So, we had a profitable week this week with Tomic winning yesterday and a good day with the semi finals the day before also. I mentioned Tomic outright at the start of the week so hopefully somebody took him at 6/1!
Anyway, onto Melbourne and my favourite Slam of the year. To cut it right down to the bone straight away, I see it as essentially a two horse race between Murray and Djokovic. That will be the final, it will be a close final, and it will be a final either player can win. These two have seperated themselves from the rest of the field in my opinion and both are in confident, relaxed mood ahead of what will be a big fortnight in their careers.
Looking at the draws, and starting in Q1, Djokovic will have it pretty much his own way until he meets either Berdych or Anderson in the QF. Expect Novak to come through his quarter with the loss of very few sets. Elsewhere in this quarter, some first round matches that catch the eye are Giraldo v Harrison, Goffin v Verdasco, and Fognini v Bautista-Agut. Stepanek v Troicki is also an interesting one but Troicki is in horrible form and Stepanek has been either injured or sick so no bet is recommended there.
Onto Q2, I expect it to go with the seedings again and for David Ferrer to set up a semi against Djokovic, but he won't have it all his own way. Ferrer will have to come through Rochus, Karlovic, Baghdatis, Nishikori, and Dimitrov just to make the semi and that route is fraught with danger and possible losses. Baghdatis, Nishikori, and Dimitrov, in particular are more than capable of upsetting the wily Spanish veteran. Interesting first round match ups here include Benneteau v Dimitrov and Hewitt v Tipsarevic, the match of the round!
I expect Andy Murray to come through Q3 and I actually think he will be far more comfortable in doing so than most people expect. His route is likely to be Haase, Smith, Mayer, Monfils, and Del Potro with only the latter two representing any sort of a challenge for the Scotsman. Monfils could be substituted here with Alexandr Dolgopolov but I have a feeling the Frenchman will upset the odds in their first round match-up. Even still, don't expect Murray to drop a set before he meets Del Potro who Murray will beat in 4 but that's for another day!! Notable first round match-ups here are Zemlja v Granollers, Robredo v Levine, and the afforementioned Dolgopolov v Monfils clash which will be an absolute cracker!
The 4th quarter is where all the fun is! Roger Federer has to be a worried man and I for one don't have him coming out of this quarter. He chose not to play any warm-up tournament which is his right, but I think even Kooyong or something like that would have done him the world of good. Remember, he hasn't played a competitive shot since Novak passed him down the line in London to take the WTF crown back in November. For Federer to take the title here in Melbourne, he would have to overcome Paire, Davydenko, Tomic, Raonic, Tsonga, Murray, and Djokovic in that order! For me he has no chance. I like Federer. He has an unbelievably impressive game. He has done it all. But he is on the way down while Murray and Djokovic et al are on the way up. Federer can't beat seven of these guys in a row over best of five in the searing Australian heat without having played one warm-up match first. To be fair to him, he has received a nightmare draw. Firstly, I expect him to drop a set to Paire, who is no slouch and is on the up and up. Then we have a very interesting clash with Davydenko who hit playstation mode for sustained periods in Doha the week before last and will be a serious danger to the Swiss. If he does come through that, then the red hot Tomic awaits with nothing to lose. A changing of the guard perhaps. Raonic will threaten to serve him off the court if he comes through Tomic, while Tsonga or Gasquet will be waiting with baited breath to face him should he reach the QF. So, as you can see, this is by far the most difficult quarter to call. It also contains players like Bellucci, Llodra, Haas, Klizan, Kohlschrieber, and Rosol and if someone held a gun to my head I still wouldn't like to predict who would come through it. In the end, it won't really matter as Andy Murray will win the semi against the Q4 winner but right now I don't know who will come through here - maybe Tsonga, Gasquet, or Tomic perhaps but I won't be backing it! Just suffice to say I don't think it will be Federer. Interesting first round clashes here include Tsonga v Llodra and Haas v Nieminen.
I will wait until this evening to make some first round betting selections but that is my thinking on the Australian Open. A Murray v Djokovic final is in store and as such, if you want an outright winner bet go for Murray @ 4.7 on Betfair. Laying Federer to win his quarter at 1.58 is also a good move and one I will be making.
Enjoy the next two weeks!!
No comments:
Post a Comment