This week sees the ATP tour get back to some level of normality after two weeks of Grand Slam tennis followed by the Davis Cup last weekend. Really briefly, I thought Canada did a great job in disposing of Spain - Dancevic in particular was immense. Also, the obvious one of Switzerland v Czech Republic was a thriller as was Fabio Fognini's fifth rubber victory over Ivan Dodig to hand the Italians the win over Croatia. Kudos also to Thiago Alves and his Brazilian counterparts for putting it up to the USA and forcing that tie to a deciding rubber when not many people gave them a chance.
Anyway, it is that time of the year where the players have a choice to play hard court or clay court tennis, and most of the focus this week will, understandably, be on the coast of Chile, to see the return of Rafa. His return has been delayed and postponed for so long but finally he is going to take to the court this week in Vina del Mar to show us that his knees are in perfect working order! To be honest, it is not much of a tournament and Nadal would have to be absolutely awful to not take the title. As long as his knees hold up relatively well, and he doesn't retire during the tournament, the 1.50 on the exchanges for Rafa to win the tournament are an absolute steal and are worth a maximum bet given that the only semblence of a challenge he will face all week will come from his best friend on tour, Juan Monaco, in the final.
My focus this week will be on the indoor hardcourts of Montpellier in the Open Sud de France. Tomas Berdych was the number 1 seed, defending champion, and favourite, but, almost inevitably, pulled out today after his Davis Cup heroics in Switzerland at the weekend. Berdych cited an injured wrist but I am sure he is 100% injury free and just needs some proper rest and recovery to prepare for the more important tournaments ahead. His withdrawal sees number five seed Nikolay Davydenko take his place at the top of the draw and makes the tournament a little easier for some of the players. Looking at the draw, my immediate reaction was Gasquet or Davydenko from the top half, Llodra or Tipsarevic from the bottom. Eleven of the thirty two players in the draw are French and I am certainly going for a French winner. I think it will come from Richard Gasquet or Mika Llodra. Given that this tournament is on indoor hard courts in the south of France, and looking at Llodra's relatively favourable draw, I think he is worth a bet at 14.5 on the exchanges. If he makes the final he will be 3.00 - 3.50 at worst and will offer a good chance to trade. He is in good form - he played for France in the Davis Cup at the weekend winning the live doubles and a dead singles rubber. Llodra always plays with such motivation in these indoor home tournaments and will definitely be up for a fight. He comes up against Janko Tipsarevic in the second round and has shown before that his serve and volley game can put the Serb to the sword. He would play Gilles Simon in the semi final, who I am confident he would also beat (and indeed has done in the past), and would likely face Gasquet in the final. Gasquet looks to have turned a corner recently and is also in great form. He won Doha before the Australian Open, beating a resurgent Davydenko in the final and won his singles rubber in the Davis Cup at the weekend also. If a gun was held to my head I would say Gasquet will take the title here but his route is certainly more dangerous than that of Llodra.
Finally, in Zagreb this week, Marin Cilic is the home favourite in a tournament which, on paper, he should win. There are some big names like Baghdatis, Dimitriv, Seppi, and Youzhny to contend with but I think the top seed will do it and take back the title that he won in 2009 and 2010. If Dimitrov gets hot, he is certainly not without his chance, but he has an interesting battle to get out of the first round, facing the 6'10 Croat Ivo Karlovic. Dr. Ivo is dangerous anytime but especially so on indoor hard courts in Zagreb in front of a passionate home crowd! If baby Fed gets past him, anything is possible, but if I had to have a bet, my money would be on Cilic to deliver for the Croats here.
Recommended bets:
Rafa Nadal to win Vina del Mar outright 5pts (Max bet) @ 1.50
Mika Llodra to win ATP Sud de France 1pt @ 14.50 (to trade)
Richard Gasquet to win ATP Sud de France 2pts @ 5.20
Lukas Kubot to beat Lucas Rosol ATP Zagreb 2pts @ 1.99
No comments:
Post a Comment