Friday at Key Biscayne was a strange day to say the least. Apart from Del Potro blowing a gasket against Tobias Kamke (who played very well btw), there were also loads of withdrawals and retirements as well as a monsoon and floodlight failure! From this blog's point of view, two of our three tips from yesterday came in for us with Fognini accounting for Llodra and Simon taking out Hewitt. The only one that let us down was Dolgopolov hammering Nikolay Davydenko who, as I said, I don't really like tipping but still thought he would get the job done! In truth, although I didn't see it, I'm led to believe that the Dog really played a phenomenal match, perhaps going some way to expalining why he is favourite to beat Tommy Haas in the next round. In other reasults yesterday, although I didn't tip them, Melzer, Malisse, and Zemlja all won as expected by this blogger!
Moving on to today, Saturday at Miami brings about the beginning of the TV coverage - thank God! It also brings several exciting match ups and none more so than Andy Murray v Bernard Tomic. This is definitely the tie of the round and I think Murray will win it. As such, there is no recommended bet in this one given the prohibitive price on Murray, but I will certainly be watching it. It is a day where there are about five or six matches I would like to tip, but, for the moment, I am only going with one: Thomasz Bellucci.
Bellucci takes on the giant Pole Jerzy Janowicz and, for some reason beyond my comprehension, TB is trading at 3.00 despite gaining a good win against LL Daniel Brands here yesterday. Brands will be ideal preparation for Bellucci as he serves pretty much as big as Janowicz and hit the ball hard, just like JJ too. Janowicz, as I have said before, is over-rated in my book. He had one good tournament, Paris Bercy last October when the big fish were saving themselves for the WTF the following week, and he has literally done nothing since! Himself and Bellucci have met once before, towards the end of 2012 on indoor hard courts in Russia, with Bellucci coming out on top in straight sets. I think I remember Bellucci started at even money that day and I backed him then as well. There is no way Janowicz deserves to be a 1.48 favourite here - I see Bellucci beating him. Bellucci has a match under his belt and given that he went a set down to Brands and fought back shows me that he is up for it this week, perhaps unlike previous weeks. The Brazilian tends to do pretty well against big servers and he is more solid than JJ form the baseline off both wings, with more margin for error in his goundies than the flat-hiting Pole.
If the Bellucci tip proves a successful one, and maybe even regardless of that, other matches where I may venture into a bet are: Verdasco to beat Falla at 1.98. I was considering making this a blog recommendation but, much like Davydenko yesterday, I HATE backing Tobasco as he is such a lightweight in the head department these days. Doubtless he is a more talented tennis player than Mr Falla but that counts for very little when it comes to Fernando. Philipp Kohlschreiber is 1.72 to beat David Goffin and I was close to backing that at 1.79. His odds have since shortened and I think he will win, but, again, I will wait to see how Bellucci gets on first! And the last match where I am trying to decide whether to get involved or not is with The General, Mikhail Youzhny v Yen Hsun Lu. This is being priced as an even money match and Youzhny is available at pretty much 2.00. There is no doubt Youzhny is a better player and leads their head to head 2-0. But Lu is really solid and I like his game. Youzhny can be so hot-headed as we all know but, closer to the kick-off here I think I will back the Russian General at 2.00.
In the meantime, take Bellucci as the outstanding value of the day @ 3.0 on the exchanges.
Over and out!
No comments:
Post a Comment