Rome Tuesday

If I try to cover over the cracks of today's blog picks, I could argue that we came out of the day with a profit, if you backed all three selections for the same stake. Starace beat Stepanek as predicted @ 3.30 SP, before Seppi lost in easy straights to Fognini, and Klizan lost in three to Montanes after winning the first set. But that would be sugar-coating things and, at the end of the day, a 33% strike rate for the day is not exactly what we are after! Personally, Kohlschreiber made it quite a good day for me and helped to finish well in the green, by taking care of Milos Raonic @ 2.50. I wasn't really considering that match before it began as I don't like backing against Raonic, but Kohlschreiber looked very good in the early exchanges so I backed him. Given Raonic's less-than impressive history on clay, and the fact that he has just split with his coach, it made Kohly a very viable bet and he duly delivered.

Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, here are my thoughts on selected matches:

Chardy v Lopez: I like Chardy to win this one. He is far better on clay than Feliciano Lopez and seems to be coming into good form again. This will be an important tournament for him as he is a player who will have aspirations of a good run at the French, unlike Lopez. Lopez lost first round in Madrid last week to Gimeno-Traver and this surface will be much less suited to his game than Madrid would have been. Take Chardy @ 1.70

Dimitrov v Gasquet: Not a match I will be going big stakes on, but I am finding it hard to see Dimitrov as the underdog here. I think he has been in far far more impressive form than Gasquet, and even though he has never beaten the Frenchman, I would take him to win tomorrow @ 2.28. Expect a fantastic clash with some great shot-making but I am going for Baby-Fed to come through.

Rosol v Troicki: Rosol has beaten Troicki on the last three occasion they met, all on clay, and is available @ 1.96 on Betfair. I am going for Rosol here. He is only in as a lucky loser but has played two or three matches on these courts already this week and that should give  him another advantage. Rosol for the win @ 1.96. Don't expect that price to last long.

Kuznetsov v Del Potro: this is a value choice for me. Del Potro hasn't played tennis since his loss to Nadal in the IW final. He has been nursing an injury at home in Argentina, and comes up against a player here who is capable of playing very aggressive all court tennis. Kuznetsov is a player in form and is worth a small bet @ 6.40. I expect him to test Del Po and possibly snatch an unlikely win.

In the other matches tomorrow, I expect wins for Murray, Haas, Verdasco, Simon, Cilic, Almagro, Berdych, and Federer. One last match of interest apart from the four above, is Wawrinka v Berlocq.
If Berlocq was longer than the 3.00 available, I would definitely recommend him, but it is a hard one to call. If Stan shows up, he wins, simple as that. But he has had a long two weeks and needs a rest now. Berlocq has played a few qualifying matches on these courts and will be confident of springing a surprise. I may yet back the Argentine @ 3.00 and he is certainly on worth considering for the upset win tomorrow. Having said that, if Stan wants to win he will and any Berlocq backers will be made look very silly indeed! Keep it in mind is the best advice I have for this one!

Until tomorrow, enjoy the tennis! :)

PS, have been looking at the draw again, and I am even more convinced Andy Murray is going to the final here. He is 25.00 on Betfair and I think that is MASSIVE value. He will be a huge lay in the final for green all round so go for it! :)