Keeping the Ernie Gulbs theme going here this week, under some intense scrutiny from certain quarters!! Gulbis was immense today against Nieminen and came through in what I recommended as a maximum bet at more than even money from yesterday's blog entry. The Latvian is one of my absolute favourite players and is joined on that list by the likes of Llodra, Baghdatis, Murray, and Istomin. Anyway, without getting off topic, his form has been sublime and he is going to continue that tomorrow in Marseilles where he takes on the top seed and tournament second favourite with the bookies, Tomas Berdych. The pair have met four times before and split the meetings 2-2. Berdych won their only encounter on clay, Gulbis knocked Berdych off his perch in the first round of Wimbledon last year, and they each own a victory on hard courts. I am very very confident that Gulbis will win tomorrow. He raises his game against the top players and will hold absolutely no fear of facing Berdych who has been out of action for the last two weeks nursing a slight wrist injury. I think Gulbis matches Berdych in pretty much every department and in terms of form, I think Gulbis wins out. This is a match he can and will win and should be the subject of a decent bet at odds of about 3.40. Just for the record, if this match had taken place at any time within the last few months, Gulbis would have been closer to 4 or 5/1. It is a testament to his current form and the threat he poses that he is only 2/1 here.
Other matches of note from a potential betting perspective in Marseilles tomorrow include Davydenko v Tsonga, Tursunov v Roger-Vasselin, and Granollers v Muller. In those matches, I would go for Tsonga, Tursunov (who can be a very dangerous player when on form), and Muller. The last one is probably the most interesting from a betting perspective. There are no odds up yet, but Muller just knocked out Richard Gasquet and can be lethal on a fast surface like this in Marseilles. His big lefty serve is fantastic, much like Llodra's except he is slightly better from the baseline but not as nifty at the net! I would imagine he will start as underdog against Monfils' conqueror Granollers and would definitely be worth a bet at odds against especially given the sometimes fragile state of mind of his opponent Granollers.
Finally, in Memphis tomorrow, Lu v Hewitt, Young v Malisse, and Soeda v Matosevic are the stand outs for me. I like Lu, Malisse, and Soeda here and would probably back them all. Malisse is available at about 1.60 in what is a no-brainer as long as he shows up. Young is an excuse of a player and Malisse possesses plenty of quality. I think Lu v Hewitt is very much a 50/50 match and I think the bookies are being swayed by Hewitt's former glories. He will be under pressure from the off against the man from Chinese Taipei and Lu is well worth a bet at about 2.50. Finally, I think Go Soeda is a better tennis player than Marinko Matosevic and is a good shout at odds against. His serve isn't as strong as Matosevic's but his return and groundies are very good and I think he will come through here.
Recommended bets:
Ernests Gulbis to beat Tomas Berdych @ 3.40
Muller to beat Granollers (expect odds-against)
Malisse to beat Young @ 1.60
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