February 1st 2013 Davis Cup Friday

So we move onto something different from regular tournament play this weekend as we visit the Davis Cup for the first time this in 2013. There are some interesting first round clashes taking place in the World Group, but it is the Spanish team's trip to Canada that catches my eye the most. Spain are down to the bare bones here, as much as a Spanish team can be. They are without Nadal, Ferrer, Almagro, Verdasco, or Feliciano Lopez. And while they do still have their World Tour Finals doubles-winning team of Granollers and Marc Lopez (who are their best doubles partnership in my opinion) available, they are left with Granollers and Albert Ramos to play the singles rubbers. I am suprised they opted for Ramos ahead of Guillermo Garcia-Lopez who is a far more accomplished player indoors but it just goes to show the strength in depth of Spanish tennis that this tie is still in the balance, essentially with their "C" team! To compound matters more for them, the Canucks have, unsurprisingly, gone for a fast indoor surface to suit thier atomic serving machine, Milos Raonic. They are also staging the tie on the west coast of Canada, in Vancouver, thus maximising the flying time for the Spanish team. Completing the Canadian team is Frank Dancevic, a very limited singles player who is scheduled to play on the first and last days, and in the doubles, the youthful Vasek Pospisil and the veteran Daniel Nestor.

Taking all these considerations into account, the bookies are making Canada the favourites, which is fair enough, given the home advantage and the fact that they really only need one upset out of three matches. But the way I see it panning out, I have Raonic to beat Ramos, Granollers to beat Dancevic, leaving the tie at 1-1 overnight, Spain winning the doubles, Raonic beating Granollers, and then, in the decider, Dancevic losing to Albert Ramos. I think Spain will pull it out of the bag, 3-2. They are certainly worth a bet and are my recommendation at 2.70 on the exchanges.

Elsewhere, Germany (2.30) can beat Argentina who are severely depleted, Switzerland (2.34) can win at home to the Czechs, but only if Stan Wawrinka can maintain his AO form and beat Berdych in a deciding rubber on Sunday, and Italy (1.60) will beat Croatia at home on red dirt. Notably, in that encounter, Fabio Fognini is worth a bet at 3.00 tomorrow to beat Marin Cilic over five sets.

Recommended bets:

Spain to beat Canada 3pts @ 2.70
Fabio Fognini to beat Marin Cilic 1pt @ 3.00