finals sunday

really quick post as im travelling in a car and dont have much battery! i think nishikori is the only certainty today in memphis. also think berdych will take care of business in marseille. back him at 1.72 he has been hitting the ball unbelievably well all week. finally, ferrer wawrinka will be an absolute cracker. i think ferrer will pull through in the end but going with set betting 2-1 to ferrer @ about 7/2

Thursday in Marseilles

Thursday in Marseilles brings an exciting couple of matches, and none more so than my favourite player Mika Llodra taking on defending champ and the man of the moment, Juan Martin Del Potro - The Tower of Tandil. This is a repeat of last year's final here in Marseilles, which Del Potro won in straights, but that was a final, and this is the first match of this tournament for Delpo, and, quite frankly, I'm not sure he is up for the fight. Llodra finally got a win over Delpo the last time they met back in Bercy in October, and I think he will get a second victory here. Llodra lives for this tournament. It is his Olympics. It is in his backyard and he has won or been runner up for the last three years if I'm not mistaken. I think Del Potro has to be a little tired from his exploits in Rotterdam, where he won the title playing some excellent tennis along the way. It is interesting that Llodra pulled out of Rotterdam to focus on this tournament. The fact that 5/2 are the best odds you will find on the French man tells you all you need to know. There is every chance he will get the win. Del Potro's biggest weakness, and what seperates him most from the top 4, is his movement and in particular, his lateral movement. Llodra is the man to expose that with his clever serves and telling volleys. I am not for one second saying that Llodra is a better player than Del Potro - he isn't. But the conditions and circumstances here are conducive for a Llodra win and I am recommending the best serve & volley player of all time to get the win, probably in straight sets if you want to be a little adventurous.

The other match in Marseilles tomorrow which grabs my attention is Benneteau v Janowicz. This is being priced at even money for the pair. I think that is wong. In my opinion, Jerzy Janowicz is a glorified Challenger Tour player. He had one good tournament in Bercy last year when all the rest of the top players were tanking to get to London early for the world tour finals. This is a different story in the south of Fance where Julien Benneteau, obviously in great form, will be hungry and motivated for another shot at a title. He made the final here a few years ago, losing to Llodra in straights, but I think his first round match will have gotten him into the groove here after Rotterdam, and, provided he is recovered, he has far far too much game for Jerzy Janowicz. Take Bennetau at even money on the exchanges.

Because nothing is grabbing my attention in Buenos Aires (apart from the 6/4 on offer for Montanes to beat Delbonis - take that), I am having a quick look at a few matches in Memphis. Istomin will beat Hewitt again, but he is priced too short at under 1.60 so I won't be tipping that one.The main bet in Memphis should be Lucasz Kubot to beat Michael Russell at 1.83 on the exchanges. This shouldn't be too close. Kubot is a nice player, solid groundies and a great serve and volley. Russell is very average and lives his tennis life pretty much in the qualies of every tournament. Take Kubot with quite a bit to spare at 1.83.

Recommended bets:

Llodra to beat Del Potro @ 3.50
Benneteau to beat Janowicz @ 2.00
Kubot to beat Russell @ 1.83

Wednesday - rd 2 Marseilles & Memphis

Keeping the Ernie Gulbs theme going here this week, under some intense scrutiny from certain quarters!! Gulbis was immense today against Nieminen and came through in what I recommended as a maximum bet at more than even money from yesterday's blog entry. The Latvian is one of my absolute favourite players and is joined on that list by the likes of Llodra, Baghdatis, Murray, and Istomin. Anyway, without getting off topic, his form has been sublime and he is going to continue that tomorrow in Marseilles where he takes on the top seed and tournament second favourite with the bookies, Tomas Berdych. The pair have met four times before and split the meetings 2-2. Berdych won their only encounter on clay, Gulbis knocked Berdych off his perch in the first round of Wimbledon last year, and they each own a victory on hard courts. I am very very confident that Gulbis will win tomorrow. He raises his game against the top players and will hold absolutely no fear of facing Berdych who has been out of action for the last two weeks nursing a slight wrist injury. I think Gulbis matches Berdych in pretty much every department and in terms of form, I think Gulbis wins out. This is a match he can and will win and should be the subject of a decent bet at odds of about 3.40. Just for the record, if this match had taken place at any time within the last few months, Gulbis would have been closer to 4 or 5/1. It is a testament to his current form and the threat he poses that he is only 2/1 here.

Other matches of note from a potential betting perspective in Marseilles tomorrow include Davydenko v Tsonga, Tursunov v Roger-Vasselin, and Granollers v Muller. In those matches, I would go for Tsonga, Tursunov (who can be a very dangerous player when on form), and Muller. The last one is probably the most interesting from a betting perspective. There are no odds up yet, but Muller just knocked out Richard Gasquet and can be lethal on a fast surface like this in Marseilles. His big lefty serve is fantastic, much like Llodra's except he is slightly better from the baseline but not as nifty at the net! I would imagine he will start as underdog against Monfils' conqueror Granollers and would definitely be worth a bet at odds against especially given the sometimes fragile state of mind of his opponent Granollers.

Finally, in Memphis tomorrow, Lu v Hewitt, Young v Malisse, and Soeda v Matosevic are the stand outs for me. I like Lu, Malisse, and Soeda here and would probably back them all. Malisse is available at about 1.60 in what is a no-brainer as long as he shows up. Young is an excuse of a player and Malisse possesses plenty of quality. I think Lu v Hewitt is very much a 50/50 match and I think the bookies are being swayed by Hewitt's former glories. He will be under pressure from the off against the man from Chinese Taipei and Lu is well worth a bet at about 2.50. Finally, I think Go Soeda is a better tennis player than Marinko Matosevic and is a good shout at odds against. His serve isn't as strong as Matosevic's but his return and groundies are very good and I think he will come through here.

Recommended bets:

Ernests Gulbis to beat Tomas Berdych @ 3.40
Muller to beat Granollers (expect odds-against)
Malisse to beat Young @ 1.60

Tuesday Feb 19th

Tuesday sees first round action continuing in Marseilles, Buenos Aires, and Memphis. There are a couple of matches I am interested in from a betting point of view, but the main one that stands out is Ernests Gulbis against Jarrko Nieminen in Marseilles. The bookies have the veteran Finn as the marginal favourite but I am going to oppose that and take Gulbis for the win. The Latvian has taken up a wildcard invitation to participate in Marseilles this week and seems to have turned over a new leaf in terms of his dedicaiton and ambition in his tennis career. His form is very solid - indeed he gave Del Potro his toughest test in Rotterdam last week, and he also holds a 2-0 head to head record against Nieminen, both on hard courts which could be telling. I think Nieminen is in good form himself, which is probably why he has been installed as favourite, but Nieminen's A game and Gulbis' A game are worlds apart and I am going to take Gulbis to come through here at 2.02 on the exchanges.

Other matches of note from a potential betting point of view on Tuesday include Melzer v Sijsling, Istomin v Isner,  and Becker v Lopez, all three of which take place in Memphis TN. I think defending champ Melzer will have too much all-court game for Sijsling and is well worth a bet at around the 1.60 mark. Istomin can be backed at close to 3.00 on the exchanges to beat Isner and this represents good value in what is a 50/50 match up for me. As I said in my previous blog, Isner was pathetic against Haas in his last match in San Jose and Istomin will like his chances just as much as the big man on these fast courts. And finally, I think Lopez has a great chance against Becker and can be backed at 2.20 on the exchanges. He hasn't been playing a lot lately which is why he is the underdog but I fancy him to play his way into the match and should have too much for the sometimes wild Becker.

Recommended bets:

Gulbis to beat Nieminen (max bet) @ 2.02 Marseilles
Melzer to beat Sijsling @ 1.60 Memphis
Istomin to beat Isner @ 3.00 Memphis
Lopez to beat Becker @ 2.20 Memphis

Open 13, Copa Claro, US Indoors 2013

The ATP world tour visits Argentina, France, and the USA this week.

The Open 13 takes place on the indoor courts of Marseille and probably is the hardest tournament to predict of the three. The top half contains Berdych, Gulbis, Benneteau, Janowicz, and Gasquet, while Llodra, Del Potro, Tsonga, Davydenko, Simon, and Tomic lurk in the bottmo half. First up, I think DelPo - who just won Rotterdam today - is going to show up, take his appearance cheque, and leave early. I have a feeling Llodra will take him out in the second round. Llodra's record here is unbelievable and the home crowd would like nothing less than to see him take out the Tower of Tandil, especially given his current form. DelPo needs an easy week anyway so I'm sure he won't mind losing in the second round and heading off to Dubai a little early. I think Ernests Gulbis can continue his fantastic form and he will relish coming up against Tomas Berdych in the second round where the Latvian will look to repeat his Wimbledon win over the Itchy Bird. see here and here for some real Gulbis treats! I think Gasquet can continue his good form and if someone had a gun to my head with a betting slip in my hand, I would probably write his name on it at 15.00 (Betfair)
So, I think the semi final line-ups in Marseille will be Gulbis v Gasquet & Tsonga v Llodra. For betting purposes, Gulbis at 75.00 and Llodra at 60.00 on the exchanges represent the value for those seeking a long-odds punt while Gasquet at 15.00 is where the larger money should be going.

In the Copa Claro in Buenos Aires, David Ferrer returns as defending champion to make his debut on clay this season. I think he will win the title here and is about 5/4 with the bookies and the exchanges. He will most probably come up against Nico Almagro again in the final in what would be a repeat of 2012. Other likely contenders are are Nadal's conqueror Horacio Zeballos in the top half and Stan the Man in the bottom.

Finally, in Memphis Tennessee, there is an ATP 500 this week, namely the US Indoor Championships. It is a tough one to call again with all the big serving North Americans like Isner, Querrey, and Raonic taking part alongside the European contingent of Jurgen Melzer, Marin Cilic, and Alexandr Dolgopolov, with Kei Nishikori thrown in for good measure. The top quarter is definitely the toughest with Melzer, Cilic, Malisse and Nishikori all present here but I think Cilic will extand his 6 match win streak and come through. Note that Melzer is the defending champion here. In the bottom half, I see Raonic coming through to the final again for the third straight year, although he is yet to win it. He will play someone like Isner or Istomin in the semi final. I think Cilic will beat Dolgopolov in the other semi and I am going to tip the Croatian to lift his second indoor title of the year at 6.00 on the exchanges.

Recommended bets: 

Marin Cilic to win US Indoors @ 6.00
David Ferrer to win Copa Claro @ 2.20
Richard Gasquet to win Open 13 @ 15.00

also:
Ernests Gulbis to win Open 13 @ 75.00 (to trade)
Mika Llodra to win Open 13 @ 50.00 (also to trade)

Rotterdam Friday

Another really quick one tonight, gonna go with Dimitrov to get the better of Baghdatis tomorrow in Rotterdam. Twice Dimitrov has won when I though he'd lose - firstly against Tomic and then Davydenko. While Marcos is in great form, the extra day of rest should help Grigor and allow him to build on his 2-1 head to head advantage over the Cypriot.

Dimitrov to beat Baghdatis @1.98

Gulbis Delpo

A really quick one as I don't have much time tonight. Take Ernests Gulbis to defy the odds and continue his good form by taking out second seed Juan Martin Del Potro in Rotterdam on Thursday at 4/1 on the exchanges. When Gulbis is on form he can beat absolutely anybody and I think Del Po could be exposed tomorrow by a player who has just as much talent, but pretty much none of the consistency! Gulbis for the win.....

Recommended bet:

Gulbis to beat Del Potro @ 5.00 ABN AMRO Rotterdam

SAP Open & Rotterdam

So it's official, Gulbis is on fire and the 130/1 tip yesterday could turn out to be the pick of the year! He destroyed Robin Haase today 6-2 6-1 in 50 minutes and comes up against Del Potro Thursday. It looks as though Gulbis could be as long as 9/2 or 5/1 for that one so we will get all over that when the time comes, but in the meantime, enjoy the tennis, and he is still worth a bet at 50.00 on Betfair by the way.

Tonight doesn't bring many tipping options but I do fancy Marinko Matosevic to beat Jack Sock shortly at just over even money. Wednesday's highlight for me is Nikolay Davydenko to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 2.10 on Betfair. Dimitrov's playing style won't affect Davydenko who likes to play against offensive players and counter with his amazing movement and angles. Davydenko will fancy his chances here and is a very good indoor player on this surface so I will take the odds against on the more experienced man getting the job done in Rotterdam.

Recommended bets:

Marinko Matosevic to beat Jack Sock @ 2.10
Nikolay Davydenko to beat Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.10

12/02/13 Rotterdam

Really quick blog. Tsonga went out to Igor Sijsling today in Rotterdam which is a surprise. Also, Jerzy Janowicz went out to the old dog for the hard road, Victor Hanescu of Romania. Unfortunately, Dimitrov got the better of Tomic in what was a very close match. I am delighted to see that Ernests Gulbis has qualified for the main draw in Holland and what's more, he has got himself a nice little draw so I am going to tip him as my long shot @ 130.00 on Betfair for anyone who fancies a bit of value like myself! Gulbis is so dangerous and can beat absolutely anybody on his day. Alas, he can lose to pretty much anybody too! Either way, 129/1 is an insult so I'll be having a small bite at that! Take him to beat Robin Haase tomorow @ 1.80 also on Betfair.

Recommended bets:

Ernests Gulbis to win ABN AMRO World Tennis 2013 @ 130.00 (Betfair) (to trade - if you want!)
Ernests Gulbis to beat Robin Haase @ 1.80 (Betfair - Tuesday)

Rotterdam, Sao Paolo, and San Jose

 

 Just before I write about the three tournaments coming up this week, I will start with the big news of a Rafa Nadal upset in Chile. He lost at the hands of Horacio Zeballos 7-6 6-7 4-6 and was outplayed in his first major test since his return. Anyone backing Nadal as I suggested at 1.50 before the start of the tournament should have had their profit locked away as he was 1.03 before the start of the final, Also, Gasquet won Montpellier as I predicted at 5.20 and Cilic won Zagreb at 3.20 also as I suggested.

This week, the tour moves up a notch in terms of quality with another three stops, namely Sao Paolo on clay, Rotterdam on indoor hard, and San Jose on outdoor hard. Rotterdam is the pick of the three in terms of quality, mainly because it is a 500 stop while the others are only 250's. Roger Federer plays his first tournament since his Aussie Open semi final defeat to Andy Murray and in truth, it looks like it is his tournament to lose. Federer is 2.2 or 6/5 to win the title and given his indoor pedigree, along with the absence or Murray or Djokovic, I can't argue with that. I think aside from Federer, Tomic and Gasquet represent the biggest threat, particulary Gasquet if he can recover mentally and physically from taking the title in Montpellier. Gasquet is available at 20/1 which seems a tad high, but the smart money is on Federer here.

In San Jose at the SAP Open, Milos Raonic is looking for three titles in a row and it looks like he will be hard to stop. Raonic is the favourite at just over 2/1 and is the most likely winner from my point of view. He will have a tough match pretty early on when he will likely come up against Denis Istomin, a personal favourite of mine, but other than that, Sam Querrey will be his biggest threat before he reaches the final. Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Haas, John Isner, and Xavier Malisse all take their place in the bottom half with perhaps the Haas going furthest of those but overall I would be quite happy to take the 2/1 on Raonic here on a surface he likes in an event where he has only winning memories.

Finally, Nadal moves east to play in the Brasil Open in Sao Paolo. Before his loss to Zeballos I would have taken Rafa to win the title here but this evening he looked further away from his top form than he had all week. In Brazil, he will face much sterner opposition with home hope Thomasz Bellucci his likely semi final opponent before coming up against most probably Nicolas Almagro in the final. Nadal has a great record against Almagro but, outside Federer, Ferrer, and Djokovic, this man represents Nadal's greatest threat on clay, his favourite surface by far. Almagro is extremely competent on the red dirt and will relish facing a sub-par Rafa. Almagro will have to come through Nadal's conquerer Zeballos in his first match, followed by David Nalbandian just to get out of his quarter, but I fancy him to do it and I will take him to win the title here at about 5.80 on the exchanges.

Recommended bets: 

Roger Federer to win Rotterdam @ 2.20
Milos Raonic to win SAP Open @ 3.20
Nicolas Almagro to win Sao Paolo @ 5.80

Bernard Tomic to beat Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.80 (Rotterdam)
Xavier Malisse to beat Go Soeda @ 1.76 (SAP Open)

Semi Final Saturday 09/02/13

The man in this picture could do damage tomorrow in Vina del Mar. Jeremy Chardy v Rafa Nadal in the night match in Chile is undoubtedly the highlight of tomorrow's matches for me and I think Chardy represents astounding value to get the job done against Rafa. He is currently available at a whopping 17/2 on paddypower.com, a price that is sure to be gobbled up very soon so get on while you can. Nadal was quite poor against Gimeno Traver tonight and Gimeno Traver does not possess any of the weaponry which Chardy will bring to the table. Chardy has always had his best results on clay and indeed he is known as somewhat of a giant-killer, most notably taking the scalp of Andy Murray and more recently, knocking Juan Martin Del Potro out of last month's Australian Open. This week in Chile he looked at his ease in silencing the racous home support over the final two sets as he closed out a comfortable victory over Chile's new hope Christian Garin, and again tonight in the QF when he absolutely crushed Paolo Lorenzi, a clay clourt specialist. Chardy hits a big ball off both wings and he serves well and is not afraid to come to the net to finish a point. I think he is playing at close to 100% of his abilities while Nadal is at about 60% of his! Chardy will give him all sorts of trouble and you should take him to win the match at these near-lunatic odds! At the very least, lay Nadal to win 2-0 or back Chardy to get a set - whatever your preference, but you know what I mean.

Elsewhere, Melzer did the business for us today with a comfortable victory over Rosol in what was my only tip from yesterday. In Zagreb tomorrow the choice encounter is between Marin Cilic and Mikhail Youzhny. It will be an absorbing affair between two past champions and Youznhy represents the value at 6/4. He also leads the head to head 5-3. I might have a small bet on the Russian, also the defending champion by the way, but Cilic is the local favourite so it will not be a recommended bet.

Finally, in Montpellier, Llodra won in straights as we hoped for with another masterful display of serve and volley tennis. I don't believe there has ever been a better exponent of the S&V game and he will win tomorrow against Benoit Paire who made Llodra's task slightly easier today by taking out Gilles Simon. Llodra is 1/2 for this match so doesn't represent betting value in the match odds market. He is now as short as 2/1 for the title so the 15/1 I tipped him at at the beginning of the tournament is suddenly looking very good indeed! It would be an added bonus if Nieminen could take out Gasquet in the later semi final, but I don't think that will happen and I am happy as long as Mika does the job. Allez!

Recommended bets:

Jeremy Chardy to beat Rafa Nadal 17/2 (Paddy Power)
Chardy to win at least one set 10/3 (Paddy Power)

08/02/13

So, very briefly, Llodra continued his march towards the title in Montpellier at 15/1 by dismissing Janko Tipsarevic in straight sets as predicted in yesterday's blog. He has a rather easy match tomorrow in the QF against Jan Hajek and will face Gilles Simon in the semi on Saturday who I know Llodra will beat. He didn't face one break point today and is looking very very good to land the title here.

Elsewhere, Ivo Karlovic lost the all-Croatian battle with Ivan Dodig and to be honest, put in a rather disappointing shift. While I managed to trade out after he broke Dodig serving for the match in the second set and won the ensuing tie-break, it still wasn't the outsome we were after and leaves a bitter taste in the mouth. He just didn't show up, and I actually think Dodig played pathetic tennis on the way to his win. All he did all match was hit kick serves to the Karlovic back hand and follow them in for a volley. His volley is about average and looks like a beginner's volley when compared alongside that of Llodra, although in my opinion, he is the greatest volleyer to ever play the game.

Tomorrow sees the QF in all three tournaments and the only half tempting price is 1.96 on Jurgen Melzer to beat Lukas Rosol in Zagreb. I don't like backing Melzer as a rule but his game is more complete than Rosol's and I will have him at 1.96 for sure. Hoping for Mika to progress in straights again, that's the main priority tomorrow.

Recommended bets:

Jurgen Melzer to beat Lukas Rosol @ 1.96

Nadal review + Thursday preview

Today finally marked Rafael Nadal's return to competitive professional tennis. He faced the limited Argentinian Federico Delbonis in the evening match in Chile in front of a pretty packed crowd and ended up pretty much routing the South American on a 6-3 6-2 scoreline. Apart from the opening games when Nadal dropped his serve, he was never really tested and indeed he showed some moments of real class, particularly on the forehand side, and particularly in the second set. Nadal's serve also looked impressive in the second stanza although it is hard to judge anything from tonight's match given the calibre of player he was up against. It looks as though his knees held up and it will be interesting to see what he has to say in the press conference after the match. Elsewhere in Vina del Mar, defending champion and number two seed, Juan Monaco of Argentina has been dumped out at the first hurdle by Guillerme Rufin of France, making Nadal's route to the title even easier! I think this week is mainly about feeling his way back into the groove of competitive, pressurized tennis for the former world number one, and it won't be too long until he is back to himself, based on tonight's showing. He is certainly just as far, if not further along in his recovery than I thought he would be.

In other news today, Davydenko went out in the first round of Montpellier, losing to the Finn Jarkko Nieminen while my man Mika Llodra looked at his ease in disposing of Kenny De Schepper in his first match on a 6-3 6-3 scoreline.

Tomorrow sees Ivan Dodig coming up against Ivo Karlovic, who I have tipped for the title in Zagreb at 20/1. They have met twice before and Dodig has won both, with one being a tight five setter at the 2011 Australian Open. I think the bookies are reading into those results in terms of setting the odds but Karlovic is the type of player who can be very hot and cold, and judging by what I saw in his first round match against Dimitrov, I am very confident that he can beat the somewhat ordinary Dodig at odds of 2.30 on the exchanges. There will more than likely be two tiebreaks but I certainly like his chances and especially so at odds-against.  Finally, Llodra comes up against the stiff test of Janko Tipsarevic tomorow afternoon in the south of France but it is not a recommended bet as his odds of 2.26 are not long enough in my opinion. While I think and hope that Llodra will win the match, I think he should be at least 6/4, given that he is playing a top ten player. I am more than happy to just watch this one and cheer for Llodra, who, if he serves well, will beat the Serb in straight sets.

Recommended bet:

Ivo Karlovic to beat Ivan Dodig 3pts @ 2.30

06/02/13 Zagreb

In yesterday's blog I suggested that Ivo Karlovic would prove a very hard taskmaster for Grigor Dimitrov in Zagreb today and that is exactly the way things panned out. Unfortunately I didn't actually tip him in my recommended bets but he was available at 3.55 before the match and, frankly, he looks to be in superb form. He served as well as he always does but his volley, his slice, and his forehand were all in perfect working order as well, leaving baby Fed with basically no chance. In this vein of form, and given its a home tournament for Karlovic on his favourite surface, I am going to recommend him at 19.50 to lift the title here on Sunday. He will have to come through Youzhny, Cilic, and Seppi, but based on today, it will take something very special to stop Dr. Ivo and the odds are attractive.

Also, Nadal is still available at pretty much 1.50 on the exchanges before his first match in 7 months against Federico Delbonis in Chile tomorrow. Get on!

Recommended bets: 

Ivo Karlovic to win ATP Zagreb indoors outright, 2pts @ 19.50
Rafa Nadal to win Vina del Mar outright 5pts @ 1.50

Montpellier, Zagreb, and Vina del Mar

This week sees the ATP tour get back to some level of normality after two weeks of Grand Slam tennis followed by the Davis Cup last weekend. Really briefly, I thought Canada did a great job in disposing of Spain - Dancevic in particular was immense. Also, the obvious one of Switzerland v Czech Republic was a thriller as was Fabio Fognini's fifth rubber victory over Ivan Dodig to hand the Italians the win over Croatia. Kudos also to Thiago Alves and his Brazilian counterparts for putting it up to the USA and forcing that tie to a deciding rubber when not many people gave them a chance.

Anyway, it is that time of the year where the players have a choice to play hard court or clay court tennis, and most of the focus this week will, understandably, be on the coast of Chile, to see the return of Rafa. His return has been delayed and postponed for so long but finally he is going to take to the court this week in Vina del Mar to show us that his knees are in perfect working order! To be honest, it is not much of a tournament and Nadal would have to be absolutely awful to not take the title. As long as his knees hold up relatively well, and he doesn't retire during the tournament, the 1.50 on the exchanges for Rafa to win the tournament are an absolute steal and are worth a maximum bet given that the only semblence of a challenge he will face all week will come from his best friend on tour, Juan Monaco, in the final.

My focus this week will be on the indoor hardcourts of Montpellier in the Open Sud de France. Tomas Berdych was the number 1 seed, defending champion, and favourite, but, almost inevitably, pulled out today after his Davis Cup heroics in Switzerland at the weekend. Berdych cited an injured wrist but I am sure he is 100% injury free and just needs some proper rest and recovery to prepare for the more important tournaments ahead. His withdrawal sees number five seed Nikolay Davydenko take his place at the top of the draw and makes the tournament a little easier for some of the players. Looking at the draw, my immediate reaction was Gasquet or Davydenko from the top half, Llodra or Tipsarevic from the bottom. Eleven of the thirty two players in the draw are French and I am certainly going for a French winner. I think it will come from Richard Gasquet or Mika Llodra. Given that this tournament is on indoor hard courts in the south of France, and looking at Llodra's relatively favourable draw, I think he is worth a bet at 14.5 on the exchanges. If he makes the final he will be 3.00 - 3.50 at worst and will offer a good chance to trade. He is in good form - he played for France in the Davis Cup at the weekend winning the live doubles and a dead singles rubber. Llodra always plays with such motivation in these indoor home tournaments and will definitely be up for a fight. He comes up against Janko Tipsarevic in the second round and has shown before that his serve and volley game can put the Serb to the sword. He would play Gilles Simon in the semi final, who I am confident he would also beat (and indeed has done in the past), and would likely face Gasquet in the final. Gasquet looks to have turned a corner recently and is also in great form. He won Doha before the Australian Open, beating a resurgent Davydenko in the final and won his singles rubber in the Davis Cup at the weekend also. If a gun was held to my head I would say Gasquet will take the title here but his route is certainly more dangerous than that of Llodra.

Finally, in Zagreb this week, Marin Cilic is the home favourite in a tournament which, on paper, he should win. There are some big names like Baghdatis, Dimitriv, Seppi, and Youzhny to contend with but I think the top seed will do it and take back the title that he won in 2009 and 2010. If Dimitrov gets hot, he is certainly not without his chance, but he has an interesting battle to get out of the first round, facing the 6'10 Croat Ivo Karlovic. Dr. Ivo is dangerous anytime but especially so on indoor hard courts in Zagreb in front of a passionate home crowd! If baby Fed gets past him, anything is possible, but if I had to have a bet, my money would be on Cilic to deliver for the Croats here.

Recommended bets: 

Rafa Nadal to win Vina del Mar outright 5pts (Max bet) @ 1.50
Mika Llodra to win ATP Sud de France 1pt @ 14.50 (to trade)
Richard Gasquet to win ATP Sud de France 2pts @ 5.20
Lukas Kubot to beat Lucas Rosol ATP Zagreb 2pts @ 1.99