Day 5 was just a break even day unfortunately with Fognini beating Querrey and the max bet on Kerber coming in easily at 1/3. Istomin gave us a run for our money in the third set but that was always a bit of a gamble and finally Stosur lost from a set up so all in all about level for the day. I've just done a quick tally and we are plus three points profit for the tournament which is not great by any means but still profit none the less. I am always confident of better profits in the second week of a slam too so stick with it:
Saturday is a bumper day. Here are the picks:
Gabashvili v Federer: Gabashvili +9.5 @ 4/5 looks a nice bit of value here. He has taken out an in-form Stakhovsky and Fernando Verdasco so far and can be dangerous. He is a very big hitter if somewhat erratic too. I expect Federer to win, probably even in straight sets, but I expect it to be closer than 3,3,& 3 and so will have 2pts on Gabashvili +9.5 games. Go with a bookie who voids out all bets in case Gabashvili retires. He had the trainer out twice against Verdasco.
Paire v Bautista-Agut: this is a match I have a strong opinion on. I think Paire, despite the head to head between the players, should be a favourite here. If this match was on clay I'd understand but to me Bautista-Agut is a nothing player. I think what's happened here is that the armchair punter, sitting at home watching the tennis on TV who doesn't watch it from one end of the year to the other has seen him beat an under-par Delpo and thinks he's a world-beater. Let me tell you he's not. My initial price here was about 1.5 Paire. I don't read too much into the head to head in this instance. Benoit Paire can be a type to throw a match very easily once he loses interest. I'm confident that won't happen in a slam. Paire came from 2 sets down to defeat Kyrgios last round. If he serves as he can, then I give him a terrific chance here My only worry with Paire is his forehand. Everything else is world class - serve, volley, backhand. His backhand is actually in the top two or three on tour. It's that good. 9/5 is a ridiculous price and I'm going a full 5pts max bet on it. I'm not saying he's a certainty because he's not but I am saying I think the price is wrong and I think it's excellent value. 5 pts Paire @ 9/5
Raonic v Dimitrov: Going to take a chance on Dimitrov here at 5/4 to win this one. Leads the head to head 2-1 and looks to be in good form. Very impressive win over Lu in straight sets last round and can beat Raonic for sure. He can hold serve pretty comfortably against Raonic whose returns are among the worst in tennis and I think Dimitrov's passing shots when the giant comes in to the net could be a key to this match. 2pts Dimitrov @ 5/4
Murray v Lopez: Murray leads the head to head 7-0 here but when the draw came out I immediately saw this as a potential banana skin. Look at their last meeting in the US Open in 2012 when Murray won. It was extremely close, 7-6 7-6 4-6 7-6 to the Scot. He was playing a lot better then than he is now. Lopez, like Murray is yet to drop a set. I expect Murray to win but I will have 1pt on Lopez @ 6/1 general. I will also go for 3pts on Lopez to win a set @ 5/4 and a further 2 pts on Lopez +6.5 games @ 4/5. Big match
Young v Nishikori: Nishikori to win 3-0 @ 20/21 is my pick here. I think Young is brutal and can't believe he has gotten this far. Just 1 pt.
Nadal v Monfils: 2 pts on Monfils here to win a set @ 6/5. I expect Nadal to win but I also expect a close match. Monfils can be so dangerous and Nadal will need to play close to his best tennis.
No womens bets tonight for me but one more for the men's draw. Tsonga is still 9/2 to win Q2 with Ladbrokes and I think it's enormous. He hasn't dropped a set yet and looked great in his last round against Bellucci. Ominous threat to Federer and Murray. The price seems big to me. 2pts on that
Follow on twitter @tennis_backer and come back tomorrow for Sunday's picks.
Over and out :)
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