A big week ahead in the sunshine of the southern hempisphere this week as we have a 250 in Sydney and a 250 in Auckland. Both tournaments have very strong stand-out favourites, (neither of which I will be backing), and give us a chance to see who is in form and who is not ahead of the year's first grand slam which begins one week from today in Melbourne. I always think that the week before a slam is a nothing week to most of the top players who are more focussed on the slam the following week so look for a few outsiders to shine this week and perhaps a few big surprises along the way.
ATP Sydney Preview:
Juan Martin Del Potro is the top seed and favourite at the Apia Sydney International. He enters the tournament after long break since the WTF in November. Delpo starts as an 11/10 favourite which seems a tad short for me given the intense climate the and fact that this is the week before a slam. His draw is far from easy with Cilic the main danger in the top half. Bernard Tomic is the dark horse for me. He comes in to the tournament trying to defend the only title he has ever won. He showed some decent from at the Hopman Cup last week and has made no secret that he is here to win the title again. He reckons that his main advantage (apart from the home support) is that he has been in Australia for the last few months whereas most of his competitors are only here a matter of days. That could be a huge advantage. He went up 20/1 initially and has already been backed into 12/1 best price but that's still good enough to recommend. His route to the title would likely be Granollers, Nieminen, Dolgopolov, and Benneteau with a possible final against Cilic or Del Potro. Of those along the way to the final, Dolgopolov worries me the most so I would be hoping Janowicz could take him out! Nobady can argue that Tomic has the most motivation this week and that's what made me back him.
ATP Auckland Preview:
David Ferrer is the king of Auckland. He has bucketloads of titles here, and unlike the other top guys, he seems to give it his all in the week before the slams. I guess he realises he has no genuine chance to win the slams and so wants to try to pick up all the titles he can. When the intial odds went up here, I could not for one second go along with the notion that Ferrer was an even money chance here. No way. Now that Gael Monfils has pulled out, I think he has a much better chance, but there are still 5 guys or maybe more in this draw who can beat Ferrer and so I still wouldn't back him at 11/10. Ferrer's draw in not actually too bad but he was hammered by Brands last week in Doha and I think any of Brands, Baghdatis, Kohlschreiber, Isner, or Haas could beat him here. Of those, my pick for a bet would be Phillip Kohlschreiber @ 9/1. He was a finalist here last year and won the title here in 2008 and has a relatively nice draw given he is in Isner's quarter and the big man is just back from an ankle injury. If you want a bigger outsider, take Baghdatis @ 66/1
Monday's picks:
Paire to beat Przysiezny (Auckland): Paire loves it around here. He said during the week that this is one of his favourite stops on tour. He is playing another big server in Przysiezny and tends to do well against big servers. I like the Frenchman at 4/7. It's a 4/11 shot for me
Kohlschreiber to beat Carreno-Busta (Auckland): Kohlschreiber is 1/4 to win this but its more like 1/7 to me so it seems a safe bet. The 2-0 set betting looks good too
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