IW Final - Rafa v Delpo

Tonight brings a final that perhaps none of us saw coming before the tournament began. Juan Martin del Potro takes on Rafa Nadal, meaning none of the top 4 seeds have made it through to the final for the first time in a long long time in a Masters 1000. To cut straight to the chase, I think that this match is on Del Po's racket. Back in the fourth round, Gulbis had Nadal at 4-5 15-30 in the third set, and, even as a massive Gulbis fan, it is obvious that DelPo hits a bigger ball than Gulbis. DelPo has taken out Murray and Djokovic in succession and there is no way Nadal is playing better tennis than Novak Djokovic. Nadal has been leaving the ball short quite a lot in this tournament. Tomas Berdych does not possess the guts or the balls to win a match like the one he played yesterday. He had so many chances but he is a loser against the big guys and Raffa officially owns him now. Juan Martin Del Potro does possess those balls. He can beat Nadal and he belongs with these guys, just think back to his 6-2 6-2 6-2 win over Rafa en route to his US Open win in 2009. DelPo has been on the recovery track for a long time now and I genuinely think it is only now that we can say he is finally back to his best. His form has been ominous this year and he was supreme in the deciding sets against both Djokovic and Murray. His forehand and serve have been phenomenal this week, his backhand is the only thing that concerns me. He has been slicing that backhand so much this week, more than ever before, and i don't think he will have as much success with that when it comes up against Rafa's moonballs. The word on the street is that Delpo is looking after his wrist and that the double hander can aggravate it. If anyone is going to test that theory out, it is Rafa Nadal.

Having said that, I think Delpo will hit the two-hander more tonight and he will try to dictate play with his forehand. Del Potro does not need to engage in lengthy battles with Rafa Nadal. He needs to serve well (which he has done all week) and dictate play with the forehand. Expect Nadal to attack the backhand until he gets the open court to play into Delpo's forehand. I think the odds (Rafa 1.60 favourite) are probably about right - Rafa has had far less court time this week than Delpo and also carries in a very positive head to head of 7-3 over the Tower of Tandil. Notably, all of Delpo's wins came in that stellar year of 2009.

I think Del Po is going to win tonight and I will probably back him at 2.60 before the match begins. If not, I will watch a little first and trade a bit in play but I am going for Delpo to finish off the perfect week.