February 1st 2013 Davis Cup Friday

So we move onto something different from regular tournament play this weekend as we visit the Davis Cup for the first time this in 2013. There are some interesting first round clashes taking place in the World Group, but it is the Spanish team's trip to Canada that catches my eye the most. Spain are down to the bare bones here, as much as a Spanish team can be. They are without Nadal, Ferrer, Almagro, Verdasco, or Feliciano Lopez. And while they do still have their World Tour Finals doubles-winning team of Granollers and Marc Lopez (who are their best doubles partnership in my opinion) available, they are left with Granollers and Albert Ramos to play the singles rubbers. I am suprised they opted for Ramos ahead of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is a far more accomplished player indoors but it just goes to show the strength in depth of Spanish tennis that this tie is still in the balance, essentially with their "C" team! To compound matters more for them, the Canucks have, unsurprisingly, gone for a fast indoor surface to suit thier atomic serving machine, Milos Raonic. They are also staging the tie on the west coast of Canada, in Vancouver, thus maximising the flying time for the Spanish team. Completing the Canadian team is Frank Dancevic, a very limited singles player who is scheduled to play on the first and last days, and in the doubles, the youthful Vasek Pospisil and the veteran Daniel Nestor.

Taking all these considerations into account, the bookies are making Canada the favourites, which is fair enough, given the home advantage and the fact that they really only need one upset out of three matches. But the way I see it panning out, I have Raonic to beat Ramos, Granollers to beat Dancevic, leaving the tie at 1-1 overnight, Spain winning the doubles, Raonic beating Granollers, and then, in the decider, Dancevic losing to Albert Ramos. I think Spain will pull it out of the bag, 3-2. They are certainly worth a bet and are my recommendation at 2.70 on the exchanges.

Elsewhere, Germany (2.30) can beat Argentina who are severely depleted, Switzerland (2.34) can win at home to the Czechs, but only if Stan Wawrinka can maintain his AO form and beat Berdych in a deciding rubber on Sunday, and Italy (1.60) will beat Croatia at home on red dirt. Notably, in that encounter, Fabio Fognini is worth a bet at 3.00 tomorrow to beat Marin Cilic over five sets.

Recommended bets:

Spain to beat Canada 3pts @ 2.70
Fabio Fognini to beat Marin Cilic 1pt @ 3.00

Australian Open 2013 Review

Finally the 2013 Australian Open has come to an end. From a betting point of view it was a poor tournament and I am the first to admit that. That might seem hard to get the head around considering every single top seed won outright in both mens' and womens' singles and doubles. Of all the winners, Djokovic was probably the most likely to have been tipped beforehand but I think just a shade over even money to win 7 matches in a row is a bit too low and I couldn't tip that given the standard of men's tennis right now. Having said that, if this tournament has proven anything, it is that Djokovic is beyond doubt the greatest tennis player alive today. He is inpenetrable. He did not find his A game until the end of the second set against Murray, but once he did, it was curtains. In fact, his hardest, stiffest test of the entire tournament came against Stanislas Wawrinka (pictured above) who played almost the perfect game against the Serb.

My criticism of Murray, (and I am slow to criticise a player of his standard and ability), is that he didn't come into the net nearly enough against Djokovic. It was incredibly frustrating. He thought he could beat the Serb from the back of the court, and even when he was being so obviously outplayed in the third and fourth sets, he still stubbornly refused to change it up. Look back at the Wawrinka stats - in his match against Djokovic, he approached the net 58 times. Murray came in 15 times! That says absolutely everything for me. Murray was, at times, hitting balls deep and hard to the very corners of the court, and, with Djokovic stretched to his absolute limits just to barely slice the ball over the net back into play, Murray still didn't approach the net to take the prize he had earned, seemingly content to allow Djokovic to regroup and for the rally to become neutral once again. That is madness. I am surprised and disappointed at that and I hope himself and Lendl figure it out pretty quickly. They saw how Wawrinka hurt Djokovic. They had the opportunity to listen to what Radek Stepanek said in the second round after pushing Djokovic close in 2 of their 3 sets. He said that the only way to threaten him was to come into the net and change things up. He said that if you engage in baseline rallies with him, no matter who you are, "he will get you eventually"! It is not rocket science. Hit the ball hard and deep to the corners, and follow it in!

Anyway, we won't worry about the losses we endured. It is a long season and there are about 48 weeks of it left! Next up is Davis Cup next weekend so I will do a blog on that tomorrow or the day after. In the meantime, congratulations to Djokovic and his camp. He truly is the best around right now. I am pretty sure he will win the French this year to complete his career Grand Slam and is available at 2.84 to do so. He won't be that price by the time the tournament begins!

Talk soon, TB.

Australian Open 2013 Men's final Murray v Djokovic

And so we have finally reached the climax of the 2013 Australian Open with the clash of the two main forces in men's tennis, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. I suggested on this blog in my tournament preview that this would be the final and that these two players have separated themselves from the rest of the field and so it has come to pass. Murray and Djokovic have both looked fantastic, and both have seen off some tough moments on the way to the final. Djokovic, in particular, had a very narrow escape from his 5 setter with Stan Wawrinka in which he was very close to elimination. Murray was forced to five against Federer but never looked like losing and it was almost inevitable that he would progress at the Swiss' expense.

Tomorrow's match is a very exciting prospect and one which is very hard to call. I don't believe either man fears the other but there is a massive mutual respect. Both players are so solid in all aspects and I have put some thought into who wins each aspect of the game. I think Murray comes out on top in first serve, and just about in the backhand and volleying departments. I think Djokovic edges it on the second serve and on the forehand, while I would rate their return of serve and their fitness/strength levels as pretty much equal. They both move incredibly well but if it comes down to who has more self-belief and confidence, I reckon the Serb slightly edges it there. Having said all that, I won't be surprised whichever man prevails. The bookmakers are going for Djokovic and probably rightly so but Murray has won their last slam encounter (US Open Final) and, in Ivan Lendl, he has someone in his corner who can push him over the winning line and help him remain calm in the most important moments.

I tipped Murray at 4.70 before this tournament began and I prefer him to Djokovic as a person and as a player. The Scot is my favourite player and I am giving him a genuine shot at the title here. The first set will be so important for him and I hope he can take it. Djokovic can be a very dangerous front runner if he gets a lead and so I hope Murray can be aggressive from the very first ball. He needs to serve well and to come to the net when the opportunity arises, which is something he needs to do more of in my opinion, particularly against Djokovic. I am going to take Murray in the betting stakes at 2.76 in what is a pretty even match. I also think this is going to go the whole five sets and so will take Murray to win 3-2 at 7.40 as well. Enjoy the final and C'mon Andy!

Recommended bets:

Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic 3pts @ 2.78
Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic 3-2 2pts @ 7.40

Federer v Murray Review + Women's Final

Looking back at today's semi-final match between Murray and Federer, I think the right man won, but it took a little longer than necessary to do it. Murray came out on top in all the important statistics, none more so than the scoreboard. Apart  from his wobble trying to serve out the match at 2-1, 6-5, Murray was impressive. I actually believe Federer was very unsporting in that moment when he clearly said something inaudible to the Scot when he was trying to serve out the match. It definitely affected Murray and let Federer back into the set, ultimately pushing the match to a fifth. Federer never looked likely to win this match, a point emphasized by the fact that Murray never touched odds against all day. My bet at 2.00 was never matched, which is fine. I still believe 1.70 was too small for an SP.

Murray will recover just fine for the final and I give him a good shot against Djokovic. But that's for another day. Early betting for the final looks like 1.60 for Nole and 2.60 for Andy which seems about fair. Murray has certainly improved his forehand but if I was him I would work on the volley and the second serve tomorrow - both of which need to be on song for the final match on Sunday morning at 08.30 Irish time.

For tomorrow's women's final, I think Azarenka looks like good value at 1.80 to beat Li Na. I think Azarenka will come out on top, probably over three sets, and am willing to back a women's match for a change given the fact that it is a grand slam final and I think there is value to be had!

Recommended bets:

Victoria Azarenka to beat Li Na 3pts @ 1.80

Aussie Open Semi Final 2

The second men's semi final of the 2013 Australian Open sees Scotland's world number 3 Andy Murray pitted against Switzerland's world number 2 Roger Federer. Murray carries a 10-9 head to head record in his favour into this match but that can be countered by the fact that he has never beaten the Swiss maestro on the biggest stage of all - a grand slam. I think Murray is going to end that stat tonight. He has looked supreme so far this year and his only real examination of form was against Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane final, which he passed with flying colours. He certainly hasn't been tested yet in this tournament, (indeed he hasn't dropped a set), but the standard of opposition is going to rise markedly tomorrow! Federer, to give him his due, has been terrific in the first four rounds. He was in imperious form against Tomic and Raonic in particular and outclassed Tsonga in the QF when it really mattered in that final fifth set. I respect Federer's game and acknowledge that he beat Murray the last time they played - in the O2 in London back in November, but this is a hungry, refreshed, and more confident Murray. The slower court surface will work more to Murray's advantage and so will the best of five format, given Murray's unbelievable fitness and endurance levels, surpassed only by Novak Djokovic in my opinion.

Speaking of Djokovic, he turned in an incredible performance today in disposing David Ferrer, but it was nothing more than I expected. (See yesterday's blog). Djokovic was always going to dominate this one - it is just a horrible match up for the Spaniard. I won't be reading too much into it in terms of the final, i.e. I don't think it will have any bearing on a Murray v Djokovic if that is the final we are to have. Ferrer can't hurt Djokovic the way a Murray or a Federer can. That's just the way it is - tennis is all about match-ups and this just isn't a good one for David Ferrer.

So, while Novak is at home with his feet up watching Andy and Roger slug it out, I have no doubt who he will be supporting. Himself and Murray are much closer than himself and Federer but have no doubt that it is the veteran Swiss, the greatest of all time, that Djokovic would rather face in Sunday's final. Djokovic knows that Murray can live with him over five sets and match him in both tennis and fitness terms. I just don't believe Federer can anymore over five sets. If Federer can't beat Djokovic indoors over 3 sets (WTF last November), then what chance has he on slower courts, outdoors, over five sets? Murray proved he could do it by beating the Serb in a somewhat bizarre US Open Final last September and I am quietly confident that he can do it again here.

In terms of betting tomorrow, I am going for Murray to win the match but am not willing to take the 1.7 on offer on the exchanges. I don't believe that represents value given Federer's head to head in the past in grand slams versus Murray so I am going to trade at 2.00 and hope that my bet is matched early in-running by some eager Federe fans. If not, no problem. I just think Murray should be a little longer than 1.7 to begin the match. Elsewhere, Federer represents some value in the most aces category at 3.35 to have more aces than the Scot.

Recommended bets:

Murray to beat Federer 5pts (max bet) @  possible 2.00 BIR or 1.70 pre match

Aussie Open Mens Semi Final 1

So Federer came through on the 3-2 scoreline that I predicted but Chardy couldn't oblige with the one set I needed to bring up the 25/1 double! Anyway, Federer was properly tested for the first time this tournament and looked like the second best player on court for long periods. I have no doubt that Andy Murray is going to beat him on Friday morning (Irish time) probably in  4 sets, but I was hoping Murray would be available at odds longer than the 1.7 offered on the exchanges. I am going to wait until Friday and bide my time and hopefully some money will come for Federer in the meantime, pushing out Murray's price - but unless something drastic happens on the exchanges, I will be backing Murray at 2.00 and hoping for someone to match it in-play. Murray is too solid for Federer on these courts over five sets, and as I said at the beginning of these championships, Murray and Djokovic have detached themselves from the rest of the mens tour as the real creme de la creme! In fact, Stan Wawrinka has probably had the performance of the entire tournament.

There is not much to see in tomorrow's semi final between Ferrer and Djokovic. Djokovic will out-Ferrer Ferrer for want of a better expression and it will be a routine rout as usual. I expect Djokovic to win in three, with one set being close. This is just a horrible match-up for the Spaniard and one that there are no attractive betting markets. If you can find good odds on a Murray/Djokovic final, take them. Other than that, keep your cash in your pocket this time.

No recommended bet.

23/01/13 Aussie Open QF night 2

 

So yesterday went with the script pretty much as I said. I went for Djokovic in 4 and Ferrer to beat Almagro "no matter how well Almagro plays"! Almagro served for the match three times and despite what he says, he suffered the kind of chokes that only he can. He is a mental midget and will never win a tournament of any importance. People were questioning whether his loss was any different to Wawrinkas' last week - it was completely different. Wawrinka lost while playing amazing, aggressive, pinpoint, ballsy tennis. AlMUGro lost playing pathetic choke tennis - there is a difference. Despite what the rankings say, Wawrinka is a class above this chump! Elsewhere, Djokovic receovered well from his 5 set humdinger with Stan the Man and looked good against Berdych, who didn't quite approach the net and mix things up quite as much as he should have. (Maybe he should have spoken to his friend Radek a little more)

Moving onto tonight's tennis - I see Murray taking out Chardy in 4 sets. Chardy has been impressive and makes the most of his talents. He smashes that forehand and is not afraid to follow it in to the net. He is an intelligent player and more of the lesser pros need to take a leaf out of his book. Chardy realises he can't mix it with these top guys playing from the baseline so he smashed that forehand and follows it in. Simple. The fact that he is very adept with the volley doesn't hurt either. That said, expect Murray to share the opening two sets with him tonight before exposing the Frenchman's backhand and pulling away to win 3-1.
The last QF is the more difficult one to call. I am going to go with Federer 3-2 but I can genuinely see Tsonga winning it - just one of those feelings! He loves it around Melbourne Park, has made his only slam final here, is very motivated right now after the appointment of Roger Rasheed, and knows how to give the other Roger lots of trouble. If Tsonga comes out with his A game, this match could easily go in his direction. If both players come out with their A games, Fed will win but it will be close.

I have a very small double on tonight - Murray to beat Chardy 3 sets to 1 @ 31/10, and Federer to beat Tsonga 3 sets to 2 @ 11/2 (Boylesports) paying about 25/1 for the double. If you just want a single bet, go with Tsonga to beat Federer 1pt @ 6.10 (Betfair)

Aussie Open QF

this has turned into a woeful tipping tournament from me but i will persist with the blog nonetheless! didnt see any of last nights action but i believe federer was immense again. my next bet will be murray to take him out in the semis! 

tomoro ferrer will beat almagro no matter how well almagro plays, and djokovic will be recovered to beat berdych in 4. horrible match up for the czech!!

no recommended bets

21/01/13 Aussie open 4th rd

woeful week and any luck i've had has been bad. special mention for stan wawrinka today, would have been a thoroughly deserving winner. tomorrow take gasquet to beat tsonga and raonic to get a set from federer. seppi will beat chardy too but 1.6 is far too short.

recommended bets:
lay roger federer to beat milos raonic 3-0 2pts @ 1.85
richard gasquet to beat jo wilfried tsonga 2pts @ 2.6

20/01/2013 Aussie open day 7

terrible day again, tomic was easily good enough to take a set from federer especially the second set. 4-1 up in the breaker and threw it away. then monfils being the clown that he is failed to take his chances against simon, he resigned to playing simons horrible style of tennis and i thought he turned in an absolute pathetic performance.

we have some good matches tonight but i am only going for one bet. janko tipsarevic should be favourite against almagro in my opinion so i am more than happy to take 2.22 on the serb.

recommended bet: janko tipsarevic to beat nicolas almagro 2pts @ 2.22

19/01/2013 Aussie Open day 6

A bad day compounded by another bad day. All one can do is to persevere with their opinions and hope they are right. Verdasco was a mental midget against Anderson and Baghdatis never looked like getting a set against Ferrer. His groundstrokes just weren't big enough!

Anyway, moving onto day 6, I am going to go for Monfils in the all Gallic battle between himself and 'Gillou', Gilles Simon. It will be a close match, both can be quite cagey, both are excellent defenders, but Monfils has more strings to his bow and he is fantastic value at 2.6 on Betfair. Elsewhere, I think Bernard Tomic truly believes he is the man to stop Roger Federer. While I suppose he does have a chance given his early season form, I don't think he will beat Federer, but he is good enough to take a set and make it a close match.

Recommended Bets:
Gael Monfils to beat Gilles Simon 2pts @ 2.60
Lay Roger Federer to beat Bernard Tomic 3-0 2pts @ 1.88

18/01/2013 Australian Open Day 5

 
Very bad day yesterday, but bailed out by Monfils against Lu so still in the green, unfortunately not in the tipping department though! Anyway, very short blog tonight. Take Fernando Verdasco to beat Kevin Anderson. Verdasco looked class against Malisse, and loves it around Melbourne Park. I think he will beat the big serving Afrikaaner.

*Edit (22.51GMT) Was rushing earlier, but having had a little more time to think about tonight's matches, I am going to recommend one more bet for tonight and that is for Marcos Baghdatis, the adopted son of Melbourne, to take at least a set against Ferrer. Marcos has been in decent form and this tournament brings out the best in him. I remember he went two sets down to Ferrer here in 2009 or 2010 I believe and came back to win, spurred on by his legion of raucous fans! While I don't think he will beat the soon-to-be world number four, I also don't think Ferrer will beat my favourite player in straights. Lay Ferrer 3-0.

Recommended Bets:
Fernando Verdasco to beat Kevin Anderson 2pts @ 2.32
Lay David Ferrer to beat Marcos Baghdatis 3-0 2pts @ 2.00

17/01/2013 Australian Open Day 4

Yesterday was the best betting day so far in Melbourne with two from three and a profit of 2 points. Malisse looked lacklustre as he was outclassed in every department by a very much in-form Fernando Verdasco. Jurgen Melzer got the better of Roberto Bautista-Agut as predicted and Lacko gave us more than just the set we needed, indeed he nearly took the win against Janko Tipsarevic.

Moving onto day 4 Down Under, there are a couple of close matches in which I like a player, and then there are matches where I would like to pick the winner but won't as my brain is telling me the opposite to my heart! One that fits into the latter category is Istomin v Seppi. Istomin is 2.6 and has been in fantastic form, I really like his game and would love to tip him but won't because Seppi will probably just about win this one. They had a 5 set thriller in Wimbledon which Istomin won but I am going to leave the betting on this one, reluctantly! Elsewhere, I see Federer having a closer contest this time around and am happy to oppose him to win 3-0 at 1.55. Davydenko has come into this tournament looking in good form again and I'm pretty sure he can take a set from the great man. Likewise, but with slightly less confidence, I am going to also lay Juan Martin del Potro to win 3-0 against the in-form Benny Becker. Becker has a great serve and has been hitting well off both wings so I think 1.38 for a 3-0 DelPo win is far too short.Finally, I am back to match odds for the last two bets and will take Florian Mayer to upset Ricardis Berankis at 2.06. The talented Lithuanian is a joy to watch while Mayer, put simply, is not! But I think Mayer's experience on the big stage will matter here and any man who can beat Nadal is good enough for me! The last bet today is Marcel Granollers to beat Jeremy Chardy at odds of 1.83. He looked good against Zemlja and Chardy can be very touch and go.

Recommended bets:
Lay Roger Federer to beat Nikolay Davydenko 3-0 1pt @ 1.58
Lay Juan Martin del Potro to beat Benjamin Becker 3-0 1pt @ 1.38
Marcell Granollers to beat Jeremy Chardy 2pts @ 1.83
Florian Mayer to beat Ricardis Berankis 1pt @ 2.06

16/01/2013 Australian Open Day 3

So last night was a great night of tennis but a mediocre one from a tipping point of view. Sometimes the first round of a tournament can be like that so hopefully it will beonwards and upwards from here. Benoit Paire was very disappointing last night, he didn't even muster a challenge against Federer. Benny Becker, Denis Istomin, and Gael Monfils all came through as advised but Zemlja still didn't look himself while Klizan failed to ignite once more despite taking the second set. Davydenko actually got me out of jail on the betting front when he went out to 1.8 after losing the first set to Dudi Sela.

Moving onto day 3, I have toned it down from the 6 or 7 selections of the previous two nights to just three for tonight. I fancy Xavier Malisse to take out Fernando Verdasco like he did in Wimbledon last summer. Malisse's form is better than Verdasco's plus he played only three short sets in round one while Verdasco had to come from 2-1 down to Goffin to win in five. That will have a bearing. I know I said I would never again back Jurgen Melzer but that is exactly what I am going to do! He is 1.93 to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut, who I would have priced as a 6/4 or 7/4 outsider against the Austrian. Melzer looked excellent in his first round with the loss of just four games while Bautista-Agut, like his fellow Spaniard Verdasco, needed to go the distance to see off Fognini. I will take the 1.93 on Melzer. Finally, Lukas Lacko has been in inspired form and I fancy him to make a good match of it against Janko Tipsarevic so I am going to lay the Serb to win 3-0 at odds of 2.02.

Elsewhere, Murray and Del Potro both looked excellent in their first rounds and it will be a fantastic game in the QF if they end up facing each other.

Recommended bets:
Jurgen Melzer to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut 2pts @ 1.93
Xavier Malisse to beat Fernando Verdasco 1pt @ 2.4
Lay Janko Tipsarevic to beat Lukas Lacko 3-0 1pt @ 2.02

15/01/2013 Australian Open Day 2

So it was a wishy washy first day in Australia with 3 wins and 3 losses which is not really what we are after here and hopefully we can improve on day 2. Looking back on it now, two of the recommendations from day 1 were probably a bit silly, namely the Kukushkin one to get a set and the set betting prediction in Tipsarevic - Hewitt. It just emphasised the point that simply picking a winner in a two horse race is the way to go. (We were three from four in match odds markets with only Giraldo letting us down. Verdasco, Baker, and Bautista-Agut all obliged)

Looking back on the tennis from day one, (and I didn't see much of it myself due to work/time difference), all the favourites pretty much came through with the exception of Juan Monaco and that is one I am disappointed not to have recommended. He was hammered by Kuznetsov and was clearly still struggling with injury. There were a couple of five setters and some good performances, none more so than Julien Benneteau who knocked out the mercurial Grigor Dimitrov who will be very disappointed not to have made it past the first hurdle.

On day 2, I have made several selections again, mostly odds against, and one odds-on shot. I will take Benjamin Becker to overcome Bedene, Klizan to turn his form around against Daniel Brands, Stakhovsky to upset the odds against Berankis, Zemlja to beat his fever and Marcel Granollers, Gael Monfils to out-duel The Dog in what I expect to be a thriller, Istomin to hit through Sijsling, and finally Benoit Paire + 8.5 games against Federer in what will be the GOAT's season opener. To justify a couple of those selections quickly, I think Becker has been playing very well and has plenty of experience. Bedene is an up and comer also in good form but the bookies are being slightly generous here. Martin Klizan hasn't been in good form but I think the limelight of a Grand Slam might bring about a change in his fortunes and he can go the whole five sets against his 200kg+ opponent in searing heat no problem! Berankis is rightly the favourite against Stakhovsky but seems to constantly under-achieve and if Stakhovsky can serve well and be aggressive, then he has a wonderful chance. Istomin will beat Sjisling, probably with the odd break here and there and more than one tie-break, but I am willing to take 1.5 on it. Zemlja is a dark horse and was magnificent in Doha. Put simply, if he turns up here playing his A game, then he wins. He was sick for Brisbane but looks to have put that behind him now and I think will come through here against the inconsistant Spaniard. Monfils has all the capabilities to beat Dolgopolov in a match that, to be fair, could go either way, but Monfils is 6/4 and looked good taking out Haas in Sydney! Paire will give Federer more of a run around than most people believe, and I think will beat the 8.5 game handicap.

Recommended bets:
Benjamin Becker to beat Aljaz Bedene 1pt @ 2.26
Martin Klizan to beat Daniel Brands 1pt @ 2.28
Sergiy Stakhovsky to beat Ricardis Berankis 1pt @ 2.58
Denis Istomin to beat Igot Sjisling 2pts @ 1.5
Grega Zemlja to beat Marcel Granollers 1pt @ 2.5
Gael Monfils to beat Alexandr Dolgopolov 1pt @ 2.42
Benoit Paire +8.5 games to beat Roger Federer 1pt @ 2.1

Enjoy the tennis and please, feel free to leave some comments! Thanks for reading the blog.

14/01/13 Australian Open day 1

Having done the overall preview earlier, here are my day 1 selections. Jurgen Melzer has been playing rather poorly of late and is up against a wildly unpredictable player in mikhail kukushkin. The Kazakh has had health problems recently and will retire if he goes a set or two down so I'm going to lay  Melzer 3-0 here with that safety net in the back pocket. I fancy Fernando Verdasco to overcome David Goffin in what will be a close encounter. I think Santiago Giraldo is playing well enough to hit through Ryan Harrison over whom he already boasts a 2-0 record. I will take Brian Baker to open with a win over Bogomolov Jr., and i will certainly take the odds against on Roberto Bautista-Agut continuing his good form with a win over Fabio Fognini. I think Janko Tipsarevic will come through against Lleyton Hewitt but 1.69 is too short so i will take the Serb to take out Rusty 3-2 @ 6.4 instead!

Recommended bets:
lay Jurgen Melzer to win 3-0 against Kukushkin 1pt @ 2.28
Fernando Verdasco to beat David Goffin 1pt @ 1.8
Santiago Giraldo to beat Ryan Harrison 1pt @ 2.06
Brian Baker to beat Bogomolov Jr 1pt @ 1.83
Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Fabio Fognini 1pt @ 2.1
Janko Tipsarevic to beat Lleyton Hewitt 3-2 1pt @ 6.4

Australian Open 2013 Preview

 

So, we had a profitable week this week with Tomic winning yesterday and a good day with the semi finals the day before also. I mentioned Tomic outright at the start of the week so hopefully somebody took him at 6/1!

Anyway, onto Melbourne and my favourite Slam of the year. To cut it right down to the bone straight away, I see it as essentially a two horse race between Murray and Djokovic. That will be the final, it will be a close final, and it will be a final either player can win. These two have seperated themselves from the rest of the field in my opinion and both are in confident, relaxed mood ahead of what will be a big fortnight in their careers.

Looking at the draws, and starting in Q1, Djokovic will have it pretty much his own way until he meets either Berdych or Anderson in the QF. Expect Novak to come through his quarter with the loss of very few sets. Elsewhere in this quarter, some first round matches that catch the eye are Giraldo v Harrison, Goffin v Verdasco, and Fognini v Bautista-Agut. Stepanek v Troicki is also an interesting one but Troicki is in horrible form and Stepanek has been either injured or sick so no bet is recommended there.

Onto Q2, I expect it to go with the seedings again and for David Ferrer to set up a semi against Djokovic, but he won't have it all his own way. Ferrer will have to come through Rochus, Karlovic, Baghdatis, Nishikori, and Dimitrov just to make the semi and that route is fraught with danger and possible losses. Baghdatis, Nishikori, and Dimitrov, in particular are more than capable of upsetting the wily Spanish veteran. Interesting first round match ups here include Benneteau v Dimitrov and Hewitt v Tipsarevic, the match of the round!

I expect Andy Murray to come through Q3 and I actually think he will be far more comfortable in doing so than most people expect. His route is likely to be Haase, Smith, Mayer, Monfils, and Del Potro with only the latter two representing any sort of a challenge for the Scotsman. Monfils could be substituted here with Alexandr Dolgopolov but I have a feeling the Frenchman will upset the odds in their first round match-up. Even still, don't expect Murray to drop a set before he meets Del Potro who Murray will beat in 4 but that's for another day!! Notable first round match-ups here are Zemlja v Granollers, Robredo v Levine, and the afforementioned Dolgopolov v Monfils clash which will be an absolute cracker!

The 4th quarter is where all the fun is! Roger Federer has to be a worried man and I for one don't have him coming out of this quarter. He chose not to play any warm-up tournament which is his right, but I think even Kooyong or something like that would have done him the world of good. Remember, he hasn't played a competitive shot since Novak passed him down the line in London to take the WTF crown back in November. For Federer to take the title here in Melbourne, he would have to overcome Paire, Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic, Tsonga, Murray, and Djokovic in that order! For me he has no chance. I like Federer. He has an unbelievably impressive game. He has done it all. But he is on the way down while Murray and Djokovic et al are on the way up. Federer can't beat seven of these guys in a row over best of five in the searing Australian heat without having played one warm-up match first. To be fair to him, he has received a nightmare draw. Firstly, I expect him to drop a set to Paire, who is no slouch and is on the up and up. Then we have a very interesting clash with Davydenko who hit playstation mode for sustained periods in Doha the week before last and will be a serious danger to the Swiss. If he does come through that, then the red hot Tomic awaits with nothing to lose. A changing of the guard perhaps. Raonic will threaten to serve him off the court if he comes through Tomic, while Tsonga or Gasquet will be waiting with baited breath to face him should he reach the QF. So, as you can see, this is by far the most difficult quarter to call. It also contains players like Bellucci, Llodra, Haas, Klizan, Kohlschrieber, and Rosol and if someone held a gun to my head I still wouldn't like to predict who would come through it. In the end, it won't really matter as Andy Murray will win the semi against the Q4 winner but right now I don't know who will come through here - maybe Tsonga, Gasquet, or Tomic perhaps but I won't be backing it! Just suffice to say I don't think it will be Federer. Interesting first round clashes here include Tsonga v Llodra and Haas v Nieminen.

I will wait until this evening to make some first round betting selections but that is my thinking on the Australian Open. A Murray v Djokovic final is in store and as such, if you want an outright winner bet go for Murray @ 4.7 on Betfair. Laying Federer to win his quarter at 1.58 is also a good move and one I will be making.

Enjoy the next two weeks!!

12/01/2013 sydney

good profitable night last night with anderson and kohlschrieber winning, monfils wasnt at the races but not to worry, that was always only a punt. only one bet tonight, tomic to win sydney. will analyse AO draw tomorrow.

recommended bet: bernard tomic to beat kevin anderson 2pts @ 1.75 (betfair) sydney final

11/01/13

mixed results last night - malisse played well enough to win but was too aggressive on the biggest points, istomin was well and truly beaten, and monfils proved what a talent he is.

tonight, i am taking anderson to beat benneteau, i am taking kohlschreibrr to beat querrey, and i am havin a punt on monfils to beat ferrer because he is 5.2 on the exchanges in a match up he leads 3-0 head to head.

recommended bets: gael monfils to beat david ferrer 1pt @ 5.2 (betfair) and philipp kohlschrieber to beat sam querrey 1pt @ 2.54 (betfair) both auckland
kevin anderson to beat julian benneteau 2pts @ 1.69 (betfair) sydney

10/01/2013 Auckland and Sydney

So, we had a much more successful day today with Malisse taking out Santiago Giraldo and Istomin easing to victory over Verdasco. Although Baker lost to Jesse Levine, it was still a 4pt profit day! Moving onto Thursday at Auckland and Sydney, I was debating whether to stay away for a day or whatnot but I have been tempted thrice again! I fancy two of the Auckland QF's and one in Sydney. In Sydney, as you can probably tell by my picture above, I am sticking with the Istomin theme and going for the Uzbek to take out Kevin Anderson at 2.6 on Betfair. Istomin is in great shape and pushed Murray hard last week in Brisbane. He has beaten top players in the last week, and 2.6 is too big on a match that will be very close. Take Istomin to win.
In Auckland, I will stay with X Man Malisse again, who has been very good to me this week. This time he faces top seed Philipp Kohlschrieber but is 3.00 on the exchanges which seems too big. It is a pretty even match too where the Belgian is in good form and leads the head to head 2-1. I am also going to back Monfils can take out the veteran German-turned-Yank Tommy Haas at the attractive odds of 2.54 on Betfair. Monfils is coming back to himself and is obviously a good player but we will only go 1pt on this as Monfils is Monfils at the end of the day!

Recommended Bets:
Denis Istomin to beat Kevin Anderson 2pts @ 2.6 (Betfair) ATP Sydney
Xavier Malisse to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber 1pt @ 3.00 (Betfair) and
Gael Monfils to beat Tommy Haas 1pt @ 2.54 (Betfair) both ATP Auckland

09/01/13 sydney & auckland

apologies to anyone who followed yesterdays tips. soeda was pathetic and lorenzi was as bad as i knew he could be. i am more confident about today however and have selected three matches worth backing. xman will beat giraldo and i think istomin will hit through verdasco as he did at london2012. provided these work out ok i will then back brian baker to beat jesse levine

recommended bets: malisse to beat giraldo 2pts @ 2.2 (betfair) and istomin to beat verdasco 2pts @ 2.36 (betfair) both auckland.
also back brian baker to beat jesse levine 1pt @ 2.14 (betfair) atp sydney

08/01/2013 Auckland & Sydney

So we had a good day yesterday with Malisse ousting the out of sorts Klizan and Bellucci proving too hot for Goffin as predicted. I am going to be slightly bolder today and take three matches, just as we have a bit of profit to play around with and see what we can do!

I am taking two matches in Auckland and one in Sydney. Firstly, and the one I am most confident about, I will take Go Soeda to beat Santiago Giraldo at just under even money on betfair. I am also going to go against conventional wisdom and select Paolo Lorenzi to thwart Lukas Lacko. I am a big fan of Lacko and not a fan of Lorenzi at all but he seems to be playing very well and will be in with a fighting chance once he can get into a neutral position in the rallies. Lacko can be very hot and cold so I think Lorenzi is worth a speculative punt at 2.7. Finally, switching to Sydney for the last match, I have got to have some of the 3.5 available on Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Ryan Harrison. It will be a close match and if it goes to form the Spaniard will win - he knocked out Berdych en route to the Chennai final on Sunday where he took the first set from Tipsarevic and, provided the courts are to his liking, and the travel has been ok, he will take out the brash young American.

 Recommended bets:  Go Soeda to beat Santiago Giraldo 1pt @ 1.95 (Betfair)
Paolo Lorenzi to beat Lukas Lacko 1pt @ 2.7 (Betfair) both ATP Auckland.
Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Ryan Harrison 1pt @ 3.5 (Betfair) ATP Sydney

07/01/2013 auckland

very short blog tonight, going to take bellucci to overcome goffin and malisse to take out klizan who looked like a beginner last week.

i think tomic will win sydney and might have a small bet @ the 6/1 available on the exchanges.

recommended bets: malisse to beat klizan 1pt @2.32 (betfair) and bellucci to beat goffin 1pt @2.2 (betfair) both heineken open auckland

Week review Brisbane/Doha/Chennai

 

So what began as a very promising week betting wise turned into a very mediocre one a best. Cilic was a major disappointment and i think i will pretty much stay away from outright betting in future. I lost a couple of close matches like Baghdatis v Dimitrov and i didn't back some winners that i should have but I got a bit of luck with a voided bet when Kei looked certain to go down 2-0 to Murray yesterday so maybe things evened themselves out.

I hope anyone who backed Davydenko outright at 5/1 as i recommended Friday laid him off before the final as he had a major choke against Gasquet. Davydenko was a set and a break up and just stayed rooted to the baseline, determined to hit through Gasquet who was parked 8-10 feet behind his own baseline when a simple foray to the net after such exquisite approach shots would have yielded far more points and probably the title for the Ukranian-born Soviet.
Anyway, I think Murray will beat Dimitrov in the Brisbane final and Tipsy will beat the revelation of the week Raul Bautista-Agut.
Next week brings Sydney and Aukland and we will look more into that tomorrow. For me the week ended up exactly level, no profit, no loss - a couple too many in-running, spur-of-the-moment bets that should be best avoided and will be in future. I hbaby Fed but thats more of an interest bet and I won't recommend it.
Hope you all enjoyed the week's tennis. Until next week :)

05/01/2013 Brisbane

hi everyone. today was turning into a very bad betting day for me until nikolay davydenko saved my bacon by pulverising soon-to-be world number four david ferrer in doha to leave me with a slight profit for the day and a great chance to collect on yesterdays tip at 5/1 outright (he is now 1.66). marcos and kei won as i said but i hadnt backed them and instead plumped for melzer to get the better of dimitrov mainly because i thought 3.05 was too big. i will never back the austrian again. elsewhere, marin cilic disappointed me massively by losing in the chennai qfs to benoit paire. i picked cilic outright there and also backed him myself in running today when he was a set down - he won the second six one but flattered to deceive and went down 7-5 in the decider. to make matters worse i was out and about so didnt even get the chance to lay off the bet when he was a break up in the third.

anyway, looking forward to tomorrow and the weekend, i am recommending a bet in each of the brisbane semi finals tomorrow. i will take baghdatis at 2.2 to take out mini federer in the first semi. marcos has always been at home in australia and looks to be in super form now. my second tip is a lay and is to oppose andy murray 2-0 in set betting v kei nishikori in the second semi. he has a pretty poor record against the scot but looks in great shape while andy dropped a set to millman and was involved in a close tussle with istomin.

i think davydenko is in absolutely sublime form and i am delighted to have tipped him outright yesterday. he will beat gasquet but i wont back it as i have enough down at much bigger odds.

recommeded bets: baghdatis to beat dimitrov 1pt @ 2.2ish (betfair) and lay murray to beat nishikori 2-0 for a liability of 1pt @ 1.68 (betfair) both atp brisbane

04/01/2013 Brisbane and doha

sitting in a hotel foyer in edinburgh writing this on my phone so gotta keep it short. 3 from 3 now after istomin obliged against hewitt. not a fantastic betting day tomorrow- i have strong opinions about some close matches but feel it might be best to stay away from marcos, kei and a couple of others who i would like to have a punt on but wont!

my match pick tomorrow is melzer to beat dimitrov in what looks to be a pretty even match between two guys playing well. melzer is 3.15 which is just too big.
i also have an in play outright selection in doha purely because 5/1 about nikolay davydenko in the semi final of a tournament where he has won before and looks like approaching his old self is just insulting! he plays ferrer tomorrow in a match that could go either way so i am willing to have a small bet on davydenko outright there.

recommended bets: jurgen melzer to beat grigor dimitrov 1pt @ 3.15 (betfair) atp brisbane and nikolay davydenko to win doha outright 1 pt @ 6.00 (betfair)

03/01/2013 brisbane

not even a pic today as i am typing this blog from my phone! anyway, dolgopolov won with a lot to spare and so we are two from two, albeit both short prices.
tomorrow we are going odds against and hoping lleyton hewitt forgot to take his anti-istomins as we take the in form kazakh to knock out the home favourite at 2.14.

recommended bet denis istomin to beat lleyton hewitt 1pt @ 2.2 (betfair) brisbane open

02/01/2013 Brisbane

Another short blog tonight folks. Following on from today when Melzer beat Kudla as expected to set us on a profitable journey, I am only going with one pick for tomorrow and that is also from Brisbane. I think Alexandr Dolgopov will dispose of Jarkko Nieminen easily enough and I am happy to take 1.57 on the exchanges for him to do so.

On a side not, Radek Stepank v Lleyton Hewitt was voided today when Stepanek pulled out before the match began. So, we are one from one so far....

Recommended Bet: Dolgopolov to beat Nieminen 2pts @ 1.57 (Betfair) ATP Brisbane.