US Open 2013 Draw Analysis & Outright/Quarter Betting

So the 2013 United States Open is upon us and before I give my take on the draw, here are my thoughts on the tournament:

• There are only 4 guys who can win it
• Their names are Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, and Juan Martin Del Potro
• Before the draw, I would have attributed the following percentages to each players' chances of success: Nadal and Djokovic 30% each, Murray 20%, Del Potro 15%, upset 5%
• The draw has been kind to Nadal, placing the other 3 contenders in the same half
• My percentages are now: Nadal 40%, Djokovic 25%, Murray 25%, Del Potro 8%, upset 2%

Let's take a look at the draw:

As we already know, the draw has placed Djokovic, Murray, and Del Potro together in the top half. In quarter 1, we have Djokovic and Del Potro. Djoker will have to come through Dimitrov and Benoit Paire to set up his meeting with the Tower of Tandil, who will have to overcome Jurgen Melzer and Tommy Haas to set up that blockbuster quarter final with the world number one. Having seen Del Po run Nole close at Wimbledon in the semis, I believe he has what it takes to beat Djokovic at the US Open and wouldn't be too surprised if he did beat him here.

In quarter 2, Andy Murray should make it to the semis, if he can overcome the winner of the Wawrinka/Berdych 4th round match which could go either way. Berdych has given Murray problems lately and the Scot would prefer if he were to face Wawrinka rather than the Czech for a place in the last 4. I do expect Murray to come through here, but not without some serious battles first. There is nobody outside those 3 who have any chance of progressing out of this quarter.

In quarter 3, we have the most open section of the draw with serious chances for some lower-ranked players, most noticeably my main man Ernests Gulbis. This quarter has Richard Gasquet and David Ferrer as the top seeds and then some proper dangers like Raonic, Janowicz, and Gulbis. I genuinely think Gulbis can come through here, and he will believe in his chances. So too will Raonic, and Janowicz and I expect one of those 3 (hopefully Gulbis) to come through to the semi finals at the expense of Gasquet and Ferrer, both who have looked out of form in the past month or so.

Finally, in quarter 4, Rafa Nadal and Roger Federer are likely to meet again in the quarters. Their last match in Cincinnati was impressive stuff from both but Federer struggled over 3 sets and will have zero chance over 5. Both will face some struggles on the way to that point with Isner, Robredo, Nishikori, Monfils, Kohlschreiber, and Verdasco all housed in this section too.

So my quarter final line-ups are as follows: Djokovic v Del Potro, Murray v Wawrinka, Raonic v Gulbis, and Federer v Nadal.  I won't call an overall winner except to say that any of the 4 I outlined earlier can win and hopefully it will be DelPo as I backed him at 13/1 before the draw (my bad luck!)

In terms of other bets, Gulbis can be had @ 7/1 to win quarter 3 and that looks like value for me - Ferrer has no chance in that quarter for my money - his form is horrendous.

I will update the blog every night of the US Open with picks for each day. That is where the real money will be made.

Over & out :)