Took a bit of a break from the blog for a few days over the past week, just because I was busy with other things. But I have been keeping a close eye on things and I did manage to back Ernests Gulbis at a very generous 20/1 with Ladbrokes to win Delray Beach outright at the start of the week -some proper value given that he is about 5/2 now. I think he will win it out at this stage to reclaim the title he first won back in 2010. He plays Tommy Haas tomorrow in the first SF and I think will be too good for the German. Gulbis has been hitting the ball so well this year and his only losses in 2013 have come at the hands of Tomas Berdych and Juan Del Potro. The reason I went for Gulbis this week is because I know he is the best player in the field, and the bookies are playing too much on his supposed mental weakness. Gulbis has top five talent if he can harness it properly. He came from two breaks down in the third set of his 2nd round against one of the biggest servers in the game in Sam Querrey this week so I think he has been making a solid effort to turn things around in his tennis career. Another matche of note in Florida tonight from a betting point of view is Kevin Anderson (defending champ in Delray) against John Isner tonight. The only thing Isner does better than Anderson is serve, and Isner is not going to break Anderson. Anderson has a much more solid all-round game than Isner and moves much better too. His serve is very strong, and so I think Anderson represents good value at just under even money.
Finally, there is value to be had with Nico Almagro to beat Nadal tonight in the SF in Acapulco. Almagro has never beaten Rafa but he has been damn close, and he will never have a better chance than this. I backed him at 5/1 and he is available at 4/1 now in what should be a very tight match. Nadal will probably still win so only back small, but 4/1 is still too high.
There is no value tomorrow in Dubai, Djokovic will win, he is just a terrible match-up for Bird-Itch. Go with Djokovic in three if you really want a bet but to be honest I can't even see Berdych getting a set.
Recommended bets:
Ernests Gulbis to beat Tommy Haas (no odds yet available - close to even money)
Kevin Anderson to beat John Isner @ 1.96
Nicolas Almagro to beat Rafa Nadal @ 5.00
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