Miami Final

Haven't seen much of the tennis at all over the last few days. I am in Portugal at the moment with no TV and no WIFI where I am staying so that makes it quite difficult! I was slightly disappointed Tommy Haas couldn't drive home his advantage over Ferrer, but I like David too so I hope he plays a good final. Murray was always going to win the other semi, and I would have loved to be looking at it in play and backing him a set down.

Anyway, to be honest, I don't think there is much to see in terms of the final. Murray will win it whatever Ferrer throws at him. I think he will get it done in staights but I hope Ferrer can stretch it to three and even take the first set, just to make it exciting from a neutral point of view. In my mind, there is literally nothing Ferrer does better than Andy Murray. Murray moves better, Murray defends better, Murray serves better, Murray returns better, Murray volleys better, and Murray has more belief and confidence as well as more solid, penetrating groundies from either wing.

I won't be backing it at 1.33 as that is too short to entice me in - I never take anything shorter than 1.50 - but maybe if Ferrer can get up and running Andy might drift out towards 1.70 or 1.80 and I would back him at that price for sure!

Enjoy the final anyway, hopefully I can see it somewhere!

Miami QF Wednesday

Had another good day yesterday with both Gasquet and Melzer coming through. Tsonga let me down a bit against Cilic but we live to fight another day! Another match of note was Tommy Haas' victory over Novak which was a massive surprise late last night. It sets up tonight's matches with Gilles Simon v Tommy Haas as the night match at 1.00am Irish time and David Ferrer v Jurgen Melzer in about ten minute's time.

Melzer was priced @ 9/1 earlier on the exchanges and I snapped that up - he is now just over 5/1. I think he can definitely trouble Ferrer. Not sure if Melzer can beat him, (which he has done before), but I think this will be a close match. Melzer is not stupid enough to get involved in baseline rallies with Ferrer so I expect him to play uber-aggressive tennis. It will either come off or it won't. It is worth remembering that he is on a nine match winning streak on hard courts since two weeks ago.

In the other QF I am going with Gilles Simon to spring the upset against the in-form Haas. Nole made a lot of errors last night and while Tommy has a fantastic all court game, he won't have the same chances against Simon as the Frenchman will just stay at the back of the court and happily trade punches, pushing back every ball Haas sends his way. I am going for Simon to out-grind Tommy Haas and I am trying to come up with some good way to talk myself into staying up half the night for it!

Take Melzer at 11/2 and trade in play if it's going well, and take Simon to beat Haas at 2.66

Miami tuesday

really quick post here - i think melzer will beat ramos at even money and i think gasquet will beat almagro at 1.82 will do a proper post later

Miami Monday

Sunday in Miami wasn't as kind to me as the Friday or Saturday were. I had Dolgopolov to beat Haas and it couldn't have been more wrong. Dolgopolov had Haas at 0-2 0-40 on the Haas serve in the first set and someone ended up losing that game and the next four to go 5-2 down. From there Haas was in cruise control and looked great and in all fairness he played a great match. I also had Kevin Anderson to beat Janko Tipsarevic which looked like a sure thing when he led by a set and 4-2 in the second set tie-break. That match fell asunder for the giant African and he didn't win a game from that point on. Welcome back Janko Tipsarevic.

At the moment I have Jurgen Melzer to beat Tobia Kamke and that is in a third set somehow with Melzer doing his best to lose it. It is one of the most bizzarre matches I have seen in a long time. If Melzer somehow comes through, the pot will be going on James Blake tonight against Albert Ramos but we will see how Melzer does first.

Tomorrow is another one of those days where nothing stands out for me betting-wise. In the matches tomorrow, I expect Murray, Tsonga, Gasquet, Cilic, Almagro, Berdych, Raonic, and Seppi to be the winners but none of the SP's are too attractive so in-play it will be and as such there are no recommended bets.

Miami Sunday

This blog had a great day with the Miami Sony Open today. The only tip from yesterday, Thomaz Bellucci, emerged victorious against Jerzy Janowizc at odds of 3.00 or 2/1 in what was a fiesty tempered affair on court 1. Bellucci was always the favourite for this match in my book and I couldn't believe he was trading at 3.00. JJ showed how bad he can be, with his ludicrous drop shotting and his numerous double faults. Once Bellucci won the opening set, the writing was on the wall and was at his ease in the deciding stanza. Anyway, in other matches today, I backed Berdych while a set and a mini-break down in the tie break to Daniel Gimeno-Traver. Berdych came through to win and those were the only matches I got involved in today. Unfortunately, I never backed Mikhail Youzhny as he romped to a final set win over Yen Hsun Lu, but also I never backed Philipp Kohlschreiber who lost to David Goffin  so things evened themselves out there. I have also decided to stay away from the Verdasco - Falla affair as neither can be trusted and it seems safer to stay away! Elsewhere, Murray annihilated a lazy, lacklustre, barbarous Bernard Tomic on Stadium Court.

Tomorrow (Sunday) only gives me one match I have a betting interest in: Tommy Haas v Alexandr Dolgopolov. The odds are currently 1.80 for Haas and 2.20 for The Dog. I think based on his performance against Davydenko, I will be going for Dolgopolov to come through here. Haas is a reliable player but he is a veteran at this stage. If Dolgopolov plays his best stuff, which I think he might, Haas will be a beaten docket. Dolgopolov seems to be playing with more motivation here than in previous tournaments and I am going to back him to take out Haas with aggressive play from both wings, as is his norm.

In other matches on Sunday, I expect Anderson to beat Tipsarevic, Seppi to beat Bellucci, Cilic to beat Isner, Nishikori to beat Malisse, Blake to beat Ramos, and Almagro to beat Goffin but I won't be betting on any of those unless something attractive comes up in running, as was the case with Berdych today. Enjoy the tennis tomorrow and hopefully some of you backed Bellucci today!

Miami Saturday preview plus Friday review

Friday at Key Biscayne was a strange day to say the least. Apart from Del Potro blowing a gasket against Tobias Kamke (who played very well btw), there were also loads of withdrawals and retirements as well as a monsoon and floodlight failure! From this blog's point of view, two of our three tips from yesterday came in for us with Fognini accounting for Llodra and Simon taking out Hewitt. The only one that let us down was Dolgopolov hammering Nikolay Davydenko who, as I said, I don't really like tipping but still thought he would get the job done! In truth, although I didn't see it, I'm led to believe that the Dog really played a phenomenal match, perhaps going some way to expalining why he is favourite to beat Tommy Haas in the next round. In other reasults yesterday, although I didn't tip them, Melzer, Malisse, and Zemlja all won as expected by this blogger!

Moving on to today, Saturday at Miami brings about the beginning of the TV coverage - thank God! It also brings several exciting match ups and none more so than Andy Murray v Bernard Tomic. This is definitely the tie of the round and I think Murray will win it. As such, there is no recommended bet in this one given the prohibitive price on Murray, but I will certainly be watching it. It is a day where there are about five or six matches I would like to tip, but, for the moment, I am only going with one: Thomasz Bellucci.

Bellucci takes on the giant Pole Jerzy Janowicz and, for some reason beyond my comprehension, TB is trading at 3.00 despite gaining a good win against LL Daniel Brands here yesterday. Brands will be ideal preparation for Bellucci as he serves pretty much as big as Janowicz and hit the ball hard, just like JJ too. Janowicz, as I have said before, is over-rated in my book. He had one good tournament, Paris Bercy last October when the big fish were saving themselves for the WTF the following week, and he has literally done nothing since! Himself and Bellucci have met once before, towards the end of 2012 on indoor hard courts in Russia, with Bellucci coming out on top in straight sets. I think I remember Bellucci started at even money that day and I backed him then as well. There is no way Janowicz deserves to be a 1.48 favourite here - I see Bellucci beating him. Bellucci has a match under his belt and given that he went a set down to Brands and fought back shows me that he is up for it this week, perhaps unlike previous weeks. The Brazilian tends to do pretty well against big servers and he is more solid than JJ form the baseline off both wings, with more margin for error in his goundies than the flat-hiting Pole.

If the Bellucci tip proves a successful one, and maybe even regardless of that, other matches where I may venture into a bet are: Verdasco to beat Falla at 1.98. I was considering making this a blog recommendation but, much like Davydenko yesterday, I HATE backing Tobasco as he is such a lightweight in the head department these days. Doubtless he is a more talented tennis player than Mr Falla but that counts for very little when it comes to Fernando. Philipp Kohlschreiber is 1.72 to beat David Goffin and I was close to backing that at 1.79. His odds have since shortened and I think he will win, but, again, I will wait to see how Bellucci gets on first! And the last match where I am trying to decide whether to get involved or not is with The General, Mikhail Youzhny v Yen Hsun Lu. This is being priced as an even money match and Youzhny is available at pretty much 2.00. There is no doubt Youzhny is a better player and leads their head to head 2-0. But Lu is really solid and I like his game. Youzhny can be so hot-headed as we all know but, closer to the kick-off here I think I will back the Russian General at 2.00.

In the meantime, take Bellucci as the outstanding value of the day @ 3.0 on the exchanges.

Over and out!

Miami Friday

Friday at Key Biscayne sees several betting opportunities which is more than can be said for Thursday! Thankfully we will have TV coverage from this weekend on - it gets a bit mundane watching a live scoreboard! On Friday, there are 2 or 3 second round matches on which I will have a bet.

Firstly, Gilles Simon is nailed on in my opinion to beat Lleyton Hewitt. He boasts a 2-0 head to head over the Aussie and let's be frank, Hewitt is a million miles past his best and is not much more than a tour journeyman these days. Simon is available at 1.66 and that should be snapped up now as it won't last. He will be too solid for Hewitt in every department.

Another pick for tomorrow will be Nikolay Davydenko to beat Dolgopolov at 1.70. I am always hesitant to back the diminuitive Russian but Dolgopolv has been is horrible form and Davydenko has beaten him in both their previous encounters. Take Davydenko to come through this one and again, the 1.70 probably won't last.

Finally, Fabio Fognini might just be worth a bet against one of my very favourite players, Mika Llodra in their match up. Fognini won their last two encounters and that includes their only meeting on grass which is Llodra's best surface. Fognini, (the best looking man on tour by the way!) also took a set from Novak last week in IW so he will be chomping at the bit here and I am going to take him at 2.30 to take out Mika.

Hopefully Simon, Fognini, and Davydenko will all deliver the goods and I will blog again tomorrow evening with predictions for Saturday. Enjoy the tennis and don't fall asleep looking at the ticking scoreboard!

PS Follow us on Twitter @Tennis_Backer for more tennis news!

Miami update

So Melzer, Devvarman, and Blake all came through while Paire somehow contrived to lose a very strange match with Llodra. By all accounts the two players had to be restrained at several change of ends due to Paire taking issue with Llodra telling him "not to behave like a little shit"! Anyway, I'm sure it will all come out in the wash later in the week! I lost on Matosevic tonight who threw away a break in the final set to lose to Dudi Sela but these things happen.

To be honest, there are very few matches of interest in terms of betting tomorrow so keep the money in the pocket until Friday - at least we will have TV coverage by then too!

Until tomorrow.... :)

IW Review & Sony Open Preview, March 2013

So it's hats off to Rafa Nadal - he did a great job and surprised many - including this blogger - en route to his first hard court title in about two years! This was a serious performance from Nadal, make no mistake about it. This tournament had Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Ferrer, Berdych, Del Potro, Tsonga, EVERYONE! And Rafa still came up trumps. Obviously the surface suited him down to the ground but I didn't think he would get back to this level of tennis as quickly as he has. Looking back at the final, DelPo had him exactly where he wanted him - a set and a break down and pretty much hitting through Nadal as I predicted he would. But DelPo tired quickly and his three-setters against Murray and Nole caught up on him. I managed to get green on Rafa and Delpo when Rafa got the break back in set two so it was win-win for me from that point onwards but I would have liked to see Del Potro get his maiden 1000. In many respects, he is now amonst the upper echelon in the men's game, alongside Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray. Following closely in my pecking order are Berdych, Ferrer, Federer, and Tsonga. But, in my Indian Wells review, I cannot ignore Gulbis, who, to give him his due, was the man who pushed Nadal closest of all in this tournament. He had Rafa at a set all and 4-5 15-30 at one point on the Nadal serve. I might need to get myself checked out for being a bit infatuated by Ernie! I love him!

Anyway, with Indian Wells behind us, let's move on to Key Biscayne or "The Sony Open" as it's now called. Before we talk about who is in the tournament, let's first talk about who is not. Federer, Nadal, Gulbis, and Mardy Fish are the most noticable absentees.Federer is missing due to a special arrangement he has in place with the ATP which allows him to miss one "mandatory" 1000 event. I think that's a bit of a joke to be honest but it is what it is. The word is that his age and his record have been taken into consideration. Nadal has decided to rest the knees and doesn't want to play on a fast hard court anyway. Fish has more health issues I believe, and then Gulbis. This is a real sickener. He won Delray Beach as we know and then went on his awesome run in IW. He then loses to Rafa in a deciding set and finds out he has to qualify for Miami - so basically he told them to shove it up their jacksie. After giving James Blake, Lleyton Hewitt, Rhyne Williams, and Christian Harrison wild cards, the organisers gave the final WC to Guido Pella for some absurd reason. So now Gulbis will go home and prepare for the upcoming clay court season. This tournament is diminshed in my view before it even starts but let's take a look anyway.

I think the four quarter finals are likely to be: Djokovic v Anderson, Ferrer v Del Potro, Gasquet v Berdych, and Tsonga v Murray. Others to look out for in each quarter include:
Q1: Nikolay Davydenko who can be so dangerous on a fast surface like this.
Q2: Kei Nishikori who will hopefully put in some actual effort here unlike IW v Berlocq
Q3: Milos Raonic. Surface will suit him but his game has holes and he will be exposed before the QF in my opinion.
Q4: Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic. Both are in Murray's part of the draw and will do well to progress at all but keep an eye out.

I think in terms of outright betting, I can't look beyond a Murray v Djokovic final. These are Murray's home courts as he spends about 5 months of the year here, while the obviously suit Nole too and he is going for a hat-trick of titles here.My money would be on Murray @ about the 7/2 mark to deliver following what was a disappointing loss to Del Potro for him in California.

First round matches of note include: Muller v Rosol (2.02), Donskoy v Devvarman (2.40), Paire v Llodra (1.90), Blake v R Harrison (2.02), and Melzer v Berankis (1.90). I have highlighted those who I think will win each match and given their price as well. There will be more matches of note as the qualifiers are inserted into the draw.

Enjoy the tennis!

IW Final - Rafa v Delpo

Tonight brings a final that perhaps none of us saw coming before the tournament began. Juan Martin del Potro takes on Rafa Nadal, meaning none of the top 4 seeds have made it through to the final for the first time in a long long time in a Masters 1000. To cut straight to the chase, I think that this match is on Del Po's racket. Back in the fourth round, Gulbis had Nadal at 4-5 15-30 in the third set, and, even as a massive Gulbis fan, it is obvious that DelPo hits a bigger ball than Gulbis. DelPo has taken out Murray and Djokovic in succession and there is no way Nadal is playing better tennis than Novak Djokovic. Nadal has been leaving the ball short quite a lot in this tournament. Tomas Berdych does not possess the guts or the balls to win a match like the one he played yesterday. He had so many chances but he is a loser against the big guys and Raffa officially owns him now. Juan Martin Del Potro does possess those balls. He can beat Nadal and he belongs with these guys, just think back to his 6-2 6-2 6-2 win over Rafa en route to his US Open win in 2009. DelPo has been on the recovery track for a long time now and I genuinely think it is only now that we can say he is finally back to his best. His form has been ominous this year and he was supreme in the deciding sets against both Djokovic and Murray. His forehand and serve have been phenomenal this week, his backhand is the only thing that concerns me. He has been slicing that backhand so much this week, more than ever before, and i don't think he will have as much success with that when it comes up against Rafa's moonballs. The word on the street is that Delpo is looking after his wrist and that the double hander can aggravate it. If anyone is going to test that theory out, it is Rafa Nadal.

Having said that, I think Delpo will hit the two-hander more tonight and he will try to dictate play with his forehand. Del Potro does not need to engage in lengthy battles with Rafa Nadal. He needs to serve well (which he has done all week) and dictate play with the forehand. Expect Nadal to attack the backhand until he gets the open court to play into Delpo's forehand. I think the odds (Rafa 1.60 favourite) are probably about right - Rafa has had far less court time this week than Delpo and also carries in a very positive head to head of 7-3 over the Tower of Tandil. Notably, all of Delpo's wins came in that stellar year of 2009.

I think Del Po is going to win tonight and I will probably back him at 2.60 before the match begins. If not, I will watch a little first and trade a bit in play but I am going for Delpo to finish off the perfect week.

IW semis

really really quick blog as travelling in a car writing this. i took berdych at nearly 2/1 and del po at over 6/1 as i think both have a chance and will trade in play if possible. both have a chance to win, berdych playing great tennis and delpo was fantastic last night. i think nole and rafa will both emerge in 3 but i have taken starting positions on both underdogs as i feel the prices are too big particularly delpo

IW Friday

Great win for Rafa last night over a very shabby looking Federer. He will take some stopping now but Berdych might be the man to do it? Just goes to show how close Ernests Gulbis is in terms of beinsg right up there in the men's game. I think he would have hammered Federer if he has beaten Rafa. Hopefully anyone who followed my tip would have layed him off when he was only 2 points from victory!

Moving onto tonight, I just watched Djokovic absolutely destroy Tsonga. It is such a horrible match up for the Frenchie, but Djokovic is pretty much unplayable at the moment and he will win this tournament. The second semi is where my interest is. There is a bit of hype about Murray v Delpo and I think people are fancying the Argentinian to spring an upset. He does come into the match in lovely form, along with the backing of a pope from his own country! But I think Murray has put a lot of emphasis on this tournament, along with Miami, and I think he will play his way into this match. I think Murray can match Delpo in terms of all the strokes, but Murray defends better and moves better and I think he will come through. I would not be at all surprised if Delpo took a set, and probably even the first one. Murray is 1.53 to win the match but I think I will wait for a while and take him closer to even money in play.

I will blog again for the semi's tomorrow but take Murray to get the job done tonight.

IW Wednesday

So here's a pretty late and quick update for IW tonight. We are four from four here at tennisbacker for this week which is a great return. I have purposely tried to be a little more conservative and selective in my recommendations and we will see if we can pick another winner tonight.

If you have been following the blog, you will probably be able to guess where this post is going. We're facing the horse and cart for Riga again tonight and jumping on the Ernie bandwagon once more. Gulbis is almost 5.00 on the exchanges now to beat Nadal and that is just too high. Nadal leads the head to head 4-0 but this is a confident Gulbis, afraid of absolutely no tennis player on earth. He truly believes he belongs with the Murrays, Djokovics, and Federers of this world. Gulbis pushed a prime Nadal to his absolute limits on Rafa's favourite surface in Rome in 2010. This surface will be more to Gulbis' liking, and Nadal, I believe, is still a long way from his top level. He went to a tie-break in his first round against Ryan Harrison and then never got to play a much-needed second match here as Leonardo Mayer pulled out with a back injury. I don't think anybody would debate that Gulbis is a man in form, indeed he is on a 13 match winning streak. One of the main reasons I like his chances here is because he tends to raise his game against the top players and I think he will be able to hit through Nadal. Gulbis will stay aggressive and play to his strengths. He looked excellent in closing out the match against Seppi in the last round and I think he will be ready for this one. The Nadal serve is going to give Gulbis plenty of opportunities to get into the rallies and I think he will continue his winning streak here and take out the Spaniard.

Recommended bet:

Ernests Gulbis to beat Rafa Nadal @ 5.00

IW Monday

another flying post here im afraid but we will try keep our indian wells 100% streak going. i thiml gulbis will beat seppi but i wont be taking the 1.48 pre match price which is far too short. seppi makes very few unforced errors and rarely goes away mentally so take this one to be a real test of gulbis' progress. his reward for a victory will be a shot at rafa nadal so gulbis will be well up for this one and i think he will come through but wait for an in play bet of closer to even money. elsewhere, without going into too much detail, i like gilles simon to take out benoit paire and he is worth a bet at 1.80. enjoy and come on ernests!

Indian Wells Sunday

So we had a great day yesterday with both recommendations, Ernests Gulbis and Andreas Seppi both winning. Gulbis was amazing in his demolition of world number nine Janko Tipsarevic and, ironically, his next match will be against Seppi, where Gulbis has already been installed as a pretty heavy favourite. I don't have even one pick for today's matches - there is literally nothing that stands out! Will update again for tomorrow. Enjoy the tennis

Indian Wells Rd 2 Saturday

The picture above shows Ernests Gulbis on the phone to TennisBacker, giving us the lowdown on Saturday's action - he promises he will beat Tipsarevic tonight so that is enough for me!!

All joking aside, we will focus on the second round in Indian Wells, and only look at Saturday's matches today, where there are some interesting contests in the pipe-line. From a betting point of view, there are two I am going to recommend, but, depending on you preferences, there are many matches where you could get involved with your buck. Thankfully, today also marks the beginning of the TV coverage at the Masters 1000 - it is so frustrating that the entire qualifiers and first round leave us consigned to watching a live scoreboard!

Anyway, the match-ups of note today are as follows: Isner v Hewitt, Istomin v Federer, Janowicz v Nalbandian, Tomic v Gasquet, Verdasco v Nieminen, Gulbis v Tipsarevic, and Seppi v Brands. At the moment, it is only the latter two matches I will be recommending, but all of those ties have potential for a punt if you fancy it. Going right through that list, gun to head, I would take Isner, Federer, Nalbandian, Gasquet, Verdasco, Gulbis, and Seppi.

I think/hope that Istomin can make at least one set close v Federer, and I believe he can given his excellent form so far this season. So, if you are inclined, you could back Istomin with the handicap, or else back that there will be a tiebreak. Isner does not represent good value at 1/2 given that his form is not amazing and that Hewitt believes he can beat him. I think the giant American will come through but I am staying away from it. Janowicz v Nalbandian is an exciting match-up. Nalbandian is one of the absolute best returners in the history of tennis, and his groundstrokes are text book. The only thing that worries me with this Argentine is the six inches of grey matter between his two ears! He can be very up and down as we know, but then again, Jerzy Janowicz is not exactly a world beater. I think everyone is showing far too much love for Janowicz, who this time last year was on the challenger tour, and I think Nalby will be too good for him on this slow hard court surface.So he is definitely worth a punt at about 1.80. With Tomic and Gasquet, I think Gasquet will probably pull through as his game is at a more advanced level in his career than Tomic's but the Aussie represents the value here at 3.00 on the exchanges in a match that will be very tight. So, stay away from it altogether unless you believe Tomic will win. I won't be backing this match as my head tells me Gasquet will come through but I know that Tomic is the real value so there is too much confusion and mixed feelings!! This court should suit Fernando Verdasco more than it will suit Jarrko Nieminen given its relatively slow surface, but this match is again too much of an unknown for me. If you want a bet, go with Verdasco at odds against, but his form is unknown and I won't be backing it.

Moving on to the two matches I will be recommending. Ernie Gulbs overcame Deliciano Lopez in rd 1 on a comfortable 2 and 3 scoreline. While I don't think he will have it as easy against Janko Tipsarevic, I do think he will progress. His form, as we all know has been unbelievable, he is on an eleven match winning streak at the moment! Tipsarevic's form has been deplorable. Now, I did think that we would get very very close to even money on Gulbis, but I am going to take the 1.88 on offer as I believe this is a player oozing confidence and more determined than ever before. He can live with the big guns of men's tennis and I think he can and will overpower Tipsarevic. I am taking Gulbis for a reasonable stake at 1.88. The last match on my list, Andreas Seppi v Daniel Brands represents another good chance to make a few bob with Seppi available at 1.85 on the exchanges. Brands took out Marcos Baghdatis in rd 1 which was a complete surprise, but I think Seppi will school him here in round two. Seppi has so much experience, makes very few errors, and is what I would call a good pressure player. He seems to step up to the plate in the big moments. He will also relish the slower surface here in IW. Brands has a massive serve and is certainly improving but I think Seppi will have too much for him and will be able to see himself over the line. Expect the young German's run to come to an end.

Recommended bets:

Ernests Gulbis to beat Janko Tipsarevic @ 1.88
Andreas Seppi to beat Daniel Brands @ 1.85

Indian Wells Preview & Round one

So Indian Wells is upon us this coming week and I am looking forward to it with anticipation. I took a bit of an enforced break from the blog last week as I was moving house and had no internet/computer for the week! But Gulbis was absolutely class all week in Delray Beach and got me a nice outright win at 20/1 with Ladbrokes at the start of the week. My only regret was that I only had €10 on it! Anyway... moving onto this week:

I think this is a very open and interesting tournament taking place pretty much in the middle of the desert in southern California. Probably the most interesting thing about it is the fact that Nadal is making an appearance which I am very surprised by. I was 100% sure he would skip it and hide away until the clay comes around again in Europe. But he is here, and whether or not he goes far in the tournament, he will take a nice slice of the financial pie which is on offer as always here in Indian Wells. I think I am correct in saying that this tournament has the biggest prize pool outside of the 4 slams. The owner of the tournament is a very wealthy American gentleman called Larry Ellison, and you can bet he will be on show all week too with a different girl on his arm every night! That is my tip of the week!

Anyway, I think this tournament will be won by one of Djokovic or Murray to be honest. The surface is pretty slow for a HC which will play into the hands of Rafa, Ferrer etc but it will suit the Serb & the Scot duo as well. I think Nadal will meet his match very early on here and is likely to lose to my man Gulbis in his third match. Going through the different quarters, I think the first QF will be Djokovic v Tsonga, the second will be Murray v Del Potro, the third will be Berdych v Ferrer, and the most interesting one, the bottom QF will be Gulbis v Federer. (It is interesting to note however, that the great Swiss will have to come through Istomin, Benneteau, and Wawrinka in that order just to reach the QF, so it is very concieveable that he will lose before the QF stage.) Of course every neutral will want to see Rafa v Roger in the bottom QF, but I think one of them will lose, and I think it is likely to be Rafa against the giant-killind Ernie Gulbs, one of the tour's in-form players this year. To be honest, I am pretty sure Nadal doesn't want a Federer match-up at the moment anyway and will happily wait until Monte Carlo or Rome or a tournament like that to meet his long-time nemesis!

I am not going to recommend anything in the outright betting. I do think Murray will have a great chance because he has put in a three-week long training stint in Florida and has been working very well according to all accounts, but Djokovic has not lost all season and starts as the justified favourite. The winner of their semi final will win the tournament. I will be recommending individual matches each day so here's to a good tournament! Enjoy the tennis :)

Recommended bets:

Round one Thursday

Ernests Gulbis to beat Felicianop Lopez @ 1.80
Malisse to be Leonardo Mayer @ 1.60
Bautista-Agut to beat Odesnik @ 1.60

Saturday March 2nd Delray Beach/Dubai/Acapulco

Took a bit of a break from the blog for a few days over the past week, just because I was busy with other things. But I have been keeping a close eye on things and I did manage to back Ernests Gulbis at a very generous 20/1 with Ladbrokes to win Delray Beach outright at the start of the week -some proper value given that he is about 5/2 now. I think he will win it out at this stage to reclaim the title he first won back in 2010. He plays Tommy Haas tomorrow in the first SF and I think will be too good for the German. Gulbis has been hitting the ball so well this year and his only losses in 2013 have come at the hands of Tomas Berdych and Juan Del Potro. The reason I went for Gulbis this week is because I know he is the best player in the field, and the bookies are playing too much on his supposed mental weakness. Gulbis has top five talent if he can harness it properly. He came from two breaks down in the third set of his 2nd round against one of the biggest servers in the game in Sam Querrey this week so I think he has been making a solid effort to turn things around in his tennis career. Another matche of note in Florida tonight from a betting point of view is Kevin Anderson (defending champ in Delray) against John Isner tonight. The only thing Isner does better than Anderson is serve, and Isner is not going to break Anderson. Anderson has a much more solid all-round game than Isner and moves much better too. His serve is very strong, and so I think Anderson represents good value at just under even money.

Finally, there is value to be had with Nico Almagro to beat Nadal tonight in the SF in Acapulco. Almagro has never beaten Rafa but he has been damn close, and he will never have a better chance than this. I backed him at 5/1 and he is available at 4/1 now in what should be a very tight match. Nadal will probably still win so only back small, but 4/1 is still too high.

There is no value tomorrow in Dubai, Djokovic will win, he is just a terrible match-up for Bird-Itch. Go with Djokovic in three if you really want a bet but to be honest I can't even see Berdych getting a set.

Recommended bets:

Ernests Gulbis to beat Tommy Haas (no odds yet available - close to even money)
Kevin Anderson to beat John Isner @ 1.96
Nicolas Almagro to beat Rafa Nadal @ 5.00