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Daily tennis betting blog for Masters 1000 and Grand Slam tournaments only... Follow on Twitter every day for in-running selections in ALL tournaments: @Tennis_Backer

Thursday 4 July 2013

Men's Semi Finals

So the women's Wimbledon fianl 2013 is set - Sabine Lisicki v Marion Bartoli. I backed Radwanska to beat Lisicki today @ 2.40 and when 3-0 up in the third I managed to lay her of @ 1.18 so it was a good day irrespective of the eventual loss. Lisicki was just playing inspired tennis when it mattered and hats off to her. Anyway, tomorrow is a big big day on the men's side and here are my thoughts:

Del Potro v Djokovic: What an interesting match between two guys who have yet to drop a set in this tournament. Both have been extremely impressive, probably Djokovic more so than Delpo but Delpo beat David Ferrer in straight sets in the quarters so underestimate him at your peril. They have only met once on grass - in a massive contest to earn an Olympic medal for their country at the Olympics at Wimbledon last summer - and Delpo prevailed. In straight sets. He also won their most recent encounter at Indian Wells in March so he knows he can win this match. I think DelPo has a serious chance to pull off the win and his odds of 6/1 on Betfair represent great value in my opinion. I think if you held a gun to my head for a choice then I would have to take Nole but I expect a titanic tussle. The bet of the day for me is to lay three sets on Betfair @ 2.00 (in other words - there will be over 3.5 sets total) Another interesting bet if you fancy it is Delpo to have more aces @ 7/4 on Betfair. He obviously has a better serve than Nole but what you have to factor in is that Nole is a better returner and it can be hard to ace him. They both have 54 aces from five matches so 7/4 seems like decent odds - I probably won't back it myself but just pointing it out! The main bet is over 3.5 sets here.

Murray v Janowicz: the second match of the day seems a little clear cut to me - if not to the bookies. The respective odds make Djokovic more likely to progress than Murray - but I think Murray has an easier passage. Janowicz has been super - a real revelation, but Murray will relish this one. In a neutral rally, Murray will win 7 out of 10. Murray also has the return to take away Janowicz's best weapon which is his monster serve. I think if Melzer can get 2 sets from Janowicz, then Murray can surely get the job done easily enough. I think it is entirely possible than Janowicz can get a set but I won't be backing it. There are actually no real bets of huge interest for me in this one. If Murray moves out to 1.40 or something like that in-running then I will get involved but not at the pre-match odds. Expect Murray to progress, in 3 or in 4.

Enjoy the tennis and good luck!

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