Here we go:
Baghdatis v Soeda: I think Go Soeda represents decent value here @ 9/4. He has won his last three matches in a row (albeit all in US Open qualifying), while Marcos has lost all three of his last matches. You never quite know which Baghdatis will show up - at his best of course he wins this match. But Soeda is consistent and I think 9/4 is too big.
Wawrinka v Stepanek: Stan Wawrinka has never beaten Radek Stepanek - in four attempts! Maybe that's why he is 1/2 tonight but I can't see any other result - over 5 sets in a grand slam. Take Wawrinka every day of the week.
Melzer v Donskoy: I backed Melzer in this one @ 2/5 before he beat Monfils in the final of Winston-Salem. He is still 2/5 in places which beggars belief for me given his display last week. I think he is a certainty - he is playing so well and with such confidence. Take Melzer at 2/5 while it's still there. Donskoy is as erratic as they come.
Paire v Bogomolov Jr: Same as the above, I backed Paire @ 1/2 last week for this one. He has since shortened in to 2/5 but is still worth a bet at those odds in a 5 set match versus Bogomolov Jr who I don't rate too highly in my book. Paire all day long - he's a 2/7 shot.
Blake v Karlovic: I fancy Ivo Karlovic to put James Blake out to stud tonight. Blake retires after this US Open and I think Karlovic is a very good price @ 6/5. Karlovic is back playing some great tennis again and will frustrate the hell out of Blake. He also won their two most recent encounters (although back in 2010) and has come through qualifying here this week.
Murray v Llodra: I really like the handicap in this one. Stan James are offering 29.5 games as the handicap with most other firms having the over/under @ 27.5 games. So, take under 29.5 with Stan James @ 10/11. Murray beat Llodra at last years Aussie Open 4, 2, & 0 and I would expect a similar, if not better result today given Murray's improvement and the fact that this is a night match meaning conditions will be slower than during the day. Llodra to keep things interesting for a set before being blown away.
Enjoy the tennis :)
Baghdatis v Soeda: I think Go Soeda represents decent value here @ 9/4. He has won his last three matches in a row (albeit all in US Open qualifying), while Marcos has lost all three of his last matches. You never quite know which Baghdatis will show up - at his best of course he wins this match. But Soeda is consistent and I think 9/4 is too big.
Wawrinka v Stepanek: Stan Wawrinka has never beaten Radek Stepanek - in four attempts! Maybe that's why he is 1/2 tonight but I can't see any other result - over 5 sets in a grand slam. Take Wawrinka every day of the week.
Melzer v Donskoy: I backed Melzer in this one @ 2/5 before he beat Monfils in the final of Winston-Salem. He is still 2/5 in places which beggars belief for me given his display last week. I think he is a certainty - he is playing so well and with such confidence. Take Melzer at 2/5 while it's still there. Donskoy is as erratic as they come.
Paire v Bogomolov Jr: Same as the above, I backed Paire @ 1/2 last week for this one. He has since shortened in to 2/5 but is still worth a bet at those odds in a 5 set match versus Bogomolov Jr who I don't rate too highly in my book. Paire all day long - he's a 2/7 shot.
Blake v Karlovic: I fancy Ivo Karlovic to put James Blake out to stud tonight. Blake retires after this US Open and I think Karlovic is a very good price @ 6/5. Karlovic is back playing some great tennis again and will frustrate the hell out of Blake. He also won their two most recent encounters (although back in 2010) and has come through qualifying here this week.
Murray v Llodra: I really like the handicap in this one. Stan James are offering 29.5 games as the handicap with most other firms having the over/under @ 27.5 games. So, take under 29.5 with Stan James @ 10/11. Murray beat Llodra at last years Aussie Open 4, 2, & 0 and I would expect a similar, if not better result today given Murray's improvement and the fact that this is a night match meaning conditions will be slower than during the day. Llodra to keep things interesting for a set before being blown away.
Enjoy the tennis :)
Tuesday 27 August 2013
US Open Tuesday (Day 2)
So we are on the way to a 5 from 6 start on day 1 with Serra coming up with a set v Lopez, Tomic, Robredo, Kukushkin all winning, and Giraldo on his way to a win before rain halted play overnight. The only loss was Verdasco and that was in five sets. So a decent start and here are Tuesday's picks:
Sock v Petzschner: I think Petzschner has a great chance here and certainly a better chance than the 6/4 odds suggest. He has come through qualifying easily, looks in decent form, and meets a player who has lost 6 of his last 8 matches including his last 3 in a row. I like Petzschner to progress, the wily auld vet that he is.
Young v Klizan: Donald Young is a joke of a player and while Klizan's form has been very patchy, he is defending a couple of points here so needs a good showing. I think 4/5 is a fantastic price for the Slovak
Istomin v Almagro: This match is an interesting one. On paper, Almagro should win. However, Istomin's leads the head to head 2-0 (both in 2010), and has racked up a few decent wins on hard courts already this summer, over the likes of Yen-Hsun Lu and Janko Tipsarevic. Almagro hasn't won a hard court match this summer and so I think the 2/1 on offer for the hard-hitting Uzbek is too generous. Hard match to call but Istomin has more than a 33% chance to win it as the odds suggest so that's why I'm backing it.
Chardy v Stakhovsky: As opposed to calling a winner in this one, my recommendation is for there to be a tie break at a very generous 8/13 with some of the leading bookmakers. Great price.
Kohlschreiber v Altamirano: This could be an absolute rout. Kohlschreiber goes off the 1/200 fav with most bookies against a player who won his wildcard here and doesn't even have an ATP ranking. He is 17 years old and is going to take a beating. The handicap is 11.5 games and Kohlschreiber is 1/2 to beat that. However Kohlschreiber to have under 18.5 games can be had @ 1/2 with one BetVictor, which seems enormous. All Kohlschreiber needs to do for the bet to be successful is to win in straight sets 6-*, 6-*, 6-*, i.e. no sets going 7-5 or 7-6. Seems quite likely.
Enjoy Teusday's action. Over and out :)
Sock v Petzschner: I think Petzschner has a great chance here and certainly a better chance than the 6/4 odds suggest. He has come through qualifying easily, looks in decent form, and meets a player who has lost 6 of his last 8 matches including his last 3 in a row. I like Petzschner to progress, the wily auld vet that he is.
Young v Klizan: Donald Young is a joke of a player and while Klizan's form has been very patchy, he is defending a couple of points here so needs a good showing. I think 4/5 is a fantastic price for the Slovak
Istomin v Almagro: This match is an interesting one. On paper, Almagro should win. However, Istomin's leads the head to head 2-0 (both in 2010), and has racked up a few decent wins on hard courts already this summer, over the likes of Yen-Hsun Lu and Janko Tipsarevic. Almagro hasn't won a hard court match this summer and so I think the 2/1 on offer for the hard-hitting Uzbek is too generous. Hard match to call but Istomin has more than a 33% chance to win it as the odds suggest so that's why I'm backing it.
Chardy v Stakhovsky: As opposed to calling a winner in this one, my recommendation is for there to be a tie break at a very generous 8/13 with some of the leading bookmakers. Great price.
Kohlschreiber v Altamirano: This could be an absolute rout. Kohlschreiber goes off the 1/200 fav with most bookies against a player who won his wildcard here and doesn't even have an ATP ranking. He is 17 years old and is going to take a beating. The handicap is 11.5 games and Kohlschreiber is 1/2 to beat that. However Kohlschreiber to have under 18.5 games can be had @ 1/2 with one BetVictor, which seems enormous. All Kohlschreiber needs to do for the bet to be successful is to win in straight sets 6-*, 6-*, 6-*, i.e. no sets going 7-5 or 7-6. Seems quite likely.
Enjoy Teusday's action. Over and out :)
Sunday 25 August 2013
US Open Monday (Day 1)
Monday brings about the first day's action from the 2013 US Open at Flushing Meadows in New York City I will be posting daily selections based not only on value but on liklihood of winning also. For the purpose of this blog, there is no point giving a good value 6/1 shot if it doesn't have a decent chance of winning - people don't want that since all I'm ever asked about is the "certs for tomorrow"! So I am looking for value primarily on favourites, pick 'em, or at least relatively close matches. Here are Monday's, and before I begin, I'm just pointing out that Monday is not a great day betting-wise so keep it in the pocket until we see what Tuesday has to offer anyway:
(note all prices quoted below are best available)
Albert Ramos v Bernard Tomic: Tomic can be had @ 2/5 in a match where I think he is a 1/5 shot. This is a Grand Slam, it's on a hard court, and he is a million times better than Albert Ramos who is more at home in an ATP 250 on clay.... Tomic easy.
Mikhail Kukushkin v Andrej Martin: Somehow Stan James are giving 2/5 on Kukushkin here - he is 1.33 to lay on Betfair! So a bit of a slip up on their part. Kukushkin came through qualifying while Martin only gets in as a lucky loser. Expect Kukushkin to crush him and get on the 2/5 if you can
Verdasco v Dodig: I thought some of the tennis Verdasco played against Monfils in Winston-Salem last week was of a good standard and his form has been good in general the last few months. 4/7 is a good price to beat Ivan Dodig, probably in 4 sets.
Giraldo v Berlocq: Berloqc hasn't played a match in months - he has been out with an injury, while Giraldo has notched a few good wins on hard. 9/10 is a good price in my opinion. Giraldo would probably be 6/4 if both players were fit, but Berlocq is not at his best and this could be a rout! But still, approach it with care - at the end of the day, it is still 2 clay courters on a hard court!
Tommy Robredo v Marinko Matosevic: I have been impressed with Matosevic's form the last few months, but this is a Grand Slam and Tommy Robredo always seems to find a way to get the job done. I think he will progress past Matosevic and am happy to take the 8/13 available, but it will be a close affair. I think Robredo in five.
If you want a look at an outside shot for Monday, take one of Kuznetsov (5/2) to beat Dudi Sela or Serra (6/1) to beat Lopez. I definitely like Serra to get a set so over 3.5 sets @ 6/5 wouldn't be a bad shot here.
Good luck Monday :)
(note all prices quoted below are best available)
Albert Ramos v Bernard Tomic: Tomic can be had @ 2/5 in a match where I think he is a 1/5 shot. This is a Grand Slam, it's on a hard court, and he is a million times better than Albert Ramos who is more at home in an ATP 250 on clay.... Tomic easy.
Mikhail Kukushkin v Andrej Martin: Somehow Stan James are giving 2/5 on Kukushkin here - he is 1.33 to lay on Betfair! So a bit of a slip up on their part. Kukushkin came through qualifying while Martin only gets in as a lucky loser. Expect Kukushkin to crush him and get on the 2/5 if you can
Verdasco v Dodig: I thought some of the tennis Verdasco played against Monfils in Winston-Salem last week was of a good standard and his form has been good in general the last few months. 4/7 is a good price to beat Ivan Dodig, probably in 4 sets.
Giraldo v Berlocq: Berloqc hasn't played a match in months - he has been out with an injury, while Giraldo has notched a few good wins on hard. 9/10 is a good price in my opinion. Giraldo would probably be 6/4 if both players were fit, but Berlocq is not at his best and this could be a rout! But still, approach it with care - at the end of the day, it is still 2 clay courters on a hard court!
Tommy Robredo v Marinko Matosevic: I have been impressed with Matosevic's form the last few months, but this is a Grand Slam and Tommy Robredo always seems to find a way to get the job done. I think he will progress past Matosevic and am happy to take the 8/13 available, but it will be a close affair. I think Robredo in five.
If you want a look at an outside shot for Monday, take one of Kuznetsov (5/2) to beat Dudi Sela or Serra (6/1) to beat Lopez. I definitely like Serra to get a set so over 3.5 sets @ 6/5 wouldn't be a bad shot here.
Good luck Monday :)
Friday 23 August 2013
US Open 2013 Draw Analysis & Outright/Quarter Betting
So the 2013 United States Open is upon us and before I give my take on the draw, here are my thoughts on the tournament:
As we already know, the draw has placed Djokovic, Murray, and Del Potro together in the top half. In quarter 1, we have Djokovic and Del Potro. Djoker will have to come through Dimitrov and Benoit Paire to set up his meeting with the Tower of Tandil, who will have to overcome Jurgen Melzer and Tommy Haas to set up that blockbuster quarter final with the world number one. Having seen Del Po run Nole close at Wimbledon in the semis, I believe he has what it takes to beat Djokovic at the US Open and wouldn't be too surprised if he did beat him here.
In quarter 2, Andy Murray should make it to the semis, if he can overcome the winner of the Wawrinka/Berdych 4th round match which could go either way. Berdych has given Murray problems lately and the Scot would prefer if he were to face Wawrinka rather than the Czech for a place in the last 4. I do expect Murray to come through here, but not without some serious battles first. There is nobody outside those 3 who have any chance of progressing out of this quarter.
In quarter 3, we have the most open section of the draw with serious chances for some lower-ranked players, most noticeably my main man Ernests Gulbis. This quarter has Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer as the top seeds and then some proper dangers like Raonic, Janowicz, and Gulbis. I genuinely think Gulbis can come through here, and he will believe in his chances. So too will Raonic, and Janowicz and I expect one of those 3 (hopefully Gulbis) to come through to the semi finals at the expense of Gasquet and Ferrer, both who have looked out of form in the past month or so.
Finally, in quarter 4, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer are likely to meet again in the quarters. Their last match in Cincinnati was impressive stuff from both but Federer struggled over 3 sets and will have zero chance over 5. Both will face some struggles on the way to that point with Isner, Robredo, Nishikori, Monfils, Kohlschreiber, and Verdasco all housed in this section too.
So my quarter final line-ups are as follows: Djokovic v Del Potro, Murray v Wawrinka, Raonic v Gulbis, and Federer v Nadal. I won't call an overall winner except to say that any of the 4 I outlined earlier can win and hopefully it will be DelPo as I backed him at 13/1 before the draw (my bad luck!)
In terms of other bets, Gulbis can be had @ 7/1 to win quarter 3 and that looks like value for me - Ferrer has no chance in that quarter for my money - his form is horrendous.
I will update the blog every night of the US Open with picks for each day. That is where the real money will be made.
Over & out :)
- There are only 4 guys who can win it
- Their names are Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Juan Martin Del Potro
- Before the draw, I would have attributed the following percentages to each players' chances of success: Nadal and Djokovic 30% each, Murray 20%, Del Potro 15%, upset 5%
- The draw has been kind to Nadal, placing the other 3 contenders in the same half
- My percentages are now: Nadal 40%, Djokovic 25%, Murray 25%, Del Potro 8%, upset 2%
As we already know, the draw has placed Djokovic, Murray, and Del Potro together in the top half. In quarter 1, we have Djokovic and Del Potro. Djoker will have to come through Dimitrov and Benoit Paire to set up his meeting with the Tower of Tandil, who will have to overcome Jurgen Melzer and Tommy Haas to set up that blockbuster quarter final with the world number one. Having seen Del Po run Nole close at Wimbledon in the semis, I believe he has what it takes to beat Djokovic at the US Open and wouldn't be too surprised if he did beat him here.
In quarter 2, Andy Murray should make it to the semis, if he can overcome the winner of the Wawrinka/Berdych 4th round match which could go either way. Berdych has given Murray problems lately and the Scot would prefer if he were to face Wawrinka rather than the Czech for a place in the last 4. I do expect Murray to come through here, but not without some serious battles first. There is nobody outside those 3 who have any chance of progressing out of this quarter.
In quarter 3, we have the most open section of the draw with serious chances for some lower-ranked players, most noticeably my main man Ernests Gulbis. This quarter has Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer as the top seeds and then some proper dangers like Raonic, Janowicz, and Gulbis. I genuinely think Gulbis can come through here, and he will believe in his chances. So too will Raonic, and Janowicz and I expect one of those 3 (hopefully Gulbis) to come through to the semi finals at the expense of Gasquet and Ferrer, both who have looked out of form in the past month or so.
Finally, in quarter 4, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer are likely to meet again in the quarters. Their last match in Cincinnati was impressive stuff from both but Federer struggled over 3 sets and will have zero chance over 5. Both will face some struggles on the way to that point with Isner, Robredo, Nishikori, Monfils, Kohlschreiber, and Verdasco all housed in this section too.
So my quarter final line-ups are as follows: Djokovic v Del Potro, Murray v Wawrinka, Raonic v Gulbis, and Federer v Nadal. I won't call an overall winner except to say that any of the 4 I outlined earlier can win and hopefully it will be DelPo as I backed him at 13/1 before the draw (my bad luck!)
In terms of other bets, Gulbis can be had @ 7/1 to win quarter 3 and that looks like value for me - Ferrer has no chance in that quarter for my money - his form is horrendous.
I will update the blog every night of the US Open with picks for each day. That is where the real money will be made.
Over & out :)
Friday 16 August 2013
Cincinnati Friday
Very short post today after a good day yesterday. I think the four favourites will win today, Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, and DelPo. If I had to go for one upset it would be Murray to lose to Berdych or maybe if Federer can catch fire he has a small chance on these faster courts but I think the 4 favs will win and you could do worse than a four-fold acca!
Bigger post this evening :)
Bigger post this evening :)
Wednesday 14 August 2013
Cincinnati Thursday
We went one from two Wednesday with Gasquet having a stinker of a first set breaker against Isner. His double fault on set point cost him the match. Tursunov got the day back on track with a straight set win over old man James Blake as we predicted.
Here are tomorrow's matches:
Federer v Haas: 1/2 seems a good price to me for Federer to beat Haas. I am not going along with the general view in the tennis fraternity that Haas is in the form of his life - he's not. Federer has pretty much always had too much for him and will again on Thursday. He's back using the smaller-head stick again and it seems a good idea. It was a tidy win over Kohlschreiber and I'm having the 1/2 on offer to beat Haas.
Ferrer v Tursunov: I am not saying Tursunov will win this match but the surface suits him, he has a win over Ferrer already this year ON CLAY, and he is a nice price for a player in good form like he is. Take Tursunov @ 4.0 if you can get it.
Raonic v Isner: I think this is a toss up and Raonic can be had @ 2.4 so it seems like good value for me. He is the one in the top ten after all. Expect three tie breaks!!
Enjoy the tennis :)
Here are tomorrow's matches:
Federer v Haas: 1/2 seems a good price to me for Federer to beat Haas. I am not going along with the general view in the tennis fraternity that Haas is in the form of his life - he's not. Federer has pretty much always had too much for him and will again on Thursday. He's back using the smaller-head stick again and it seems a good idea. It was a tidy win over Kohlschreiber and I'm having the 1/2 on offer to beat Haas.
Ferrer v Tursunov: I am not saying Tursunov will win this match but the surface suits him, he has a win over Ferrer already this year ON CLAY, and he is a nice price for a player in good form like he is. Take Tursunov @ 4.0 if you can get it.
Raonic v Isner: I think this is a toss up and Raonic can be had @ 2.4 so it seems like good value for me. He is the one in the top ten after all. Expect three tie breaks!!
Enjoy the tennis :)
Tuesday 13 August 2013
Cincinnati Wednesday
One tight loss, one brutal loss, one retirement, and one win. Has to get better than that.... Here are Wednesday's matches, there are very few:
Tursunov v Blake: despite Blake overcoming Janowicz on Monday, I would never back Blake to be consistent and Tursunov has been on a decent little run lately. He is not exactly Mr. Consistency himself but I like him at even money to get the job done against Blake tomorrow.
Isner v Gasquet: I think even money on Richard Gasquet is a lovely bit of business here. He is obviously a way better player than Isner - it is just a matter of how many chances he can give himself on return. I'll gladly take even money on the talented Frenchman getting plenty.
On another note, I think the Polish Power are a decent bet to beat Llodra/Mahut in the doubles, and I think Dimitrov is unbelievable value @ 125/1 still in the outright having dismissed Almagro and Baker with the minimum of fuss.
Over and out....
Tursunov v Blake: despite Blake overcoming Janowicz on Monday, I would never back Blake to be consistent and Tursunov has been on a decent little run lately. He is not exactly Mr. Consistency himself but I like him at even money to get the job done against Blake tomorrow.
Isner v Gasquet: I think even money on Richard Gasquet is a lovely bit of business here. He is obviously a way better player than Isner - it is just a matter of how many chances he can give himself on return. I'll gladly take even money on the talented Frenchman getting plenty.
On another note, I think the Polish Power are a decent bet to beat Llodra/Mahut in the doubles, and I think Dimitrov is unbelievable value @ 125/1 still in the outright having dismissed Almagro and Baker with the minimum of fuss.
Over and out....
Monday 12 August 2013
Cincinnati Tuesday
Only three or four bets which interest me on Tuesday at the Western & Southern Open:
Kevin Anderson v Tommy Haas: everything is screaming Haas here but for some reason I think Anderson will beat him and I think he is in better form than Haas. Haas has been disappointing lately (pretty much the last few months) and I think slight odds-against represent decent value on Anderson to take out this Haas-been :)
Vasek Pospisil v Gilles Simon: I think Simon is as close as it gets to a certainty here and is MASSIVE value @ 1.78 against a fatigued Pospisil who had gone final, semi final in his last two tournaments. Pospisil, despite his run last week, is not in the same league as Gilles Simon in my opinion. I think Simon will win and I am recommeding a max bet on this one. Pospisil is in for a long day..... Allez Gilles
Robredo v Bellucci: This one interests me just for value rather than outcome. Bellucci should be about 5/4 in this match and he is available @ 2.8 on Betfair which is enormous. I am not saying he will win but I am saying he is terrific value and is worth a bet at those odds.
Roger-Vasselin v Nieminen: I think Nieminen is a better player then Roger-Vasselin and he is good value @ 6/4 in this one. Take the Finn to get through in a close encounter.
Best of luck :)
Kevin Anderson v Tommy Haas: everything is screaming Haas here but for some reason I think Anderson will beat him and I think he is in better form than Haas. Haas has been disappointing lately (pretty much the last few months) and I think slight odds-against represent decent value on Anderson to take out this Haas-been :)
Vasek Pospisil v Gilles Simon: I think Simon is as close as it gets to a certainty here and is MASSIVE value @ 1.78 against a fatigued Pospisil who had gone final, semi final in his last two tournaments. Pospisil, despite his run last week, is not in the same league as Gilles Simon in my opinion. I think Simon will win and I am recommeding a max bet on this one. Pospisil is in for a long day..... Allez Gilles
Robredo v Bellucci: This one interests me just for value rather than outcome. Bellucci should be about 5/4 in this match and he is available @ 2.8 on Betfair which is enormous. I am not saying he will win but I am saying he is terrific value and is worth a bet at those odds.
Roger-Vasselin v Nieminen: I think Nieminen is a better player then Roger-Vasselin and he is good value @ 6/4 in this one. Take the Finn to get through in a close encounter.
Best of luck :)
Sunday 11 August 2013
Western & Southern Open Preview
Just before I look at the draw for Cincy, I have to say what a successful blog preview we did for Montreal. If you had done what I said before the tournament, you'd be laughing now. I tipped Rafa as the outright value @ 7/1 and Raonic as the dark horse @ 66/1. Hoping for more of the same this week.....
I'm not going into the details and nitty gritty match ups of the draw because a) I don't have time, and b) nobody gives a shit! All people want is the bottom line and here it is: Del Potro and Federer are the value this week. Both are available @ 9/1 and both have a great chance in my book. DelPo has been on fire and went out early in Montreal which helps his chances here. Federer didn't even play Montreal and came to Cincy a week early to practice and returns as defending champ. I think also the fact that Rafa won Montreal means he won't care as much about Cincy - in my opinion he needs to take an easy week. Win a round or two and tank, save the knees, save his energy, keep his confidence. Federer is too big at 9/1 (12/1 on Betfair) and the same goes for DelPo (10/1 Betfair). As a dark horse outsider you could do worse than Grigor Dimitrov @ 150/1.
Monday's matches: here are some selected matches that stand out in terms of value for me on Monday:
Kohlschreiber v Fish: Kohlschreiber should have too much for a still well-below-par Mardy Fish in this first round match up. I haven't been impressed with Fish since he returned and he is, by his own admission, still a long way from his best. Kohly @ 4/5 here....
Almagro v Dimitrov: On hard court this should be a win for the Bulgarian in my opinion. He seems like good value at a shade of odds on and I think he needs a big week here this week to set him up for a good run at the USO.
Fognini v Stepanek: Fognini impressed me with a good run in Montreal after his few weeks on clay and for him to beat Stepanek @ odds against is the best bet of the day for me tomorrow. Should be 4/6 in my book.
Melzer v Monaco: Monaco leads the hed to head but Melzer can beat him on hard court. Melzer has a new coach in his corner too and Monaco is only back from a stint on clay. Take Melzer for value @ 6/4
I'll be back tomorrow night - enjoy the tennis! :)
I'm not going into the details and nitty gritty match ups of the draw because a) I don't have time, and b) nobody gives a shit! All people want is the bottom line and here it is: Del Potro and Federer are the value this week. Both are available @ 9/1 and both have a great chance in my book. DelPo has been on fire and went out early in Montreal which helps his chances here. Federer didn't even play Montreal and came to Cincy a week early to practice and returns as defending champ. I think also the fact that Rafa won Montreal means he won't care as much about Cincy - in my opinion he needs to take an easy week. Win a round or two and tank, save the knees, save his energy, keep his confidence. Federer is too big at 9/1 (12/1 on Betfair) and the same goes for DelPo (10/1 Betfair). As a dark horse outsider you could do worse than Grigor Dimitrov @ 150/1.
Monday's matches: here are some selected matches that stand out in terms of value for me on Monday:
Kohlschreiber v Fish: Kohlschreiber should have too much for a still well-below-par Mardy Fish in this first round match up. I haven't been impressed with Fish since he returned and he is, by his own admission, still a long way from his best. Kohly @ 4/5 here....
Almagro v Dimitrov: On hard court this should be a win for the Bulgarian in my opinion. He seems like good value at a shade of odds on and I think he needs a big week here this week to set him up for a good run at the USO.
Fognini v Stepanek: Fognini impressed me with a good run in Montreal after his few weeks on clay and for him to beat Stepanek @ odds against is the best bet of the day for me tomorrow. Should be 4/6 in my book.
Melzer v Monaco: Monaco leads the hed to head but Melzer can beat him on hard court. Melzer has a new coach in his corner too and Monaco is only back from a stint on clay. Take Melzer for value @ 6/4
I'll be back tomorrow night - enjoy the tennis! :)
Wednesday 7 August 2013
Coupe Rogers Wednesday
This seems to be a tournament of upsets so far with all the Canadians pretty much winning all round them. Does that mean Rafa should watch his back today? Nah, Levine is not a real Canadian anyway.... but then again neither is Milos.
Here are today's matches:
Fognini v Gulbis: I can't possibly tip Gulbis @ 1.6 in this one. While I think he will stand up and be counted today, I think Fognini has found his range now on hard courts after a tough 3 setter with Baghdatis which ended 1-6 6-1 6-1 in favour of the ladies man. Gulbis is more than capable of beating him but he is no value @ 1.6 and Fognini actually represents the value here @ 2.6.
Paire v Wawrinka: This is a strange one between two genuine best friends! When that happens, you can throw the form book out the window. Paire is value @ 3.00 particularly as he has a match under his belt here in which he hammered Kohlschreiber. Wawrinka's form has been pretty suspect too.
Dolgopolov v Berdych: After taking out Kevin Anderson so comfortably, I am surprised to see that Dolgopolov is 4.1 for this one. I think that is a good bet in what is Berdych's first match in some time. Their only 2 previous meetings have come in Canada and both went to Berdych but in three sets so 4.1 is not without a chance.
Davydenko v Andujar: Nikolay scored a nice win over Gilles Simon in round one and he will have more than enough for Pablo Andujar here. I won't recommend a bet however as he is still Nikolay Davydenko and you would want your head examined to back him pre-match!
Youzhny v Raonic: this is a tricky one. Raonic is certainly still not back to his best and I think Youzhny might just be some value here @ 2.2 on the exchanges. Youzhny has been playing so well. He won Gstaad and beat Melzer in straights here yesterday. It might be worth taking on the home crowd and Milos the Missile in this one.
Granollers v Murray: Granollers surprised everyone with a straight sets win over Dimitrov in round one having just arrived from a clay court title in Kitzbuhel. He will give Murray a decent test and I would go with the Spaniard to cover whatever the game handicap is (probably +6.5). He will probably be good value to get a set too and he has beaten Murray already this year, albeit on clay. Murray will have a match on his hands here.
Enjoy the tennis :)
Here are today's matches:
Fognini v Gulbis: I can't possibly tip Gulbis @ 1.6 in this one. While I think he will stand up and be counted today, I think Fognini has found his range now on hard courts after a tough 3 setter with Baghdatis which ended 1-6 6-1 6-1 in favour of the ladies man. Gulbis is more than capable of beating him but he is no value @ 1.6 and Fognini actually represents the value here @ 2.6.
Paire v Wawrinka: This is a strange one between two genuine best friends! When that happens, you can throw the form book out the window. Paire is value @ 3.00 particularly as he has a match under his belt here in which he hammered Kohlschreiber. Wawrinka's form has been pretty suspect too.
Dolgopolov v Berdych: After taking out Kevin Anderson so comfortably, I am surprised to see that Dolgopolov is 4.1 for this one. I think that is a good bet in what is Berdych's first match in some time. Their only 2 previous meetings have come in Canada and both went to Berdych but in three sets so 4.1 is not without a chance.
Davydenko v Andujar: Nikolay scored a nice win over Gilles Simon in round one and he will have more than enough for Pablo Andujar here. I won't recommend a bet however as he is still Nikolay Davydenko and you would want your head examined to back him pre-match!
Youzhny v Raonic: this is a tricky one. Raonic is certainly still not back to his best and I think Youzhny might just be some value here @ 2.2 on the exchanges. Youzhny has been playing so well. He won Gstaad and beat Melzer in straights here yesterday. It might be worth taking on the home crowd and Milos the Missile in this one.
Granollers v Murray: Granollers surprised everyone with a straight sets win over Dimitrov in round one having just arrived from a clay court title in Kitzbuhel. He will give Murray a decent test and I would go with the Spaniard to cover whatever the game handicap is (probably +6.5). He will probably be good value to get a set too and he has beaten Murray already this year, albeit on clay. Murray will have a match on his hands here.
Enjoy the tennis :)
Tuesday 6 August 2013
Coupe Rogers Tuesday
There are a mountain of matches today so just gonna cut straight to the chase and throw up my thoughts for selected matches today:
Benneteau v Janowicz: JJ should win if both fit but there are doubts over his bicep and he hasn't played since Wimbledon so if I was to have a bet in this one it would be the Frenchman @ 3.15 on Betfair where you will get paid if there is a retirement once the first set is complete.
LLodra v Bogomolov: Llodra can be had @ 1.8 here which seems good given he is 2-0 against Bogomolov. If Llodra tries here, he wins. Simple as that.
Fognini v Baghdatis: This one could be the match of the day. Given his performances on clay over the last month, Fognini's confidence should be sky high. Having said that, Baghdatis had a great run last week in DC and that should stand him in good stead for this one and just give him the edge to push past Fognini on hard courts. 1.7 is slighly lower than I would have hoped for but maybe hold on until in-play for a better price.
Isner v Pospisil: Isner will have too much for Vasek Pospisil and 1.5 is backable. Isner had a long week in DC last week but people might not realise that Pospisil was on his own title run in Vancouver Challenger where to beat Dan Evans from a break down in the third. Isner to come through.
Youzhny v Melzer: not sure if he will beat him or not but 7/2 is a massive price for Melzer here. The Austrian began working with a new coach last week and I think his motivation should be pretty high. This one is attractive purely because of the price.
Raonic v Chardy: Raonic has been stinking out the place lately. His form has been less than woeful. If he shows up he should win this but if he is under par he won't beat Chardy who is a bit of value @ 3.75.
Dancevic v Lu: Dancevic is one of the home hopes here but his best years are behind him and Lu is a danger these days. Lu has been great in qualifying and 1.7 is a decent price.
They are all the selections for today. Knock yourself out!
Benneteau v Janowicz: JJ should win if both fit but there are doubts over his bicep and he hasn't played since Wimbledon so if I was to have a bet in this one it would be the Frenchman @ 3.15 on Betfair where you will get paid if there is a retirement once the first set is complete.
LLodra v Bogomolov: Llodra can be had @ 1.8 here which seems good given he is 2-0 against Bogomolov. If Llodra tries here, he wins. Simple as that.
Fognini v Baghdatis: This one could be the match of the day. Given his performances on clay over the last month, Fognini's confidence should be sky high. Having said that, Baghdatis had a great run last week in DC and that should stand him in good stead for this one and just give him the edge to push past Fognini on hard courts. 1.7 is slighly lower than I would have hoped for but maybe hold on until in-play for a better price.
Isner v Pospisil: Isner will have too much for Vasek Pospisil and 1.5 is backable. Isner had a long week in DC last week but people might not realise that Pospisil was on his own title run in Vancouver Challenger where to beat Dan Evans from a break down in the third. Isner to come through.
Youzhny v Melzer: not sure if he will beat him or not but 7/2 is a massive price for Melzer here. The Austrian began working with a new coach last week and I think his motivation should be pretty high. This one is attractive purely because of the price.
Raonic v Chardy: Raonic has been stinking out the place lately. His form has been less than woeful. If he shows up he should win this but if he is under par he won't beat Chardy who is a bit of value @ 3.75.
Dancevic v Lu: Dancevic is one of the home hopes here but his best years are behind him and Lu is a danger these days. Lu has been great in qualifying and 1.7 is a decent price.
They are all the selections for today. Knock yourself out!
Sunday 4 August 2013
Coupe Rogers 2013 - Montreal
Hi again to everyone after a nice long break fom the blog! I haven't done a blog entry since the Wimbledon final where Murray beat Djokovic (a winning pick from that day's blog actually!). Since then I have begun a new job and so, as a result of that and other time constraints I have decided that I will be doing this blog only for Masters 1000s and Grand Slams in the future. I was considering totally packing it in but it seems some people still like to read it so that's good enough for me!
Here are my thoughts for the Coupe Rogers in Montreal this week. Let's look at the draw first for outright purposes and then pick some match winners:
Top half: this is the easier passage for the top players in terms of overall strength in depth. In the first quarter, Djokovic looks like he will have a trouble-free passage to the semi finals and hence the reason why he is 6/4 favourite for the tournament. Bernard Tomic represents the first test for Novak, followed by Denis Istomin (who I fancy to take out Tipsy) and then Kei Nishikori (who was disappointing to say the least in Washington) or Richard Gasquet. I fancy Djokovic to take his place in the semi final at the very least.
The second quarter houses Rafa Nadal and again, I think he will make it through to take on Nole in the semis. Nadal might have it more difficult than Nole. His passage through will probably be: Malisse, Janowicz, and Tommy Haas or Stan the Man. Janowicz represents a serious threat to Rafa but he is just recovering from a bicep injury and I think this tournament might be a few weeks early for him. Nadal and Nole to meet in the semis.
Bottom half: this is a much more difficult half in terms of overall quality in my book. There is danger everywhere. In the third quarter of the draw, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer are likely to do battle for a place in the semis. Berdych is not guarenteed to make it that far though with Kevin Anderson and John Isner standing in his path. Ferrer looks pretty safe to make it.
Finally, in the fourth and by far the strongest quarter, Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro are joined by the likes of Youzhny, Melzer, Raonic, Fognini, Baghdatis, Lopez, Granollers, Dimitrov, and Gulbis!! An absolutely phenomenal quarter. In the end, I see Murray progressing but there are some seriously good matches in store in this one. I think Del Po should make it as far as Murray but I think his week-long title exploits in Washington hurt his chances here and so I am pretty much ruling him out of the outright betting for that reason only.
So, my draw analysis sees Nole v Rafa in one semi and Ferrer v Murray in the other, pretty much going with the rankings. I think Rafa has a serious chance of taking out Djokovic - this is one of his favourite tournaments which he has won twice in the past. He arrived here a full week early to get used to the conditions and to practice on court. He has even entered the doubles with Pablo Andujar to try get in some match practice before his singles. I don't know right now if he will beat Djokovic or not but his odds of 7/1 represent outstanding value (he opened at 9/1) while I wouldn't touch Djokovic @ 6/4 to be honest. I think Murray will get through the other side and 11/4 isn't a bad price but I think Rafa's odds are more appealing. In order, my value outright bets are Nadal @ 7/1, Murray @ 11/4, and then for a dark horse or two I would choose Raonic @ 80/1 and Del Potro @ 8/1 just on the off-chance that Washington hasn't affected him!
Who's hot: Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Istomin, Del Potro, Isner, Granollers, Fognini, Baghdatis
Who's cold: Llodra, Tipsarevic, Nishikori, Bellucci, Malisse, Dolgopolov, Melzer, Raonic
Who's a clown: Fernando Verdasco
Monday's matches:
Tomic v Mayer: I expect Tomic to come through this one, he had a decent showing in Washington and 4/7 is actually a very decent price in my book. One of the better bets for Monday.
Gulbis v Lopez: 8/13 is the best you can get on Gulbis here which even I can't recommend! I think he should win - US hard courts tend to be kind to my main man and I can't stand Lopez. I also think Gulbis should match up well to him but I won't back him at these prohibitive odds. I also won't back Lopez!
Istomin v Tipsarevic: Even though I expect Istomin to win this match, I am a bit suprised that he is marginal favourite, given the difference in rankings. I think he looked fantastic in DC though, and lost a close one to Anderson which he should have won. He looked great against Lu as well and Tipsarevic has just come from European clay. His schedule must have been organised by a circus clown or Dougal Maguire - he went from hard court in Bogota to clay in Switzerland, and now back to hard court in North America. Istomin will give him his medicine tomorrow. Hopefully.
Seppi v Rosol: Seppi will beat Rosol and 2/5 is not a bad price. Rosol is wild and Seppi should be a nightmare opponent for him.
Klizan v Bellucci: Klizan is 4/6 to beat Bellucci and I think he will. Bellucci has more talent in my opinion but he's another clown who can't take advantange of it and who has played more clay than he should recently. Klizan to progress
Kohlschreiber v Paire: I like Kohlschreiber to win this one. Benoit Paire is one of the most irritating players on tour. Look at his performance v Kubot at Wimbledon this year if you want to see what I mean. Probably the biggest clown of all. His backhand is sublime to be fair but his forehand is absolutely pathetic! Club level. Kohlschreiber should take care of business and I will back him @ 5/6 for this one. A good price again.
Levine v Malisse: I think Malisse is decent value here at 4/6. He said this week that he will be retiring soon if he doesn't improve his ranking. He gets a shot at Rafa if he wins this one and Levine is over-rated. He is nothing special. I expect Malisse to turn his form around in this one.
Zemlja v Dodig: Dodig is too short here @ 4/9 and Zemlja is actually decent value @ 2/1. I think it will be a close match, Dodig should shade it but if it's value you're after then Zemlja is your man.
There are some other matches tomorrow but the qualifiers haven't been placed in the draw yet so we have no idea who plays who yet so for the moment these are the only matches we know.
Enjoy the tennis and best of luck. I'll be here all week! :)
Here are my thoughts for the Coupe Rogers in Montreal this week. Let's look at the draw first for outright purposes and then pick some match winners:
Top half: this is the easier passage for the top players in terms of overall strength in depth. In the first quarter, Djokovic looks like he will have a trouble-free passage to the semi finals and hence the reason why he is 6/4 favourite for the tournament. Bernard Tomic represents the first test for Novak, followed by Denis Istomin (who I fancy to take out Tipsy) and then Kei Nishikori (who was disappointing to say the least in Washington) or Richard Gasquet. I fancy Djokovic to take his place in the semi final at the very least.
The second quarter houses Rafa Nadal and again, I think he will make it through to take on Nole in the semis. Nadal might have it more difficult than Nole. His passage through will probably be: Malisse, Janowicz, and Tommy Haas or Stan the Man. Janowicz represents a serious threat to Rafa but he is just recovering from a bicep injury and I think this tournament might be a few weeks early for him. Nadal and Nole to meet in the semis.
Bottom half: this is a much more difficult half in terms of overall quality in my book. There is danger everywhere. In the third quarter of the draw, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer are likely to do battle for a place in the semis. Berdych is not guarenteed to make it that far though with Kevin Anderson and John Isner standing in his path. Ferrer looks pretty safe to make it.
Finally, in the fourth and by far the strongest quarter, Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro are joined by the likes of Youzhny, Melzer, Raonic, Fognini, Baghdatis, Lopez, Granollers, Dimitrov, and Gulbis!! An absolutely phenomenal quarter. In the end, I see Murray progressing but there are some seriously good matches in store in this one. I think Del Po should make it as far as Murray but I think his week-long title exploits in Washington hurt his chances here and so I am pretty much ruling him out of the outright betting for that reason only.
So, my draw analysis sees Nole v Rafa in one semi and Ferrer v Murray in the other, pretty much going with the rankings. I think Rafa has a serious chance of taking out Djokovic - this is one of his favourite tournaments which he has won twice in the past. He arrived here a full week early to get used to the conditions and to practice on court. He has even entered the doubles with Pablo Andujar to try get in some match practice before his singles. I don't know right now if he will beat Djokovic or not but his odds of 7/1 represent outstanding value (he opened at 9/1) while I wouldn't touch Djokovic @ 6/4 to be honest. I think Murray will get through the other side and 11/4 isn't a bad price but I think Rafa's odds are more appealing. In order, my value outright bets are Nadal @ 7/1, Murray @ 11/4, and then for a dark horse or two I would choose Raonic @ 80/1 and Del Potro @ 8/1 just on the off-chance that Washington hasn't affected him!
Who's hot: Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Istomin, Del Potro, Isner, Granollers, Fognini, Baghdatis
Who's cold: Llodra, Tipsarevic, Nishikori, Bellucci, Malisse, Dolgopolov, Melzer, Raonic
Who's a clown: Fernando Verdasco
Monday's matches:
Tomic v Mayer: I expect Tomic to come through this one, he had a decent showing in Washington and 4/7 is actually a very decent price in my book. One of the better bets for Monday.
Gulbis v Lopez: 8/13 is the best you can get on Gulbis here which even I can't recommend! I think he should win - US hard courts tend to be kind to my main man and I can't stand Lopez. I also think Gulbis should match up well to him but I won't back him at these prohibitive odds. I also won't back Lopez!
Istomin v Tipsarevic: Even though I expect Istomin to win this match, I am a bit suprised that he is marginal favourite, given the difference in rankings. I think he looked fantastic in DC though, and lost a close one to Anderson which he should have won. He looked great against Lu as well and Tipsarevic has just come from European clay. His schedule must have been organised by a circus clown or Dougal Maguire - he went from hard court in Bogota to clay in Switzerland, and now back to hard court in North America. Istomin will give him his medicine tomorrow. Hopefully.
Seppi v Rosol: Seppi will beat Rosol and 2/5 is not a bad price. Rosol is wild and Seppi should be a nightmare opponent for him.
Klizan v Bellucci: Klizan is 4/6 to beat Bellucci and I think he will. Bellucci has more talent in my opinion but he's another clown who can't take advantange of it and who has played more clay than he should recently. Klizan to progress
Kohlschreiber v Paire: I like Kohlschreiber to win this one. Benoit Paire is one of the most irritating players on tour. Look at his performance v Kubot at Wimbledon this year if you want to see what I mean. Probably the biggest clown of all. His backhand is sublime to be fair but his forehand is absolutely pathetic! Club level. Kohlschreiber should take care of business and I will back him @ 5/6 for this one. A good price again.
Levine v Malisse: I think Malisse is decent value here at 4/6. He said this week that he will be retiring soon if he doesn't improve his ranking. He gets a shot at Rafa if he wins this one and Levine is over-rated. He is nothing special. I expect Malisse to turn his form around in this one.
Zemlja v Dodig: Dodig is too short here @ 4/9 and Zemlja is actually decent value @ 2/1. I think it will be a close match, Dodig should shade it but if it's value you're after then Zemlja is your man.
There are some other matches tomorrow but the qualifiers haven't been placed in the draw yet so we have no idea who plays who yet so for the moment these are the only matches we know.
Enjoy the tennis and best of luck. I'll be here all week! :)
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