Munich and the former Estoril

Last week was an easy one to pick! We recommended Nadal here before the week began and in all fairness, he was a very reasonable price @ 1.50 to defend his Barcelona title. He did so with ease, and it was a lot more simple than walking into your local bank manager and asking for a deposit interest rate of 50% - you would be led away in a straight jacket! Unfortunately Bucharest wasn't as straight-forward to predict and we got the final wrong - I thought Rosol might self-destruct but he was playing with a superior motive this week apparently. His dad passed away recently and it was a very emotional affair for Rosol all week. I doff my hat to him - he did very well and was very composed in what was his first ATP world tour final.

Moving onto this week, there are two ATP 250s taking place. One is the BMW Open in Munich, and the other is what used to be Estoril but what is now being called the Portugal Open. Looking at the fields, I think Munich has more strength in depth but Portugal has the best player with David Ferrer taking part. I will get straight to the point with the Portugal Open. Ferrer is going to win it and is odds against  to do so on the exchanges. He had an injury a few weeks back and suffered a surprise loss in Barcelona to Dimitry Tursunov. Ferrer is not one to lie down and take a defeat easily and I can see him giving a gung-ho effort this week to ensure a return to top form before Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros. There is literally nobody in the field who will trouble him. Wawrinka, Fognini, and maybe Robredo could be dangers but in all honesty I cann't see anyone troubling Ferrer and he is a very solid recommendation to take the title this week @ 2.10.

Munich is not so stright-forward and there are several strong pretenders to the throne. The number one seed is Janko Tipsarevic and he would be a big lay in my book. He is a pig on clay and is a cert not to win it. I would have the winner of Monfils v Melzer coming out of the top quarter and indeed going all the way to the final as there is no standout in Q2. The bottom half in where all of the talent is and the third quarter in particular is stacked. Any one of Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Jarrko Nieminen, or Florian Mayer could come out of it. I would probably narrow that down to Haas or Gulbis, depending on who wins their second round clash. The bottom quarter has Cilic, Tursunov, and Dolgopolov and that is a dangerous trio as well. I think the semi final line-ups might well be Monfils v Kohlschreiber and Gulbis v Dolgopolov. In terms of a winner I would look for the value in this one. Any one of six or seven guys could win it so there will be no recommended bet but if you do fancy a flutter in it, go for any one of Gulbis (10.00), Monfils (17.00), or Dolgopolov (11.00) on Betfair.

Finally, there are quite a few individual matches jumping out at me tomorrow to get the week off to a good start. Quite breifly I will go through them below:

First up, I am amazed that Ivan Dodig is available @ 4.30 to beat Marin Cilic. This surface is far better suited to Dodig's game and this Croatian derby will be very close. Dodig had a great win over Nikolay Davydenko today 4 & 4 and in my book, the Russian is a better player on clay than Marin Cilic. Dodig is a recommended bet for a small stake @ 4.30.

Another match in Munich is Gulbis v Nieminen and Gulibs will win this one @ 1.61 if you are interested. He has never even lost a set to Nieminen so this one looks a sure thing to me.

Evgeny Koroloev is another worth a bet tomorrow to oust Marcos Baghdatis. They meet in Munich as well and Korolev is available @ 3.15. This could be a steal for two reasons. Firstly, this is Baghdatis' first clay court match of the year and he is a notoriously slow starter on this surface. It doesn't suit his game at all while Korolev has played upwards of ten matches on red stuff in the last month including Davis Cup, qualifiers, and challengers. I think he could well beat Baghdatis tomorrow and is worth a bet @ 3.15.

The last match I am interested in in Munich is for Monfils to beat Melzer. Melzer is one of those players I hate backing and I hate laying. I hate being involved in any match he is in but Monfils has a 3-0 head to head over him, is 2.10 to beat him, and I think Melzer's best days are proabably behind him. I think Gael needs a strong week here.

Im Portugal tomorrow, I like Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Julien Benneteau @ 2.40. Carreno-Busta is on a serious run on clay and is made for this surface, unlike Benneteau who hasn't played much clay this year and who doesn't really enjoy the surface.

I also like Berlocq @ 1.85 to beat Ramos. Berlocq has come on a lot in the last year and is a more solid player than Ramos.

And finally, I also like home favourite Rui Machado to beat Victor Hanescu @ 2.70 as well in Portugal.

That is a bumper list of recommeded bets tomorrow - more than likely not all of them will come off but the purpose of this blog is just to inform and to point you in the right direction and help people make up their own mind. Those are my opinions and hopefully the majority of them will come through tomorrow. Just to summarise, the recommended list for tomorrow is: Dodig @ 4.30, Gulbis @ 1.61, Koroloev @ 3.15, Monfils @ 2.10, Carreno-Busta @ 2.40, Berlocq @ 1.85, and Machado @ 2.70.

Enjoy the tennis and good luck! :)