Madrid was a good day today. I hadn't looked too much into the possibility of Mikhail Youzhny beating Nicolas Almagro until I was watching the match and realised that Youzhny had a 4-0 head to head advantage over Almagro before today's match. So, I got on Youzhny when he was down a break in the first set @ 10/1 which was a fantastic price. Unfortunately, I layed it off when The General went up a break at the beginning of the third but it saved me some nerve-wracking moments (and some grey hair) later on in the match and still got me pleny of profit for the day which is exactly what I needed after the last few days we've had. I think it came down to the mental side of things more than the actual tennis and Almagro can be found wanting in that department quite often. I actually LOVE the General's salute to the four corners of the stadium at the end of each victory. He does that in memory of his late father and there is no finer sight in tennis in my book! The other matches today all went the way I thought, with the exception of Juan Monaco's loss to Kevin Anderson from a very good position in the third set.
Looking forward to tomorrow's action in La Caja Magica, there are some matches which are hard to call. Indeed, I would love to back some of the matches which I think represent a bit of value, but something is telling me not to do it! Tommy Haas v David Ferrer is the match I am most referring to. I think Haas is playing close to his best ever tennis. He won last week in Munich, and these courts here would be more beneficial to his game than they would to Ferrer's. They are at altitude and are slightly faster than traditional clay which plays more to the strengths of Haas. Haas is available @ 2.70 on the exchanges but his head to head is a poor one against Ferrer: 0-3 in favour of the Spaniard. Overall, I am not going to recommend Haas, but it is one I will be keeping a close eye on and if I think he is looking like a win, then I will get involved in play, as indeed you should too!
Daniel Gimeno-Traver v Pablo Andujar is another match I am interested in tomorrow. Gimeno-Traver beat Richard Gasquet in the last round and has been playing some great stuff. I think he is a stronger player mentally than Andujar, and I am going to recommend him @ 2.34, even though he has a poor record against Andujar. Take DGT to come through here. I think Andujar cannot be depended upon under pressure, and if DGT can hit through Dicky Gasquet, he can win this one too. His season has been good so far and I will back him to go one further tomorrow.
Murray will beat Simon for sure, Rafa will beat Youzhny, and Berdych will beat Anderson. That leaves three more matches to look at. Firstly, I think Federer will beat Kei, but I think it will be close. Kei has been hitting the ball better than ever on clay this week, he will have a good match with Roger, but regardless of Nishikori's form, I will take the Great Man to come through maybe 7-6, 6-4 or something like that.
Despite my constant mocking and rollicking of Fernando Verdasco, I actually think he represents good value tomorrow. I think ultimately Big Jo will probably win, but I think it will be very close. All their previous matches have been very close affairs, and I think Verdasco plays his best tennis here - no doubt about that. He is a Madrid boy and has lots of fans in these parts. He is far more suited to clay than Jo is and I think 3.30 on Betfair is too big for Verdasco. I would actually recommend to take him on that those prices and then lay off some of the risk later on in the match. I could see this one going to a third set, and maybe even a third set breaker. Take Verdasco @ 3.30 and lay it off later on.
Finally, the match of the day tomorrow evening, is the contest between two of the hottest properties in tennis at the moment. The new buck on the block, Grigor Dimitrov, takes on the wily old vet Stan Wawrinka. Wawrinka is coming off a title in Portugal last week while Dimi is coming off the greatest win of his life over Nole on Tuesday night. This will be a cracker, I am convinced of it. To be honest, I like Wawrinka for the win in this one. I don't think Dimitrov's level is going to drop or anything like that, but Stan can play tennis at the very very highest level. He hasn't shown any hangover since his demolition job of Ferrer in the Portugal final. He annihilated Santiago Giraldo today in a very professional display and I think we are in for a real treat tomorrow evening. Expect lots of top quality rallies, expect lots of backhand to backhand exchanges, expect plenty of forehand winners, and expect some deft play at the net to go with the inevitable big serving that both players are capable of. Stan is my favourite to win this match, he is available at about 1.74 now and will be about 1.80 closer to the match. Take Wawrinka for the win, more than likely in three sets.
Enjoy the bumper day of tennis tomorrow. Over & out. :)
PS don't watch the women's - it's pathetic!! Robson and Ivanovic tonight was the greatest choke-fest I have EVER seen!! MensTennisForLife! :)
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