The second men's semi final of the 2013 Australian Open sees Scotland's world number 3 Andy Murray pitted against Switzerland's world number 2 Roger Federer. Murray carries a 10-9 head to head record in his favour into this match but that can be countered by the fact that he has never beaten the Swiss maestro on the biggest stage of all - a grand slam. I think Murray is going to end that stat tonight. He has looked supreme so far this year and his only real examination of form was against Grigor Dimitrov in the Brisbane final, which he passed with flying colours. He certainly hasn't been tested yet in this tournament, (indeed he hasn't dropped a set), but the standard of opposition is going to rise markedly tomorrow! Federer, to give him his due, has been terrific in the first four rounds. He was in imperious form against Tomic and Raonic in particular and outclassed Tsonga in the QF when it really mattered in that final fifth set. I respect Federer's game and acknowledge that he beat Murray the last time they played - in the O2 in London back in November, but this is a hungry, refreshed, and more confident Murray. The slower court surface will work more to Murray's advantage and so will the best of five format, given Murray's unbelievable fitness and endurance levels, surpassed only by Novak Djokovic in my opinion.
Speaking of Djokovic, he turned in an incredible performance today in disposing David Ferrer, but it was nothing more than I expected. (See yesterday's blog). Djokovic was always going to dominate this one - it is just a horrible match up for the Spaniard. I won't be reading too much into it in terms of the final, i.e. I don't think it will have any bearing on a Murray v Djokovic if that is the final we are to have. Ferrer can't hurt Djokovic the way a Murray or a Federer can. That's just the way it is - tennis is all about match-ups and this just isn't a good one for David Ferrer.
So, while Novak is at home with his feet up watching Andy and Roger slug it out, I have no doubt who he will be supporting. Himself and Murray are much closer than himself and Federer but have no doubt that it is the veteran Swiss, the greatest of all time, that Djokovic would rather face in Sunday's final. Djokovic knows that Murray can live with him over five sets and match him in both tennis and fitness terms. I just don't believe Federer can anymore over five sets. If Federer can't beat Djokovic indoors over 3 sets (WTF last November), then what chance has he on slower courts, outdoors, over five sets? Murray proved he could do it by beating the Serb in a somewhat bizarre US Open Final last September and I am quietly confident that he can do it again here.
In terms of betting tomorrow, I am going for Murray to win the match but am not willing to take the 1.7 on offer on the exchanges. I don't believe that represents value given Federer's head to head in the past in grand slams versus Murray so I am going to trade at 2.00 and hope that my bet is matched early in-running by some eager Federe fans. If not, no problem. I just think Murray should be a little longer than 1.7 to begin the match. Elsewhere, Federer represents some value in the most aces category at 3.35 to have more aces than the Scot.
Recommended bets:
Murray to beat Federer 5pts (max bet) @ possible 2.00 BIR or 1.70 pre match
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