So it's hats off to Rafa Nadal - he did a great job and surprised many - including this blogger - en route to his first hard court title in about two years! This was a serious performance from Nadal, make no mistake about it. This tournament had Djokovic, Murray, Federer, Ferrer, Berdych, Del Potro, Tsonga, EVERYONE! And Rafa still came up trumps. Obviously the surface suited him down to the ground but I didn't think he would get back to this level of tennis as quickly as he has. Looking back at the final, DelPo had him exactly where he wanted him - a set and a break down and pretty much hitting through Nadal as I predicted he would. But DelPo tired quickly and his three-setters against Murray and Nole caught up on him. I managed to get green on Rafa and Delpo when Rafa got the break back in set two so it was win-win for me from that point onwards but I would have liked to see Del Potro get his maiden 1000. In many respects, he is now amonst the upper echelon in the men's game, alongside Nadal, Djokovic, and Murray. Following closely in my pecking order are Berdych, Ferrer, Federer, and Tsonga. But, in my Indian Wells review, I cannot ignore Gulbis, who, to give him his due, was the man who pushed Nadal closest of all in this tournament. He had Rafa at a set all and 4-5 15-30 at one point on the Nadal serve. I might need to get myself checked out for being a bit infatuated by Ernie! I love him!
Anyway, with Indian Wells behind us, let's move on to Key Biscayne or "The Sony Open" as it's now called. Before we talk about who is in the tournament, let's first talk about who is not. Federer, Nadal, Gulbis, and Mardy Fish are the most noticable absentees.Federer is missing due to a special arrangement he has in place with the ATP which allows him to miss one "mandatory" 1000 event. I think that's a bit of a joke to be honest but it is what it is. The word is that his age and his record have been taken into consideration. Nadal has decided to rest the knees and doesn't want to play on a fast hard court anyway. Fish has more health issues I believe, and then Gulbis. This is a real sickener. He won Delray Beach as we know and then went on his awesome run in IW. He then loses to Rafa in a deciding set and finds out he has to qualify for Miami - so basically he told them to shove it up their jacksie. After giving James Blake, Lleyton Hewitt, Rhyne Williams, and Christian Harrison wild cards, the organisers gave the final WC to Guido Pella for some absurd reason. So now Gulbis will go home and prepare for the upcoming clay court season. This tournament is diminshed in my view before it even starts but let's take a look anyway.
I think the four quarter finals are likely to be: Djokovic v Anderson, Ferrer v Del Potro, Gasquet v Berdych, and Tsonga v Murray. Others to look out for in each quarter include:
Q1: Nikolay Davydenko who can be so dangerous on a fast surface like this.
Q2: Kei Nishikori who will hopefully put in some actual effort here unlike IW v Berlocq
Q3: Milos Raonic. Surface will suit him but his game has holes and he will be exposed before the QF in my opinion.
Q4: Grigor Dimitrov, Bernard Tomic. Both are in Murray's part of the draw and will do well to progress at all but keep an eye out.
I think in terms of outright betting, I can't look beyond a Murray v Djokovic final. These are Murray's home courts as he spends about 5 months of the year here, while the obviously suit Nole too and he is going for a hat-trick of titles here.My money would be on Murray @ about the 7/2 mark to deliver following what was a disappointing loss to Del Potro for him in California.
First round matches of note include: Muller v Rosol (2.02), Donskoy v Devvarman (2.40), Paire v Llodra (1.90), Blake v R Harrison (2.02), and Melzer v Berankis (1.90). I have highlighted those who I think will win each match and given their price as well. There will be more matches of note as the qualifiers are inserted into the draw.
Enjoy the tennis!
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