The first line of this post is the most important - Rafa Nadal will win this tournament for the ninth successive time.
Nadal hasn't lost a match here since The Beatles were boys, since Ray Houghton was knocking in the goals for Big Jack, and since Mrs. Doyle was asking "will ya have a cup of tea?". It is not really conceivable that he will lose here, all the more so given the fact that Djokovic's participation is in serious doubt and that he has a couple of easy matches in the opening rounds to help him find his feet here on his favourite surface.
Nadal's first test will be the quarter final where he might drop about six games to baby Fed, before taking on Andy Murray in the semis and probably DelPo in the final.
Murray could have his work cut out just getting out of his quarter. He is a fantastic clay courter in my book and has all the attributes to be extremely successful on this surface. But he is also a notoriously slow starter on this surface and he will have difficult early tests against Monfils and then Almagro before facing the man from Manacor. Murray will be more ready to challenge by the time Roland Garros rolls around.
I am looking towards probably Berdych to come out of the second quarter, playing Gasquet for a spot in the final four. The winner of this will play the winner of quarter one in the semis, and that is where it gets interesting for me. Novak Djokovic will probably play some part in the tournament but I don't believe he is willing to jeopardise his entire clay court season for this one tournament. He is a resident of Monte Carlo and these are pretty much his home courts so I do expect him to play a round or two but I am thinking, does he really need to hustle his way through the draw on a dodgy ankle to take an early loss to Rafa Nadal and give him the momentum he craves in his journey towards Roland Garros in about a month's time? The answer is no. Djokovic needs to tank here after a round or two and prepare properly for Madrid and in particualr for Rome where he can certainly derail the Rafa & Toni express. That would be a more sensible approach and I think he does believe he can beat Rafa at the French. I believe that too but ultimately I don't see Djokovic hanging around here long enough to allow Nadal the chance to dent his belief and confidence on the court where Nadal has played the best tennis of his career.
In fact, the first quarter is by far the most competitive, containing Djokovic, Del Potro, Gulbis, Raonic, Isner, Monaco, and Dolgopolov! Shit be deep!! I know I have been accused of being Gulbis-mad but he can do some damage here too. He hasn't had to play any qualies here thanks to the likes of David Ferrer and Tommy Haas pulling out, and Federer not bothering, but he has been here practising on these courts for over a full week now as he was on Davis Cup duty for Latvia the weekend before last against Monaco in the Monte Carlo Country Club. He easily won his singles rubbers and will be a certain threat to his quarter. His route to the quarter final would be Isner, Monaco, and Djokovic before coming up against Del Potro. The rules of this blog state that I am allowed to dream and so I am enforcing that rule and looking at Gulbis taking out Nole in rd 3.
Some first and second round matches of note now. Take the player in bold to come through each match up below. I will do individual previews the night before each match if it is a recommended bet. Some of the main match ups for tomorrow are: Isner v Gulbis, Monaco v Klizan, Dolgopolov v Del Potro, Tipsarevic v Dimitrov, and Tsonga v Davydenko.
Isner has to be wrecked at this stage having won just 36 hours ago in Houston in the US Men's Clay Court Championships and then flying trans-Atlantic to Monaco with very little rest. Even if he was fully rested I would still take Gulbis here as he is a great match up against Isner. He beat him on grass in Wimbledon and returns big serves very well in general, something which Isner doesn't do. His movement also makes a mockery of Isner's. Take Gulbis at 1.55 here. Isner hasn't a hope.
Elsewhere, Gael Monfils is outstanding value at 1.62 to beat Albert Montanes tomorrow which is one I really fancy. He has taken a WC here and looked great in Texas last week. Gael needs matches under his belt and will be going all out here. Take Dimitrov at 2.15 to beat Janko Tipsarevic - this Serb is not so swell on clay and I think Dimitrov has the all court game on any surface to beat Tipsy. I have been impressed with baby Fed's form of late and fancy him to come through tomorrow.
Recommended bets tomorrow: Gulbis, Monfils, Dimitrov.
Enjoy the tennis.
PS, Rafa is free money @ 1.50 on the exchanges (Betfair)
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