Today saw the elimination of this blog's favourite player, Ernests Gulbis, from the Barcelona Banc Sabadel Open at the hands of Milos The Missile Raonic. I must hold the hands up on that one and admit I got it wrong on this occasion. I don't regret going for Gulbis as that was my mindset and I stuck to the gut feeling. I am still surprised that he lost but it seems like it was the right result given the match stats. Having said that, Gulbis did have set pont on his racket in the tie-break to bring it to one set all so who knows what would have happened if he had taken it.
In other action today, apart from the Gulbis match, the blog was a very positive two from three. We recommended Tommy Robredo to beat Tomas Berdych @ a big price of 3.20 which he did. We also plumped for Florian Mayer to beat Victor Hanescu, which he did in straight sets @ another nice 1.90. Troicki, unfortunately, was steam-rolled by Lukas Rosol which was another surprise for me but, all in all, even given the Gulbis result, we have had another pretty decent day.
Moving forward to tomorrow's matches, I think Rafa v Raonic is certainly the highlight and it actually holds a slight amount of value. Even though I am not a Raonic fan, I have to say he has been very impressive this week while Rafa has been only so-so by his lofty standards. While I think Nadal will win for sure, I think there is a good chance Raonic gets a set and this is worth a bet @ about 4/1 or 9/2 on the exchanges. You can back Rafa to win 2 sets to 1 @ about 5.50 on Betfair and that is my recommendation for that match. Nadal is definitely not the best returner of serve in world tennis and he faces the best server in world tennis here. Raonic will use his main weapon to stay in the match. Expect Nadal to be camped about ten feet behind the baseline for the majority of this one. Once it gets to a tie-break, Raonic would fancy his chances, even against Nadal on clay. It is certainly worth a small bet for the giant Canadian import to get a set. Almagro will beat Kohlschreiber in the other semi - there is nothing to see there.
Turning our attention to Bucharest, play begins with Lukas Rosol taking on Gilles Simon. I can't see anything but a rather facile win for the Frenchman here. I think he will be a nightmare match-up for Rosol with his defensive, brick-wall style of play. Simon is a bit short priced for me @ 1.40 - unless you have a lot of money to bet with! In the other semi, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez has shown a welcome return to form and takes on Florian Mayer. That will be a good match. I like GGL's game but I think Mayer will come through in that one, probably in three sets. Again, the SP looks a tad short @ 1.62 but maybe take him in play at closer to 1.80 or so. Simon and Mayer to come out on top in Romania.
Enjoy your Saturday tennis! :)
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