Wednesday at the Internazionali BNL dItalia was exactly the sort of day we needed and the sort of day that makes the blog seem worthwhile! Beginning with the only negative of the day, Andy Murray, who was a 25/1 value recommendation in the outright market pulled out of the tournament with a lower back injury at one set all with Marcel Granollers. Murray was struggling all match and his participation in Roland Garros is now in doubt also.
Thankfully though, that was only a small blotch on an otherwise perfect card today. Benoit Paire beat Julien Benneteau in another high-tension all-French affair, 7-6 in the third set. We recommeded Paire in yesterday's blog entry @ 1.91 and he got the job done in the end. I heard there were some words spoken at the handshake but I haven't seen anything yet - hopefully there will be something up on Youtube later! Next up, Jeremy Chardy beat Kei Nishikori as recommended @ a whopping 3.00. He whupped Kei in straight sets and showed how dangerous he can be on this surface. That was followed by Gilles Simon taking out The General, Mikhail Youzhny also as predicted. Simon can be so hard to beat and, even though he trailed 2-7 in their head to head, I was confident he would get the job done on this surface. The only regret of the day was that Wawrinka didn't take the court against Dolgopolov. I knew Stan was tired and The Dog would have beaten him for sure as it more than likely would have been a Swiss tank-job. Anyway, It was a great day and a 100% strike rate which is exactly what we are after, even if it is not always achievable!
Looking forward to tomorrow's tennis, there are several matches that really excite me, but there is only one match I will be having a bet on with a possible set-betting option on another.
Tomorrow, I expect wins for each of Berdych, Djokovic, Del Potro, Chardy, Ferrer, Gasquet, and Nadal. But I won't be having a pre-match bet on any of those. I might get involved in-running if the opportunity arises but the SP's don't really attract me for any of them. I was going to recommend Chardy @ 1.70 and am still close to backing him at those odds but Granollers can be difficult as we saw today, so I will avoid it for the time being.
The one match where I will recommend a bet might come as a surprise to some people. I am going to recommend Gilles Simon to beat Roger Federer. Simon has given Federer plenty of trouble in the past. Their head to head is tied @ 2-2, and all of those have been on hard courts. This surface should work more to the advantage of Simon, given the extra time he will have to chase down Federer's shots. Simon is a counter-puncher to the core, and, even though Federer was exquisite against Starace, he is still vulnerable. If we go back just one week, he was brutal against Nishikori in Madrid. I think Simon can frustrate Federer, much like he did with Murray in Madrid last week. Simon makes very few mistakes and misses very few balls. Another advantage for the Frenchman is that this is a night-time match, meaning conditions will be even slower, which plays even more into Simon's hands. Unless Federer is at the very top of his game, or pretty close to it, he will get beaten here. Simon is available @ 5.60 on the exchanges which is a massive price. Even if you back him and he goes a set up, you will have a chance to trade out if you feel the need at something close enough to even money or slightly odds against. I think it is great value and one which I will be gladly taking. Keep an eye on the match in play and trade as the opportunity arises.
Finally, in what is the most exciting match of the day from my point of view, I think Gulbis and Rafa are going to play out an epic. Unlike Fabio Fognini, who was pathetic today, Ernests Gulbis believes he belongs on court with Rafa Nadal and he will go toe to toe with the man from Manacor. Gulbis was unlucky not to beat Nadal in Indian Wells in March having been a set up, and he also ran Nadal to a very close three sets in this exact venue in 2010. Gulbis will bring manic aggression, his backhand is solid as a rock, which is what one needs against Rafa Nadal, and, if he serves big he even has a chance for the upset win @ 11.00. That is not a recommendation however, but you can back Rafa to win 2-1 @ 5.50 on Betfair and that is a recommended bet. I cannot wait for the match and I hope it delivers what it promises.
Enjoy the tennis and talk tomorrow. Over and out :)
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