Tuesday was a mixed bag, the highlights being a great win for Istomin over Almagro @ 2/1 and a great win for Kohlschreiber to cover the under 18.5 games market. Hopefully we can cut out the losers for Wednesday! Here we go:
Baghdatis v Soeda: I think Go Soeda represents decent value here @ 9/4. He has won his last three matches in a row (albeit all in US Open qualifying), while Marcos has lost all three of his last matches. You never quite know which Baghdatis will show up - at his best of course he wins this match. But Soeda is consistent and I think 9/4 is too big.
Wawrinka v Stepanek: Stan Wawrinka has never beaten Radek Stepanek - in four attempts! Maybe that's why he is 1/2 tonight but I can't see any other result - over 5 sets in a grand slam. Take Wawrinka every day of the week.
Melzer v Donskoy: I backed Melzer in this one @ 2/5 before he beat Monfils in the final of Winston-Salem. He is still 2/5 in places which beggars belief for me given his display last week. I think he is a certainty - he is playing so well and with such confidence. Take Melzer at 2/5 while it's still there. Donskoy is as erratic as they come.
Paire v Bogomolov Jr: Same as the above, I backed Paire @ 1/2 last week for this one. He has since shortened in to 2/5 but is still worth a bet at those odds in a 5 set match versus Bogomolov Jr who I don't rate too highly in my book. Paire all day long - he's a 2/7 shot.
Blake v Karlovic: I fancy Ivo Karlovic to put James Blake out to stud tonight. Blake retires after this US Open and I think Karlovic is a very good price @ 6/5. Karlovic is back playing some great tennis again and will frustrate the hell out of Blake. He also won their two most recent encounters (although back in 2010) and has come through qualifying here this week.
Murray v Llodra: I really like the handicap in this one. Stan James are offering 29.5 games as the handicap with most other firms having the over/under @ 27.5 games. So, take under 29.5 with Stan James @ 10/11. Murray beat Llodra at last years Aussie Open 4, 2, & 0 and I would expect a similar, if not better result today given Murray's improvement and the fact that this is a night match meaning conditions will be slower than during the day. Llodra to keep things interesting for a set before being blown away.
Enjoy the tennis :)
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