Haven't done a blog entry in a few weeks, and don't intend on doing one every day by any means but whenever I have the time or the urge I will throw something up. I will definitely keep doing all the Slams and will do as many of the 1000s as I can. I am going to the WTF so won't be covering those I'd say but will cover Paris Bercy where I have someone in mind for the win and might do one or two days this week to cover Basel and Valencia (and maybe a small bit of Istanbul). Anyway, here goes:
ATP Valencia Open:
David Ferrer, despit his tough draw, is going to win this tournament. I backed him at 4/1 at the start of the week and you can count yourself lucky that he is still available at 4/1 in places, although 3/1 general. He has a tough route to the title here so don't expecty a stress-free week if you back him - but he actually owns this tournament (as in genuinely owns it - it belongs to him) along with Juan Carlos Ferrero, the wily old vet. The two bought it together as an investment some years ago so it means a lot to Ferrer and he comes back as defending champ. He has also made full sure to put in a nice slow surface to suit himself and I don't see anyway he loses this. If you do fancy someone else, the other two players that I really fancied pre-tournament also find themselves in the top half (unfortunately) along with Ferrer, and they are Nico Almagro (10/1) and Marcel Granollers (25/1). Almagro lives 150km down the road so this is as close to a home tournament as he gets, and Granollers was champ here in 2011 and always always always plays well here for whatever reason.
ATP Swiss Indoors Basel:
If Federer wins this tournament I'll eat my own ball sack. Even though he is the home favourite, and king around these parts, he is finding it a job to string 5 shots together these days. To say he has lost his game is an understatement. To be honest, it's no skin off my nose from a fan's point of view because I was getting a little fed up of him, if you'll pardon the pun. From a punter's point of view, it's fantastic because now you get the same old Federer prices, without the same old Federer. For example, tomorrow Federer will take on Denis The Menace Istomin, a man he has never dropped a set to in his career, and the line on Betfair among Federe's loyal brigade of punters reads Roger Federer 1.13 Denis Istomin 9.00. You can have 8/1 on Denis Istomin beating Roger Federer tomorrow. It's a crime. That means there is about a 12% chance Istomin will win, where in my opinion, it's far far greater than that. If this match was 3 or 4 years ago I would say yeah, definitely, spot on. But not now. Istomin becomes a must-back at those odds, and if Federer does progress, I will be opposing him in every single match because he is a chump these days. Berdych made a fool of himself losing to Dr. Ivo tonight and blew a good chance in the bottom half but there are still too many good players around for Federer to handle. Might sound harsh but if you want to see the old Federer, then look no further than Grigor Dimitrov. He does everything the old Federer used to do and will become a number 1 for sure in my opinion within 5 years. In terms of who wins this tournament, I am finding it hard to look past the Tower that is Delpo, defending champ and the best tennis player in the world right now along with Novak Djokovic. He is a bit skinny for me at 6/4 so my best advice for Basel is oppose Federer at every opportunity, and tomorrow's match could be a very good one from a punting point of view if Istomin decides to show up.
WTA Championships Istanbul:
I don't have any major opinions or interest here other than to perhaps rank these women in terms of their perspective chances to win this tournament. Here is my order: 1 Serena, 2 Kvitova, 3 Li Na, 4 Azarenka, 5 Radwanska, 6 Kerber, 7 Jankovic, 8 Errani. From that, I made Kvitova thew value from a betting point of view and I was pretty impressed with her this evening in disposing of Radwanska in straights. I had a small bet on her @ 10/1 when the odds initially went up. She is now best price 8/1 which is still a bumper price in my book.
Match bets:
Marcel Granollers @ 4/6 to beat Fabio Fognini (Valencia)
David Ferrer @ 8/15 to beat Gael Monfils (Valencia)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 8/11 to beat Roberto Bautista Agut (Valencia)
Joao Sousa @ 9/4 to beat Jerzy Janowicz (Valencia) (Thursday)
Vasek Pospisil @ 4/5 to beat Robin Haase (Basel)
Denis Istomin @ 8/1 to beat Roger Federer (Basel)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 3/4 to beat Radek Stepanek (Basel)
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