Two picks out of three got up on Thursday. Here's what I'm thinking for Friday:
Daniel Brands @ 10/11 (best price) to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin (Basel)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 9/5 (best price) to beat Roger Federer (Basel)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 4/5 to beat Jeremy Chardy (Valencia)
Petra Kvitova @ 10/11 to beat Angelique Kerber (WTA Championships Istanbul)
And a few other thoughts:
Ferrer still represents decent value @ 7/4 in the outright in Valencia - I am finding it extremely hard to see him being beaten by anybody in this draw. The 4/1 at the start of the week is starting to look very tasty. Another thing to note is that I think the price on Dimitrov is relatively skinny so don't go mad. While I do think he will beat Federer, I thought we would be looking at at least a 5/2 shot given Federer's reputation and popularity with the punters. But people seem to be copping on to what I've been saying for a long time now - this man has played his cards. All he has in his hand is a 7 and a 2. Dimitrov is the new kid on the block and for those who aren't really too much into their tennis or whatever, take a look at this match tomorrow evening. Federer is playing a mirror image of himself in Dimitrov - a man who moulded his entire game on the former great. Dimitrov's strokes and techniques are an exact replica of Federer's - the difference is, Dimitrov puts his shots into the court more often than the Swiss. The Bulgarian is brimming with confidence and will believe in his chances here in what is the pair's first meeting.
Over and out
Thursday 24 October 2013
Wednesday 23 October 2013
Thursday Valencia and Basel
Three bets I like Thursday:
Joao Sousa to beat Jerzy Janowicz @ 2/1 in Valencia. Courts are so slow there and Sousa seems to be on fire these days while JJ is eh, not.
Paul-Henry Mathieu to beat Mika Llodra @ 6/4 in Basel. Llodra turned back the years with a win over Gasquet but Richard was tired and I think Llodra's form has been crap in general in recent months.
Vasek Pospisil to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 10/11 in Basel. Karlovic got by Berdych in three sets and I think the big man will be tired from that. Pospisil is a big improver this year and should have enough for Karlovic. As a side bet, one of my colleagues pointed out to me today that 9/2 is available with Hills for no breaks in the first set between these two which seems enormous!
Over and out
Joao Sousa to beat Jerzy Janowicz @ 2/1 in Valencia. Courts are so slow there and Sousa seems to be on fire these days while JJ is eh, not.
Paul-Henry Mathieu to beat Mika Llodra @ 6/4 in Basel. Llodra turned back the years with a win over Gasquet but Richard was tired and I think Llodra's form has been crap in general in recent months.
Vasek Pospisil to beat Ivo Karlovic @ 10/11 in Basel. Karlovic got by Berdych in three sets and I think the big man will be tired from that. Pospisil is a big improver this year and should have enough for Karlovic. As a side bet, one of my colleagues pointed out to me today that 9/2 is available with Hills for no breaks in the first set between these two which seems enormous!
Over and out
Tuesday 22 October 2013
Valencia & Basel previews and picks
Haven't done a blog entry in a few weeks, and don't intend on doing one every day by any means but whenever I have the time or the urge I will throw something up. I will definitely keep doing all the Slams and will do as many of the 1000s as I can. I am going to the WTF so won't be covering those I'd say but will cover Paris Bercy where I have someone in mind for the win and might do one or two days this week to cover Basel and Valencia (and maybe a small bit of Istanbul). Anyway, here goes:
ATP Valencia Open:
David Ferrer, despit his tough draw, is going to win this tournament. I backed him at 4/1 at the start of the week and you can count yourself lucky that he is still available at 4/1 in places, although 3/1 general. He has a tough route to the title here so don't expecty a stress-free week if you back him - but he actually owns this tournament (as in genuinely owns it - it belongs to him) along with Juan Carlos Ferrero, the wily old vet. The two bought it together as an investment some years ago so it means a lot to Ferrer and he comes back as defending champ. He has also made full sure to put in a nice slow surface to suit himself and I don't see anyway he loses this. If you do fancy someone else, the other two players that I really fancied pre-tournament also find themselves in the top half (unfortunately) along with Ferrer, and they are Nico Almagro (10/1) and Marcel Granollers (25/1). Almagro lives 150km down the road so this is as close to a home tournament as he gets, and Granollers was champ here in 2011 and always always always plays well here for whatever reason.
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel:
If Federer wins this tournament I'll eat my own ball sack. Even though he is the home favourite, and king around these parts, he is finding it a job to string 5 shots together these days. To say he has lost his game is an understatement. To be honest, it's no skin off my nose from a fan's point of view because I was getting a little fed up of him, if you'll pardon the pun. From a punter's point of view, it's fantastic because now you get the same old Federer prices, without the same old Federer. For example, tomorrow Federer will take on Denis The Menace Istomin, a man he has never dropped a set to in his career, and the line on Betfair among Federe's loyal brigade of punters reads Roger Federer 1.13 Denis Istomin 9.00. You can have 8/1 on Denis Istomin beating Roger Federer tomorrow. It's a crime. That means there is about a 12% chance Istomin will win, where in my opinion, it's far far greater than that. If this match was 3 or 4 years ago I would say yeah, definitely, spot on. But not now. Istomin becomes a must-back at those odds, and if Federer does progress, I will be opposing him in every single match because he is a chump these days. Berdych made a fool of himself losing to Dr. Ivo tonight and blew a good chance in the bottom half but there are still too many good players around for Federer to handle. Might sound harsh but if you want to see the old Federer, then look no further than Grigor Dimitrov. He does everything the old Federer used to do and will become a number 1 for sure in my opinion within 5 years. In terms of who wins this tournament, I am finding it hard to look past the Tower that is Delpo, defending champ and the best tennis player in the world right now along with Novak Djokovic. He is a bit skinny for me at 6/4 so my best advice for Basel is oppose Federer at every opportunity, and tomorrow's match could be a very good one from a punting point of view if Istomin decides to show up.
WTA Championships Istanbul:
I don't have any major opinions or interest here other than to perhaps rank these women in terms of their perspective chances to win this tournament. Here is my order: 1 Serena, 2 Kvitova, 3 Li Na, 4 Azarenka, 5 Radwanska, 6 Kerber, 7 Jankovic, 8 Errani. From that, I made Kvitova thew value from a betting point of view and I was pretty impressed with her this evening in disposing of Radwanska in straights. I had a small bet on her @ 10/1 when the odds initially went up. She is now best price 8/1 which is still a bumper price in my book.
Match bets:
Marcel Granollers @ 4/6 to beat Fabio Fognini (Valencia)
David Ferrer @ 8/15 to beat Gael Monfils (Valencia)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 8/11 to beat Roberto Bautista Agut (Valencia)
Joao Sousa @ 9/4 to beat Jerzy Janowicz (Valencia) (Thursday)
Vasek Pospisil @ 4/5 to beat Robin Haase (Basel)
Denis Istomin @ 8/1 to beat Roger Federer (Basel)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 3/4 to beat Radek Stepanek (Basel)
ATP Valencia Open:
David Ferrer, despit his tough draw, is going to win this tournament. I backed him at 4/1 at the start of the week and you can count yourself lucky that he is still available at 4/1 in places, although 3/1 general. He has a tough route to the title here so don't expecty a stress-free week if you back him - but he actually owns this tournament (as in genuinely owns it - it belongs to him) along with Juan Carlos Ferrero, the wily old vet. The two bought it together as an investment some years ago so it means a lot to Ferrer and he comes back as defending champ. He has also made full sure to put in a nice slow surface to suit himself and I don't see anyway he loses this. If you do fancy someone else, the other two players that I really fancied pre-tournament also find themselves in the top half (unfortunately) along with Ferrer, and they are Nico Almagro (10/1) and Marcel Granollers (25/1). Almagro lives 150km down the road so this is as close to a home tournament as he gets, and Granollers was champ here in 2011 and always always always plays well here for whatever reason.
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel:
If Federer wins this tournament I'll eat my own ball sack. Even though he is the home favourite, and king around these parts, he is finding it a job to string 5 shots together these days. To say he has lost his game is an understatement. To be honest, it's no skin off my nose from a fan's point of view because I was getting a little fed up of him, if you'll pardon the pun. From a punter's point of view, it's fantastic because now you get the same old Federer prices, without the same old Federer. For example, tomorrow Federer will take on Denis The Menace Istomin, a man he has never dropped a set to in his career, and the line on Betfair among Federe's loyal brigade of punters reads Roger Federer 1.13 Denis Istomin 9.00. You can have 8/1 on Denis Istomin beating Roger Federer tomorrow. It's a crime. That means there is about a 12% chance Istomin will win, where in my opinion, it's far far greater than that. If this match was 3 or 4 years ago I would say yeah, definitely, spot on. But not now. Istomin becomes a must-back at those odds, and if Federer does progress, I will be opposing him in every single match because he is a chump these days. Berdych made a fool of himself losing to Dr. Ivo tonight and blew a good chance in the bottom half but there are still too many good players around for Federer to handle. Might sound harsh but if you want to see the old Federer, then look no further than Grigor Dimitrov. He does everything the old Federer used to do and will become a number 1 for sure in my opinion within 5 years. In terms of who wins this tournament, I am finding it hard to look past the Tower that is Delpo, defending champ and the best tennis player in the world right now along with Novak Djokovic. He is a bit skinny for me at 6/4 so my best advice for Basel is oppose Federer at every opportunity, and tomorrow's match could be a very good one from a punting point of view if Istomin decides to show up.
WTA Championships Istanbul:
I don't have any major opinions or interest here other than to perhaps rank these women in terms of their perspective chances to win this tournament. Here is my order: 1 Serena, 2 Kvitova, 3 Li Na, 4 Azarenka, 5 Radwanska, 6 Kerber, 7 Jankovic, 8 Errani. From that, I made Kvitova thew value from a betting point of view and I was pretty impressed with her this evening in disposing of Radwanska in straights. I had a small bet on her @ 10/1 when the odds initially went up. She is now best price 8/1 which is still a bumper price in my book.
Match bets:
Marcel Granollers @ 4/6 to beat Fabio Fognini (Valencia)
David Ferrer @ 8/15 to beat Gael Monfils (Valencia)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 8/11 to beat Roberto Bautista Agut (Valencia)
Joao Sousa @ 9/4 to beat Jerzy Janowicz (Valencia) (Thursday)
Vasek Pospisil @ 4/5 to beat Robin Haase (Basel)
Denis Istomin @ 8/1 to beat Roger Federer (Basel)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 3/4 to beat Radek Stepanek (Basel)
Monday 7 October 2013
Shanghai Rolex Masters Day 2
So day 1 was a bit of a wash out in Shanghai. Thankfully they have a roof there on centre court so at least we had some play but neither of my recommendations made it as far as the court on day one. Day 2 doesn't look great either from a betting point of view but I will go for one or two matches anyway:
(From day 1) Tomic v Chardy to have a tie break @ 5/4 (B365)
(From day 1) Lopez to beat Nieminen @ 8/11 (general)
Melzer v Dodig: Melzer lost in the first round of Tokyo last week while Dodig had a good run but I think Melzer is too big here @ 15/8 against a player he has beaten before and never lost to (albeit only one meeting). Melzer had a great run the week before last so I think the bookies are reading too much into his display v Nishikori last week. Take Melzer to progress
Nishikori v Dimitrov: Much the same as the above, I think Dimitrov is quite a bit too big here. Nishikori put in a few pathetic performances in Tokyo last week and if he can't do it in Tokyo where he was at home and defending champion, then I don't see why he will do it in China. I think 7/4 is much too big for a player of Dimitrov's ability and so I will have a cut at that.
Przysiezny v Raonic: There is 11/10 available here with Ladbrokes for there to be a tie break in this one. That seems an ENORMOUS price given the fact that both of these are huge servers and pathetic returners. Both are in decent form too and so should dominate their own service games. Worth a decent bet but don't expect that price to last.
Over and out :)
(From day 1) Tomic v Chardy to have a tie break @ 5/4 (B365)
(From day 1) Lopez to beat Nieminen @ 8/11 (general)
Melzer v Dodig: Melzer lost in the first round of Tokyo last week while Dodig had a good run but I think Melzer is too big here @ 15/8 against a player he has beaten before and never lost to (albeit only one meeting). Melzer had a great run the week before last so I think the bookies are reading too much into his display v Nishikori last week. Take Melzer to progress
Nishikori v Dimitrov: Much the same as the above, I think Dimitrov is quite a bit too big here. Nishikori put in a few pathetic performances in Tokyo last week and if he can't do it in Tokyo where he was at home and defending champion, then I don't see why he will do it in China. I think 7/4 is much too big for a player of Dimitrov's ability and so I will have a cut at that.
Przysiezny v Raonic: There is 11/10 available here with Ladbrokes for there to be a tie break in this one. That seems an ENORMOUS price given the fact that both of these are huge servers and pathetic returners. Both are in decent form too and so should dominate their own service games. Worth a decent bet but don't expect that price to last.
Over and out :)
Sunday 6 October 2013
Shanghai day 1
Monday brings about day one in the 8th Masters 1000 of the year. Shanghai is one of the least important 1000s from my point of view but I suppose guys who are fighting for WTF points will make it an interesting week so keep an eye on the likes of Federer raonic Wawrinka tsonga etc.
I plan on covering this tournament, Paris bercy, the world tour finals, and the Davis cup final to conclude the year - so plenty more action to come.
There is not a huge amount of interest from my point of view in Monday's schedule of play but I have picked out two bets i like.
I think 5/4 for there to be a tie break in chardy v tomic is enormous and is huge day 1 value (bet365)
I also think Lopez is decent value @ 8/11 to bet nieminen in their encounter (general price)
There are some decent outright bets too and I have identified three which are too big and hence warrant a bet:
Del potro is overpriced at 14/1
Federer is overpriced at 16/1
Raonic is hugely overpriced at 66/1
Djokovic will probably win but if he doesn't i think one of these will. Rafa's season looks done and dusted to me which makes the above prices seem even bigger.
Check back every day for the selections.
Over and out :)
I plan on covering this tournament, Paris bercy, the world tour finals, and the Davis cup final to conclude the year - so plenty more action to come.
There is not a huge amount of interest from my point of view in Monday's schedule of play but I have picked out two bets i like.
I think 5/4 for there to be a tie break in chardy v tomic is enormous and is huge day 1 value (bet365)
I also think Lopez is decent value @ 8/11 to bet nieminen in their encounter (general price)
There are some decent outright bets too and I have identified three which are too big and hence warrant a bet:
Del potro is overpriced at 14/1
Federer is overpriced at 16/1
Raonic is hugely overpriced at 66/1
Djokovic will probably win but if he doesn't i think one of these will. Rafa's season looks done and dusted to me which makes the above prices seem even bigger.
Check back every day for the selections.
Over and out :)
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