We had another fantastic 100% strike rate today with Janowicz obliging against Almagro and Melzer taking out Stakhovsky. Janowicz's performance against Almagro was flawless. He was inspired and will take a lot of stopping in this type of form. Melzer always had a good shot against Stakhovsky - his return of serve is his best asset. The only reason Melzer began this encounter at odds-against was just because Stak took out Federer. The Ukranian was always going to have a bit of a hangover affect from that match and Melzer took full advantage of that. Our only other tip for Friday - Gulbis v Verdasco - has been held off overnight due to rain at SW19 and is first up on Court 3 at 11.30 on Saturday morning. I am still very strong on Gulbis for that one. He has actually shortened quite a lot from the 1.85 I backed and recommended him at into 1.70 which is a good sign. I won't go into it again but you can check out yesterday's post for my reasoning behind that one! There are some days where there are a couple of matches you really fancy, like Friday, and then you get days where you don't really see anything worth backing. Tomorrow is one of those latter days! And I'm not going to bet for the sake of betting.
Saturday: there are loads of matches where there are potentially good bets, but something is holding me back from making a recommendation on it. I am sitting firmly on the fence for a lot of them! I think Youzhny should beat Troicki @1.70, but I hate backing the Russian and Troicki has looked in good shape and actually leads the head to head. Haas will beat Lopez I think but I am not willing to get involved at 1.50 which is a bit too short for my liking. Tomic v Gasquet is an absolutely fascinating match-up on grass. Tomic lost both of their previous encounters, but both on hard court. Grass will be more to Tomic's liking and I wouldn't be too surprised if he took out Gasquet. I like Tomic, even though lots of people don't, and I really like his game. He is 3.15 tomorrow which is a good price. I might have a small bet on this one but I'm not recommending it as Gasquet is the favourite for a reason. It could well be a thriller though! Nishikori and Seppi is another similar one to the Gasquet - Tomic match. Seppi is 3.65 on Betfair and he is not without his chance. Nishikori holds the key to the match - if he plays his best stuff he wins in my opinion but he is too inconsistent for me and if I had to bet on that match I would take Seppi for the value but again, no recommendation. In the Sijsling - Dodig affair, I cannot make my mind up. I don't have any particularly strong opinions on it. I think Dodig might win it but Sijsling is custom-made for grass and knocked out Raonic without dropping a set so this one is a bit of a lottery for me and I won't be backing in it. Paire will beat Kubot but is 1.36 to do so and so no bet on that one either. I think Berdych will beat Anderson, and I think Del Po will beat Zemlja but there are no markets worth backing in those two either. The same goes for Djokovic - Chardy. There is one match where I will recommend a short-priced winner:
Monaco v de Schepper: Juan Monaco is 1.50 to beat Kenny de Schepper. de Schepper is a nothing player. He is 6'8 in height and that is why he has some followers. He has come through Paolo Lorenzi in the first round and got a walkover from Marin Cilic in the second. Monaco beat Bastien Knittel in the first round and beat big-serving Rajeev Ram in the scond round. That will be a good preparation for this de Schepper match. The Frenchman's S&V style of play should be cannon-fodder for Juan Monaco whose return of serve is his best asset. Even on grass Juan Monaco should be too good for Kenny de Schepper and I will happily take him @ 1.50. I thought it would be shorter.
Just to re-emphasise, Gulbis is the main recommendation tomorrow, and if you want another bet, Monaco @ 1/2 if you can get it.Best of luck! Come on Ernie! :)
No comments:
Post a Comment