Wimbledon round of 16 picks

Saturday was a bit of a let-down given the Gulbis performance and Monaco's loss to de Schepper. Those two matches aside though, it still wasn't a complete wash out of a day. I had mentioned Tomic could take out Gasquet, and he did @ 3.20. I also said Seppi was worth a value bet and he took out Nishikori @ 3.30 which was a great result as well. Elsewhere, my main loss came on Paire in-play to Kubot. Paire has a terrific backhand and a decent serve, but his forehand is actually beginner level. He won't ever go far in the game with his forehand. And even worse than that - his attitude. He looked like he had absolutely no interest in being there at all, and he said as much afterwards in his interview. He said he needed a holiday and that the courts in Wimbledon are crap basically. I mean here is a top 30 player playing in a Grand Slam against a player outside the top 100 and he didn't even try! Very very frustrating. Gulbis, at least, tried, but he too was appalling. I'm not sure what he was thinking but he didn't win any of the big points, and didn't do anything well whatsoever. My main profit of the day came from backing Tommy Haas a set down in play to beat Feliciano Lopez. He was always going to beat Lopez and once he got over his first set struggles, he coped admirably with the Lopez serve. I was so close to backing Ferrer when he was 2-1 down but I didn't so that was a regret. I was just too afraid of Dolgopolov's potential!!

At this mid-way point of the tournament, I think the men's draw looks like it has been completely flipped upside down. The bottom half which was fraught with danger is now the easy half for Murray while the top half looks more difficult! I still tink it will be the Murray - Djokovic final that I predicted at the start except now I think Murray will win it. In terms of who has impressed me, I would say Murray, Janowicz, Melzer, and Tomic have all impressed me in different ways. Paire, Federer, Nadal, and Gulbis in his last match have all been disappointments.

In terms of the women's draw, Serena is laughing! Azarenka and Sharapova both going out has made her life potentially easier when the final rolls around but she still has a little work to do first. I have been impressed most by Sloane Stephens, Laura Robson, Kaia Kanepi, and Sabine Lisicki, while Sharapova has to have been the biggest disappointment so far. It's still impossible to see Serena not winning this unless there is some monumental upset!

Here is a look at the round of 16 matches and the recommended bets (if any) for each one:

Youzhny v Murray: Murray has won both of the previous encounters between this pair but they can't be read into too much as they happened a good while back and neither were on grass. Along with indoor hard, I would say grass is The General's favourite and best surface and he has been playing very well on it. He led Federer by a set in the Halle final two weeks ago and will give Murray certain problems here. Murray will win, pretty sure about that, but 1.07 is a bit disrespectful to Youzhny! I won't back him to cover the handicap of 7.5 games but it might be worth backing over 3.5 sets @ 15/8 with Paddy Power. Seems pretty good value to me. Murray in 4.

Djokovic v Haas: This match is closer than people think and expect. Tommy Haas trails the head to head 3-5 but leads the grass court head to head 2-0, both from 2009. Firstly, 8/1 is another insult to Tommy Haas. He represents a better chance than that! This will be Djokovic's first proper test in this tournament - he knows he could lose this one. Haas beat him at Miami this year and stands an even better chance on grass. I do expect Djokovic to progess over the 5 set format but Haas will get a set. Back over 3.5 sets again in this one @ 5/4 with the leading oddsmakers. Well worth a bet.

Seppi v Del Potro: Del Potro should have too much for Seppi here and I expect him to add to his 3-0 head to head record over the Italian. Seppi has done so well to get this far but his journey stops here in my opinion. I won't recommend any bet on this one. Delpo probably in 3, maybe 4.

Tomic v Berdych: This is such an interesting match-up on grass. Tomic has been so good this tournament and grass is his best surface for sure. One thing which might halt his progress tomorrow is the fact that he doesn't give himself enough opportunities on return. I think Berdych will give himself more chances to break than Tomic will and that is why I think Berdych will ultimately progress. I like the chances of a five setter in this one @ 3/1 on Betfair and I would say that is probably the best bet for this match.

Ferrer v Dodig: Dodig won't beat David Ferrer, even though grass is the Croat's best surface and the Spaniard's worst. Ferrer hasn't been at his best but has managed to pull it out of the bag, as he does every time. He pretty much always wins against everyone apart form the big 3 or 4 and so 1.40 on Betfair is a backable price for me in this one. Ferrer to progress.

Verdasco v de Schepper: I have strong feelings about this one! I watched de Schepper against Juan Monaco and have come to a conclusion - he is absolutely pathetic. He is probably the worst player to ever get to the last 16 at Wimbledon - and definitely the worst player left in the draw. Monaco was at his very worst not to win that match. He was ahead in pretty much every set and manged to blow it all like only Monaco can. Verdasco, on the other hand, has been ultra-impressive in this tournament. He was very very solid against Gulbis in the last round, and in his previous matches against Malisse and Benneteau. I think Verdasco will win this one at a canter and am recommending him to beat the handicap and to win it in straight sets. Verdasco to win 3-0 is 2.20 on Betfair and that is a recommendation. The handicap is Verdasco -5.5 games and that is 1.80. Both recommended bets against a man who lost in straight sets to Kyle Edmund in Eastbourne the week before last.

Janowicz v Melzer: This is another match where I think there is value to be had. Melzer is no mug on grass and he knows his way around these courts. He has the knack of getting a break when he really needs it and he has far more experience in the latter stages of a Slam than Jerzy Janowicz. I think there could be a possible upset on the cards here. Janowicz has made a case for himself as possibly the most impressive player in the men's draw thus far, but Melzer will be a whole other proposition for him. Melzer is at his best against a big server - he has good records against Isner and Karlovic just to back up that point. He had made positive soundings about this match and knows that if he wins it, then Kubot or Mannarino are all that stand in his way to a place in the Wimbledon semi final. I am going to recommend a bet on Melzer to upset the odds here @ 4.50 on Betfair.  The odds are too big for a match where Melzer has a great shot at pulling off the win. Also, the + 2.5 sets market is a certainty in my book and is available @ 4/7

Kubot v Mannarino: Mannarino is one of only two players not to have dropped serve in this tournament yet. I think Lukasz Kubot is only a mediocre player. He has a good serve, good volley, but is nothing special. Mannarino himself is nothing special either but has done well so far and has beaten some decent guys in Andujar, Isner (retirement), and Dustin Brown in straight sets. Kubot on the other hand beat Igor Andreev first up, a guy who hasn't played any tennis in almost a year, got a walkover in round two, and beat Benoit Paire who didn't want to be there in round three. I think he has taken advantage of an incredibly easy draw so far and I think he will be beaten tomorrow. I am going to take Mannarino, the higher-ranked player of the two, @ 2.50 which seems like very good value to me.

Here are my thoughts on the women's matches. Going to keep it a little shorter!

Williams v Lisicki: Lisicki is one of the few women capable of matching Serena to a certain extent on grass. She has good power and great movement. I don't for one second expect her to beat Serena but she does have good grass-court pedigree and she could make a match of this! I don't know if she will get a set but I would fancy her to beat the handicap of 6.5 games and would back that @ even money with some of the bookmakers.

Robson v Kanepi: This is the more intriguing match of the last 16 on the women's side. Both women have been very impressive en route to this stage and I think Robson represents some value here @ 2.30 on Betfair. She has the home crowd, good momentum, and is a potential future great on grass in my opinion. Kanepi won't be beaten easily but a small bet on Robson to exploit the weak movement of the heavy Estonian would be my recommendation. Robson in 3

Radwanska v Pironkova: No bet recommended here. I think Pironkova is more suited to grass but Radwanska is the better player of the two. She is more consistent and I expect her to win, but at odds which are too short for me.

Kvitova v Suarez-Navarro: Petra Kvitova will win this match for sure. She is a former winner here and looks to be coming back to form. If you like backing short odds winners, then Kvitova @ 1.30 looks pretty safe to me.

Vinci v Li Na: Li Na has been quietly making her way through the draw as she so often does at Slams. She should have too much for Vinci in terms of weight of shot and movement on grass and again, if you don't mind taking short odds then I think 1.50 on the Chinese woman represents good value in this one against a player not known for her grass-court prowess.

Bartoli v Knapp: I have very little interest in this one to be honest. I would like to see the young Knapp win but I think Bartoli will have too much for her on grass and @ 1.30 I won't be recommending anything at all in this one. Maybe over 2.5 sets @ 12/5 on Betfair if you fancy a bet!

Flipkens v Pennetta: Pennetta has been good at this tournament. She has done well to win through the previous three rounds on her worst surface, but I do expect her run to be ended here by the Belgian. I think 1.40 might be a little short on Flipkens so no recommended bet in this one.

Puig v Stephens: Stephens will win this one. She is a super, super talent and is probably my favourite female player. She is a future number 1 in the making in my opinion and she should put an end to the young Puerto Rican's impressive run. I think 1.34 is too short to get involved pre-match but keep an eye on it in-play.

Hopefully we will have a few winners tomorrow on what is probably the biggest day of the tennis calender! Enjoy the tennis and best of luck. Check back tomorrow night for Tuesday's action, Over and out :)