So, here we have it. The men's draw for the 2013 French Open. First of all, let me say that it is refreshing to see that Rafa and Nole weren't 'kept apart' as was the thinking of quite a few sceptical tennis fans, myself included. While the world (and the organisers) won't get the Rafa v Nole final they all want to see, there is now a HUGE opportunity for so many guys in the bottom half to make the run of a lifetime all the way to a grand slam final.
Robin Soderling is the only guy to have made finals here, losing on two occasions - once to Roger, once to Rafa. Apart from the Swede, only Rafa, Roger, and Novak have been in finals here in recent years. It is almost guaranteed that either Rafa or Novak will be in the final again this year. But, having both been drawn in the top half of the draw, the question is, who will they meet in the final?
I am going to go through the draw quarter by quarter and give my thoughts on what the QF, SF, and final line ups will be. Here goes:
Q1: This quarter sees the world number one Novak Djokovic along with several tough opponents and some great potential match ups. Djokovic's biggest threat will, no doubt, come from the Bulgarian prodigy that is Grigor Dimitrov. Dimitrov has been majestic this year and, as we all know, he beat Nole in Madrid. When Toni Nadal was asked recently about his list of favourites for this tournament, Dimitrov's name was a forerunner. He has all the weaponry required, but, I think over five sets he is more likely to break down physically than Novak or the other top guys, and, for that reason, I would still fancy Nole to come past him, but it will be the tie of the third round for sure. Tommy Haas, another of Nole's conquerors in 2013 is also housed in this section, but to be honest I don't see him being a factor at this tournament. John Isner, Pablo Andujar, Fernando Verdasco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Alexandr Dolgopolov are other big names or form players in Q1, but, the smart money is surely on Novak Djokovic emerging and taking hjis place in the semi final. In the quarter final, I see Nole having to overcome one of Andujar, Haas, or Isner, depending on who shows up most of those three. I think Isner has the biggest say, in terms of the match being on his racket, but Andujar has shown the best clay court tennis of the three in recent weeks and it is not beyond comprehension that he could make the QF here. Djokovic to progress with only Dimitrov testing him properly.
Q2: Nadal will be very happy with his quarter, as there is pretty much nobody in there who can beat him. He will be annoyed at being in Nole's half of the draw, but, to win these titles, one must beat the best players anyway, so perhaps it is irrelevant at what stage he meets the Serb. Nadal's route out of this quarter is likely to be: Brands, Klizan, Fognini, Paire, and Wawrinka. Of those, I think Benoit Paire will give him the most bother, mainly due to his super backhand, which is so important to have against the left-handed Nadal. Wawrinka is the most talented in this section, apart from Nadal of course, but Nadal tends to have a very easy time against him, as we saw in the final of Madrid in the Magic Box. Other big names in this quarter include Nishikori, Janowicz, and Gasquet, but I think the QF line up from this one will be Rafa v Wawrinka. Expect Rafa to come through without the loss of a set.
Q3: The one hope I had before the draw was made was that Ernests Gulbis would somehow avoid Rafa and Nole, which I though would be extremely unlikely. However, the tennis Gods were on my side yesterday and so the wish has been granted. Gulbis is drawn in the bottom half, and so, he has a super chance to make a run to the final here. I can see he still has a very tough draw, but he is now one of maybe six guys who will have their hopes fixed firmly on a final appearance Sunday week. David Ferrer is the top seed in this quarter, and the favourite to make it through to the semis. This third quarter is between Gulbis, Berdych, Almagro and Ferrer. I am going to rule out Almagro as I have been far from impressed with his tennis this season. Berdych has been the most unlucky player in the draw, with a first round tie against Gael Monfils followed by another Grand Slam match up against Ernests Gulbis! And we all know how the last one ended. I think Ferrer will make the quarters for sure. He will have to overcome the winner of Raonic v Anderson but that will be his only test en route to the quarters. Who he will meet there, however, is what I am more interetsed in. I think Berdych will beat Monfils in the tie of the first round. Then, I think Gulbis will beat Berdych in the tie of the second round! Gulbis has been in super form this season and I think all knowledgable tennis fans will admit that his display against Nadal in Rome pushed the Spaniard to the pin of his collar. Berdych could not come close to that in the semi final. Gulbis will not be one bit afraid of Berdych and I will take my man to progress there. Should Gulbis come through that match, his route to a QF with Ferrer will be Tommy Robredo followed by Nico Almagro. Gulbis hits a better ball that either of those two Spaniards and I think Ernie will reach the quarters against Ferrer. At that stage, it will be a battle between the only two guys (apart from Nole) who have tested Rafa this year on clay. To be honest, I would rather if Gulbis was drawn to meet Federer rather than Ferrer at this stage but I still think he is capable of beating the Spanish number 2. I know that Federer would much rather face Ferrer in a semi final than Gulbis, so take that as an indication of Gulbis' level. I am going out on a limb and taking Gulbis to come out of this quarter after a titanic QF match agianst David Ferrer.
Q4: This quarter has been absolutely set up for Federer. It is a dream draw for him. The only half threat he will face en route to the QF will be Julien Benneteau, who has a decent record against the Swiss, but who is pretty much rubbish on clay. I expect big Jo Tsonga to meet Federer in the quarters, with probably Federer coming through. If it was on grass I would give Tsonga a much better chance but I think Federer will beat him on clay and I am going for Federer to take his place in the semis against (hopefully) Gulbis.
Semi finals: So, I have Rafa v Nole in semi final one, as I'm sure everyone in the world of tennis has as well. It will be an unbelievable match, and the winner will be a massive favourite to claim the title on the Sunday. I think that Djokovic can beat Rafa for sure. The smart money is on Nadal, as the odds are in his favour. He hasn't lost since 2009 here, has won the title here seven times, and is in great form. Should this match up materialise, I will do a more thorough analysis of it then, but for now, suffice it to say that one of these guys, and more than likely Rafa will be in the final.
The second semi is where my interest lies. I have Federer coming up agianst Ernests Gulbis. And I think if that match up does happen then I think Gulbis wins. I actually think that if Federer makes the semis here and plays either Gulbis or Ferrer, he would lose to either of them. I think those two guys have shown far more on red dirt this season than Federer has. Federer is Federer after all, but I think he is still getting too much praise and that his odds are too short at times, just because of what he has done in the past. Federer is not the same player anymore, he is in decline, and I will be opposing him in the semis if he comes up against Ferrer or Gulbis. It is a bit of a dream perhaps, but I have a Nadal - Gulbis final in my draw! Nadal would have to be heavily favoured if it came down to that, but let's take things one step at a time here. Gulbis has a shot. He avoided the big two. Ferrer has a shot. He's another guy who avoided the big two. One of them will take advantage of it and make the final here. Unless Djokovic can upset the odds, then Rafa will win it, I am pretty sure of that.
My two recommended outright bets are Gulbis @ 100.00 on the exchanges to lay off were he to make a final. I actually recommended backing Gulbis last week when he was availbable @ 180.00. Not anymore!!
David Ferrer can be had @ 26.00 also on Betfair which is good value too as his route to the quarters at least is pretty much assured. There is nobody else I really like in the outright market. Enjoy the tennis. I am going to do a seperate post with first round picks after this one. Hope you enjoyed the draw analysis! Feel free to leave any thoughts or comments below! Over and out :)
No comments:
Post a Comment