So who would have thought Stan Wawrinka and Richard Gasquet would make up half of the men's semi final line-up before the tournament began!? Well not me for sure, but both guys have earned their right to be here, and Stan in particular I am excited about. I'm 100% sure that Gasquet's journey ends here, but with Stan, anything's possible. I do expect Djokovic to win the match, but it will be a titanic struggle if the same Wawrika who beat Murray shows up, and we have no reason to believe he won't. I spent 20 minutes last night looking over their match in Australia at the beginning of this year and you could do worse than take a look at it yourself. Wawrinka's shotmaking is the best I have ever seen in that match. That was the highest level match I have ever seen. Anyway, in term's of betting today, here are my thoughts:
Djokovic v Wawrinka: I think Nole will win the match, only because he is in great form himself, but I think it will be an enormous struggle for him. I think it will go five sets, I think Djokovic will win in five sets, and I think there are some decent bets to be had on it. The main bet for this match is over 3.5 sets with Bet365 @ 8/11. That's a guarantee in my book. Max bet on that. Other markets I like are 5 sets in the match @ 7/2 with Hills and with Betfair. That seems like great value in my book. I was expecting maybe 5/2 on that. Djokovic to win the match 3-2 is 13/2 on Betfair and 6/1 general with the bookies and that is worth small stakes as I think it is the most likely outcome. Other markets I like here are over 36.5 games total @ 5/6 with Victors which is a nice bet considering most other bookies are 37.5 games. I think it will be covered comfortably. All in all, I think this match will be a long, drawn-out affair with both guys hitting some beautiful winners and Djokovic just having enough to win in the end. This could be a big earner for us.
Gasquet v Nadal: The main bet in this one was 8/11 yesterday but it's 8/13 today so not nearly as good a bet. It was Gasquet +9.5 games with Skybet but it's not a recommendation at those prices. Nadal is about 1/3 and 2/5 general to win 3-0 but you can back him @ 1.54 on Betfair to do the job in straights which I think he will. Other than that, I have no real thoughts on this match. The main match of the day is the first one.
Just before I go, tomorrow's women's final sees Azarenka @ a disgusting 7/2 to beat Serena. Is someone on drugs!? Azarenka beat her in Cincy two weeks ago and has made no secret of the fact that the US Open is her main goal. I don't think she will still be 7/2 tomorrow so that is why I am saying it today. It's a ridiculous price and I wouldn't lay her myself @ 2/1.
Over and out :)
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