Western & Southern Open Preview

Just before I look at the draw for Cincy, I have to say what a successful blog preview we did for Montreal. If you had done what I said before the tournament, you'd be laughing now. I tipped Rafa as the outright value @ 7/1 and Raonic as the dark horse @ 66/1. Hoping for more of the same this week.....

I'm not going into the details and nitty gritty match ups of the draw because a) I don't have time, and b) nobody gives a shit! All people want is the bottom line and here it is: Del Potro and Federer are the value this week. Both are available @ 9/1 and both have a great chance in my book. DelPo has been on fire and went out early in Montreal which helps his chances here. Federer didn't even play Montreal and came to Cincy a week early to practice and returns as defending champ. I think also the fact that Rafa won Montreal means he won't care as much about Cincy - in my opinion he needs to take an easy week. Win a round or two and tank, save the knees, save his energy, keep his confidence. Federer is too big at 9/1 (12/1 on Betfair) and the same goes for DelPo (10/1 Betfair). As a dark horse outsider you could do worse than Grigor Dimitrov @ 150/1.

Monday's matches: here are some selected matches that stand out in terms of value for me on Monday:

Kohlschreiber v Fish: Kohlschreiber should have too much for a still well-below-par Mardy Fish in this first round match up. I haven't been impressed with Fish since he returned and he is, by his own admission, still a long way from his best. Kohly @ 4/5 here....

Almagro v Dimitrov: On hard court this should be a win for the Bulgarian in my opinion. He seems like good value at a shade of odds on and I think he needs a big week here this week to set him up for a good run at the USO.

Fognini v Stepanek: Fognini impressed me with a good run in Montreal after his few weeks on clay and for him to beat Stepanek @ odds against is the best bet of the day for me tomorrow. Should be 4/6 in my book.

Melzer v Monaco: Monaco leads the hed to head but Melzer can beat him on hard court. Melzer has a new coach in his corner too and Monaco is only back from a stint on clay. Take Melzer for value @ 6/4

I'll be back tomorrow night - enjoy the tennis! :)