Tuesday at the Internazionali BNL dItalia 2013 was another mixed day. Chardy got things off to a good start by beating Lopez in three sets and Rosol looked set to continue the trend when he went a set up on Troicki. The inconsistent Czech went on to lose though, and was promptly followed out of the tournament by Grigor Dimitrov who lost to Gasquet, and Kuznetsov who got schooled by Del Po. I have no problem with the Kuznetsov bet - that was only ever a small, value stake in case Del Po was rusty! But the others are a little disappointing to say the least!
Looking ahead to tomorrow's tennis, here are my thoughts on selected matches as ever:
Paire v Benneteau: this will be an interesting match! Paire has looked good lately, putting a stern test up to Nadal in Madrid before knocking out Juan Monaco in the first round here. Benneteau, who I would never have seen as a clay court player beat Nico Almagro in straight sets today in what might go down as the upset of the round. Despite Benneteau's win over Almagro, I am going to side with Paire here. He has impressed me lately and Nadal actually said after their Madrid match last week that Paire's backhand is "one of the best on the circuit for sure". I think he is more suited to clay than Benneteau, and I am going to recommend him for the win @ 1.91 on Betfair.
Dolgopolov v Wawrinka: This time I am pretty sure Stan is going out. I didn't back him against Berlocq today and was almost left red-faced as the Argentine went a set up. But Stan didn't throw in the towel and his class shone through in the end. I did think Stan looked tired though and I am confident that Dolgopolov will be the man to give him a rest! Dolgopolov is a proper clay court player, his drop shot is exquisite and his serve and groundies are among the best when he is on form. I think he will give Stan too much to handle tomorrow, given Wawa's recent exertions and I am recommending The Dog @ 2.32 on the exchanges. (note he started off @ 2.62 a few hours ago so get the money down!)
Chardy v Nishikori: At first glance you would say Nishikori will win this one, but when you look at it again, it might not be as clear cut as one would think. Chardy is an excellent clay court player. I am not doubting that Nishikori has been impressive the last week or ten days. In his first few matches in Madrid he was phenomenal, but he was absolutely abysmal in his QF loss to Pablo Andujar. Chardy is a better tennis player than Pablo Andujar and has been known to rise to the big occasion in the past. I am recommending a bet for small stakes on Chardy @ 3.00 on Betfair.
Youzhny v Simon: I am a big fan of Mikhail Youzhny and his brand of tennis, but I think Simon is worth a bet here. The Frenchman has a bad record overall against the Russian. He trails 7-2, but, most importantly, he has won their previous 2 encounters, and has won their only ever match on clay. I would have thought Simon's record would be better against Youzhny given their stlyes of play. Youzhny is all-out aggression which suits Simon's defensive game. On clay, The General won't get rewarded as much for his aggression and willingness to go for the lines and my money is on Simon to frustrate him @ 2.26.
In other matches tomorrow, I can see wins for Berdych, Tsonga, Murray, Kohlschreiber, Ferrer, Gulbis, and Nadal. Just a point of note on the Nadal match: while I don't recommend a bet on Fognini to beat him, I am amazed that he is available @ 23.00 on Betfair. That is an insult! Fognini is the exact player Nadal would like to avoid playing in Rome! I can see Fognini being unbelievably motivated for this one and I think he might actually get a set. I am going to back and recommend Nadal to win 2-1 @ 8.00 and I would go for Fognini with the handicap if you can get +6.50 as I think this will be a close match.
Finallly, Murray has shortened slightly to 21.00 for the outright market and I am still recommending that you build up your stake on him at those odds. If he gets through Granollers and Nishikori /Chardy, he is in the QF. He would beat Del Po in my opinion and I can see him beating Federer or Tsonga too. Wouldn't it be a nice lay if he was 3.50 in the final!?
Enjoy the tennis. Over and out! :)
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