Nadal got the job done in easy straights against Wawrinka today in the Madrid final. It looked like just one step too far for Stan after such a lot of tennis lately.
Anyway, I'm looking at Rome now and leaving Madrid firmly in the rear-view mirror! An important thing to note about Rome is that the surface is quite a lot slower than Madrid and there is no altitude so it should suit the more traditional clay courters out there and we need to factor that into our thinking this week. Anyway, here is my breakdown of the Rome draw by quarter:
Q1: Djokovic finds himself in another tough quarter here. A lot of the talent in Rome this year can be found in the top half of the draw and this quarter is a tricky assignment in itself. Nole is joined here by other big names such as Berdych, Cilic, Wawrinka, Dolgopolov, and Anderson. In a way, this is the perfect quarter for Wawrinka who needs an early loss, if you know what I mean. Having played through the Portugal draw and then right through to the final of the Madrid draw, he needs a rest before RG! Djokovic will come out of this quarter and take his place in the SF. Along the way, he will need to beat Klizan, Dolgopolov, and Berdych, but Nole has arrived here very early, courtesy of his early loss in Madrid and I think he is ready to go all the way here. There is potential for Carlos Berlocq to take out Wawrinka and I will be keeping a close eye on the betting for that one, just because Stan needs a rest, but if not, then I think Dolgopolov will take care of him in the second round instead.
Q2: Surprise surprise, Nadal, the fifth seed, has landed in Ferrer's quarter again. There are suggestions that a lot of these draws are rigged by tournament organisers and, having been drawn in Ferrer's quarter for the second straight week, maybe some of the conspiracy theories are right! Keep an eye on that in the French. Anyway, this is an horrific quarter in terms of depth and not the best one for my man Ernests to get dropped into as a qualifier! I was hoping he would end up in the bottom half but, alas, not to be and here he is in Q2. Nadal will emerge from this quarter and along the way, I see him taking out Seppi, Gulbis, and Ferrer. Ferrer will have to get through Verdasco and Raonic to make the QF but I have no doubt that he will. Gulbis meets Jarrko Nieminen first up, and then Finn must be cursing his luck as it is their second meeting this season having played rd 1 in Monte-Carlo as well. His record as atrocious against Gulbis. Ernie then meets the winner of the all Serbian clash of Tipsy v Troicki which is not as clear cut as it seems. Either way, I will have Gulbis to come through either of those with ease to earn his meeting with Rafa. One of the standout matches of the first rd here is Seppi - Fognini which happened in Monte-Carlo too! Anyway, take Rafa to emerge, dropping a set to Gulbis along the way.
Q3: This is the quarter you want to be in! Not only is it the best half to be in, avoiding Rafa and Nole, but it avoids Ferrer too and Murray has really landed on his feet here. Andy is joined in this quarter by Del Potro who is on his way back from injury, Juan Monaco, Nicolas Almagro, and Kei Nishikori. I think Murray has been progressing nicely, and I think he is going to come through this quarter. Murray's route to the SF would likely be Granollers, followed by Nishikori, followed by Almagro. He wins those three matches, he makes the semis. Simple as that. I would be very confident as a Murray fan that he can have a great tournament here. The draw has been very kind to him and indeed he has played some of his best ever clay court tennis at this venue. I recall his epic SF match v Djokovic when Murray served for the match in the third set playing some scintillating tennis along the way. Del Potro will struggle and I think will lose early doors. Monaco can always be very dangerous on this surface, ditto Almagro, but I think Murray can cope with any of them.
Q4: Roger Federer finds himself at the bottom of the draw here in what is actually a pretty tough quarter. He was pretty bad last week and I am not convinced that he will turn it around here. He will play either Potito Starace or Radek Stepanek first up, followed by Tommy Haas, followed by Dimitrov, Tsonga, or Gasquet. That particular section of this quarter is so insanely tough! In that little one eighth section, we can find Tsonga, Janowicz, Giraldo, Baghdatis, Dimitrov, Querrey, and Gasquet! Tough to call. If I am being bold, I will go for Tsonga or Dimitrov to meet Federer in this QF. WOuldn't it be awesome to have a Federer v Dimitrov QF!? Going to take either Jo or Dimitrov to come through here to meet Murray in the SF!
So, having looked at the draw, I think it is obvious that Q3 is the place to be, and that the bottom half is kinder than the top! My SF match ups look like Nole v Rafa for sure, and then Murray v Tsonga/Dimitrov at the bottom. Maybe Federer will come through but he would have to improve an awful lot on last week. So, I think in those semi match ups, that Djokovic will beat Rafa again, and that Murray will find a way into the final. Nole is very motivated for this week, and the last thing he wants to do is to give any little psychological advantage to Rafa in the lead up to the French. I see a Nole v Murray final, with Nole probably winning, but, when those two collide, anything is possible. For me, given my prediction of the draw panning out that way, I see Andy Murray as the standout value outright bet @ 20.00 on the exchanges. If he was to make a final against Nole, he would likely be 3.50 or something and that would be a very nice trade. Djokovic is 3.25 on the exchanges but I fail to see any value in it given his route to the final and I would advise staying away from him and Nadal in the outright betting. I will be backing Murray and laying it off when he gets to the final. If he plays like he has done here in the past, his level will be more than good enought to make the final. Murray @ 20s is the bet. (For the more adventurous out there, you could do worse than have a few pound on Dimitrov @ 100 on Betfair but it's not for me.)
Finally, looking at the individual matches for Monday, there are three or four matches that interest me betting-wise. Firstly, we have a re-match of the Klizan v Montanes match from Monte-Carlo, which Klizan won quite convincingly. He is available tomorrow @ 1.95 to beat Montanes again and that is a recommended bet. The other matches that interest me are Seppi v Fognini, Giraldo v Janowicz, and Stepanek v Starace. In the Seppi - Fognini match, we have two close friends meeting in the first round of their home tournament, which will be a massive one for the fans. I actually think Seppi is going to upset the odds here and reverse the result of the Monte-Carlo match. Fognini is more of a shot-maker, and, while he is very very adept on clay, I think Seppi is the more solid of the two and has improved on this surface over the past few weeks since their last meeting. The head to head favours Seppi 4-2 and he is available @ 2.30 which is a very nice price in my book. Seppi is certainly a recommended bet and I fancy the level head to win out over the flair!
Santiago Giraldo comes up against the giant JJ in a tough one to call. Giraldo, without doubt, is more of a clay courter, but JJ is tough to call. He has improved a lot and is difficult to break. Giraldo is 2.2 with JJ @ 1.80. I am not going to make a recommendation on this match, given how tight I see it. IF someone forced me to have a bet on it, I would go for Giraldo, but that's not a recommended bet and it will be a very close match. Elsewhere tomorrow, expect wins for Monaco, Ramos, Kuznetsov, Cilic, Gulbis, Raonic (another tight one), and Nishikori. One other match to keep your eye on tomorrow is Potito Starace v Radek Stepanek. Starace is Italian, and is a clay court specialist, much unlike Stepanek. Starace will be very much up for this one having received a wild card, and he has been playing lots of smaller challenger tournaments to get himself ready for this one. He won one in Naples at the end of April beating some very nice players along the way. I have a feeling he could upset the odds and get through here and I am actually going to make him a recommendation @ 2.90.
Enjoy tomorrow's tennis! Until then, over and out :)
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