Hi again to everyone after a nice long break fom the blog! I haven't done a blog entry since the Wimbledon final where Murray beat Djokovic (a winning pick from that day's blog actually!). Since then I have begun a new job and so, as a result of that and other time constraints I have decided that I will be doing this blog only for Masters 1000s and Grand Slams in the future. I was considering totally packing it in but it seems some people still like to read it so that's good enough for me!
Here are my thoughts for the Coupe Rogers in Montreal this week. Let's look at the draw first for outright purposes and then pick some match winners:
Top half: this is the easier passage for the top players in terms of overall strength in depth. In the first quarter, Djokovic looks like he will have a trouble-free passage to the semi finals and hence the reason why he is 6/4 favourite for the tournament. Bernard Tomic represents the first test for Novak, followed by Denis Istomin (who I fancy to take out Tipsy) and then Kei Nishikori (who was disappointing to say the least in Washington) or Richard Gasquet. I fancy Djokovic to take his place in the semi final at the very least.
The second quarter houses Rafa Nadal and again, I think he will make it through to take on Nole in the semis. Nadal might have it more difficult than Nole. His passage through will probably be: Malisse, Janowicz, and Tommy Haas or Stan the Man. Janowicz represents a serious threat to Rafa but he is just recovering from a bicep injury and I think this tournament might be a few weeks early for him. Nadal and Nole to meet in the semis.
Bottom half: this is a much more difficult half in terms of overall quality in my book. There is danger everywhere. In the third quarter of the draw, Tomas Berdych and David Ferrer are likely to do battle for a place in the semis. Berdych is not guarenteed to make it that far though with Kevin Anderson and John Isner standing in his path. Ferrer looks pretty safe to make it.
Finally, in the fourth and by far the strongest quarter, Andy Murray and Juan Martin Del Potro are joined by the likes of Youzhny, Melzer, Raonic, Fognini, Baghdatis, Lopez, Granollers, Dimitrov, and Gulbis!! An absolutely phenomenal quarter. In the end, I see Murray progressing but there are some seriously good matches in store in this one. I think Del Po should make it as far as Murray but I think his week-long title exploits in Washington hurt his chances here and so I am pretty much ruling him out of the outright betting for that reason only.
So, my draw analysis sees Nole v Rafa in one semi and Ferrer v Murray in the other, pretty much going with the rankings. I think Rafa has a serious chance of taking out Djokovic - this is one of his favourite tournaments which he has won twice in the past. He arrived here a full week early to get used to the conditions and to practice on court. He has even entered the doubles with Pablo Andujar to try get in some match practice before his singles. I don't know right now if he will beat Djokovic or not but his odds of 7/1 represent outstanding value (he opened at 9/1) while I wouldn't touch Djokovic @ 6/4 to be honest. I think Murray will get through the other side and 11/4 isn't a bad price but I think Rafa's odds are more appealing. In order, my value outright bets are Nadal @ 7/1, Murray @ 11/4, and then for a dark horse or two I would choose Raonic @ 80/1 and Del Potro @ 8/1 just on the off-chance that Washington hasn't affected him!
Who's hot: Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Istomin, Del Potro, Isner, Granollers, Fognini, Baghdatis
Who's cold: Llodra, Tipsarevic, Nishikori, Bellucci, Malisse, Dolgopolov, Melzer, Raonic
Who's a clown: Fernando Verdasco
Monday's matches:
Tomic v Mayer: I expect Tomic to come through this one, he had a decent showing in Washington and 4/7 is actually a very decent price in my book. One of the better bets for Monday.
Gulbis v Lopez: 8/13 is the best you can get on Gulbis here which even I can't recommend! I think he should win - US hard courts tend to be kind to my main man and I can't stand Lopez. I also think Gulbis should match up well to him but I won't back him at these prohibitive odds. I also won't back Lopez!
Istomin v Tipsarevic: Even though I expect Istomin to win this match, I am a bit suprised that he is marginal favourite, given the difference in rankings. I think he looked fantastic in DC though, and lost a close one to Anderson which he should have won. He looked great against Lu as well and Tipsarevic has just come from European clay. His schedule must have been organised by a circus clown or Dougal Maguire - he went from hard court in Bogota to clay in Switzerland, and now back to hard court in North America. Istomin will give him his medicine tomorrow. Hopefully.
Seppi v Rosol: Seppi will beat Rosol and 2/5 is not a bad price. Rosol is wild and Seppi should be a nightmare opponent for him.
Klizan v Bellucci: Klizan is 4/6 to beat Bellucci and I think he will. Bellucci has more talent in my opinion but he's another clown who can't take advantange of it and who has played more clay than he should recently. Klizan to progress
Kohlschreiber v Paire: I like Kohlschreiber to win this one. Benoit Paire is one of the most irritating players on tour. Look at his performance v Kubot at Wimbledon this year if you want to see what I mean. Probably the biggest clown of all. His backhand is sublime to be fair but his forehand is absolutely pathetic! Club level. Kohlschreiber should take care of business and I will back him @ 5/6 for this one. A good price again.
Levine v Malisse: I think Malisse is decent value here at 4/6. He said this week that he will be retiring soon if he doesn't improve his ranking. He gets a shot at Rafa if he wins this one and Levine is over-rated. He is nothing special. I expect Malisse to turn his form around in this one.
Zemlja v Dodig: Dodig is too short here @ 4/9 and Zemlja is actually decent value @ 2/1. I think it will be a close match, Dodig should shade it but if it's value you're after then Zemlja is your man.
There are some other matches tomorrow but the qualifiers haven't been placed in the draw yet so we have no idea who plays who yet so for the moment these are the only matches we know.
Enjoy the tennis and best of luck. I'll be here all week! :)
No comments:
Post a Comment