This weekend sees the Davis Cup enter a very exciting phase with the four quarter final ties taking place all over the world. There is probably potential for upsets in all of them, but I will go through each and outline my selections. Note that betting is not yet available on the ties but should be forthcoming within a day or two. Individual match betting will not be up until probably Thursday.
Argentina v France: In this tie, I cannot see past a French win on the red clay of Argentina. The South Americans are without their talisman Juan Martin del Potro, and, as such, they have little chance in my book. The French bring too much talent and flair for the likes of Juan Monaco and Carlos Berlocq to handle. Richard Gasquet and Jo Wilfried Tsonga will beat anyone Argentina throw at them, be it Nalbandian, Berlocq, or the out-of-form Monaco, and, in the doubles, Llodra and Benneteau are too good a pair to lose to any Argentinian combination. I expect France to be very heavy favourites for this one when the odds come out and I think maybe a 4-1 or 5-0 score to France. Expect France to be about 1/3 or 1/4 to win the tie.
Canada v Italy: These are unchartered waters for the Canadians, but they are not without hope. I think Italy will win the tie, but it could be very close. I still think Canada might bring in Jesse Levine for his debut in the red and white at the expense of Dancevic or Pospisil but either way, I think the Italians have too much. Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini will play the singles rubbers for the Italians and both are very capable players. Seppi, in particular is in good form and he is a very hard player to beat. Raonic will be favourite to win both of his singles rubbers but he could lose them just as easily in my book, particularly the Seppi match. Even giving the Candians both points for Raonic, I still can't see them winning the tie. Fognini and Seppi will beat any of the other Canadians and so it comes down to the doubles. I think it will be Nestor/Pospisil v Bollelli/Fognini who are actually a touring pair and so, I give Italy the nod here, probably on a 3-2 scoreline.
USA v Serbia: This is another tie which could easily go either way. The Americans have brought it to Boise, Idaho, to altitude with the hope that the thin air and home crowd will suit their big serving giants John Isner and Sam Querrey. Neither of these guys are going to give Djokovic trouble, but then it gets interesting as both of them are easily capable of beating Victor Troicki. Troicki has fallen a long way since his glorious decisive rubber victory over Mika Llodra to win the Davis Cup in 2011. Nowadays he is somewhat of a tour journeyman and I think he will probably lose both of his singles rubbers here. For some reason, Janko Tipsarevic is not playing Davis Cup this year and if he was, Serbia would be nailed on for the win here. As it stands, the Bryan Bros will take the doubles for the States and so, they only need Isner and Querrey both to beat Troicki to take the tie. Somehow, I am still siding with the Serbs in this one, with the assumption that just maybe Querrey will continue his horrible form and he loses to Troicki, but this one will be a 3-2 scoreline either way. I just about give it to Serbia.
Kazakhstan v Czech Republic: This tie represents the best betting value for me as the home side are already trading at about 6/4 which represents significant value as I think they will get the win. If Tomas Berdych was available for the Czechs I wouldn't even be considering an upset here, but the fact that he has pulled out makes the Czechs very vulnerable in my opinion and I think ultimately they will lose their title here on the indoor clay courts of The Kazakh National Tennis Centre in Astana. Kazakhstan are a very dangerous team at home and Andrei Golubev has an outstanding record in Astana. They also have Mikhail Kukushkin who beat Monfils at the Australian Open a few years ago as some of you will remember. He is a far better player than his ranking suggests, but is on the comeback trail after 2012 surgery. Evgeny Korolev and Juriy Schukin complete the Kazakh quartet. Filling in for Tomas Berdych will be Lukas Rosol. Rosol can be very wild and very tempermental and I think he will probably lose both of his singles rubbers here. I also think Radek Stepanek will lose one of his rubbers too, probably to Golubev, as the veteran Czech does not enjoy this surface and has not been playing recently due to injury. In the doubles, the Czechs will also struggle due to their over-reliance on Berdych, and they will be vulneralbe here too, no matter who they decide to pair with Stepanek. Take the Kazakhs to win this one, maybe 4-1. They are currently 2.50 on Betfair but I son't expect that to last long. Snap it up!
I will do another post before Fridays' matches.
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