Monday saw what looked like a 100% day turn into a 50% day. It began with wins for Ferrer and for Robredo with the handicap. It then looked like Kohlschreiber was home and hosed for the +8.5 games bet but he lost the last two sets 3 and 1 and so lost out by a game which was a sickener, much like Sloane last night. I had it backed + 9.5 with Stan James myself so just about sneaked over the line but a frustrating one nevertheless. He would have been far better off losing that first set breaker for the purposes of our bet. Lastly, Ranonic found a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory against Gasquet, losing MP's along the way but neither were too impressive. Here are today's match picks:
Youzhny v Hewitt: This is a difficult one. Hewitt leads the head to head 6-1 which is hard to see past. However, before looking up their head to head I thought Youzhny would win this match. So it is a case of the head v the heart! I was impressed with Youzhny against Tommy Haas but I was also impressed with Hewitt against Del Potro. While I think Youzhny will likely win this one, 4/6 is not good value for a player with an inferior 1-6 record. So no match-bet here for me (Hewitt is the value, I just don't fancy him) I have a feeling it will be tight so 5/2 for a five setter is probably all I can muster up form this one if you do fancy something. Best avoided.
Wawrinka v Berdych: This is a monster price error for me. Look up these two guys head to head and tell me Stan Wawrinka should be 2/1.You can't. Because it's not possible. Of their eleven meetings, Stan has won six and Berdych has won five. I would price this match about 11/8 Wawrinka, and that's worst case scenario for him. I can't believe he is 2/1 and he is a huge recommendation at those odds. Whether he ends up winning or losing, 2/1 is a ridiculous price. Both guys have been playing very well, but the switch to Magnus Norman's camp has paid dividends for Stan. Norman worked wonders with Robin Soderling and he seems to be doing the same job with Stan the Man. Wawrinka has a big chance in this match and I'm taking him to win at 2/1 or 3.3 on Betfair. Allez
Granollers v Djokovic: Djokovic wins this in straights but I think +10.5 on Granollers at EVS is a little too generous and so that is my recommendation here. A 6-3 6-3 6-2 loss or something similar will suffice.
Murray v Istomin: I think the handicap is pretty much bang on in this one so the bet I like most is for Murray to serve the most aces at 1.70 on Betfair which I think is pretty assured. Istomin is a lovely server but Murray serves big too and Murray is so much ahead of Istomin in terms of returning serve - Murray doesn't get aced much and sometimes players tend to take a little off the first serve when they play the likes of Murray or Djokovic to avoid having their second serve crucified. 1.70 is a good price - so far none of the bookies have gone up with a price for this market but keep an eye out. Anything 4/7 and above for Murray is there to be shot at.
Over and out :)
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